Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll continues its recent volatile form to deliver the Coalition its best result since September.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian gives the Coalition its best result since September, with Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 comparing with 55-45 last time. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 41%, Labor is down two to 37%, and the Greens are down one to 11%. Amid a general picture of weakening personal ratings for Bill Shorten, Newspoll has him down three on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 47% after a spike in his favour a fortnight ago. Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down two to 61% – dismal as those figures are, they’re his best since Australia Day. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has closed from 44-33 to 41-36.

Also today, Morgan’s latest poll combining face-to-face and SMS polling from the past two weekends has Labor up on last fortnight and level with the fortnight before, leaving the intervening poll looking like something of an aberration. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% with the Coalition down one to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are both down half a point to 11% and 1.5%. There’s a big shift to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, their lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 56-44, but a surprisingly modest one on previous election preferences, from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46, some of the difference evidently being obscured by rounding.

UPDATE (Essential Research): To reinforce the point that polling moves in mysterious ways, the normally sedate Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has moved two points to Labor, putting its lead at 54-46. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 41%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United down to an all-time low of 1%. The poll also finds a big downturn in the assessment of Joe Hockey’s performance as Treasurer even since the months after the budget, with approval at 27% (down eight points since August) and disapproval at 51% (up seven). Chris Bowen has all but caught up with him as preferred Treasurer, Hockey’s 34-23 lead in August now at 26-25. Relatedly, there is a poor result on economic sentiment, with 27% describing the state of the Australian economy as good (down 10% since last August) and 33% as poor (up 7%).

A question on data retention suggests dissatisfaction with the protections provided in the government’s policy, with 58% believing a warrant should be required to access data in any case, only 10% considering it should only apply to journalists and 12% believing no warrant should be required. Also featured are a semi-regular question on climate change, thought to be caused by human activity by 54% (down three since December) with 31% favouring the skeptical option (up two); 52% professing greater concern than two years ago (up one) with 8% less concerned (down one); 45% favouring incentives for renewable energy in response (up five since September), 12% an emissions trading scheme (up two), 10% the government’s direct action policy (steady) and 11% believing no action is required (steady). The 20% renewable energy target is thought too high by 8% (down five since last July), too low by 33% (up four) and about right by 32% (down four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,293 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Fraser and Our Dangerous ally
    ____________
    Fraser,like Craig Paul Roberts …Reagan’s former treasurer ..in the USA…was a conservative who came in his last years to see the danger we face as an ally of the US,,,where the Neo-cons are prepared to do what ever it takes to maintain US supremecy everywhere
    He saw the danger of a clash with China…and like Gorbechov(yes he is still alive) who saw the Ukrainian situation as a long planned neo-con attack on Russia

    Fraser saw the possibility of a Sino-Japan too… with us dragged in by the USA in a conflict which would be catastrophic for us ,,and what Australian would want to go to war on the side of the Japanese,still led by men like Abe who admire the war criminals of the past….. such a conflict might see the Japanese militarist taught a harsh lesson again..which many Australians might applaud

    He may have opened the door to great changes in foreign policy

  2. Happiness @3064 (previous thread):

    [OK, I think I get it now.

    Confessions thinks Howard didn’t raise enough money
    Confessions thinks Howard spent too much money

    So, Confessions wanted Howard to lock in EVEN MORE MASSIVE surpluses that he had (the biggest in Australian history). Whereas the 6 years of Gillard and Rudd having the largest deficits in Austrlalian history were all hunky-dory.

    Yeah?]

    Oh my goodness, the bulldust is strong with your post.

    First: As regards the “even more massive” surpluses. That were, thanks to his middle-class welfare vote-buying exercises and his commitment to making the lives of the rich easier, actually structural deficits by the time Howard left office, hidden by a one-off flow of mining revenues.

    The myth of the Howard Government as “big savers” was busted by the IMF’s international study of fiscal economics, which noted two periods of the Howard Government (2003 and 2005-07) as containing the only periods of “fiscal profligacy” in post-WWII Australian history.

    What’s more, economic booms are – per textbook economics, both Keynesian and otherwise – the time for governments to run large surpluses, pay down debt and establish wealth funds against the next downturn. Which Norway has done, leading to the Norwegian sovereign wealth funds holding over a million kroner (about $200,000) per citizen in net assets.

    How did the Norwegian Government get so unimaginably wealthy that it can afford to not cut any government spending for the foreseeable future? Because they didn’t fritter away one-off resource booms in ridiculous vote-buying exercises, that’s how!

    As for the “biggest deficits in Australian history”, they were only that if you fail to account for inflation. Compared to the size of the economy, both the Fraser and Hawke/Keating Governments at least temporarily ran bigger deficits (which is completely ignoring the deficit during WWI, WWII and the Great Depression). And they weren’t dealing with the worst economic crash in 80 years.

    You can take your bulldust and shove it somewhere distinctly uncomfortable – no-one around here is buying it at the asking price.

  3. This poll makes as much sense as the 57-43 Newspoll we saw just over a month ago

    There is nothing happening in voterland to create any comeback story unless this is the voters being happy at the sigh of lower power bills, lower petrol prices and lower interest rates.

    Or has Newspoll being adding a few samples from Liberal areas.

  4. The poll is probably right, and it could be possible that people of NSW have not had enough of Liebral to be cured of Liebral.

    I still maintain that the voters of Australia have not suffered enough to cure them of their illusions of the competency of Lib/Nat coalition governments. Right now they think they have just got an odd sour bunch of grapes, and if they throw it out and reach for a replacement from the same vine, everything will be sweet.

    When the voters are so sick in their guts that the very sight of an L/NP grape makes them puke, then it will be time for the ALP to offer an alternative.

  5. Perilous days for Greece…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-22/tsipras-heads-to-berlin-as-greece-faces-decisive-week

    [German Chancellor Angela Merkel is ready to address all aspects of relations with Greece when she meets with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Berlin, as the Greek government braces for another payment deadline within days.

    Tsipras’s meeting with the leader of the biggest contributor to Greece’s stalled 240 billion-euro ($259 billion) bailout is a precursor to make-or-break decisions Tsipras faces as his country’s financial predicament becomes ever more parlous. His government needs to spell out economic measures it plans to undertake as early as this week to unlock long-withheld aid payments that will keep the country afloat.]

  6. Deceleration in China now irreversible…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-22/china-unable-to-grow-at-previous-pace-vice-premier-zhang-says

    [China doesn’t need the rapid economic growth of the past and will instead focus on tasks including returning the blue to Beijing’s skies, Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli told global executives gathered in the city.

    “It is both impossible and unnecessary to maintain the very high growth of the past,” said Zhang, a member of the seven-man Politburo Standing Committee, the nation’s top decision-making body. “We’ve paid the price for that,” he said Sunday. “It’s not sustainable.”

    China’s growth has cooled as officials rein in local-government debt, crack down on graft and strengthen environmental laws after economic expansion averaged about 10 percent annually over 30 years. Premier Li Keqiang’s targeted gain of about 7 percent in gross domestic product this year would be the smallest increase since 1990.

    “Maintaining a growth rate of 7 percent for the next few years is not possible,” Nouriel Roubini, an economist who teaches at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said at the China Development Forum on Saturday. “The only way you could do so is by increasing further the amount of credit relative to GDP and that increase of leverage eventually is going to lead to massive losses.”

    President Xi Jinping and other leaders describe the slowdown as a “new normal” and a “higher quality” of expansion. On Sunday, Zhang said reducing the growth rate is “prudent” as the government seeks to improve the economy’s structure and tackle challenges such as large wealth gaps between regions.]

  7. Matt, it’s interesting to think that basically everyone I know who is ‘politically engaged’ simply has the mindset that Libs = surplus and Labor = debt. I never seem hear the points you made mentioned whenever economic records are discussed.

  8. Trying to keep up but some sleep needed at times

    [mari
    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

    CTAR1

    Your favourite place in France?]

    Yep. Somestimes the grit in the air at Castillon can be a problem – half of Morrocco turns up.

    [Barney

    Lucky they don’t carry guns.

    They’re not renowned for their sense of humour.]

    I got fined 100 pounds for just having a swim – ‘Public Nuisance’. For just a quick lap from near the Shakespeare Theatre, around the back of HMS Belfast and across to the Tower. 😀

  9. [There is nothing happening in voterland to create any comeback story]

    That’s the point though. Nothing is happening and people are tuning out and going back to their trash TV.

  10. [CTar1

    Posted Tuesday, March 24, 2015 at 2:22 am | Permalink

    Barney

    Lucky they don’t carry guns.

    They’re not renowned for their sense of humour.

    I got fined 100 pounds for just having a swim – ‘Public Nuisance’. For just a quick lap from near the Shakespeare Theatre, around the back of HMS Belfast and across to the Tower. 😀
    ]

    😆
    Ridiculous, especially when you see what they do in fountains as soon as the temperature gets above 20.

  11. Barney

    Yep, lots of dirty feet get in the water.

    Just to finish the episode off, then OH was doing ‘chase’. Clocked doing 70 on Byewater St. Another 250 quid.

    Conclusion was a ‘good night’ out.

  12. Is it possible that Tony did such a brilliant job of destroying the office of PM ( with a little Labor help ) when he was in opposition & that he has done an even better job at is as PM resulting in the Public having had a gut full.
    So when polled on party preference they are disengaged when polled on preferred PM they can’t stand Tony & Bills low public profile & disengagement mean he suffers as well.

    Come election the lying friar & Liberal Party will be destroyed if he is still PM

  13. The Daily ToiletPaper has uncovered two of Labor’s brightest minds to pillory Luke Foley. You can’t make this shit up, or can you?

    [TWO of Labor’s brightest minds have slammed Opposition Leader Luke Foley’s bungled election campaign.

    Former federal minister Martin Ferguson lashed Mr Foley’s “rank opportunism and blatant scaremongering” and said his policy of cancelling the Santos Narrabri gas project was “irresponsible”.

    And writing in today’s Daily Telegraph, veteran Labor adviser Tim Gleason, who worked on six ALP election campaigns, said Mr Foley had badly over-estimated public opposition to Premier Mike Baird’s plan to lease part of the state’s electricity network to raise $20 billion to fund ­urgently needed roads, rail and schools infrastructure.]

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    After cynically appointing Dick Warburton to review the RET now they petulantly threaten to walk away from negotiations.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/23/ian-macfarlane-threatened-to-walk-out-of-negotiations-with-renewables-industry
    Greg Jericho on Abbott’s confused budget narrative. As usual it is choc-a-block with interesting supportive data.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/mar/23/tony-abbotts-confused-pre-budget-narrative-has-few-ideas-for-economic-recovery
    Mesma’s certainly less than impressed with Hockey at least!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/backdown-on-foreign-aid-cuts-flagged-as-tensions-rise-between-julie-bishop-and-joe-hockey-20150323-1m5k7i.html
    Paul Bongiorno – What Abbott can learn from Malcolm Fraser.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/03/23/nation-loses-moral-compass-sense-decency/
    How many more babies need to needlessly die because of us not standing up to anti-vaxxers?
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/dont-let-any-more-babies-die-because-of-anti-vaccination-lobby/story-fni0fhie-1227275475765
    Women’s refuges in regional NSW are being ripped apart..
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/03/23/regional-womens-refuges-are-being-ripped-apart
    Michelle Grattan examines tensions within the cabinet.
    https://theconversation.com/abbott-gets-poll-relief-as-coalition-narrows-the-gap-39197
    The 27 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/03/23/the-twenty-seven-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-228/
    More public service strikes on the way?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-service-strikes-at-agriculture-department-bureau-of-meteorology-looming-20150323-1m5dml.html
    Read this to see what the Medicare freeze will lead to.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/why-the-medicare-freeze-matters-to-everyone-who-visits-a-gp-20150323-1m5mfa.html

  15. Section 2 . . .

    Direct Action still doesn’t have enough cash.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/3/23/policy-politics/projected-emissions-slashed-direct-action-still-doesnt-have-enough
    The angst around CSG roared to the surface on last night’s Q and A.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/03/24/farmers-opposed-coal-seam-gas/
    Given the government’s response so far to the Moss Report this Senate inquiry should have some interesting dynamics if it gets up!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-senate-inquiry-to-probe-sexual-abuse-in-nauru-detention-centre-20150323-1m5sn5.html
    Labor toys with embracing the “sharing economy”. Peter Martin takes a look at the principle.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/labor-to-embrace-the-sharing-economy-of-uber-and-airbnb-with-standards-20150323-1m5s5s.html
    Peter Martin thinks Hockey will resort to accounting gymnastics to tart up the 2015 budget.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/joe-hockey-to-tart-up-the-budget-with-lipstick-20150323-1m4tkt.html
    “View from the Street” covers several current hot topics today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-wont-everyone-think-of-the-children-20150323-1m5rql.html
    The SMH has a good editorial on how case by case the Royal Commission is exposing the hard truths of institutional child sexual abuse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/royal-commission-exposing-the-hard-truths-about-abuse-20150323-1m4juw.html
    There is turmoil within the Liberal Party as same sex marriage opinions firm up and the Australian Christian Lobby launches a spam attack.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/numbers-inside-liberal-party-swing-in-favour-of-marriage-equality-as-email-campaign-hots-up-20150323-1m5gop.html

  16. Section 3 . . .

    Bruce Petty has Abbott switching to vaudeville.

    Alan Moir with Abbott and his band.

    Cathy Wilcox on the outlook for the sale of NSW poles and wires.

    Beautiful work again from David Pope.

    Mark Knight takes us into QT for the reaction to Hockey’s triumphalism on the razor gang.

    A fantastic effort from David Rowe as the razor gang goes to work on Mesma.

  17. When the Liberal cheer squad start their debt bullshit ask them when a Federal Liberal Govt cut spending in real terms, the answer NEVER. Only the ALP has made real cuts to spending.

  18. morning all

    Ru

    Hope all is well.

    First news off the rank on sports radio this morning, was the wonderful newspoll for Abbott and Co, but to my surprise they then did a report that is in the Herald Sun this morning about the Abbott. Not sure if I heard correctly. Something about Abbott using the VIP jet to attend a birthday party on Sunday here in Melbourne for a mining millionaire???

  19. , it’s interesting to think that basically everyone I know who is ‘politically engaged’ simply has the mindset that Libs = surplus and Labor = debt. I never seem hear the points you made mentioned whenever economic records are discussed.]

    Bonza@109 – Definitely embedded in most minds now. Last week the clever remarks were about Labor leading us down the Greek path and Shorten’s trainwreck of an interview.

    Both comments were repeated by every LNPer interviewed and repeated in news bulletins.

    I’m a bit surprised by the big drop in newspoll but, apart from a similar drop on the eve of the Qld election, the eulogies for Malcolm Fraser may have helped a over the weekend. Polls rose for Labor when Gough left us.

  20. I can’t help but feel that Baird is going to have a big win with only a modest swing away from the extremes of 2011, and getting NSW voters to focus on the State contest this weekend is spilling over into the Federal voting intent.

    NSW voters may dislike Abbott, but they quite like Baird, and the thought of giving power back to the NSW ALP after Obeid, Macdonald, Tripodi et al is … well, inconceivable – and understandably so. The NSW ALP campaign has picked a couple of targets that they thought could win them the campaign (as a long shot, but still), but these have failed to hit home (and Mar’n and co certainly haven’t helped).

    I am generally more aligned with the ALP (at least at a Federal level) than any other party, but I thought the NSW ALP deserved to lose (and would have been better all around if they did lose) in 2007, and they were certainly over-ripe and putresecent in 2011. They haven’t done enough to reform themselves, and I said when Foley took over that Foley needed to run a positive, hopeful campaign – he/they haven’t done that, and they will lose and lose big.

    I’m just glad I have a viable independent candidate to vote for.

    As to the Federal implications – limited. I do think the relatively good Federal polling for the Libs is related to spillover from focusing on the state Libs for this campaign. Abbott will get some mileage out of a healthy NSW Lib result and push back any libspill. I don’t think that state/federal spillover will help in 2016, and Abbott and the Feds will have to be crossing their fingers that Baird and co don’t stuff up too badly in the next year or so. A good state government won’t save the Feds, but a bad state government could certainly hurt them.

    And Baird and his band of moderates who somehow managed to fluke their way into control of the NSW Libs/Nats certainly haven’t been shy about attacking the Federal Libs where it counts. And it is somewhat ironic, to me, that the nutters at the Federal level are basically relying on the State Libs to keep a lid on their nutter faction.

  21. Hmmm… I had thought that Tsipras might have gone to chat with Mutti in the vague hope that she would pull his fat out of the fire.

    Instead he raises war reparations in a press conference with Mutti.

    Mutti not happy.

    Over to Putin?

  22. I think a couple of the problems with the Nationals were on display last night.

    Firstly, they do see themselves as representing farmers.

    There are less than 160,000 farmers in Australia — but over 2 million people living in rural/regional areas (more if you include regional centres).

    Basically, people in rural/regional areas who aren’t farmers are effectively disenfranchised atm….which might explain why electorates centred on regional centres tend to go with the majors.

    My Shire is very rural in nature, and yet 50% of the population lives in towns (and many of those who don’t are on lifestyle properties).

    Moreover, most farmers I know of have at least one partner working off farm – the men driving trucks, working at the dark satanic mill, or working as tradies, the women teaching or nursing.

    If the Nats continue to focus on representing farmers, rather than country people, their constituency will be the remnants of the squattocracy and corporate farmers.

    Secondly, the Nats don’t do education. They are a mirror to their constituency, rather than engaging in conversation.

    The muddled attitude towards CSG was an example last night. Nash was conflicted – she clearly thought that CSG wasn’t always a bad thing – but she was reluctant to say so.

    It was obvious that the rural reps on the panel were conflating CSG with mining full stop. She didn’t try and clarify the difference for them, but was happy to let them believe they were comparing apples with apples.

    Now, if that was just with CSG, that would have been excusable. But there were a number of topics where she had clear opportunities to do some actual education and she squibbed them.

    What does it matter, some of you might ask – she’s only an MP.

    MPs in rural areas have a lot more influence that their city based counter parts. The resistance to accepting climate change amongst country people, for example, has been strengthened by MPs such as Barnaby Joyce. We also have a lot of trouble getting people to understand water issues, because the Nat MPs encourage utterly false beliefs and make promises on those bases, even when it is obvious (to anyone with any understanding of the legislative framework) that those promises can never be delivered.

    Of course, what then happens is that the Nats blame the Libs for their inability to deliver, thus increasing the resentment in their electorates towards ‘city based parties’.

    The reluctance of the Nats to do any kind of confrontation and their deliberate dishonesty on a range of subjects, in part explains the continuing discordance on major issues between country and city people.

    Whether or not people in rural areas can access doctors, for example, is as much an issue for farmers as it is for the (large number of) people who live in the towns. Yet the conversation last night was all about how we can get people to come to rural areas to work on farms.

  23. [I’m just glad I have a viable independent candidate to vote for.]

    Which seat, Jackol.

    I will be interested to see how the Greens poll on the lower North Shore where they beat the ALP in a few seats last time around.

  24. My Greek professional mate who has just finished a Victorian court case (which involved taking evidence in Greece) says Greece is imploding.

  25. Morgan poll 56-44 to ALP

    News poll crap

    ALP support increased to 56% (up 2.5%), still well clear of the L-NP 44% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, March 14/15 & 21/22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,146 Australian electors aged 18+.

  26. shellbell – nothing so interesting. Sydney. I have no idea if Greenwich is actually polling competitively or not, but as the sitting member and Clover surrogate I would have thought he was in with a chance. Unless Clover’s aura has deserted her or there is a big swing to one of the majors, which seems unlikely. If Greenwich wasn’t in the mix I would have guessed it to be a fairly marginal Libs/Greens or Libs/ALP contest.

  27. Do you think the renewables sector can pick up before the next change in government? I’ve built my career in this industry and have had to move to the UK for now to keep it afloat.

  28. Turnbull being a conviction politician —

    [I absolutely respect and understand their commercial position but it’s important to understand that what they are seeking would not be popular, it would be most unpopular and in any event, it would need to be approved by the Senate.]

    Ah, so Turnbull’s only objection to anti siphoning laws is that they’d be unpopular and he wouldn’t be able to get them through the Senate. So one assumes that he’s really for them…

    but…

    [Q: You know these changes need to occur.

    Turnbull:

    Not to anti-siphoning.]

    So the only reasons he can’t bring in anti siphoning laws is because they’re not popular and the Senate is feral, except that he wouldn’t bring them in even if he could — but we don’t know why.

    Turnbull. All backbone.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2015/mar/24/newspoll-bounce-for-tony-abbott-politics-live

  29. Zoomster @132

    When you wrote “Basically, people in rural/regional areas who aren’t farmers are effectively disenfranchised atm…”

    Did you mean non-farmers are “disenfranchised At The Moment”, or “disenfranchised Automatic Teller Machines”.

    Either way, I think you’re right…

  30. [William noted that on the eve of the previous NSW election and federal election, the polls dropped for Labor]

    Victoria – Thanks, just found time to read back comments fully and see that.

    It’ll be interesting to see if it’s a future trend.

  31. BH

    What is surprising is that the Herald Sun has a story on Abbott attending Liberal donor birthday party on weekend, using govt resources to get there. Who leaked the story?

  32. BH

    I should add that of course, Abbott says he was also in Melbourne to do govt work. He always finds one little thing to do whilst conducting his jet set life

  33. The position of External Counsel to Tristan Da Cuhna is being advertised in Australia.

    The job, which pays the princely salary of nil, is to provide written advice on anything and everything legal.

    There is an exhaustive list of criteria to be met to get the job including this one which should narrow the field a little:

    [An understanding or interest in Tristan’s unique culture and People]

  34. Did the dail telegraph REALLY describe M’arn as “one of labor’s brightest minds”? That is bias to the point of slander. He typifies everything that is wrong with the ALP

  35. Wow, listening to The Doors this morning, you’d get the impression that the polls mean something to the Coalition.

    Normally, of course, they’re not at all important.

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