ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Ashgrove

The first Ashgrove poll of the Queensland election campaign finds Labor’s Kate Jones maintaining her lead over Campbell Newman.

The Seven Network reports that a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 843 respondents conducted last night finds Campbell Newman trailing in Ashgrove by 53-47 on two-party preferred, with Labor’s Kate Jones on 47.6% of the primary vote compared with 43.7% for Newman, and the Greens on 5.4%. This marks a narrowing of the gap compared with the last such poll a month ago, which had it at 55-45 on two-party and 47.9% to 40.7% on the primary vote. The electorate was polled four times last year, with Labor in the lead each time: by 53-47 in a Galaxy poll conducted in February, and 53-47, 58-42, 56-44 and 55-45 in ReachTEL polls respectively conducted in July, early September, late September and December. The latter two polls were conducted after Kate Jones announced her intention to run.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

98 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Ashgrove”

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  1. I’d be very wary of that 6.1% figure. ABS hasn’t exactly been a beacon of reliability lately. Handy headline for LNP before the election but…they won’t mind when it corrects next month

  2. Got those demographics clear blackburn?

    Population of greater Brisbane: 2.2 million
    Population of the rest of the state: 2.4 million

    Brisbane largely votes Labor – Liberal, with a slight bias to the former. The rest largely votes National – Labor, with a much larger bias to the former. Queensland is the only state remotely like this*, which is why it has never before had a Liberal Premier. Two in a row would be extraordinary.

    (*Maybe Tas, but there the votes are in two cities instead of one.)

  3. “”Medicare levy gone and QLD unemployment down to 6.1% won’t hurt the LNP chances.””

    But the LNP are tarred with same brush as Abbott!.

    Good luck with that!.

  4. When considering Ashgrove it is important to remember it was a Labor seat for nearly 20 years (and 26 of the last 29) before Newman picked it up at the last, highly unusual, election. Its “natural” constituency is Labor these days. Newman is fighting both the nature of the electorate and the unpopularity of his own government in trying to hold it. Very, very unlikely he will succeed in doing so. Silly mug should have been parachuted in somewhere else mid-term.

  5. Glen @ 52

    I am perfectly aware of the Qld demographic. The reason that Labor were in power for almost all of the 1989 to 2012 period is that they won the vast majority of seats in Brisbane – in 2002 the Libs were down to something like 3 out of 39. A ‘city wide wipeout’ as you put it could quite likely lead to a Labor win overall rather than an LNP win. Unlikely to be 2002 again so a fairly good chance of an LNP win. The major issue on Brisbane for both parties is that there aren’t a large number of safe seats and a lot of seats potentially in play.

  6. Fair enough. “Wipeout” was meant as hyperbole, but it wouldn’t take a lot of Liberal losses in Brisbane for the LNP balance to return to the usual National dominance. Then the interesting question becomes, does talent out (guess that might be Nicholls), or do the numbers rule as in every previous coalition government in Queensland? Guess that depends to what extent LNP is really a party, or just a dressed-up coalition. Likely we shall see, shortly.

  8. RH – Do we know whether he tried to parachute in somewhere else, but was told there were no parachute’s available. It’s hard to believe he didn’t try

  18. We are probably going to be enemies on the QLD election comrade. Labor needs another term in opposition to properly renew. Can’t forgive them yes sorry 🙁

  19. davidwh@68

    We are probably going to be enemies on the QLD election comrade. Labor needs another term in opposition to properly renew. Can’t forgive them yes sorry

    Well I hope your mum has a blood big baseball bat and puts it to good use on you.

  31. davidwh@80

    I understand Bemused. Still feeling very sad though.

    Yes, can’t get away from that even knowing how inevitable it is.
    For me it was a process of adjustment that commenced when I was just a small boy and came to the understanding of death and that one day my parents would die. Must have only been about 5.

    Sudden deaths of young people are far more traumatic.

  32. As I said yesterday David I’m hoping for a hung parliament.

    1 Newman defeated
    2 LNP 40 to 42 seats
    3 ALP 38 to 40 seats
    4 Others /Ind BOP with 9 seats.
    5 ALP has to wait another 3 years.
    6 Abbott cops a heap of blame.
    7 Better chance of nothing contentious – almost like a de facto upper house!

    What do you think ?

  35. I arrive back in Brisbane from Thailand Monday and straight into door knocking in Hervey Bay.

    The local LNP MP Ted Sorenson is nick named the “tin man” or sometimes just Ted who ?

    He’s kept a very low profile and done SFA for his constituents.

    There’ll be a 10 to 15% swing against him but not enough this time.

  36. ausdavo@85

    I arrive back in Brisbane from Thailand Monday and straight into door knocking in Hervey Bay.

    The local LNP MP Ted Sorenson is nick named the “tin man” or sometimes just Ted who ?

    He’s kept a very low profile and done SFA for his constituents.

    There’ll be a 10 to 15% swing against him but not enough this time.

    What swing is needed?

  38. Hervey Bay is one of the safest LNP in the state. In the order of 21-22%. Noted none of Sorensen’s billboards nor the front window of his office make any mention of Newman or the LNP. Same story with Maddern in Maryborough

  39. Hervey Bay is amazingly one of the safest Qld seats for the LNP at 21.7%.

    For it’s low socio-economic profile it gained a higher %age than seats like Indooroopilly, Cleveland, Clayfield and Caloundra.
    Prior to 2012 it was on 6.5%, the election before it was ALP.

  42. Of course there were other huge swings in low socio seats in 2012 also eg Ipswich 20.9%, Woodridge 19.6%, Logan 18.7%, Waterford 17.5% Ipswich West 16.7%.

    Many of these may result in big swings back again giving the ALP a probable base of 32 to 34 seats.

    Then it’s how it pans out in the close ones especially with the huge emphasis on vote LNP LAST and optional preferential.

    If the LNP splits only marginally to PUP, Green, KAP, Ind they may fall behind the ALP in enough to see them fail to get 45 seats.

  44. trand – I think about Joh country retirees but there seem to be more retired victorians than any other group.

    There is a strong tourism industries but the tradies have been doing it tougher of late.

    There are a lot of families with children as well.

    Like Maryborough, Hervey Bay flirted with Hansen and Independents too but has had 2 ALP members since 1989.

    I think it’s just the fact that the LNP get their biggest vote from old people and there are lots of them.

    Abbott of course may be wrecking that demographic loyalty.

  45. I was just recently holidaying in Hervey Bay with my family and noticed the lack of an LNP logo on Maddern’s billboards (while driving through Maryborough). I was amused.

    I really can’t believe the LNP margin in Hervey Bay. Good luck while door knocking, ausdavo. I’m doing the PV campaign in Nudgee.

  46. Good luck Jillian.

    Nudgee had a 17.4% swing to the LNP but was previously 14.3% ALP so you only need to claw back 3.1%.

    You’re seat is one of my certain 32 for the ALP.

    I do hope the figures continue to hold us as Kate’s have in Ashgrove (where I lived in the 1990’s – Jim Fouras I think).

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