The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)
The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.
o well i’ll look elsewhere for iraq — why does labor support? why does anyone trust govt? what safeguards? what command? what other countries? troops for votes that’s all it looks like. dangerous disgrace that could backfire enormously. damn turnbull for not acting before.
BB
Posted link on Saturday to Mike Seccombe article, this bit explains why Tony blows the whistle long & hard , just wait till Gallipoli Campaign starts…
Psychologists have long chronicled the differences in attitudes between those on the left and right of politics, and political operatives have long exploited them. In recent years an increasing convergence between social and medical science is unravelling a biological basis to this.
Peter Hatemi, of Pennsylvania State University and the University of Sydney, is by virtue of his eclectic academic qualifications in political science, genetics, psychology and psychiatry uncommonly qualified in this area of convergent science. Hatemi once told me of research suggesting that people see, hear and smell the world differently according to their political bent. He ticked off some psychological traits.
“People on the social left tend to be more open to new experiences. People on the economic left tend to be more neurotic. People on the social right tend to be more closed-minded, more focused on out-groups, more authoritarian, more militant, punitive and retribution-minded.”
I assume Australians are generally more conservative socially right.
Bemused @994:
I can see the reasons for your parallel, but I disagree. Telegrams died largely because they were supplanted by more advanced forms of the same method of communication.
Letters will always, I suspect, have sentimental value – and believe me, you can sell sentimental value.
Tricot
you’re basically arguing what I thought I was, so no worries!
I am in the Keating camp on Gallipoli.
he describes the view that it was somehow the birth of Australian as a nation as nonsense and proudly says he has never been there and never will.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/a-nation-reborn-at-anzac-cove-utter-nonsense-keating-20081030-5enw.html
a google will find plenty more.
Matt@1003
Telegrams, or at least certain types, had that same sentimental value.
Letters will eventually die, but first they will become much more expensive and the service poorer. That will further drive down the volume. They are in a death spiral.
Van Onselen giving Abbott great kudos for handling the backflip on GP tax so well and accepting mistake for lack of consultation with medical profession.
Guess van Onselen didn’t hear me yelling at Abbott that he should have mentioned consumers as well as medicos.
Kakuru @ 856
“That’s an oxymoron. If it’s written by that venal turd, it must be filth.”
I’m certainly not an expert in English (me fail English that’s unpossible) however, surely what you describe is a tautology rather than an oxymoron.
[Prime Minister, since you have now raised the Abbott Terror Alert Scale (ATAS™) to eight flags from the previous six, do you plan to inform the house whether your system of flags is finite, or can we expect more and more flags, the number tending towards infinity as the ATAS™ increases?]
don@972 – Love it. Abbott is so ripe for ridiculing.
Whoops wrong thread.
I’m with Keating as well. I’d prefer an event where we didnt get our asses handed to us on a plate as part of a pointless exercise dreamt up by a dipsomaniacal narcissist playing warships to be our defining moment.
Many private schools operate on a knife edge of profitability, either because they serve a clientele which cannot afford huge fees, or the original catchment area has shrunk (as in some rural private schools) or for some other valid reason.
If financial support was withdrawn, the schools would close, and the students would indeed turn up on the State School doorstep.
It is in the Government’s financial interest to subsidise the private school system, at least for struggling schools. Better to pay a proportion of the cost of schooling than the whole cost.
That leaves aside the indisputably rich private schools.
Though with clever accountants, there might not be enough of them to make much of a difference, just as the very rich often pay very little income tax.
Briefly 988
Yes it is grotesque Abbott invoking Gallipoli, I have been there,the bushfires had been there and was told it looked the closest it had looked since the original fighting, all blackened and bare. The wonderful promise of Ataturk to the Anzac mothers, picking up some bullet casing still lying around and then to hear Abbott on about “not being able to go with the troops”, as I am told he said today is just so sickening
rossmcg
[I am in the Keating camp on Gallipoli.]
As am I. I can admire the soldiers who fought and died (some of whom were my own relatives). But the mythology surrounding the Gallipoli campaign has snowballed.
SirGitOfSmeg
Yep, I meant tautology. Caught it after I sent it (as the caffeine belatedly kicked in).
But the take home message remains the same: Larry Pickering is a turd.
Probably…
A couple of questions when planning our wedding recently were “do you want me to instruct the guests not to live tweet the ceremony?” and “do you want to include a Facebook status update in the ceremony?” It takes all sorts. o_O
Dutton has been previously been reported as ‘close’ to abbott – but kicked in the nether regions anyway.
Wonder what Duttons version to it all is.
Also the cabinet leak is pretty quick off the mark – by the abbott side ??
[ Prime Minister Tony Abbott has used a cabinet meeting to deliver a thinly veiled rebuke of Peter Dutton over the former health minister’s handling of the GP co-payment.
And in an embarrassing leak from Monday night’s cabinet meeting, Fairfax Media has been told cabinet had a lengthy discussion about the co-payment.
Mr Abbott’s criticism of Mr Dutton came towards the end of the meeting as he summed up the debate, although he did not directly name the minister.
A cabinet minister who was part of the discussion told Fairfax Media that Mr Abbott said: “This issue has been mishandled, it has been mishandled until now.”
“Congratulations to Sussan for settling them {the medical community} down.”
That same cabinet minister said there was no doubt in his mind the comments were criticism of the former health minister.
Mr Dutton was moved into the immigration portfolio by Mr Abbott in December’s frontbench reshuffle.
The leak from cabinet is a clear sign that tensions continue to simmer in the Abbott government, even as the Prime Minister attempts to recover his government’s fortunes with a series of major policy announcements. ]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-delivers-rebuke-to-cabinet-minister-peter-dutton-over-gp-copayment-saga-20150303-13topm.html
don@1012
Several of those schools have gone broke in Victoria causing all sorts of grief and leaving public schools to take on their pupils.
All the more reason for them to not exist.
Some are also run by rather dubious groups including fundy nutters.
kakuru@1014
Absolutely!
There was a time when I thought of visiting Gallipoli, before it was fashionable.
But now, with all the nonsense that has been propagated, I could not go there.
I once visited Kranji war cemetery in Singapore and shed a quiet tear and reflected.
kakuru@1014
Unfortunately the jingoism continues to get ramped up yearly with commercialism not too thinly disguised either.
A respectful but basic remembering would be better.
I hope we get that after the 100 year anniverary but doubt it.
At this stage Shorten is doing the right thing re national security, not giving Abbott anything to exploit, it is by no means a great situation.
The question will come if Abbott goes a step too far and rather than talking about things actually does real damage,
I think they should however make more of a stand on metadata retention, e.g. As a minimum specify a warrant must be given for access and limiting the length of time data is kept, say 90 days.
In summary Labor need to be able to pick and choose national security issues and fight on some and others have cautious bipartisanship
mari
I’ve seen a few film clips of towns in Ukraine. They look just like news reels of Stalingrad or 1945 Berlin. There are also areas outside the towns that looked nothing more like the trenches of WWI.
We never learn. Civilians living in basements as a bullets fly and their homes slowly being destroyed. Young men still getting shot up due to pollies playing their “games”.
sound familiar
“The problem is that he [Pell] has been responding to every situation or debate as if there are only goodies and baddies … with himself as the goodie on the side of transparency and anyone who goes against [him] accused of being bad managers, bad custodians”.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/george-pell-popes-decree-will-cement-or-unhinge-australian-cardinals-rising-star-20150303-13tjkq.html
Don @1012:
If places like Hale are “operating on a knife-edge of profitability” despite charging $24,000 per student to the parents, then perhaps they should examine their cost structures rather than slugging the Government for another $4-5,000 per student in public funding.
Regarding post, all I know is buying on Ebay, delivery from the UK is much cheaper and quicker to arrive than from the US. About the only time I buy from the US is when I have no choice, because the post is usually a rip off.
So my thoughts are do the opposite of whatever the US does, and look at Royal Mail in the UK.
Often the delivery is an important part of your decision
bemused
If those private schools made motor cars they would have been left to fail years ago.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/george-pell-popes-decree-will-cement-or-unhinge-australian-cardinals-rising-star-20150303-13tjkq.htmlrll
Pell is in trouble with the Pope and the Vatican who would have thunk it?
Pell is an obnoxious up himself person who confirmed one of my kids.
[The second article, headlined “I Lussi del Moralizzatore” (“The Luxuries of the Moraliser”) included this week’s spectacular leaking of Pell’s expenses, replete with detailed receipts on six-figure apartment renovations, business class flights, bespoke robes, a generous payroll for personal assistants and even a $6650 kitchen sink.]
[1013
mari
http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-bloodiest-battles-of-world-war-i.php
Battle of Gallipoli (473,000 total casualties)
Allied troops were bogged down on the beaches and failed to achieve their objectives….The allies ended up losing 220,000 men to the Turks 253,000, and the Ottoman Empire earned a stunning victory.]
Gallipoli…completely futile suffering on an epic scale.
Question@1025
I have heard the postal service in the UK is subsidised for books and I don’t know what other items. At that end it is all bulk handling by the likes of Book Depository.
When it gets to Australia it is individual postal delivery and I don’t think Australia Post receives anything for its services.
I once wanted to return a book to the UK and it would have cost almost as much in postage as what I paid for book + postage when I ordered it.
BK@1026
Excellent point.
Matt@1024
Obviously you can’t read. My commiserations.
[geoffrey
o well i’ll look elsewhere for iraq — why does labor support?]
It is poll driven and the Essential poll makes for depressing reading on how easily people can be scared. Even if you include 9/11 terrorism is a long way down the list of things that can kill Westerner’s. It’s much more likely to kill Muslim’s. And in Australia it is bugger all… and we happily ignore domestic violence.
Unfortunately Shorten would be foolish to fight this human nature. I’m afraid the best we can hope for is that Abbott will make another gaffe in trying to milk the issue for all it is worth.
Peter Martin was talking about economics in today’s SMH, but it fits this issue just as well.
[Fear – the Abbott government’s weapon of choice.
What does a government do when it’s lost all authority? It tries to scare people, big time.]
Thanks for that bemused @1029, it would be interesting to know what the subsidies are, and if the economic benefit outweighs the cost..
[1024
Matt
Don @1012:
If places like Hale are “operating on a knife-edge of profitability” despite charging $24,000 per student to the parents, then perhaps they should examine their cost structures rather than slugging the Government for another $4-5,000 per student in public funding.]
Hale would be keeping their operating expenses quite separate from their capital accounts. If their operating budget is just barely in the black, that’s because they do not want to be seen to make a “profit” and to that end would make sure they spend their income.
Hale is a very well-endowed school, being the oldest school in WA and the beneficiary of all kinds of grants and bequests since its founding in 1858. The school site and its many improvements would be worth many hundreds of millions.
Of course, it is a bit of a coarse-grained argument to lump all schools outside state-provided education as “private” as the field stretches from extremely wealthy single sex schools for the elite to quite poor faith-based schools with a handful of kids.
At the end of the day, it is should be a case of in principle support for all schools but, with them’s that got money to get nothing.
However, any government which goes down this track – and I mean any government – runs foul of extremely well-entrenched and sophisticated lobby groups.
One way to make those who can really afford to pay, is to make schools of a private nature pay the full cost of their operations – as a school rather than charity organisation – and oblige such schools to pick up a load of social welfare education. In the latter, I do not mean some well meaning “scholarships” for a few kids from the North West as a token gesture.
A better definition for ‘private’ is ‘state subsidised’ which really is the true picture.
No one really cares what a school calls itself as long as it does its job well. Trouble is, a school is often cursed/blessed by its location.
In the UK the schools in the pits as it were are described as ‘sink’ schools. Strangely, not many of these schools are found outside poor housing estates.
Meanwhile, in Perth, everyone knows that if you went to a school in the ‘Western Suburbs’ this usually means one of the many church schools in the electorates of say Julie Bishop or Colin Barnett. Whether it is in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne or the North Shore schools of Sydney, everyone gets where you went to school.
It aint a government school.
ER
The Libs have decreased a point since last week [although Lib +Nat stayed at 40 both weeks – viz 38+3=40 and then 37+3=40].
So some rounding occurring.
Simplistically speaking the ‘lost’ Lib point went to ‘others’ who are up 1 point whilst the rest [ALP/GRN/PUP] stayed the same.
Which means the ALP 2PP share gained a tad this week but not enough to change the overall 2PP which was 53:47 both weeks.
So no swing to the Libs detected by ER.
dave
[A respectful but basic remembering would be better.]
Agreed. Silent reflection trumps self-aggrandising speeches and jingoism.
[I hope we get that after the 100 year anniverary but doubt it.]
I also doubt it. Watch out – the bandwagon has become a commercial juggernaut.
Question@1033
I have always understood this is all tied up in some sort of international agreement so, short of breaking the agreement, there is not much AP can do.
FFS – they never learn.
Voters need to develop theor own ‘value signal’ –
[ The Abbott government is now working on a fifth version of its Medicare policy after the prime minister declared its latest attempt to introduce a co-payment “dead buried and cremated” but the health minister said she had not finalised an alternative to achieve the same policy aims.
The government is retaining a freeze on the Medicare rebate that would force doctors to abandon bulk billing over time unless they finally agree to alternative budget savings – and it says its policy goal to restrict bulk billing to the “vulnerable” remains.
The health minister, Sussan Ley, said she was still negotiating with doctors about alternative Medicare savings as she abandoned the fallback policy of a $5 rebate cut announced by the prime minister last December and “put on hold” in January.
She left open the option for the government to achieve what it now calls a “value signal” for healthcare over time, by leaving in place a freeze on the Medicare rebate for four years or even longer if the doctors did not agree to alternative savings.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/03/coalition-working-on-fifth-incarnation-of-medicare-policy-after-copayment-killed
Briefly @1034:
And yet they still get thousands per student in taxpayers’ money every year, while public school teachers increasingly have to bring their own office supplies to work because of material shortages.
And yes, that was the case when I was on prac last semester – I was told to not do photocopying unless it was absolutely necessary, because the teachers had to pay (personally!) for all the photocopying they did for students. The latest textbooks were ~4-5 years old – they didn’t have the budget to update them. The computers in the library (all 6 of them!) were older than that. And the only reason that they had two class sets of laptops (for a school of 2,500 students) was that some kind soul had privately arranged for it. The school didn’t have the budget for that kind of purchase.
But places like Hale really, really need the public money, honest!
Tricot
No its simple. They can be set up for faith based reasons. They can be set up to cater for the “elite” education rich parents pay.
They are not taxpayer funded schools they are the public ones. Let the private ones no matter how they are set up succeed or fail on their own terms. That is user pays market philosophy.
No one is forcing the parents to pay to take their children to a private school its their choice. The consequences of that decision should flow from it too.
If children should have equality of education then they can all go to public schools.
Parents are free to make their choice including the greater or lesser education they get from doing so. If a school cannot meet minimum educational standards it is failing and should close
Don @1031:
Your snide aspersions aside, the rich private schools often receive more public funding then the (relatively) poor private schools.
They can afford better lobbyists, after all, and many of their alumni are to be found in the halls of power.
Public money is for public services. If a service is only available to households who can afford thousands of dollars in fees per year, it isn’t a public service. Therefore the case for public subsidy is extremely weak. If you want to buy a private service, pay for it out of private funds. Don’t expect a public subsidy.
It is ludicrous to claim that private schools reduce the burden on public schools. On the contrary, they make it harder for the public schools by taking students who have everything going for them in life and are therefore the easiest to educate, while leaving public schools to struggle with the students who are the hardest to educate. Private schools skew the demographic profile of the student populations of public schools in a way which makes the latter’s job harder. Private schools also siphon off some of the best teachers (educated at public expense).
We must reject the canard that private schools are doing us all a favour.
Fredex #1036
So the concern trolls who were out in force the day Ipsos came out might now settle down.
Musrum #947
Thanks for the tech advice.
If the TPP on medicines is passed, and medicines become more expensive, it will surely impact Medicare rebates.
I wonder if Hockey and Robb have discussed this (and doubt it).
Matt@1042
You have just made my point.
Nicholas @1043:
If anything, private schools are actively harming Australian social cohesion by promoting segregation along two separate faultlines: class-based (rich kids go to private school, the hoi polloi go to the public schools) and religious.
If the kids of rich, Islamophobic families had to mix with the kids of poorer families, immigrant families, refugee families and the like, perhaps we wouldn’t see the increasingly strong undercurrents of racism that we see in Australian society today. Not to mention that when they grow up and start getting involved in politics (either as donors or as politicians), they might actually have a halfway decent understanding of the fact that being poor’s not a picnic even in Australia.
The private schools are not “doing us all a favour”.
Briefly 1028
correct re Gallipoli and what about the returned soldiers & their problems? As well as my grandfather and Fredex?uncle I have had 4 people DM me on twitter to tell me horrific stories about the returned soldiers who were their relations.
And who was the chief supporter of ths doomed campaign none other than Winston Churchill
psyclaw
You can include me in the ‘concern trolls’.
I take your point, its were I was heading, but I’m still not ‘settled’ comfortably.
Glass half empty.