True to form, Essential Research bucks the trend in recording little change this week, with the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens steady on 9%, Palmer United up one to 3%, and two-party preferred unchanged at 54-46. Reflecting other polling, Tony Abbott is now running third as preferred Liberal leader on 11%, behind Malcolm Turnbull on 24% and Julie Bishop on 21%. A semi-regular question on leader attributes is particularly interesting at this point in time, with Tony Abbott up eight points since early December on “erratic” and down nine on “capable”, together with smaller adverse movements on other measures. However, Bill Shorten’s ratings are slightly worse than last time, which I’m inclined to put down to this week’s survey being a somewhat bad sample for Labor, hence their surprising failure to record any improvement on voting intention despite a strong result last week.
Further questions find a 34-34 draw on the question of whether Australia should become a republic, compared with 31-31 when the question was last raised in October; 26% in support of the reintroduction of knights and dames with 46% opposed; and 14% supportive of the Prince Philip knighthood with 69% opposed. Strikingly, a question on the minimum wage finds it to be deemed too low by 61% and too high by only 6%.
Well LU I think the Greeks are going to get a lesson in German economics. Do you really think Berlin will stand by and accept Greek defiance ?
ESJ,
German economics seems to be “Do it our way or fck off”.
No Consultation Tony
From News.com.au
But MPs are still angry that Mr Abbott changed his personal mobile number late last year, leaving backbenchers unable to contact him directly with their concerns.
“We wanted to talk to him directly and none of us had his number. It’s just not a genuine consultative style,” said one.
[Well LU I think the Greeks are going to get a lesson in German economics. Do you really think Berlin will stand by and accept Greek defiance ?]
What are they going to do, invade?
Do you really think the Germans are going to be punked by the Greeks ? They have minimal Greek debt (now), they’ll turn off the credit tap and expel from the euro. There just waiting for syriza to give them a pretext.
And a useful lesson will be given to Southern Europe at large by Berlin.
The ascension of Turnbull will be good for Labor.
1. It will force Labor to really focus on policy development.
2. Turnbull will get a period of grace. If he says there is a line in the sand, then people will give him an opportunity to demonstrate that. What it tells you is where Labor really is in the polls. (it ain’t 57/43).
3. Apres Turnbull, the deluge!
4.Turnbull’s back up is still the same old numpties that have delivered for Abbott. His fine army of misfits and putrids may not deliver anything of substance.
5. Recession in the latter part of the year is a real possibility. How does Turnbull move away from the Liberal debt orthodoxy that has dominated their out pouring s for so many years.
Well, I think in (farfetched) scenario 2 the GG would be perfectly entitled to say:
“You have a recent commission and a sizeable majority. If you want to have a reshuffle that is within your power but the popular expression of an election must be respected. Until you can advise me of unworkability in parliament there’ll be no snap election.”
Not saying they would say it, but I think there should at least be the question.
Fess @961:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q
“Low-altitude flier” 😛
LU
You have yet to address the fundamental issue. It is not actually about the numbers.
It is whether anyone can trust any deal with the greeks.
Confessions
Reminds me of the Lib Kevin Oh-Lemon vs Gillard attack ad.
You are wrong GG, the policy machine of Laurie ferguso, vamvakinou and shorten is ready for Turnbull.
Morrison as Treasurer? Sorry folks, the Budget Speech is cancelled as it is a national security matter! Great way of communicating.
Tom.
ESJ,
They have studied the German model for dealing with recalcitrant Governments well.
Be afraid…….
Tom,
It’s a “Go to Water Matter”.
[You have yet to address the fundamental issue. It is not actually about the numbers.
It is whether anyone can trust any deal with the greeks.]
If the markets were less stupid, had a memory longer than a gold fish or could look past greed to see the ‘big fat profit’ was never going to happen, the greeks might have real problems for decades.
The ‘real’ markets will be lining up to burn more cash before the 2nd quarter is out.
Yes GG but the Germans are always ready to run remedial lessons for slow learners.
GG:
FWIW Turnbull (or JBishop ftm) leading the Liberals is going to result in a huge sigh of relief across the country that the 2nd rotten apple is finally despatched. Labor should expect to see the polls rebound for the coalition.
Personally if they make the switch, they’d be mad to rush to an election, but instead take time to grow that person into the job, settle the backbench horses, and reset away from the Abbott/Credlin agenda.
Raaraa:
Only less juvenile.
ESJ,
How did you go?
Meanwhile in SW WA several fires and another town called “indefensible” .One fire so far burning 58,000 hectares.
[
Coorey on Sky calls Arfur’s interjection “The beginning of the end game for Tony Abbott”
]
On hearing of Arthur’s interjection, Abbott was seen responding in a similar fashion to Bill Paxton in Aliens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
Game Over Man, GAME OVER!
William
I am finding BWs clear hatred for Greece and Greeks perilously close to overt racism. Think for a second and substitute Jewish and Israeli every time BW saws Greeks or Greece and I think youi would have an international incident. Ditto Muslem for Greek or even Pommy and UK.
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/keatonhj/use-liberally-toilet-rolls-feat-tony-crappitt/description
Found this on Crikey’s Tips and Rumours.
Careful DTT you’ll raise deblonay with comments like that.
ESJ, the last thing “the Germans” want is for Greece to leave the EuroZone. Greece is in this mess because it gave away it’s monetary independence. What it needs right now is stimulus, and it can’t do that because of EZ “stability” rules. It would not be punishing to for it to be expelled, if that is even possible.
dtt,
You called me a racist because I opined you couldn’t add up the other day.
Don’t you think you are a little overwrought and hysterical again!
poroti:
We have smoke drifting from Northcliffe fires, but also from a hay truck that exploded on a major highway to the NE and caused a bushfire.
Not good.
Deblonay is googling now for an especially boring turgid article to paste…..
[Morrison as Treasurer? Sorry folks, the Budget Speech is cancelled as it is a national security matter! Great way of communicating.]
Morrison would be worse than Hockey.
The prospect of him as Treasurer is tantalising.
confessions
Stay safe. Eyes out for embers. Just saw on news a poor bugger in Perth was killed in the street by a lightning strike.
[ESJ, the last thing “the Germans” want is for Greece to leave the EuroZone. Greece is in this mess because it gave away it’s monetary independence. What it needs right now is stimulus, and it can’t do that because of EZ “stability” rules. It would not be punishing to for it to be expelled, if that is even possible.]
But if it leaves then it can devalue its currency (the drachma) which magically makes all its debt smaller, which is its only hope for repaying the debt.
[Well, I think in (farfetched) scenario 2 the GG would be perfectly entitled to say:
“You have a recent commission and a sizeable majority. If you want to have a reshuffle that is within your power but the popular expression of an election must be respected. Until you can advise me of unworkability in parliament there’ll be no snap election.”
Not saying they would say it, but I think there should at least be the question.]
I hardly think the GG will start entering into a political debate about when a PM’s call for an election is valid, at least where it is clear they command a majority in the HoR.
My favourite Bill Paxton line from Aliens is:
“How could they ‘cut the power’ man? They’re ANIMALS!”
Either that or (after the automatic pulse rifles have done their mucky business):
“Maybe they’re demoralized, man.”
Whatever, the message is clear: Abbott cornered is Abbott dangerous. Demoralized? Nope. How could he cut the power? Let me list the ways…
Don’t worry about Turnbull BTW. Like Hockey, he is a creature of habit: he’ll stuff up spectacularly.
Which in turn is the problem for the Germans. A significant portion of German “competitiveness” comes from the way they undervalued the Deutschmark when joining with the Eurozone – basically, they got a free devaluation that their European competitors did not, and are now telling the European periphery that they need to go through nominal devaluation (rather than relative devaluation by allowing 4-5% inflation in Germany for a few years).
Four of their 9 biggest trading partners deal in Euro – what happens to Germany if the Eurozone periphery decides that the prestige of being a Eurozone member is simply not worth the endless, agonizing round after round after round of austerity?
If Greece exits and does halfway-decently, it will set off a row of dominoes across the Eurozone, prompting Italy, Portugal and Spain to follow suit, and perhaps the Baltic states as well. Then Eastern Europe decides to remain in the EU, but leave the Eurozone – they’re separate arrangements, after all. Then it’s Germany, France and the Low Countries (and Denmark, I guess).
How long will the Euro’s use as a pan-European currency – and with it, Germany’s structural economic advantage – survive a Grexit?
It was interesting to read Andrew Elder’s views on how the MSM handles major policy.
back in the Gillard days I recall hearing or reading a ministerial staffer talking about how things went.
The press gallery would turn up for a major announcement but once the guts of the program or policy change had been announced they would quickly hit their mobiles to tweet the news or organise lunch or whatever.
Then came questions. The print media were usually more inquiring but unless there was another issue like leadershit, the TV people would head to the back of the room to do their stand ups. A major, say, health initiative reduced to 30 seconds for the nightly news.
When it all wrapped up the staff would go back to their office for a debrief and soon after the phones would be ringing. The same reporters would be inquiring if there was any news today.
The average gallery hack has the attention span of a gnat.
BB @1034:
If Abbott gets wind of the knives being sharpened, do you think he’ll call a snap election?
In further news from the front…..
Stephen Mayne retweeted
News Australia @NewsAustralia · 1m1 minute ago
Tensions and threats rising in late evening phone calls between Abbott thugs and MPs who won’t pledge loyalty to loser Abbott. Ugly #auspol
Matt, he would be crazy to. But he IS crazy.
GG @1038:
I see that Rupert REALLY has it in for Abbott….
….he should’ve considered who (and what!) Abbott is BEFORE foisting him on us with his media empire!
William, can you make a thread for people to discuss greece?
1035
The Eurozone is a requirement of EU membership from which the UK and Denmark have been given an opt out and Sweden will be looked the other way at for not joining. The newer members of the EU are required to join. There is no mechanism in the Eurozone rules for leaving and it is actually explicitly banned (not that that is likely to stop any of the members who really want to leave).
If the Eurozone collapses, France will leave it and then so would the Benelux states because the more weaker state leave it, the bigger proportion of the Eurozone is Germany.
[William, can you make a thread for people to discuss greece?]
Seconded.
1039
It would be very effective revenge for dumping/ being about to dump him.
I guess once Tony asks for an election and the GG says OK and dissolves the parliament, that is it. The party members can’t meet as a caucus after that and Tony is still PM until the election and there is nothing the party can do about it. They’ll be wiped out of course, but Tony doesn’t see it that way. He probably believes he is going to save the team right up to the bitter end. Reminds me a bit of the latter day James Hird.
Matt,
He can join the friggin queue like everyone else.
Matt @1035,
And that is why outright default and exit is a credible threat by the Greeks, while the ECB /Germans are at a much weaker bargaining position.
If you owe the bank 100k and can’t pay, your are in trouble.
It you owe the bank 100b and can’t pay, the bank is in trouble.
1041 & 1043
We are too busy discussing the Hellenic Republic and is fellow Eurozone economies to discuss thick lubricant/cooking residue.
Tom,
I hope that is not an Arthur Sinodinis joke.
[He probably believes he is going to save the team right up to the bitter end. Reminds me a bit of the latter day James Hird.]
So who is your favourite genius James Hird or James Joyce?