Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll continues its recent volatile form to deliver the Coalition its best result since September.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian gives the Coalition its best result since September, with Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 comparing with 55-45 last time. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 41%, Labor is down two to 37%, and the Greens are down one to 11%. Amid a general picture of weakening personal ratings for Bill Shorten, Newspoll has him down three on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 47% after a spike in his favour a fortnight ago. Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down two to 61% – dismal as those figures are, they’re his best since Australia Day. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has closed from 44-33 to 41-36.

Also today, Morgan’s latest poll combining face-to-face and SMS polling from the past two weekends has Labor up on last fortnight and level with the fortnight before, leaving the intervening poll looking like something of an aberration. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% with the Coalition down one to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point to 11% and 1.5%. There’s a big shift to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, their lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 56-44, but a surprisingly modest one on previous election preferences, from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46, some of the difference evidently being obscured by rounding.

UPDATE (Essential Research): To reinforce the point that polling moves in mysterious ways, the normally sedate Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has moved two points to Labor, putting its lead at 54-46. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 41%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down to an all-time low of 1%. The poll also finds a big downturn in the assessment of Joe Hockey’s performance as Treasurer even since the months after the budget, with approval at 27% (down eight points since August) and disapproval at 51% (up seven). Chris Bowen has all but caught up with him as preferred Treasurer, Hockey’s 34-23 lead in August now at 26-25. Relatedly, there is a poor result on economic sentiment, with 27% describing the state of the Australian economy as good (down 10% since last August) and 33% as poor (up 7%).

A question on data retention suggests dissatisfaction with the protections provided in the government’s policy, with 58% believing a warrant should be required to access data in any case, only 10% considering it should only apply to journalists and 12% believing no warrant should be required. Also featured are a semi-regular question on climate change, thought to be caused by human activity by 54% (down three since December) with 31% favouring the skeptical option (up two); 52% professing greater concern than two years ago (up one) with 8% less concerned (down one); 45% favouring incentives for renewable energy in response (up five since September), 12% an emissions trading scheme (up two), 10% the government’s direct action policy (steady) and 11% believing no action is required (steady). The 20% renewable energy target is thought too high by 8% (down five since last July), too low by 33% (up four) and about right by 32% (down four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,293 thoughts on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. “one of labor’s brightest minds”?

    Perhaps Tony could ask Martin to be Treasurer, then.
    (I needed a laugh, but really!!)

  9. Perhaps Newspolls all-over-the-place fortnightly findings are due to the organisations reliance on landlines. This must make it very difficult to reach the cross-sections of the community they require. Many of the 18-35 group they get are probably those that still live at home with their aging parents. Only the older generations are holding on to landlines, and even they are ditching them at an increasing rate, apparently.

    From ACMA report for 2013-14 (it will probably be less favourable to landlines now in 2015):

    “The most interesting finding is that almost three -quarters of Australian households (73 per cent in fact) still have a landline – down 2 per cent on the previous year. While the trend suggests that landline usage will continue to decline in coming years, the slide is not yet alarming. And if you tried to imagine a cost-effective, geographically precise way of randomly reaching three-quarters of the country’s households, phone would still be the answer…
    …However it’s obviously not all sunshine and roses for fixed line researchers. In particular, over half of all 25-34 year olds now live in a mobile-only household. That makes reaching this group by fixed line phone an increasingly complex and expensive task. This will in turn require innovative solutions, and possible some mixed-method surveys to accommodate this age group.”

  10. Re Newspoll, I drove to work this morning (which I hardly ever do) and listened to commercial radio, and it wasn’t mentioned at all in the news bulletins on the couple of stations I flicked between. What was talked about was the Herald Sun story (am in melb) re TA using his private jet to go to some lib donor birthday party. There was a lot of fun made, basically ridiculing him. And this is what the majority would hear. Commercial radio usually just follows what is popular, obviously making fun of TA is very popular!

  11. vk

    I heard the abbott story on SEN this morning. I only started listening to ABC774 after 9 am and have heard nothing about it.
    Were you listening to MMM?

  12. This is what I meant by the Daily Bizarro touting Baird as an odds-on winner, London-To-A-Brick, dead cert.

    He’s won even before they’ve had the election.

    NSW state election 2015: Sportsbet pays out on Coalition win days before state election
    SORRY Labor. Sorry Luke Foley. Your chances of winning Saturday’s state poll are so slim online bookmaker Sportsbet has already declared a Coalition win and paid out lucky punters.

    It is still four days from the March 28 election but sportsbet.com.au has confidently declared the election over, paying out a Mike Baird win before voters have even had a chance to cast a vote.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-state-election-2015-sportsbet-pays-out-on-coalition-win-days-before-state-election/story-fnrskx7r-1227275722249

    The Tele is obviously going for the “bandwagon effect”, but if I was a voter (and I am, actually), I’d be a little insulted at all this pre-poll triumphalism.

    If Baird’s already as good as victorious, a protest vote for Labor couldn’t possibly do him any harm, now, could it?

  13. shellbell

    Because it is only 10,500km from Tristan to Perth.

    The next shortest distance is Tristan to Hobart – around 10,700km.

  15. Rueters –

    Russia threatened to aim nuclear missiles at Danish warships if Denmark joins NATO’s missile defense system, in comments Copenhagen called unacceptable and NATO said would not contribute to peace.

    Denmark said in August it would contribute radar capacity on some of its warships to the missile shield, which the Western alliance says is designed to protect members from missile launches from countries like Iran.

    …

    Meanwhile, Russian nuclear subs have apparently been busy cruising around the UK and may have inadvertently become ensnared on one Angus Macleod’s fishing nets. Here’s more from the DailyMail:

    …A fisherman told last night about the one that got away – a suspected Russian submarine which became entangled in his nets after it strayed inside British waters in the North Sea.

    Angus Macleod, 46, was fishing for haddock and skate when he became convinced that a hostile vessel was caught up below his boat Aquarius.

    The submarine attempted to free itself , taking the 65ft vessel and his two-ton catch with it.

    ‘Had the submarine headed for deeper waters we might have sunk with it, but I don’t want to dwell on that.

    ‘We were eventually cut loose when the 150ft-long dog rope, which attaches the nets to the ship, wrapped itself around Aquarius’s propeller and got ripped apart. We were then able to sail back to port.’

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-23/russian-sub-caught-uk-fisherman-after-moscow-threatens-nuke-denmark

  16. Too many people are dissing Newspoll because they don’t like the current result. Mistake. They actually try quite hard to get the right result and put a lot of work into getting the demographics right. We like Morgan because it has a more likeable (for most PBs) result.

    The real issue, as it almost always is with opinion polls, is the question. Newspoll and Essential (and I presume the others all ask the same question:

    If the federal election for the House of Representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If uncommitted, to which one of these do you have a leaning?

    It’s the wrong question. It’s a hypothetical. And it invites the respondents to hypothesise beyond the intention of the pollster. My guess – and it is a pure guess based only on the gap between Abbott’s personal rating and his party’s – is that a significant number of respondents are factoring in the expectation that Abbott will be gone by the next election.

    The real question that should be asked is:

    The next election is due in the second half of 2016. Who do you expect to vote for at that time?

    For good measure respondents should be asked whether they would vote differently if the Coalition was led by Tony Abbott at that election.

    I think the overall leavening of results does reflect on an unwillingness to give Bill Shorten a free pass to Government, like they gave Abbott. But, as I’ve said numerous times here, I don’t expect Shorten or Labor to expect to get a free pass either.

    Unlike Abbott’s ‘you will see our policies in good time before the election’ comment that was challenged by nobody, Labor actually has a program to publicly develop and release policies in the second half of the electoral cycle. What is more, it needs to. To get the support of a cross-bench Senate and the generaI public it needs to be able to point to specific policies which it took to the election and claim the mandate to implement them.

    Bottom line is that much water is yet to flow and there will be a big release of said water in about May this year.

  17. William, am curious how you weight individual poll companies these days. For instance, mainstream media gives all credence to Newspoll and dismisses Morgan. They all use different sample sizes and methods, Newspoll’s sample appears smaller than both (when EMC aggregates ver 2 weeks.

    Am curious if you’ve changed your ‘rationale’ over the years.

  19. Dave re Russia (and Israel etc)

    International relations is heating up. Hard to judge just how much this is domestic posturing and how much is a return to overt realism IR.

    It turns my mind to the next US presidential election and I wonder how much IR will be an issue and how crucial the election will be for global stability.

  27. sohar@158

    Perhaps Newspolls all-over-the-place fortnightly findings are due to the organisations reliance on landlines. This must make it very difficult to reach the cross-sections of the community they require. Many of the 18-35 group they get are probably those that still live at home with their aging parents. Only the older generations are holding on to landlines, and even they are ditching them at an increasing rate, apparently.

    From ACMA report for 2013-14 (it will probably be less favourable to landlines now in 2015):

    “The most interesting finding is that almost three -quarters of Australian households (73 per cent in fact) still have a landline – down 2 per cent on the previous year. While the trend suggests that landline usage will continue to decline in coming years, the slide is not yet alarming. And if you tried to imagine a cost-effective, geographically precise way of randomly reaching three-quarters of the country’s households, phone would still be the answer…
    …However it’s obviously not all sunshine and roses for fixed line researchers. In particular, over half of all 25-34 year olds now live in a mobile-only household. That makes reaching this group by fixed line phone an increasingly complex and expensive task. This will in turn require innovative solutions, and possible some mixed-method surveys to accommodate this age group.”

    I wonder how they get on with cheap internet access?

    I am on NBN fixed wireless, nominal 25/5, actually 20/4, and my ‘landline’ is VOIP via the internet connection.

    Cost is around $60 – $65 per month for 100Gb and phone bill.

    I’ve also got an iphone 5S because I need it for travelling (google maps to give directions in strange towns and so on, communicating with home in emergencies, but normally I communicate via email when I get free wifi, but I don’t normally use it at other times, except maybe when I go downtown in case I forget my shopping list or whatever.

    Internet access over an iphone via the Optus or Telstra or Vodaphone networks is horrendously expensive by comparison.

  28. victoria – Any news yet on the Govt. business Abbott was busy with on Sat/Sunday?

    Did the dail telegraph REALLY describe M’arn as “one of labor’s brightest minds”? That is bias to the point of slander. He typifies everything that is wrong with the ALP

    sustainablefuture – M’arn latest outbursts for the Libs explains a lot about his time in the Gillard Govt. It seems, as some suggested then, that he really was feathering his bed with mining interests.

  29. BH

    All i have heard is that Abbott’s office have stated that he was also in Melbourne for govt business. No idea what that govt business was supposed to be though.

  30. Don@176,
    I guess people just plug in a wireless modem and don’t bother with a phone line. Skype calls can be done via a computer, tablet or phone – very cheap.

  31. All eyes here r on Santos too.

    SimonK – A rellie of mine is an engineer with Santos (several years standing). He’s been told jobs are on the line and is waiting to hear if he’s to go.

  36. Abbott is being rewarded by voters for tossing a whole lot of unpopular policies. This result is no surprise at all. Whether it will last is completely another matter.

  37. BH

    I knew Martin back in the day of conferences etc he always had an air of arrogance about him. He was a leader of the left.

    Amazing how a job in big business can change your position with such ease.

  38. This year Hockey and Co are investigating selling irreplaceable real estate. They’ve contracted PricewaterhouseCoopers to investigate selling the parliamentary triangle buildings that house the Treasury and Finance departments as well as the historic East Block and West Block buildings either side of the old Parliament House and the Anzac Park East and West buildings that flank the view of the War Memorial from Lake Burley Griffin.

    Once sold, they would be leased back to the departments of Treasury and Finance and whoever needed to use them. For the next four years (as far out as the budget’s detailed forecasts go), Hockey’s accounts would look good. He would have raised serious money. Beyond that, his successors would be paying out serious rent.

    The Howard government sold the purpose-built Foreign Affairs headquarters to the to the Motor Traders’ Association super fund for $217 million in 1998. By 2017 it will have paid out $311 million in rent. Foreign Affairs can’t move out, and what dressed up the budget nicely in 1998 will cost $20 million or more per year in rent forevermore.

    The charter of budget honesty rules allow this sleight of hand for the sale of buildings but not for the sale of corporations, something Hockey is apparently planning to take advantage of.

    Only a government that didn’t really care about its long-term finances would use such a loophole, only a government that had given up on doing the hard work it said needed to be done.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/joe-hockey-to-tart-up-the-budget-with-lipstick-20150323-1m4tkt.html

    Am I misunderstanding Liberal ideology. Surely it’s to accumulate assets and investments for future prosperity. No?

  41. SimonK – A rellie of mine is an engineer with Santos (several years standing). He’s been told jobs are on the line and is waiting to hear if he’s to go.

    Rellie of mine works for a firm that does training for oil, gas and mining project workers. They are starting to downsize now as companies cut their training budgets. One of the issues is that projects that have been developed and were supposed to be going into the production phase are being mothballed due to low commodity prices.

    Bottom line is that much water is yet to flow and there will be a big release of said water in about May this year.

    That would be a lot of dirty water then? 🙂

  42. Zoidlord – Yes re the announcement in Feb but I don’t think all have been told exactly who is going. My rellie is still on tenterhooks about his job.

    @srpeatling: In breaking news Qld LNP Senator Brett Mason is resigning – http://t.co/evw8iKEZ8G via @smh

    Wow! So Mason lost out in his battle with Brandis. I thought they were good mates who used to travel o/s together wearing identical knitted jumpers.

  43. Grattan doesn’t do insight.

    Rather than read her article just get someone to paraphrase the Newspoll results and the Bishop/Hockey story from yesterday’s evening news…

    I suppose Morgan and Newspoll going in such different directions is difficult to explain, but an attempt would at least make interesting reading.

    I like the way Newspoll jumps about and gives a gauge of sentiment, and sometimes it is counter-intuitive, but in this period the government was unambiguously crap.

    If the government has actually done well it would be nice if people like Grattan could explain how. Superficially at least the Morgan makes more sense this time…

  44. Diogenes

    Abbott is being rewarded by voters for tossing a whole lot of unpopular policies. This result is no surprise at all. Whether it will last is completely another matter.

    Good point. He’s dumped nearly everything he could get his hands on and he’s still behind in the polls. Reminds me of the Zeppelin scene in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang – pretty soon he’s going to realize he has nothing left to toss overboard except some of the passengers. I wouldn’t like to be Joe Hockey when that realization hits.

  46. “@bevanshields85: Exclusive story on politicians and VIP flights coming to @smh and @age websites shortly #auspol”

    Given the reports already out there this should be interesting. Posted one minute ago.

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