Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos delivers the government its best poll result since early November – and unlike Newspoll, it has Tony Abbott’s personal ratings up as well.

The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)

The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,075 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. mikehilliard@948

    The Australia that Camp Gallipoli celebrates is as dead as the soldiers who fought in the campaign.

    I can’t see why anyone would go.

    If my feelings are at all typical, it will be a monumental flop and deservedly so.

  2. Fredex

    Library opening times for Holland Park library (my local) in Brisbane – operated by the Brisbane City Council:

    Monday and Sunday: Closed
    Tuesday, Thursday and Friday: 10am – 5pm
    Wednesday: 1pm – 8pm
    Saturday: 9am – 1pm

  3. [@srpeatling: PM says on 100th anniversary of Gallipoli it is fitting that Australia & NZ are again making a military commitment]

    WWI was an enormous failure of foresight, strategy and policy and had profoundly devastating consequences for the belligerents.

    In relation to the Middle East, there was never a good reason for the Entente powers to be at war with the Ottomans. Had the British – and Churchill in particular – not been so obtuse it is likely they would have remained neutral throughout.

    Just as the Great War was the result of profound, entrenched and recurring stupidities, so the interminable warring in Iraq and Syria also derive from utter incompetence in western citadels.

    Abbott is right, though not in the way he means. Stupidity sent millions to their death in WWI and tens of millions perished in its sequel. The same fault is placing millions more in peril today.

    When will old men in Western capitals stop sending young men (and women) to a futile death?

  4. [For Sydney, Barangaroo represents the nadir. On 22 hectares of public land stretching along 1.2 kilometres of our city’s most available waterfront, the favoured developers have been gifted seemingly unfettered rights to build as they please. James Packer’s proposed tower, stuffed with a hotel, casino and units, poses as the pinnacle of greed.]

    http://architectureau.com/articles/sydney-risks-becoming-a-dumb-disposable-city-for-the-rich/?utm_source=ArchitectureAU&utm_campaign=e6340122a1-AAU_2015_03_03&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e3604e2a4a-e6340122a1-39629218

  7. Guytaur @872:

    [How long until Abbott tries to sell of Australia Post?]

    Do you think even this bunch of spivs could possibly be that stupid?

    I almost hope so – even an attempt to flog off AP would make the LNP unelectable for at least two elections. Australians have had a gut-full of privatisation that only ever seems to result in increased prices, increased profits and more Budget woes down the track – requiring, of course, more privatisation.

  8. It seems that the Liberals really want to make sure that no-one on a moderate or higher income goes along to any of those horrible bulk billing clinics. Can’t have the lower orders mixing with their betters, can we?

  10. Leroy Lynch@955

    Full Essential Poll details.

    Essential Fed: TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
    Primaries LIB 37(-1) NAT 3(0) ALP 41(0) GRN 9(0) PUP 2(0) OTH 9(+1)

    Interesting issue questions on Security, Multiculturalism, Triggs, and Greyhound racing.

    http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_150303.pdf

    A question on greyhound racing?

    It’s really more an issue of animal cruelty manifesting itself in that particular ‘industry’.

    I learnt at an early age that greyhound racing was probably the most honest form of racing as the dogs didn’t carry a little crook on their back!

  11. Leroy Lynch @904:

    Only with a Coalition Government (and a media desperate to cover for them and help them flog their bad policies) is 46% “strong support”.

    “Strong support” should be at least 60% – a healthy majority. What Abbott has, after months of drum-beating about how The Jihadis Are Coming, The Jihadis Are Coming!, isn’t even a majority!

    How that can be “strong support” escapes me.

  12. Matt@957

    Guytaur @872:

    How long until Abbott tries to sell of Australia Post?


    Do you think even this bunch of spivs could possibly be that stupid?

    I almost hope so – even an attempt to flog off AP would make the LNP unelectable for at least two elections. Australians have had a gut-full of privatisation that only ever seems to result in increased prices, increased profits and more Budget woes down the track – requiring, of course, more privatisation.

    What is your solution to the problems that beset Australia Post?

    BTW, when was the last time you sent a telegram?

  13. I am the granddaughter of a Gallipoli veteran, who survived with a bullet in his head, which caused massive mood swings when it moved and he would try to kill my mum and grandmother, then when the bullet moved again would revert back to the placid man he was.I don’t remember him as I was a baby when he died in late 1940s. Seeing Abbott invoking Gallipoli just enrages me

  17. [The time for physical libraries is over, unless they reinvent themselves.]

    Council libraries are one of the most important public spaces for parents and children that exist.

  18. Matt@964

    Bemused @862:

    Please describe the problems. Last I checked AP is still making a profit, is it not?

    It is making growing losses on the mail service which it cross-subsidises from things like parcel delivery.

    The danger is that the Govt will sell off the parcel delivery service and leave a loss making mail service in public hands.

  22. My question without notice is to the Prime Minister:

    [ Prime Minister, since you have now raised the Abbott Terror Alert Scale (ATAS™) to eight flags from the previous six, do you plan to inform the house whether your system of flags is finite, or can we expect more and more flags, the number tending towards infinity as the ATAS™ increases?

    Has the Prime Minister informed the relevant flag makers of the need to ramp up production? Will these flags be made by honest hard working Australians?

    Further, is the ATAS™ a logarithmic scale like the Richter Scale for earthquakes, or is it a linear scale?
    ]

  23. It looks like Abbott is trying to wind up Labor on all this security stuff, no doubt hoping Shorten will say something that can be used to demonise Labor.

    So far Shorten has responded very well I think. With each announcement he has come out in general support of ensuring security but with some reservations and limiting of future support implied.

    It strikes me as a bit like a game of chicken. Either Abbott will in frustration eventually come out with something that is so over the top that he loses the bulk of people or perhaps Shorten will crack. I think Abbott will be the one to misfire first, because he obviously has far less self control than Shorten, but you never know.

    So far Shorten’s tactic has kept the Labor Party’s vote strong despite people approving Abbott’s actions on security, so I can’t agree with those saying he needs to come out strongly against Abbott on this issue. The best he might do is get a few current Greens to vote Labor – while vast swathes of people would desert Labor to vote Liberal.

  27. Matt

    [Only with a Coalition Government (and a media desperate to cover for them and help them flog their bad policies) is 46% “strong support”.]

    I bet it has a heavy skew toward older voters, who seem less troubled by metadata retention.

  28. [It strikes me as a bit like a game of chicken. Either Abbott will in frustration eventually come out with something that is so over the top that he loses the bulk of people or perhaps Shorten will crack.
    ]
    If will be interesting to see what happens forts, Shorten cracks or Abbott runs out of flags,

  31. bemused,

    Nah, you are just reliving your glory days as telegram deliverer on your Malvern Star back in the good old days.
    You just liked the uniform and the hat, I’m sure.

  32. [So don’t let the Government flog off the profitable parts.

    That’s just privatization-by-stealth.]

    I’m not sure it is that stealthy?

    On the other hand I’ve never understood selling profitable enterprises (not all of which are sustainable in private hands seeking extraordinary profits) but keeping unprofitable ones

  33. Matt@980

    Bemused @968:

    So don’t let the Government flog off the profitable parts.

    That’s just privatization-by-stealth.

    BINGO!

    And of course leave the unprofitable bits to the taxpayer.

  34. Greensborough Growler@981

    bemused,

    Nah, you are just reliving your glory days as telegram deliverer on your Malvern Star back in the good old days.
    You just liked the uniform and the hat, I’m sure.

    Not quite. But I did work on a study which led to the closure of the Telegram service.

  35. Zoomster back @806

    Sorry, I don’t buy the argument that parents who send their kids to private schools are ‘paying tax twice’.

    For instance, I don’t have a boat – never had one – yet part of my taxes go to pay for light houses, places to moor boats and so on. I pay these taxes because I recognise I am part of a wider community.

    When it comes to education, I no longer participate in any form of government or private education, my kids have gone and I do not get one penny piece benefit (directly) from my taxes for education. I my case, to use your argument, I am paying my taxes with no benefit at all.

    To push my point further regarding “saving the tax payer money by entering into a private school arrangement”, it just so happens that the state funds private education to the extent of 60% to 70% of the total cost. Now, to use and extreme case – I drive my BMW to work rather than take the train – thereby saving the taxpayer money by no taking the train. Am I therefore entitled to demand a refund because I am “saving” the tax payer money by not using a state provided function? I think not.

    And, who actually pays for the roads I drive my car on when I do not own a car and use public transport only?

    I would suggest that in a complex society having some call of just where my taxes “go” is fruitless.

  36. 4 of us went to Gallipoli some years ago on a very cold winter’s day.

    It was only physically seeing 2 things that brought home to us what an unmitigated slaughter it was.

    Firstly the beach/cliff itself.
    A killing ground for those attempting to slog up a sandy cliff with minimal cover whilst under fire from above.
    Secondly the maze of trenches both sides established above, fluctuating in position and often only a few metres apart and infested with disease and dead and wounded from ‘human wave’ attacks.

    Possibly some 200,000 casualties in total, maybe 100,000 dead, the numbers are disputed.

    Sheer absolute waste and disregard for human life, to glorify and sanctify it with pious platitudes and the rigmarole of militarism is totally obscene.

    BTW – my uncle was there for the 7 months or so it took, ‘mentioned in dispatches’, but simply would not talk about it at all.

  37. WeWantPaul@982

    So don’t let the Government flog off the profitable parts.

    That’s just privatization-by-stealth.


    I’m not sure it is that stealthy?

    On the other hand I’ve never understood selling profitable enterprises (not all of which are sustainable in private hands seeking extraordinary profits) but keeping unprofitable ones

    You don’t understand that???

    Why then you can claim that the unprofitable parts under public ownership just prove the superiority of private enterprise which can run its parts at a profit.

    Which then is used to justify further privatisation.

    Rather an elegant scam isn’t it?

  38. [963
    mari

    I am the granddaughter of a Gallipoli veteran…Seeing Abbott invoking Gallipoli just enrages me]

    It’s all so grotesque.

  39. MTBW,

    It’s understood the Reserve Bank has left rates unchanged because the full effects of the February cut are yet to be felt across the economy.

    Despite no change today, interest rates are still at record lows and many economists continue to predict further cuts in 2015, which could take place as early as April.

  42. agree with all re gallipoli reference – atrocious

    let’s me get this clear – this is same plan that a week ago was denied by abbott – as having discussed late last year

    also are there equivalent US or other countries on ground?

    the biggest danger seems capture if troops near front … given disarray of iraqi troops and possible price on head surely this is likely to happen

    then hell will break out

    or has this all been thought through

    why on earth did labor support this???? wilkie is correct

  43. a week ago it seemed dangerous that a nutter like abbott was in charge of govt – a week is not too long in politics

    labor on iraq and metadata

    are they just poll driven and that’s it? no agenda setting

  44. Matt@990

    Bemused @987:

    It’s a beautiful scam….even if it does make me want to throw up a little every time I meet a neoliberal.

    Postal services all around the world face the same issues with the decline in standard mail and falling revenue vs fixed costs of delivery.

    The mail service will die eventually – just like the telegram.

    AP has done a creditable job re-inventing Post Offices as transaction centres and building its parcel service.

    Any government will have to permit higher charges and reduced delivery services to cut mail losses until the service eventually dies. An era is passing.

  45. Abbott with eight flags completely outflags Obama, Cameron and Key who manage with two flags each.

    One can only assume he picked up a box of flags cheaply and took them out of the box to check for silverfish.

  46. bemused @951

    If my feelings are at all typical, it will be a monumental flop and deservedly so.

    It will be bigger than the actual landing itself.
    Tony will be sided by every last flag they can find.
    As Essential found Australians are terrified of terrorists & will lap it up.

  48. GG

    It’s understood the Reserve Bank has left rates unchanged because the full effects of the February cut are yet

    It was favoured to happen by the experts, has anyone plotted how they rate at predicting rate fall/ rise, my guess is going the opposite way is a dead cert.Or at least use a dart board for real accuracy

  49. Oh and Zoomster, further to 985, the threat by parents to flood the state system with kids if there was no tax payer support for them and their kids, has never been tested to my knowledge.

    This is an old chestnut argument used when the “I pay twice for education” comes out.

    The obvious riposte is, of course, that the money no longer spent on private education is immediately channelled into the state system to make up the short fall – and to cater for the flood – not.

    At this point, one could argue, that a properly, fully funded state education system would attract the vast bulk of students, leaving those the freedom who genuinely to want to pay for a private education the freedom to do so – recognising that their freedom of choice comes at their cost.

    Apart from Australia, this is basically how the state versus private thing is worked out.

    It only seems to be in Oz where 30% of parents not only want to pay taxes and have a choice and then gripe when their private choice is not fully funded by the state.

    Since Bob Menzies found an excuse to fund Science Blocks way back when (because the Russians put Sputnik up) for private schools, and probably before this, the private sector in education is more than happy to have its nose in the trough of government largesse.

    I have nothing against private schools and education as the same arguments apply to Medicare versus private health insurance – the latter I have had for ever. However, I do not put my hand out for a “discount” on the basis I am saving taxpayers money by belonging to a private health fund.

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