It’s been as quiet a week as they come so far as federal polling is concerned, with only the reliable weekly Essential Research to keep us amused. Newspoll and Roy Morgan were both in an off week in their fortnightly cycles, and neither Galaxy nor ReachTEL stepped forward to fill the gap, presumably because their clients at News Corporation and the Seven Network blew their budget on double-up polls during the Liberal leadership excitement in early February. Since the Essential Research result landed well on trend, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has recorded only the most negligible of changes on voting intention, with the marginal exception of a 0.3% lift for the Greens. Labor also makes a gain on the seat projection, having tipped over the line for a seventh seat in Western Australia (do keep in mind though that the electoral furniture there will shortly be rearranged by the redistribution to accommodate the state’s newly acquired entitlement to sixteenth seat).
If an absence of polling is a problem for you, you can at least enjoy yesterday’s semi-regular state voting intention results from Roy Morgan, based on SMS polling of samples ranging from 432 in Tasmania to 1287 in New South Wales. These have Labor leading 56-44 in Victoria, 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, 53-47 in South Australia and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (not that two-party preferred means anything under Hare-Clark). However, the recently defeated Liberal National Party is credited with an improbable 51-49 lead in Queensland. New South Wales is not included in the mix as the result was published a day before the rest, which you can read all about on my latest state election thread.
In other news, federal preselection action is beginning to warm up, spurred in part by the possibility that Liberal leadership turmoil might cause the election to be held well ahead of schedule. Troy Bramston of The Australian reports that Labor “has ordered its state and territory branches to urgently preselect parliamentary candidates by the end of June”, with exemptions for New South Wales and Western Australia owing to their looming redistributions (the latter process is presently at the stage of receiving public suggestions, which may be submitted by April 10). Some notable happenings on that count:
• Labor has conducted local ballots for preselections in the three Victorian seats it lost to the Liberals in 2013. Darren Cheeseman appears to have failed in his bid for another crack at Corangamite, where the ballot was won by Libby Coker, a Surf Coast councillor and former mayor who ran in Polwarth at the November state election. Also in the field was Tony White, an economic development manager at Colac Otway Shire and former adviser to various ministers and premiers in Bracks-Brumby ogvernment. In La Trobe, former Casey councillor Simon Curtis outpaced the rather higher profile Damien Kingsbury, the director of La Trobe University’s Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights. The vote in Deakin was won by Tony Clarke, of whom I can’t tell you much. It now remains for the state party’s public office selection committee to determine its 50% share of the vote total, but the talk seems to be that Coker in particular is home and hosed.
• Joe Ludwig, who has held a Queensland Senate seat for Labor since 1999, has announced he will not seek another term at the next election. He is set to be succeeded by Anthony Chisholm, the party’s state secretary from 2008 until 2014, when the Left’s unprecedented success in scoring majority control at the party’s state conference caused the position to pass to Evan Moorhead. Chisholm was given the short-term and now-expired role as director of the state election campaign, and also has Left faction support to fill Ludwig’s position, which remains in the hands of the AWU/Labor Forum faction. A potential rival contender was Chisholm’s predecessor as state secretary, Cameron Milner, but AWU support consolidated behind Chisholm in part because he had the backing of Wayne Swan, which reportedly led to a falling out between Swan and Milner. For more on both Swan and Milner, see further below.
• There is also a widely held expectation that Ludwig will shortly be joined in the departure lounge by the Left faction’s Jan McLucas, the other Queensland Labor Senator due to face the voters at the next half-Senate election. The favourite to replace her is Murray Watt, a Bligh government minister who lost his seat of Everton in the 2012 landslide, and more recently a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn. However, Michael McKenna of The Australian reports this could raise affirmative action issues, with Townsville mayor Jenny Hill mooted as an alternative contender if so. Another aspirant mentioned in McKenna’s report is Michael Ravbar, state secretary of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Wayne Swan and Bernie Ripoll are “being stalked as targets of possible preselection challenges”. In Swan’s inner northern Brisbane seat of Lilley, the aforementioned Cameron Milner is said to be “considering” a challenge to the former Treasurer. On the western side of town in Oxley, Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick is “preparing to roll Mr Ripoll”, and has “cross-factional support” to do so.
• The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella is keen to run again in Indi, which she famously lost in 2013 to independent Cathy McGowan. However, the report says the party is “deeply pessimistic about the chance of regaining the seat, and the contest is complicated by the Nationals being able to contest it”.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Hartcher on the prospects for a DD.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prime-minister-tony-abbott-canvasses-prospect-of-double-dissolution-election-20150318-1m2dvu.html
“No cuts to the ABC or SBS”. Yeah, sure Tone!
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/sbs-planning-to-scrap-football-in-shock-programming-upheaval-20150318-1m28og.html
Lenore Taylor – Abbott launches “Operation Budget Success” but it’s just lipstick on a pig. She does a good job on the IGR.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/18/tony-abbott-2014-budget-success-just-lipstick-on-a-pig
Mark Kenny – Abbott redefines “debt crisis”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/easy-budget-coming-as-tony-abbott-switches-to-voter-repair-20150318-1m2bw1.html
More from Kenny where he says Abbott makes a big retreat and then declares victory.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/120-university-of-tasmania-academics-sign-letter-berating-liberal-whip-andrew-nikolic-for-attack-on-free-speech-20150318-1m2ag5.html
Michelle Grattan says Abbott has checked out of the Structural Reform Enthusiasts Club.
https://theconversation.com/abbott-struggles-with-budget-lines-telling-the-structural-reform-enthusiasts-this-is-not-their-year-38995
This threat from Pyne may have some merit. It’s about value for money.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-proposes-fining-unis-for-debtdodging-graduates-20150318-1m27h2.html
Now it looks like the pension cuts will get knocked back by the Senate.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrisons-pension-changes-look-set-to-fail-as-crossbenchers-dig-in-20150318-1m24n6.html
This report soon to be released won’t make Sussan Ley’s job any easier from a political perspective.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/those-who-visit-gps-the-most-are-old-sick-and-poor-new-data-finds-20150318-1m2d3d.html
“Strongman” Nikolic kicks the academic ant nest in Tasmania.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/120-university-of-tasmania-academics-sign-letter-berating-liberal-whip-andrew-nikolic-for-attack-on-free-speech-20150318-1m2ag5.html
Section 2 . . .
The Treasury disowns the Intergenerational Report and how it is being used says Peter Martin.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-wasnt-ours-says-treasury-of-intergenerational-report-20150318-1m2csq.html
More support for changes to CGT and negative gearing with respect to housing.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/tax-reform-cannot-be-discussed-in-bits-and-pieces-20150318-1m22rk.html
Using the EastWest Link arrangement Josh Gordon argues that Liberals are not better economic managers.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/liberals-are-not-better-economic-managers-20150318-1m1we2.html
It looks like up to 1500 APS jobs in Defence will be lost now.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/1500-defence-public-servants-face-the-axe-20150318-1m1r4g.html
A good series of rants from “View from the Street”.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-is-marriage-equality-about-to-be-sprung-on-the-nation-20150318-1m2bgf.html
The 31 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/03/18/the-thirty-one-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-124/
And the 38 things from the previous day.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/03/17/the-thirty-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-223/
Let’s face it. We have a dork as a PM!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-was-never-worried-about-metadata-protections-when-i-was-a-journalist-says-tony-abbott-20150318-1m1yy6.html
It gets murkier and murkier!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/18/archbishop-charged-concealing-sex-abuse-quits-royal-commission-body
https://theconversation.com/philip-wilson-charges-mark-a-dark-day-for-the-catholic-church-38971
Seems to be a crescendo building on a DD, with the Daily ToiletPaper given the tip by the PMO of where to look
[THE Abbott government has threatened to try to turf renegade Senate crossbenchers out of Parliament, privately warning them that it will go to a double dissolution election as early as July if they continue to block legislation.
The Daily Telegraph has confirmed that Education Minister Chris Pyne has told at least two of the eight independent senators that the government was deliberately creating the trigger for a double dissolution election within three months over the stalled university reform Bills.
….
One crossbench Senator told The Daily Telegraph that Mr Pyne had made it clear to them in a private meeting that the government’s plans were to establish a DD trigger — available to a government when the Senate votes twice to block the same Bill.
“Yes, that is certainly what was said,” a crossbencher said.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/abbott-threatens-double-dissolution-if-senate-crossbenchers-continue-to-block-legislation/story-fni0cx12-1227268607666
Section 3 . . .
Alan Moir takes us to a big humble pie event. Have a look at Brandis!
More from Ron Tandberg on “lifestyle”.
David Rowe has a lot of fun with several issues here.
Bill Leak with an apologetic Abbott.
David Pope with a scary bedtime story from Abbott.
Bob Ellis is always up for a conspiracy
[It began to be rumoured that Murdoch, who started out in Adelaide, had in those far-off days recruited the high school student Pyne as a midget Soviet spy, and he was striving still to bring down capitalism by doing the most unpopular things he could think of, every day.]
Morning all
By threatening a DD, is the govt attempting to get the cross bench senators to start complying with govt demands. Or does team Abbott think the next budget will get them back in the good books with the electorate, thereby a DD is a fair gamble to take in order to get rid of the “feral” senators?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/
Daily iron ore price update (crash)
[Crash time. Spot was routed, especially Tianjin benchmark which crashed $3.1 or 5% to $54.50 a tonne. Dalian spent much of the day limit down and is currently 3 points below the close at 438. 12 month swaps are on the highway to Hell. Reality is setting in for the iron ore market and it ain’t pretty. Texture from Reuters: Chinese steel mills, already struggling with chronic overcapacity and slower demand growth as the world’s No. 2 economy loses momentum, are faced with rising environmental compliance costs…]
sprocket
[THE Abbott government has threatened to try to turf renegade Senate crossbenchers out of Parliament, privately warning them that it will go to a double dissolution election as early as July if they continue to block legislation.]
The poodle full of it.
The two coals crash
[Australia’s bulk commodities are under immense pressure. Thermal coal fell to another post-GFC low yesterday down 4% to $57.70: The damage to coking coal was more modest at around 1% down to a post-GFC low of $113]
This is indeed a bloody disgrace. Abbott was still bleating on about building east west yesterday. Team Labor need to get stuck into the liberals
[The former government was apparently so desperate to lock-in before the election, senior sources close to the project are now suggesting it was the consortium, not the government, which drafted the side letter.
If correct, the idea that a group of private companies might be allowed to draft a legal document exposing taxpayers to hefty financial risk for a project that probably wasn’t going ahead is a disgrace.
Worse, Treasurer Tim Pallas is now suggesting the consortium initially wanted to wait until after the November 29 election before finalising the project, having nominated December 5 as the date of “financial close”.
In public private partnership jargon, “financial close” represents the date at which the consortium starts drawing down cash from its financiers.]
The problem with a DD is that even if the Colaition won the lower house, and even if certain Senators lost their seats, it is more than likely that the crossbench numbers, currently 8, would actually increase.
With the reduced quotas I would think there would be at least one, or maybe two, from each state. Unless of course the whole voting system is changed just before the election. I had predicted that the Coalition and Labor would get together to do this right at the end of this term, but I am not sure whether Labor would do it now to “help” Tony in a DD.
vic
In the USA, ALEC – The American Legislative exchange Council, has been writing legislation for Republican state governments for years – and there was an occasion once where a Republican Government put up a bill into their Parliament which was literally still in “draft” from, and had “” type errors!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Legislative_Exchange_Council
that didn’t work – the bill had {insert state name here}, {insert city name here} type errors! Because it was straight from their generic prepared bills!
Rocket Rocket
I am confident, If it had been Labor and not Liberal that exposed the taxpayer to billions of dollars, the outrage would be loud and sustained.
Rocket Rocket
I actually recall Jon Stewart doing a segment on the matter. T’was funny
A Lib v Nat v McGowan tussle in Indi would be pretty fun to watch. Sounds like the opposite of ALP v Grn v Wilkie in Denison, complete with the possibility of someone getting elected from third place.
Morning all. The threat of a DD from Abbott is laughable. His backbenchers would lynch him, as dozens would lose their jobs. Abbott is stuck with the Senate and he knows it. On current numbers would Abbott get any more Senate numbers from a DD? I doubt it. Going to a DD with the failure to pass a whole lot of bills that were broken promises anyway is not a mandate for anything. I would think that most of the ex PUPs are more popular now as independents than they were as PUPs. The fact is, thanks to Palmer’s unique combination of money and bullying, Abbott is now stuck with a hostile Senate. Lambie and Lazarus in particular do not seem like the sort of characters who will be cowed into obedience, Abbott’s standard modus operandi.
Socrates
PVO on twitter fwiw
[It’s a genuine recovery strategy for Abbott: early DD election after budget. Change the narrative & beat any spill. But it sure is high risk]
Given the poodle’s empty threat to sack the scientists, this is probably just more hollow bluster, but maybe Abbott is mad enough to bring the whole edifice down rather than be humiliated in another party room challenge? He’s now got plenty of form for making big calls without talking to his cabinet, so if he pops over to Yarralumla to get the nod from the GG, can the party dump him before he gets back?
A sort of bizzaro-world reverse situation to what happened with Malcolm Fraser and Bill Hayden/Bob Hawke in 1983?
vic
[It’s a genuine recovery strategy for Abbott]
A suicide strategy, I’d say. I can just see Tones body floating down the fjord on the burning boat.
Rabbithat/ctar1
Abboott continues to play his games of distraction me thinks
If this were true
[One crossbench Senator told The Daily Telegraph that Mr Pyne had made it clear to them in a private meeting that the government’s plans were to establish a DD trigger — available to a government when the Senate votes twice to block the same Bill.
]
Then why were the higher ed reforms changed ? Because the same higher Ed bill was not put to the senate it does not qualify as a trigger.
Pyne and the Govt have no credibility.
Tony doesn’t give a toss if backbenchers lose their jobs. He’s only interested in saving his own.
After all, the ungrateful b*stards tried to roll him. Him!
They obviously don’t understand the genius of the program. It’s their fault the government is in this mess, because they should have done a better job of selling it.
Much better to have a thorough clean out and replace them down the track with some more amenable types.
It is the tragedy of all great reformers that others can’t see the big picture.
vic – The Senate X-Benchers have learned from their experience with Snotty late last year.
I think zoomster is closer to the mark on Tony Abbott and the DD threat than PVO. The only motivation for Abbott is self interest and whatever dog tells him via George Pell. Does anyone seriously think he will win a DD on a platform of higher uni fees and cuts to social services? Will he get a majority in the Senate that way?
No, a DD makes Abbott look like a Tough Man. A Leader. The only form of Leader that Abbott understands. He will be doing what Kevin Rudd failed to do on climate change. With a Senate majority, Abbott will be able to be a Great PM, a second Menzies, perhaps even a second Howard! He will be able to pass all the bills he dreams of, and make us all live under His Values.
What voter would not be grateful for a chance of that? Lets give absolute power to an absolutist man.
CTar1
[I can just see Tones body floating down the fjord on the burning boat.]
Orrrrrrrr
[I can just see Tones body floating across Manly Cove on a burning orange lifeboat with red budgie smugglers flying from the stern.]
BK and Victoria
Thanks for the links to the Josh Gordon article on the Melbourne E w link and it contractual shenanigans. I have said many times here that this project was rotten. Those progressing it have something to answer for. They did not follow correct process. Some of those processes are written down as regulations. Public servants have legal and ethical obligations to follow those processes. From Gordon’s article some with consciences are clearly already ready to spill the beans.
There needs to be an inquiry into who ordered this, who did it, what motives they had, whether there were any conflicts of interest, and who benefitted. If the beneficiaries donated any money to the political party that oversaw it, then Andrews has a lot to gain from such an inquiry.
Soc
[There needs to be an inquiry into who ordered this, who did it, what motives they had, whether there were any conflicts of interest, and who benefitted. If the beneficiaries donated any money to the political party that oversaw it, then Andrews has a lot to gain from such an inquiry.]
10.4
RC required.
CTar
Yes. This needs to be investigated by a judge, not a friendly accountant. We have had RCs in recent times over a few tens of thousands of dollars in union members funds being misused. On EW link the Victorian taxpayer was facing the loss of $1.2 billion in public money, after all normal safeguard processes had been deliberately bypassed.
Have a good day all.
[ sprocket_
Posted Thursday, March 19, 2015 at 6:18 am | Permalink
The Daily ToiletPaper it his morning…
…..The Daily Telegraph has confirmed that Education Minister Chris Pyne has told at least two of the eight independent senators that the government was deliberately creating the trigger for a double dissolution election within three months over the stalled university reform Bills ]
Looking more and more like another bluff/threat.
Usual tory SOP.
Next step the Senate cross benches call the bluff….
[The Australian reports Sophie Mirabella is keen to run again in Indi,]
Surely after the arrogant way she conducted herself while the sitting member, the Victorian Liberals would be glad to see the back of her? As would voters in Indi.
If Abbott’s fired up for an election in July, then I say bring it on.
The other thing about a DD is that the Coalition have not prpared for one at all. Whitlam in 1974 “banked up” the various things he wanted to do like Medibank, and then after the DD got them through the Double Sittting.
What would be the “legislative” point of a DD just so you could scrap the Clean Energy Finance Corporation? It would really be a waste of time.
But, hey, I’m up for a DD if Abbott wants one. Bring it on!
Rocket Rocket
Perhaps Tones real target is his own backbenchers + Senators ? Leave me in my job or I’ll wreck the joint.
ABC24
[Breaking news Australian among 22 people killed by gunmen at museum in Tunis: Tunisian PM]
Rabbithat 19 – can the party dump him before he gets back?
Yes they can, but a constitutional law expert told me that it is then a very interesting question as to whether he would continue as Caretaker PM or whether the GG would appoint a “new” caretaker PM (the person the Libs elected).
Apparently there are opinions both ways, but the GG would be entitled to leave Abbott as Caretaker PM, with the new Lib leader “running” to be PM at the election.
Now that would be funny!
poroti 34 – yes, deep down he is a nasty piece of work. Basically a bully. Always has been.
So Treasury have disowned the IGR and the advertising which was supposed to persuade us it was a worthy document?
Hockey and Abbott are the most accomplished snake-oil salesmen in the parliament and the complacent little noddies behind them in QT are the most gullible.
poroti
[on a burning orange lifeboat with red budgie smugglers flying from the stern.]
Severe air pollution ensues as the plastics and nylon burn.
I wonder what the reaction of the general public would be to a DD?
No credible PR campaign on its necessity has started yet. The voters might be cranky that they are forced to go and vote just because Tony thought it would be a good idea.
Not heard it myself. But Tim Pallas Vic treasurer was on with Jon Faine on ABC 774 and then former Vic Lib treasurer re east west
Here is twitter
https://mobile.twitter.com/774melbourne
The Federal section of the Age online front page this morning is stacked with articles criticising Tones and his team.
victoria/socrates..
This E/W link shonky business is a huge scandal ..I can’t see how Andrews WON’T call a Royal Commission..
What is the truth?
Former Treas. @michaelobrienmp denies #EWLink compo letter drawn up by consortia: “Drafted by Treasury + Govt lawyers” #Faine #springst
markjs
From whai i can glean, the Libs are putting the case that it was all above board
#EWLink: “They want to rip up legally binding contracts.. they know full well those contracts were valid” @michaelobrienmp #Faine
More lies
[The Abbott government says it has delivered a $570 million reduction in “regulatory burden” in 2014, but a huge proportion of those savings have yet to pass the Senate.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nearly-200m-of-abbott-governments-red-tape-savings-yet-to-pass-senate-20150318-1m2f1q.html
vic,
O’Brien’s conduct in this matter has been appalling and no amount of his whingeing and blame shifting is going to get him off the hook.
GG
I havent heard Faine interviewing O’Brien. Only seen what is on twitter. Someone is telling porkies. Who?
Of all the defeated Labor MPs that might get another run at the next election, Darren Cheeseman would just about be the least deserving.
Axing Swan would be poor form, though Ripoll can certainly go.
And if Labor wants to put the mayor of Townsville into federal parliament, surely Herbert is the obvious place for her to run.