The Seven Network reports that a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 843 respondents conducted last night finds Campbell Newman trailing in Ashgrove by 53-47 on two-party preferred, with Labor’s Kate Jones on 47.6% of the primary vote compared with 43.7% for Newman, and the Greens on 5.4%. This marks a narrowing of the gap compared with the last such poll a month ago, which had it at 55-45 on two-party and 47.9% to 40.7% on the primary vote. The electorate was polled four times last year, with Labor in the lead each time: by 53-47 in a Galaxy poll conducted in February, and 53-47, 58-42, 56-44 and 55-45 in ReachTEL polls respectively conducted in July, early September, late September and December. The latter two polls were conducted after Kate Jones announced her intention to run.
Any predictions on how the preferences will break?
K17
A lot harder with OPV.
Newman odds-on to join the large unemployment queues of QLD on Feb 1.
Serves him right – he’s sacked enough QLDers – now its their turn on him.
William,
Did those earlier polls have a PUP figure? PUP aren’t running and some of their vote may have drifted back to Newman.
Yes, the previous poll did have a PUP first preference option – 2.9%. I would imagine reachtel would have directed preferences to LNP though.
I would encourage Labor to make sure the Greens voters in Ashgrove are aware of Newman’s plan to dump sludge in the wetlands at Abbot Point.
so how is the Prime Minister’s Eleven team fairing?
oops wrong thread.
6
Maybe Newman will seek the ALP and Green vote by changing the plan to dumping sludge on Abbott.
If Newman loses his seat but the LNP wins the election, who replaces Newman and will this change their hard line policies?
Campbell Newman,
You are the weakest link.
Goodbye.
Yikes, I am so sorry, the button froze!
KTO – 11…23 – normally that would annoy me, but it actually made it funnier!
Is it too late for me to move to Ashgrove?
It actually makes it seem like Newman hasn’t got the message
Reminds me somewhat of Clive’s ad
Asset sales
Goodbye Campbell Newman
[If Newman loses his seat but the LNP wins the election, who replaces Newman]
If comments here are any indication, Lawrence Springborg would be the front runner.
People vote rationally – you vote the leader out if you think their party is going to lose. Given the overall polling I am very confident the ash grove polling will improve in the lnp s favour over the next fortnight.
If the leader happened to lie to you and it cost you your job however, different story. I also think there’s a perception a Newman-less LNP government may be a bit more moderate, if not less willing to inflict pain without a mandate.
I think he only has a few days to turn it around as early voting starts monday. Hard to see where it will come from though, a monster pork barrel has only gained him 2 points
ESJ @ 18 – sounds like wishful thinking. My view is that the polls are right.
Not really – look at Bennelong – people voted Howard out because they knew the Libs were toast in 2007 so why have a by election. Why vote for jones if the lnp is going to get reflected ? That issue will affect ash grove voting IMO.
[If Newman loses his seat but the LNP wins the election, who replaces Newman]
I’ve been too far from Qld for too long to really know, but here goes.
If there is anyone outside the following group who is even vaguely plausible I would be interested to hear: Seeney, Nicholls, Springborg, Langbroek, McArdle, Crisafulli.
Langbroek, McArdle and Crisafulli I think can be eliminated at the first round. Crisafulli too far down the seniority pecking order, Langbroek uniformly considered a failure as leader, McArdle even less inspiring.
Seeney is hated by almost everyone, and it seems his own party most of all, which is a poor platform.
So that leaves Emerson v Nicholls, if the L side can maintain ascendency, or Springborg as the sole genuine contender if the N is put back in the LNP.
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That sounds like Clive is running a vary good add, for voting against the LNP.
Also, interesting the perception of a majority planning to vote Jones but believing Newman will win. LNP must be saturating the media in Ashgrove
But if not it will be wonderful to have a third leader defenestration example for pub trivia.
Some reports apparently think Ian Walker is a contender. The fact that he has made precisely zero impact in southern media certainly suggests that he is one of the government’s better performed ministers but I would have to leave it to Quincelanders to comment.
21
Springborg has already lost 3 elections as leader though. Can probably be done but he would be behind the credibility 8 ball from day 1
Tom @ 22
It is kind of a bit catchy. Just a soundbite remix of Campbell saying ‘asset sales’ and then Clive saying ‘goodbye Campbell Newman’, rinse repeat
[Springborg has already lost 3 elections as leader though.]
True, although that should hurt him less in a ballot post-election than it would for a ballot for a leader to go into an election. And I would have thought he was not the least popular of the many L and NP ex-leaders, despite those losses.
My bet would be an Emerson v Springborg contest.
Anyhow, finding reasons why any given contender shouldn’t be considered is the easy bit. The fact is that if there were such a ballot one of them would actually win.
Oh, he’s by far not the worst option. My point is it will give a rejuvenated Labor a ready-made attack line from day one.
Edwina StJohn@20
If this were true then the swing in Bennelong would have been significantly greater than in neighbouring seats; it wasn’t.
Howard was voted out because he was on too small a margin to withstand the regional swing and his PM status provided him with no bulwark against it since it was already factored into his vote from the last election.
Had there been a perception he could win the election it’s possible there would have been a swing back based on the potential for porkbarrel goodies but there wasn’t, because the election as a whole was clearly toast.
I think it’s possible Newman will pick up if it becomes clear to Ashgrove voters that the LNP are winning, but not certain. It’s not something we’ve had the chance to test before.
The only example I can think of where a party won the election but the leader lost their seat is Goff Letts in 1977, but given the quirks of Territory politics that isn’t a great help here. I suspect it probably happened a few times in the colonial period but that wouldn’t tell us much either!
Abbott desperately wants the LNP to lose the QLD election, else there will be a huge backlash against Abbott in QLD at the next fed election.
[Howard was voted out because he was on too small a margin to withstand the regional swing and his PM status provided him with no bulwark against it since it was already factored into his vote from the last election.]
And Howard screwed up by saying that if re-elected he intended to retire sometime during the new parliament, which would’ve meant the voters of Bennelong going back to a by-election.
Kudos to the people of Ashgrove for not being bought. I wonder how long Newman will be able to keep the pretence up? He is gone and he knows it, yet is campaigning for another LNP to become premier. It must grate.
Good post Kb 31.
I remembered comments on news sites encouraging Ashgrove voters “not to be selfish” by voting for the state rather than the electorate in 2012’s battle between Kate Jones in Newman.
In this situation, I wonder if it would be selfish or not if they accept the pork barrelling over who they prefer to represent them.
It’ll be interesting to see a dollar value comparison of what was promised for each electorate.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/ct-editorial/queensland-election-2015-northern-politics-prove-the-value-of-upper-houses-20150114-12nxyq.html
Frickeg 32 – one similar scenario was in Canada in 1989 where in the Province of Alberta the Progressive Conservative Party lost 2 of their 61 seats in the 83 seat Assembly. Remarkably one of those seats was that of Don Getty the Premier. A colleague resigned and Getty won the by-election, and stayed Premier. It was not a decision universally popular in his Party, and he quit 3 years later.
I had not realised that this is the first January election for an Australian jurisdiction since Tasmania went to the polls on Jan 23rd 1913. The LNP were really keen to get this done before Tony Abbott gets going for the year and Federal Parliament sits.
There was one seat needing a Labor candidate and Labor was trying to persuade the president of the law society to stand there. Did this happen and what was the seat? Thank you.
[If comments here are any indication, Lawrence Springborg would be the front runner.]
Yes Im partly responsible for that view being put about – though I should note when you check the money its all on Nichols (1.80); Emerson (5-1) then the Borg (7.50).
So my view is not considered likely – its just that I believe the Nats (who will prob have a majority in the LNP after the election) will assert themselves post-Newman.
[The only example I can think of where a party won the election but the leader lost their seat is Goff Letts in 1977, but given the quirks of Territory politics that isn’t a great help here.]
Not an Australian example, but in the British Columbia provincial election in 2013, the BC Liberal Party unexpectedly retained government with Premier Christy Clark losing her seat. She ended up running in a by-election after another person stood down and won that (with a swing to her).
Hi Toorak, it was Lytton and the ALP went with a local candidate rather than bringing in a celebrity.
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But I think the Medicare rebate change has killed any benefit from avoiding the new political year. Politics has not taken a summer holiday this year.
Are there many/any polls expected out by Monday? Pondering how much evidence there may be of a significant change from the status quo before early voting starts.
What’s the trend like on early voting – can we expect a significant amount of it?
Nicholls is a city Liberal from toffee-nosed Clayfield; Trinity Grammar and Churchie FFS. Chance of him getting up in an old-fashioned rural Nationals-dominated caucus after a city-wide Liberal wipeout would be slight, I would have thought. Perhaps bettors know better.
Newman is/was effectively the first-ever Liberal Premier of Queensland (Gordon Chalk for one week in 1968 was the other).
Medicare levy gone and QLD unemployment down to 6.1% won’t hurt the LNP chances.
[Springborg has already lost 3 elections as leader though. Can probably be done but he would be behind the credibility 8 ball from day 1]
In both 2010 and 2014, Victorian voters rejected a premier who had previously been a failed opposition leader. There is a reason why voters so not elect someone rejected the first time round. Should Newman lose, a non recycled leader from Brisbane would be their best bet for success in 2018.
[a city-wide Liberal wipeout] would see the LNP back on the opposition benches