BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

Not much doing in the world of federal polling this week, but there’s quite a bit to report on the preselection front.

It’s been as quiet a week as they come so far as federal polling is concerned, with only the reliable weekly Essential Research to keep us amused. Newspoll and Roy Morgan were both in an off week in their fortnightly cycles, and neither Galaxy nor ReachTEL stepped forward to fill the gap, presumably because their clients at News Corporation and the Seven Network blew their budget on double-up polls during the Liberal leadership excitement in early February. Since the Essential Research result landed well on trend, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has recorded only the most negligible of changes on voting intention, with the marginal exception of a 0.3% lift for the Greens. Labor also makes a gain on the seat projection, having tipped over the line for a seventh seat in Western Australia (do keep in mind though that the electoral furniture there will shortly be rearranged by the redistribution to accommodate the state’s newly acquired entitlement to sixteenth seat).

If an absence of polling is a problem for you, you can at least enjoy yesterday’s semi-regular state voting intention results from Roy Morgan, based on SMS polling of samples ranging from 432 in Tasmania to 1287 in New South Wales. These have Labor leading 56-44 in Victoria, 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, 53-47 in South Australia and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (not that two-party preferred means anything under Hare-Clark). However, the recently defeated Liberal National Party is credited with an improbable 51-49 lead in Queensland. New South Wales is not included in the mix as the result was published a day before the rest, which you can read all about on my latest state election thread.

In other news, federal preselection action is beginning to warm up, spurred in part by the possibility that Liberal leadership turmoil might cause the election to be held well ahead of schedule. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Labor “has ordered its state and territory branches to urgently preselect parliamentary candidates by the end of June”, with exemptions for New South Wales and Western Australia owing to their looming redistributions (the latter process is presently at the stage of receiving public suggestions, which may be submitted by April 10). Some notable happenings on that count:

• Labor has conducted local ballots for preselections in the three Victorian seats it lost to the Liberals in 2013. Darren Cheeseman appears to have failed in his bid for another crack at Corangamite, where the ballot was won by Libby Coker, a Surf Coast councillor and former mayor who ran in Polwarth at the November state election. Also in the field was Tony White, an economic development manager at Colac Otway Shire and former adviser to various ministers and premiers in Bracks-Brumby ogvernment. In La Trobe, former Casey councillor Simon Curtis outpaced the rather higher profile Damien Kingsbury, the director of La Trobe University’s Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights. The vote in Deakin was won by Tony Clarke, of whom I can’t tell you much. It now remains for the state party’s public office selection committee to determine its 50% share of the vote total, but the talk seems to be that Coker in particular is home and hosed.

• Joe Ludwig, who has held a Queensland Senate seat for Labor since 1999, has announced he will not seek another term at the next election. He is set to be succeeded by Anthony Chisholm, the party’s state secretary from 2008 until 2014, when the Left’s unprecedented success in scoring majority control at the party’s state conference caused the position to pass to Evan Moorhead. Chisholm was given the short-term and now-expired role as director of the state election campaign, and also has Left faction support to fill Ludwig’s position, which remains in the hands of the AWU/Labor Forum faction. A potential rival contender was Chisholm’s predecessor as state secretary, Cameron Milner, but AWU support consolidated behind Chisholm in part because he had the backing of Wayne Swan, which reportedly led to a falling out between Swan and Milner. For more on both Swan and Milner, see further below.

• There is also a widely held expectation that Ludwig will shortly be joined in the departure lounge by the Left faction’s Jan McLucas, the other Queensland Labor Senator due to face the voters at the next half-Senate election. The favourite to replace her is Murray Watt, a Bligh government minister who lost his seat of Everton in the 2012 landslide, and more recently a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn. However, Michael McKenna of The Australian reports this could raise affirmative action issues, with Townsville mayor Jenny Hill mooted as an alternative contender if so. Another aspirant mentioned in McKenna’s report is Michael Ravbar, state secretary of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.

• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Wayne Swan and Bernie Ripoll are “being stalked as targets of possible preselection challenges”. In Swan’s inner northern Brisbane seat of Lilley, the aforementioned Cameron Milner is said to be “considering” a challenge to the former Treasurer. On the western side of town in Oxley, Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick is “preparing to roll Mr Ripoll”, and has “cross-factional support” to do so.

• The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella is keen to run again in Indi, which she famously lost in 2013 to independent Cathy McGowan. However, the report says the party is “deeply pessimistic about the chance of regaining the seat, and the contest is complicated by the Nationals being able to contest it”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,093 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 59 of 62
1 … 58 59 60 … 62

  2. [Barney,

    Plenty say that.

    But Bill’s managed a 7-8% swing to Labor doing what he thinks best. I’d let him just get on with it!
    ]

    But that’s the mistake the Lib’s made. In an election they were never going to lose, Abbott still couldn’t be honest and lay out what they wanted to do.

    The result, broken promises because he was too sh!t scared to tell the people what he wanted to do. Admittedly if he told all they probably wouldn’t have been elected, but if they had any brains they would presented some and kept the rest back for their second term. It might have cost him 1-2% which he could more than afford.

    If the next budget is another dud there will be a policy vacuum which Labor could use to slowly release policies and have the debate in a controlled manner.

    Show the voters how a real government would go about the job and if it costs a percent or two, stiff.

  4. [2891
    Matt]

    The LNP will try to blame Labor yet again. They will whinge and whinge. But come election time, the public will not be listening to excuses. They will want to know what the respective sides are offering. Labor will have its chance to propose new policies – a new social and fiscal compact that serves social justice as well as the economy and public finance.

  5. GG:

    Like Kerr, I believe all the reportage indicates Cousins has an addiction problem. Appropriate treatment and support would absolutely be warranted if that’s the case.

  7. [A new front has opened up in Labor’s war against Mike Baird’s bid to privatise the NSW electricity network after details emerged of a meeting between Treasurer Andrew Constance and a Chinese government-owned company over the deal.

    Last November’s meeting between energy giant State Grid Corp of China and Mr Constance was detailed in a report by the China Daily newspaper on March 6.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-2015-unions-target-chinese-government-ownership-of-nsw-electricity-grid-20150323-1m5hlw.html

  8. Re. Cormanns figures of 1% growth he is probably including all of the budget cuts they didn’t get through the senate

  10. GG, let’s be honest Bill is only there whilst Abbott is there, when Abbott goes he’ll be cut down and Tony Burke will come in.

  11. [matt, please don’t take this the wrong way but your posts are repetitive and that can be dull]

    Jeeze, what a tosser you ae ESJ.

  13. [On another note I see Ben Cousins has been arrested for the third time in 2 weeks. So very sad. He is headed for a squalid end unless something dramatic is done for him. Unfortunately it appears he doesn’t want to help himself.]

    Henry – That is so sad. The world was his oyster and it’s hard to watch him destroy himself. Hopefully somebody can pull him out of the mire before its too late.

  16. ESJ @2910:

    [GG, let’s be honest Bill is only there whilst Abbott is there, when Abbott goes he’ll be cut down and Tony Burke will come in.]

    What makes you say that?

  17. [Simon Katich

    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

    BiS

    no it’s just the salt water from my last swim.

    You suck.
    ]

    G’day Simon,

    You never mentioned how Womad finished up.

    Swim time!

  19. BB:

    FRankly I can’t understand why the fuss about Abbott biting into a raw, whole onion plus skin. No it isn’t something I would or could do, but if that were the worst thing Abbott had done as PM I’d feel a lot less worried about where we’re headed for the next 18mths these jokers are in office.

  21. Confessions

    I hope a sojourn in your part of the world does the trick for Daniel Kerr, but I’ll wait and see.

    Ben cousins has a severe substance abuse problem. Nobody knows the answer to that.

  24. [2897
    Henry

    Thanks briefly @ 2889.
    Regarding outlays and the 8% growth. Am sure I heard Cormann today boasting how he had kept growth in govt spending to 1% or am i comparing apples to oranges.]

    That was the budget number. The forecast given in MYEFO was a 2% increase. It’s very doubtful this will be the outcome as it was predicated in budget measures that have failed to pass the Senate. If it were, they would not need to borrow so much, and yet borrowings have been escalating even though MYEFO forecast they would start to decline by now. (MYEFO forecast an underlying cash deficit of $39.8 billion, or 2.5% of GDP. This has already been exceeded and is in line to hit $65 billion for this financial year, or 3.8% of GDP.)

    We have to wait a bit to see the actual spending results.

  26. rossmcg

    I have been carrying on about the ice drug problem here in Victoria for ages. It seems that the past few months have seen an increased community discussion and reporting in the msm regarding the issue. Sadly i feel the horse has bolted. Ben Cousins is a prime example of where it all leads.

  27. rossmcg:

    I’ve actually had lunch with Kerr and his then fiance, now ex-wife after he’d just bought a holiday house here. He was still playing for the WCE then and it was before it all went bad for him.

  30. victoria:

    One thing I haven’t kept abreast of being so busy is the Essendon/ASADA/Hird wash up. I gather Hird is back coaching the Bombers?

  32. Victoria

    Indeed

    We have had two court cases in WA in the last month or so where meth addicts have killed people while in a psychotic state.

    One young man stabbed a man at random on a beach and the other killed his partner (maybe ex, not sure off top of head) then went to his best friends house and killed him.

    Dangerous dangerous stuff.

  33. Confessions

    There is plenty of evidence that it was going bad for Kerr while he was still at WC. His problems are not something that has come up since retirement

  34. BH
    [The world was his oyster]
    Why? Because he was good at a sport? Thankfully the world requires a little more than that.

    Barney
    Today, the top temp here in the Ade Hills was 15deg, and drizzle. I am not looking forward to 6 months of winter.

  36. GG:

    Oh dear. Right at the start of the season too.

    rossmcg:

    I wasn’t aware of Kerr having issues until right before he left WCE. He and his fiance were planning their wedding, looking forward to it, and spending more time here during the off season.

  38. rossmcg

    Not wishing to say too much, but having a connection with someone at the westcoast eagles, you are right that Kerr had his problems whilst at the club. He wasnt the only one obviously. What has always surprised me is how little got out into the public sphere.

  39. [2937
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 8:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Q&A looks like yee ha tonight.
    ]

    Can’t watch Joel Fitzgibbon

  40. vic,

    Chris Mainwaring dying of a drug overdose on the street certainly got out in to the public sphere.

    It seems there was a drug culture at the club from the 90’s onwards.

  41. I could never understand the desire to hunt and kill for thrills.

    Humans evolved…..my arse!

    One day……karma

    [Trophy hunting for crocodiles in the Northern Territory is back on the agenda after an internal spat in the federal Coalition over the decision to ban importing stuffed lions’ heads from Africa.

    A brawl erupted between the Nationals and Liberals a fortnight ago after Environment Minister Greg Hunt announced he was “taking action to protect African lions from the barbaric practice of canned hunting by banning the import and export of trophies”.

    Canned hunting is where lions are raised in captivity for the sole purpose of being killed by cashed-up trophy hunters.

    Mr Hunt imposed a $170,000 fine on bringing lion body parts into Australia for individuals and $850,000 for corporations.

    Some Nationals were outraged that they had not been consulted, even though they do not condone canned hunting. They believe that Mr Hunt has demonised all hunters with some of his remarks.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/crocodile-trophy-hunting-northern-territory-coalition-spat/6340398

  42. GG

    You could hardly keep the death of Mainwarring a secret. There is a lot of serious stuff that never made the msm that involved other players.
    Judd leaving wasnt only because he was homesick

  44. [What has always surprised me is how little got out into the public sphere.]

    I remember watching a Footy Show episode back in the late 90s and Billy Brownless intimated with a simulation of injecting that there was a drug problem at WCE. At the time I thought of it as performance enhancing drugs, but in hindsight, and with everything that’s happened perhaps he was suggesting something else.

  47. [Matt
    Posted Monday, March 23, 2015 at 8:08 pm | PERMALINK
    Darn @2885:

    (remembering that it has to be adjusted for both the house effect that favours Labour and the nominated preference method that it uses).

    I’m curious – I can understand adjusting Morgan for the house effect, but why adjust for respondent-allocated preferences? Surely finding out how minor party/independent voters plan to preference next election is better than using last election’s numbers?]

    Matt

    As I understand it, up until recently the theory has been that the preference distribution from the previous election is the more accurate indicator. However, that was largely turned on its head after the unexpected Queensland result where it was shown that the nominated preferences were the more accurate. This seemed to be as a result of two factors, the optional preferential system that is used in Queensland and the fact that the voters went after the ALP with baseball bats at the previous election.

    So given that the voters also went after the ALP federally in 2013 with baseball bats you may well have a point. But I am no psephologist and I would prefer if William or Kevin could comment further.

  48. As a long time lurker, and seldom poster, I would like to share my experience having just returned from Russia (Moscow) after a brief work committment and holiday tacked on after…
    I was in Moscow when Nemtsov was assassinated, and I must say the Russians now how to do ‘supression’.
    The Sunday after his assassination there was a condolence rally, and the visibility of Russian police, military, special services and other police/military braches was overwhelming. At about 1:00 pm access to Red Square was shutdown (Rally was scheduled for 3:00 pm). This was one access point to the bridge where ther assassination took place, and where the rally was to commence.
    Alcohol was banned from sale from all restuarants, bottle shops and cafes in the downtown area adjacent to Red Square – I guess to avoid and potential alcohol filled disturbances. I was tonguing for a Siberian Crown beer though – very inconvenient. I crossed the bridge where the assassination took place on the previous Saturday evening, and the flowers, candles mourners and assembling press was quite a moving sight. Hadn’t heard of Nemtsov previously, didn’t know his politics, but as I walked passed the assassination spot, adorned with flowers, I had to choke back a tear.
    My lasting impression of Mother Russia was that, I certainly would think twice about shirtfronting Mr Putin, the consequences may not be ideal

  50. jm @ 2890

    [we are going to see them put forward some serious policy after the Cons have been forced to lock themselves into their agenda via the coming budget. Labor have been right not to reveal too much beforehand. Really is a question of timing.]

    That is precisely what I’m thinking. The Govt has painted itself into a very tight corner. The only realistic way out is to go after the tax concessions at the bigger end of town. But they are standing there guarding their privileges with great flaming swords (well donations actually). I can’t see this mob having the genuine courage to take them on the way Hawke and Keating worked with their base.

    So in a few weeks Shorten will have the opportunity to start carving out a positive agenda on the back of what will inevitably be a sneaky budget with the sneakiness very poorly concealed (because this mob are such fools).

    As for the occasional bleat from the Labor side, Shorten and Labor have the Rudd gift: the new requirements to replace an opposition leader are so onerous that only a lead plated dud will be susceptible. I bet Beazley wishes he had that.

Comments Page 59 of 62
1 … 58 59 60 … 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *