Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Morgan offers the first federal poll since the Christmas/New Year break, and while the Coalition is up, it’s unclear if this marks an improvement in its position or a correction after a rogue result last time.

Roy Morgan breaks the New Year polling drought with its regular face-to-face plus SMS polling compiled from surveys over the two previous weekends, in this case with a sample of 2622 (Morgan typically gets about 3000, so this might be seen as an insight into the challenges of polling over the holiday period). It is a better result from the Coalition than the previous poll conducted in early December, which had a rogue-ish 57.5-42.5 headline lead to Labor, compared with 53.5-46.5 at the poll in late November. This time the Labor lead is 54.5-45.5, from primary votes of 38.5% for both the Coalition (up 3.5%) and Labor (down 2.5%), 9.5% for the Greens (down two) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). When preferences are applied according to the 2013 election result rather than respondent allocation, Labor’s lead is 53-47, down from 56.5-43.5 last time and back where it was in late November.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Certainly no sign of any Coalition recovery in the debut Essential Research poll for the year, which being the first deviates from normal form in not being a rolling average combined two weeks of results. The poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the last poll of last year, from primary votes of 40% for Labor (up two), 38% for the Coalition (down two), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, and here at least there is better news for Tony Abbott who reverses a slump in December to be up five points on approval to 37%, with disapproval down two to 53%. However, Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 39% and down six on disapproval to 33%, so perhaps this is festive cheer talking. Shorten remains ahead on preferred prime minister, although his lead has narrowed from 36-31 to 37-35. Further questions relate to penalty rates, and bode ill for the cause of deregulation. Eighty-one per cent support penalty rates as a basic principle with 13% opposed, 68% would oppose cutting them with 23% supportive, and only 18% believe encouraging employment would be the more likely result of doing so, compared with 63% for business making bigger profits.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,970 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  3. I had an interesting day yesterday, going on a civil war history walking tour of Barcelona. The tour, run by a guy called Nick Lloyd, was excellent and covered the highs, lows and divisions in the republican movement in Barcelona…something about which I had little or no knowledge.

    The tour was made even more interesting by a couple of other attendees: Lindsay Tanner and Gary Punch who I think arrived on the tour independently. Two engaging and very unassuming characters.

    All up 20€ well spent.

  4. Truss using jargon “a non-campaigning experience” is a funeral.

    [“I have been surprised about this criticism of the Prime Minister not having been to Queensland. When the election was announced he was in Iraq visiting our troops and in the UAE talking about how we were going to deal with the horrors of the Islamic State. When he came back the Adelaide fires were on and he had to visit South Australia,” he said.
    Advertisement

    “He has been to Queensland. He went up to Cairns for the large funeral of those children but that was a non-campaigning experience.”]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-warren-truss-defends-tony-abbott-for-not-visiting-queensland-20150112-12mdq4.html

  5. The right click button has failed on my mouse and it’s like losing a finger. Is the only solution to have a “new mouse experience”?

  7. Morning all. Lizzie I think that the muslim and christian religions have reached true equality in this respect. For every Danny Nalliah in the ranks of christian pastors, they can match us with a nutcase like Sheik Munajjid.

  8. Jolyon 103 – that sounds fantastic. Many Sapnish will say that it wasn’t mainly a Civil War of course, and that Franco could not have won without the military support of the Italian and German Fascists. I feel that Spain needed/needs a “Truth and Reconciliation Commission” like they had in South Africa. There just seem to be many open wounds, even after nearly 80 years. And you are not allowed by law to bring cases against anyone for political crimes from the Franco era.

  9. The Coroner’s report on the Adelaide SE Freeway fatal crashes makes a number of recommendations, including jail for drivers who ignore the safety ramps, and the companies paying compensation to victims. Why does that not happen now under existing laws?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-12/coroner-recommends-national-training-for-south-eastern-freeway/6012304

    Both the drivers and the trucking companiess are guilty on this one. If muy employer orders me to risk someone elses life then I am still guilty if I do it. From an engineering viewpoint, the freeway meets all relevant Australian road design rules. All of the crashes have been caused by trucks – none by cars – and in good weather. The crashes are entirely due to a combination of poor maintenance and truck driver error.

  11. BK – good morning in advance. Hope you have had had lots of much-needed rain in the Hills. Last night I came across a film on TV – a 1938 classic with Errol Flynn – “The Dawn Patrol”! Clearly your role model!

    I was driving down the Stuart Highway on that terrible Saturday afternoon last week and it was like something from an apocalyptic film – buffeted by massive gales in 43 degree heat with dust storms of varying intensity, the worst between Woomera and Port Augusta.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    You win some, you lose some . . .
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/australias-richest-blow-5-billion-20150112-12mg6i.html
    Just what Labor needed on the run up to the state election. What is it with these people?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/pressure-on-canterbury-general-manager-jim-montague-to-resign-20150112-12mopm.html
    Baird will be flying in the face of the facts if he eases off on the lockout rules.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lockout-laws-early-baird-review-dismays-onepunch-victims-family-20150112-12mo0h.html
    This man in a funny frock slams “deviant forms of religion”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/pope-slams-deviant-forms-of-religion-after-paris-attacks-calls-for-unanimous-response-20150112-12mtku.html
    $200000 of funny money rinsed and given to the federal Libs just before the 2013 election. And oh, it wasn’t disclosed!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/reg-grundy-company-says-it-gave-200000-donation-directly-to-the-liberals-20150112-12mgtk.html
    Wacko Bernardi is still at it!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/charlie-hebdo-attack-prompts-renewed-calls-for-racehate-law-changes-in-australia-20150112-12m7d6.html
    The AMA is not going to stand by and lets the Medicare rebate changes slide through.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lastminute-medicare-change-evidence-of-abbott-government-bungling-says-australian-medical-association-20150111-12lytn.html
    And neither will the patients!
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/patients-face-new-20-fee-for-seeing-their-gp-20150112-12mpag.html
    Every child deserves to be immunised.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/susie-obrien-every-child-deserves-to-be-vaccinated/story-fni6unxq-1227182439575

  13. Section 2 . . .

    An 88% dive in Australian investment in large scale renewables. Nice work Tone!
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/australias-largescale-renewable-investment-dives-in-2014-20150112-12mbis.html
    And more nice work on the technological front.
    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jan/12/australia-drops-further-in-internet-speed-rankings-after-nbn-indecision-and-delay
    Is Shorten’s “Witness protection” line cutting through in Queensland?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/01/12/abbott-absence-clouds-qld-election/
    Three simple ways we can remove the Scott Morrison stains from our asylum seeker policies.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/01/12/three-simple-ways-we-can-clean-scott-morrison-stain-our-asylum-seeker-policies
    Will Abbott and Hockey actually face up to the big tax breaks given to the rich?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/01/12/joe-hockey-tax-concessions-rich/
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/01/12/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-165/
    Does Eric Abetz harbour a pathological hatred for public servants?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-servants-in-payrise-paradise-says-eric-abetz-20150112-12mibd.html
    Baird’s alarming dismissal of the Auditor-General’s report into WestConnex.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/baird-governments-dismissal-of-hehir-report-alarming-20150111-12lrtg.html
    Cathy Wilcox joins in to slam the Paris shooters.

    David Pope with a sombre look at the march in Paris.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html

  14. [The manager of a drug and alcohol residential rehabilitation program says cuts to funding could force some Riverina, South Coast and Monaro children into foster care.]

    The program houses the whole family while parents are undergoing rehabilitation, but federal government funding cuts will make this unviable.

    [“And most of these kids are under care and protection orders, therefore they’ll have to go to foster care or out of home care.” ]

    [..”Some of these children that arrive come with behavioural problems because they’ve had years of concerning issues within their family so by keeping them together we’re actually teaching them how to become a family, how to live as a family so that they can reintegrate into the community later on,” Ms Rowland said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-13/rehab-program/6013530

  15. Rocket
    Yes, the Hills have received a fair bit of rain. No run-off though. It’s a pretty miserable morning here as I’m just about to go out and feed the animals.

  16. Rocket Rocket,

    Agreed. In fact the tour guide, Nick Lloyd, was lamenting the lack of an equivalent of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

    It is strange how little commemoration there is in Spain for quite dramatic events in the “civil” war. In the port of Alicante thousands of fleeing republicans were unable to board ships and were captured or killed by the fascists. Many committed suicide rather than be captured. Despite this horror I couldn’t find any memorial to commemorate these events.

  17. Morning all,

    Thanks BK.

    The big story overnight is #foxnewsfacts on twitter.

    It massively out trended the golden globe awards.

    300k plus tweets mocking Fox News.

    It’s official, Rupe & Roger Ailes have jumped the shark.

  18. An interesting one about how underutilised assets, built in communities affected by the Black Saturday fires, are causing a burden for local shires.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-12/black-saturday-infrastructure-marysville-cautionary-tale-sa-fire/6013114

    A good report, but I would add these riders —

    1. The problems are caused, at least in part, by the failure of the local population to return to pre fire levels. If the population numbers had stayed the same – as they have in other fire affected communities I know of – the buildings would have had more use, and the cost burdens may not have been a problem.

    2. The rates and the rate rises don’t really seem to be out of the ordinary. My rates when I moved here were also only a few hundred dollars, and are now over a thousand, for example, in a very similar shire.

    3. The incoming Victorian government has pledged a cap on rate rises. Interestingly, the local council here proposes a jump in rates next year (before the restriction comes in?) before a return to normal levels.

    So there may be an element here of seizing an opportunity/excuse to raise its rates before the new legislation comes into effect.

  19. Morning all

    SOUTH Australia could miss out on a $10 billion warship contract, in a move the industry says is potentially “disastrous” for the state.

    [There has been speculation that all eight Future Frigates would be built in Adelaide, but a crucial report says using an existing design for the warships would be the least risky option, and that would “mostly likely” have to happen offshore.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/report-to-government-shows-future-frigates-project-could-go-overseas/story-fni6uo1m-1227182594930?from=public_rss&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=AdelaideAdvertiser&utm_medium=Twitter

  23. As per BK’s link. This has been reported in the past. Will Labor pursue Abbott on this when parliament rises?

    [A company controlled by Australian television producer Reg Grundy has declared it gave $200,000 directly to the federal Liberal Party six months before the 2013 election that swept Prime Minister Tony Abbott to power.

    But the Liberal Party has not declared the donation to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). Instead, the controversial Liberal-linked Free Enterprise Foundation declared it received the gift, raising fresh questions about its relationship with the party.]

  26. That *tolerance* thingy is looking a bit sick ?

    [ Hollande Furious After Netanyahu Participates In Paris March, Disobeying French President’s Request

    There was one world leader who was out of step with the rest of political elite during yesterday’s theatrical procession of world leaders for French unity and for press freedom (even as the bulk of them engage in prosecution of freedom of speech across their own nations):

    Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    In fact, as Reuters reports, he managed to “ruffle a few feathers while taking part in the “Charlie Hebdo” rally in Paris on Sunday” because this was an event his office initially said he would not be attending following a specific request form French president Hollande not to come to Paris, but ultimately ended up participating in much to the Chagrin of the French president. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-12/diplomatic-fallout-after-israels-netanyahu-participates-paris-memorial-march-disobey

  28. As you do –

    [ Greeks Stop Paying Taxes Ahead Of Elections As Central Bank Scrambles To Halt Bank Run Rumors

    …one thing is certain: with an increasing probability they may not have a “continuity-promoting” government in less than two weeks, Greeks tax remittances to the government, which were almost non-existent to begin with, have ground to a halt! ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-12/greeks-stop-paying-taxes-ahead-elections-central-bank-scrambles-halt-bank-run-rumors

  29. Didnt Mike Carlton get the boot from SMH for speaking his mind? And wasnt it News corp and their cheersquad leading the charge? As per usual, this mob is only interested in free speech for themselves and no one else

  30. Telstra CEO on workplace gender equality:

    [Mentoring, sponsorship and networking programs have been established and a Diversity Council (which I chair and which includes my entire leadership team) acts as a performance planning forum as well as sending a signal to the entire organisation about the expectations of the company’s leadership.

    I also make a point of declining requests to speak on external panels that don’t include a woman.

    Beyond Telstra I am part of the Male Champions of Change (MCC) (which includes 25 senior leaders from the public and private sector) because men, particularly men of influence, have an incredibly important role to play in this because of the effect they can have on the culture and perspectives of individuals, organisations, even whole countries.

    When influential men step up, change can happen and in this case I have no doubt many strong voices will help bring transformative change. ]
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-so-slow-workplace-equality-david-thodey

    Wise words and good to see he backs them up with action.

  31. victoria:

    IMO Wilson’s full of it. Ensuring people are accountable for the things they say publicly is not censorship in my book.

  32. [ The price of iron ore has extended recent falls, slipping further below $US70 a tonne amid a broader commodity market slump.

    At the end of the latest offshore session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US68.50 a tonne, down 1.9 per cent from its previous close of $US69.80 a tonne, and just 4 per cent above the five-and-a-half-year low of $US65.70 reached just prior to Christmas. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/1/13/commodities/iron-ore-extends-fall-below-us70

  33. Further to the #foxnewsfacts twitter explosion…

    @foxnewspress account was established & started to threaten tweeters to the #foxnewsfacts hashtag with legal action.

    @foxnewspress account has been suspended but the #foxnewsfacts hashtag has “disappeared” from the trending list.

    It seems Murdoch & Ailes can”t handle the ridicule & tried to suppress it with threats. The account which they used to convey these legal threats has been suspended but it seems they’ve succeeded in suppressing the trending hashtag.

    Murdoch using his muscle to subvert democracy, makes phone hacking look small fry.

  34. In the middle of a European winter ?

    [ Hairy thighs, pale calves, and polka dot underwear. There was no shame for the thousands of commuters around the world who travelled sans trousers for the 14th No Pants Subway Ride and its variants on Sunday.

    What began as a small stunt by seven New York subway riders in 2002 has turned into a global event. The original pranksters, who formed the group Improv Everywhere, said pants were dropped and legs bared in 60 cities, including London, Hong Kong and Johannesburg.

    “It’s a celebration of silliness,” said Larry Piche, the organiser of Calgary’s No Pants Skytrain Ride. “There’s no real reason, just come out and play.” ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/thousands-of-commuters-ride-barelegged-for-no-pants-day-20150112-12mp36.html

  35. confessions

    I ventured onto 3aw sunday morning, which is Melbourne’s version of shock jock radio. They talked about this issue of free speech. All for it of course, until someone calls in saying something they dont like. Quick to cut them off. Bunch of bullshitting hypocrites.

  36. Why do political donations only have to be reported many months after an election? Surely with contemporary IT systems it would be feasible to have close to instant disclosure. Are there any penalties for undisclosed donations? How about a fine of three times the value of the donation?

  37. victoria @129

    Spot on.

    another example: Why is it that NO ONE ever speaks about Israel’s Nuclear programme. Even Hard Talk (in UK) would grill leaders about just anything but is shy to mention this. So free speech is only as free as we want it to be. This morning at the FIFA awards night, their President spoke glowingly about free speech but he was the same person who treatened journalists with legal action if they printed some material on him. What hypocrisy!!!

  40. Just a brief comment on
    [Baird will be flying in the face of the facts if he eases off on the lockout rules.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lockout-laws-early-baird-review-dismays-onepunch-victims-family-20150112-12mo0h.html
    Both the murders that triggered the lockouts occurred at c.9pm (cf the enforced closure of 10pm on bottleshops; 1.30 lockout and 3.00 cessation of service) and where (from memory) there had been zero successful actions against licenced establishments under the previous laws

    To my mind, the state went from zero enforcement of the law to the imposition of a draconian, collective punishment, law, with very significant negative community impact

  41. dave – have you seen charts oil price/iron ore prices in something like SDRs (or say in EUR/JPY)?…the commodity prices have fallen a lot obviously over the 6 months, but the USD has also appreciated ~20% over that time period

  42. Frankly I think that’s an amazing result for Labor. You’d think that as the political season slows down over summer sentiment would shift back to the government as there is little discussion and the quiet favours incumbency. The various crises,natural and man made also assist those in control in appearing in control. Bearing all that in mind,that the gap is as large as it is must be a source of great concern for the coalition brains trust. I thoUght that Abbott struggled in the role over summer. It was surreal watching him standing next to Jay Wetherill, and the trip to see the troops was bizarre. Baird didn’t seem to want him in Sydney. Irrespective of his policy positions personally he seems unable to garner warmth and respect.

  43. lefty e

    Regional victorian doctor was interviewed earlier on ABC radio. He is mightly pissed off with the medicare changes. Says the GPs are going to fight these changes

  44. There seems to be a blurring between ‘freedom of speech’ and ‘freedom to offend’.

    Freedom of speech is about being able to speak the truth without fear.

    It doesn’t, therefore, carry with it the right to upset others (their ideas, perhaps) or to make personal attacks.

    As I keep saying, no one seems to argue that they lack the freedom of speech to say positive, constructive things, or to be nice to people.

    They want the freedom to offend – that is, to throw insults around, regardless of whether there is a factual basis for them.

    (If I say ‘you’re smelly’, and you are, then I’m exercising freedom of speech; if I say ‘you’re smelly’ and you’re not, I’m just being offensive).

  47. [Didnt Mike Carlton get the boot from SMH for speaking his mind? And wasnt it News corp and their cheersquad leading the charge? As per usual, this mob is only interested in free speech for themselves and no one else.]

    There’s a bit of this about. Charlie Hebdo is just the kind of publication that the reptiles at News Corp would loathe.

    Some of its cartoons depicting the Prophet were just as grossly unfunny as The Chaser’s dog-f**king segment that got them into so much trouble at the hands of Chris Kenny and his wealthy employers.

    And yes, Carlton *was* dismissed over a controversy related to a cartoon criticising the Israeli response to Gaza.

    I don’t know what the aim of the “all Muslims are guilty” mob can possibly be. If it’s to inflame racial and religious extremism, then that could hardly be productive of calm. If it’s claiming to be a sober commentary based on the facts (including Monday’s non sequiter that Muslims allegedly don’t thend to enlist in the ADF) then it’s not factual. If it’s simply pretending to be an angry outburst to score clicks or increase sales, then it’s unprofessional and immoral.

    One thing is for certain: whether most agree with it or not, continued lampooning of the Muslim religion and its Prophet is unlikely to engender social cohesiveness. Whether Charlie Hebdo lampooned other religions is beside the point. In lampooning Islam, indeed celebrating that position, it exacerbated a bad situation and made it deadly.

    Charlie Hebdo’s supporters say that Muslims can’t take a joke. Muslims – or at least enough of them – say their Prophet depicted with his balls hanging free is no laughing matter.

    You’d think common sense would prevail. Instead we got murder and mayhem, with many dead. Is it really worth it over such an unfunny series of cartoons?

  48. victoria

    which is why I’ve said before that just because Tim Wilson says he’s a libertarian doesn’t make it so.

    (After all, Abbott says he’s the Minister for Women…)

  50. I liked Guy Rundle’s article in Crikey yesterday. He argued that Charlie Hebdo is an easy free speech symbol for national leaders to invoke because Charlie Hebdo does not actually threaten state power. All they do is kick France’s Muslims, who are eight percent of the population, most of them secular, and almost none of them interested in living under a caliphate.

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