Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

A somewhat surprising status quo result from Essential Research this week, but plenty of bad news for Tony Abbott in the numbers for all that.

True to form, Essential Research bucks the trend in recording little change this week, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens steady on 9%, Palmer United up one to 3%, and two-party preferred unchanged at 54-46. Reflecting other polling, Tony Abbott is now running third as preferred Liberal leader on 11%, behind Malcolm Turnbull on 24% and Julie Bishop on 21%. A semi-regular question on leader attributes is particularly interesting at this point in time, with Tony Abbott up eight points since early December on “erratic” and down nine on “capable”, together with smaller adverse movements on other measures. However, Bill Shorten’s ratings are slightly worse than last time, which I’m inclined to put down to this week’s survey being a somewhat bad sample for Labor, hence their surprising failure to record any improvement on voting intention despite a strong result last week.

Further questions find a 34-34 draw on the question of whether Australia should become a republic, compared with 31-31 when the question was last raised in October; 26% in support of the reintroduction of knights and dames with 46% opposed; and 14% supportive of the Prince Philip knighthood with 69% opposed. Strikingly, a question on the minimum wage finds it to be deemed too low by 61% and too high by only 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,096 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 20 of 22
1 … 19 20 21 22

  1. [WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, February 4, 2015 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

    Had they just paid their taxes, the rich and the middle classes, there would be no greek national debt: not a euro’s worth.

    BW we are not in an equitable jurisdiction chamber where one has to do equity to get equity, nor must one come with clean hands. All your bad faith talk is just irrelevant bullsh1t attempting to make a complex situation look simple and an average position look good.]

    The greeks went into this on the basis of bad faith. The bad faith involved not taxing themselves, rorting government expenditure, borrowing more than they pay back and lying about it. Big Time. This was not some aberration of a handful of oligarchs. It was the national sport.

    SYRIZA represents a return to bad faith. They have promised that which they cannot deliver. They know it.

    SYRIZA has commenced their Government with decisions which are bad faith because they represent unilateral abrogation of agreements. These decisions include spending more money which, of course, they do not have.

    They have compounded this bad faith by pretending that they intend to honour their debts.

    The SYRIZAN Government has been quick off the mark with some particularly nasty stuff as well:

    (1) First meeting with a foreign ambassador: Russian. Russia is run by a homophobic, journalist murdering, territory grabbing imperialist. Nice.
    (2) First official visit by Tsipras to any place? To a memoral of Nazi murders of villagers. Nice.
    (3) First choice of Coalition partner? ANEL led by Kammenos who is a homophobe and whose tit for tat is to put of gay marriage legislation. Oh and his an anti-semite, an anti muslim and an anti-Bhuddist. Nice.
    (4) Need to do an international deal and it requires ratting on your ideological brothers in Spain – Pademos – no problems. Nice.

    The Greens hailed SYRIZA because because it fulfills the Greens’ Trot ensemble wet dream of sticking it to he neo-liberals, the germans, the Finns, the Netherlanders, the WB, the IMF, and the banks. It is ideological, folks.

    The reality is that SYRIZA is the embodiment of greek bad faith. IMHO, you can’t cut a deal with them because you know perfectly well that if it suits them, they will break the deal.

    What will come out of all this? I don’t have a clue.

    Should the Greeks have elected governments that prevented tax avoidance better. Probably. Should the elected governments have been so lax. probably not.
    Should lenders have done a due diligence. You would think so.

    Who should pay the price now? Who knows!

    Is their elected government entitled to govern – only a clown would suggest no.

  3. [The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike · 36m 36 minutes ago
    Gillard had far more big hitters coming out to support her than Abbott’s had so far.]

  4. Au contraire Dave, Abbott’s failure isnt indicative of Shorten’s success.Those profits before their time Arbib/Bitar realised leadership has a tragically reduced shelf life – although there is no shelf life in Shorten’s case – live by the knife die by the knife.

    TBA like Oates at the Pole, the Tone is going outside now and may be a while.

  6. Elder’s latest

    [And as for Turnbull, well … when he was leader the first time, conservatives were terrified he was going to remake the party in his image. They made him hire party hacks like Chris Kenny and Peta Credlin, rather than the brilliant analysts he surrounded himself with at Goldman Sachs. And if you’re worried that Tony Abbott is high-handed and not consultative, wait until you give Malcolm Turnbull a second wind.]
    [In Charlotte Bronte’s novel Jane Eyre, the heroine meets a guy name Rochester and they hit it off. In a modern novel Jane and Rochester would be all Fifty Shades of Rochester in the first few pages, but in order to consummate their relationship Jane has to wait until Rochester’s house burns down and his mentally-ill wife dies. So too, this government will have to be confronted with the exhaustion and rejection of its mendacious austerity program before it turns to Turnbull.]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/im-prime-minister-get-me-out-of-here.html

  7. [Mr Sinodinos, a former Abbott loyalist, described his support for the stricken leader as “ongoing” (but) “not unconditional” on Sky News.

    Asked if Mr Abbott would be prime minister next week, Senator Sinodinos replied, “Comrade, ask me next week”.

    Liberals viewed that intervention as crucial with one calling it “extremely telling”.

    “Arthur’s comment makes it more much more serious,” said another senior Liberal, “people will now look around to see if someone is starting to count for an actual candidate.”]

    [Senator Sinodinos said Mr Abbott should look beyond his own communication failures to poorly designed policies such as the Medicare co-payment, arguing the proposed six-month consultation period in the repackaged policy was “far too long on a issue that should have been settled last year”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leadership-speculation-at-fever-pitch-as-arthur-sinodinos-calls-pms-judgment-into-question-20150204-1367qx.html

  8. Did I hear Sabra Lane say tonight that Sinodinis is a highly respected member of the Liberal Party. Perhaps him standing down as a minister because of corruption allegations was just a dream?

  10. Why would the Libs re-enact the disaster of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years?

    @TBA because they know the only other alternative is to re-enact the disaster of the 2007 Federal Election.

  12. [Tom Hawkins
    Posted Wednesday, February 4, 2015 at 7:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Kenny says this of Abbott

    … in political terms, he is already bankrupt and trading while insolvent.

    That’s quite a good line.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-leadership-in-meltdown-as-siege-mentality-grips-canberra-20150204-13651z.html ]

    Kenny is very much the pessimist in this article. He sounds very downcast over the fate of Abbott and by implication the government as a whole.

    Kenny is yet another MSM person who boosted Abbott and now can hardly believe what is happening to his hero.

  13. [ He could always declare CC a conscience issue and let the cards fall where they may. ]

    No, because its an issue of Science, not Conscience. He would look weak, be obviously pandering to the idiot right of his party AND look like an idiot when he tries to explain his decision.

    [ Why would the Libs re-enact the disaster of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years? ]

    Because they are ideologically driven morons of course. Have you been keeping up with current events over the last year or so??

  14. victoria:

    Thanks for that link. His dot points of what Abbott stands for should be a stark reminder for all journalists who like to portray him as an ordinary joe, in touch with everyday Australians.

  16. Lion head on Richo makes a great point about he and his fellow cross benchers. He said they are reported as if they are a political party when they actually “struggle to even agree what day of the week it is”.

  21. Hmm, I thought I had commented on this this morning but I can’t see it. Apologies if I’ve got forum blindness. And the earlier discussion is quite old now (almost a day!) so soz about that two.

    [“An election can be refused for being to early.”

    Not properly, in my view.]

    Scenario 1:

    A general election returns a hung parliament. One major party leader negotiates a clear agreement on confidence – some of the crossbench announce they would never support the other party – and is commissioned as PM. Six months later, with no major legislation obstructed in the HoR the PM advises a new election (without consulting the crossbench).

    Scenario 2:

    A long-term, now deeply unpopular government is heavily defeated. One populist measure they had tried in their last term was a reform of parliamentary superannuation. Within the first few months it emerges that a drafting error in the legislation has created an anomaly: if an existing member retires at election within the next year they will actually double-dip and get an extra payout.
    Soon a number of long-term MPs including two new cabinet ministers announce they will retire at the next election. Three months later the new PM cites this as a need for renewal in the new government, to provide stability in laying down the long term program, and advises a new election.

    In both scenarios, there is no question that the dissolution should be granted?

  22. The big question in my mind is whether Turnbull will be able to withstand the insistent calls for an election to confirm his mandate. Can he really dodge that for 18 months or will people just get more and more pissed off.

  23. {Obviously scenario 2 is farfetched, that a new PM would go through the disruption of an early election just to pay off a handful of old stagers. Bit it is not, I think, far-fetched beyond possibility.}

  24. [George Megalogenis @GMegalogenis · 12m 12 minutes ago
    Costello, Kennett and now Siinodinos (Howard’s COS ) have all taken shots at Tony Abbott. Appears the grown-ups don’t like who’s in charge.]

    Yep.

  26. [This is a low flying person]
    Referring yet again to former Treasurer Peter Costello, 7.30 Report, August 6, 2008.
    Keating of course…

  27. The strategy of “Its the voters fault” is rife with our wonderful journo’s (who have no responsibly it appears). IMHO an unprecedented and dangerous tactic. Hopefully Baird will be toast because of it.

  28. Martin I can’t see any reason why the GG would refuse in the second scenario as the PM clearly has a majority.

    I think they also wouldn’t refuse in the first scenario, although an alternative is at least arguable.

  32. [Did I hear Sabra Lane say tonight that Sinodinis is a highly respected member of the Liberal Party. Perhaps him standing down as a minister because of corruption allegations was just a dream?]

    His colleagues will feel that not hiding his activities well enough to end up getting fingered is dreadfully sloppy of him but will admit it’s a professional hazard they all face.

  35. In the latest news from the front

    Stephen Mayne ‏@MayneReport · 3m3 minutes ago
    AFR: “Speculation is hardening around a shift to Turnbull as leader, Julie Bishop staying put & Morrison replacing Hockey as Treasurer”. Yes

  38. And here is Phil Coorey’s piece

    [PHILLIP COOREY AND JOANNA HEATH
    Tony Abbott’s hold on the leadership has deteriorated with former minister and adviser to John Howard, Arthur Sinodinos, refusing to pledge total support or guarantee the Prime Minister will be in the job this time next week.

    “Comrade, come and ask me next week,’’ Senator Sinodinos said at the end of an explosive interview on Sky News on Wednesday .

    Senator Sinodinos said the government’s direction was flawed but a change of personality alone would not fix its problems.

    In what some regarded as a tacit endorsement of Malcolm Turnbull, Senator Sinodinos counselled that if there were to be a change, the replacement must bring with them a strategic shift. At no time did he state Mr Abbott must stay in the job.

    Speculation is hardening around a shift to Mr Turnbull as leader, Julie Bishop staying as deputy and Foreign Minister, and Scott Morrison replacing Joe Hockey as Treasurer.

    One condition being placed on Mr Turnbull returning is that he does not try to embrace a policy of carbon trading, the issue which split the party and ended his leadership in 2009.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/arthur_sinodinos_points_to_spill_CQb62tMOcS3NxiwduqcuII

  39. [& Morrison replacing Hockey as Treasurer]

    I don’t know that’s necessarily a good move for the coalition. Not sure Morrison has the skill to nuance an economic message. But whatever. Perhaps if MT is leader it won’t matter so much.

  40. TBA

    As far as I know, there’s hardly any mention of the Lib leadershit by Labor Parliamentarians.

    It’s mostly the media and the Libs themselves, with the occasional commentary by National Parliamentarians.

    Abbott is right for once. A lot of navel-gazing.

  41. [Senator Sinodinos counselled that if there were to be a change, the replacement must bring with them a strategic shift.]

    code for Hockey gets the bullet too.

  45. BW, you seem a little aggressive towards the Greeks, like they’ve plucked some moral fibre of your’s. I’ve responded to bit and pieces:

    [While these might look delightful to greek working folk, cedit at 20% will come to bite them in the bum.]

    That’s on existing bonds that may be facing a haircut. If those bonds’ face value is cut, yields on Greek bonds issued in the future will not be as high, because the risk of default will be lower due to higher servicability/lower outstanding debt! And that’s why the Greek Govt wants to write it off.

    [Um, the Greeks evaded tax of around 30 billion euros for decades. If they had not done that one thing there would be no greek national debt.]

    And the banks knew it. And they still signed up, voluntarily, to issue the Greek Govt the loans, which they slid through the (still) remarkably loose regulations by showing the Greek Govt how to use some creative accounting tricks. But yeah, because it’s the greek people’s fault.

    [And, contrary to the idyllic view of the workers perpetrated by the Greens ideologues on Bludger, everyone was rorting the system, not just the rich. The only comment here is that he rich were probably better at it, which is why they were rich and stayed rich.]

    I refer back to my point on the trust deficit the people have with the Greek State. Why would anyone pay taxes if everyone knows (i) those near the top don’t (including the Greek Orthodox Church) and (ii) almost every euro raised goes to pay a loan that was foisted upon the population by deception? That isn’t a social contract I’d sign up to. Don’t forget that this is a country has a fractured recent history, including much meddling by the west, and has a ‘tax avoiding culture’ bred under a very long history of domination from the outside to contend with.

    [Had they just paid their taxes, the rich and the middle classes, there would be no greek national debt: not a euro’s worth.]

    Likewise, if the banks had properly assessed the Greek state’s capacity to raise revenue, they wouldn’t have issued the loans. Both sides were greedy, one side is paying much more than the other.

    Varoufakis has made it clear he wants to stay in the EZ, and that he wants to find an orderly path to debt reduction. I’ve been following him for close to 5 years, and he’s been proposing reforms to cut the cost of the Greek public service and pension schemes for at least that long. People call him “left” but as an economist, he’s much more of an institutionalist than a Marxist – of course, they share a focus on political power and its economic consequences.

    He’s also made it clear to debt holders that the Greek Covt won’t be able to increase tax revenues in the short term without the Govt also showing Greek tax-payers that they can improve local provision of services. The only way this can be done is through debt write-offs, which will give space for fiscal expansion. People may be convinced to contribute their fair share to the operations of the state if the monies are seen to return to them in services. If taxes are just going to pay interest on oppressive loans, there is no chance of that happening.

    In game theory, that’s called a credible threat. In contrast, saying you won’t accept a debt reduction, when the alternative is default and disorder, is a non-credible threat, or cheap talk. Varoufakis knows this, and so do a large number of hedge funds.

    [The Greens hailed SYRIZA because because it fulfills the Greens’ Trot ensemble wet dream of sticking it to he neo-liberals, the germans, the Finns, the Netherlanders, the WB, the IMF, and the banks. It is ideological, folks.]

    That might be true of some, but is a false perception of SYRIZA’s reform path on their part.

    [The reality is that SYRIZA is the embodiment of greek bad faith. IMHO, you can’t cut a deal with them because you know perfectly well that if it suits them, they will break the deal.]

    Like I said, when the options are less money or no money, creditors will take less money.

    More broadly, in a deflationary economy, the story becomes return of capital, not return on capital. Greece is just one large example of this, but expect to see more.

  48. poroti:

    His leadership is untenable. This chitter chatter can’t continue, yet Abbott has demonstrated repeatedly he doesn’t have the skill for the business of governing, and so it stands to reason the backbench unrest won’t go away while he’s the leader.

  49. TBA @116:

    First, low interest rates aren’t always a good thing. In this case, they’re because the RBA is trying monetary policy to goose the economy after a year of Coalition government.

    Second, cash rates when Howard left were 6.25%. When Abbott took office, they were 2.5%. What was that about governments and interest rates?

Comments Page 20 of 22
1 … 19 20 21 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *