Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Morgan offers the first federal poll since the Christmas/New Year break, and while the Coalition is up, it’s unclear if this marks an improvement in its position or a correction after a rogue result last time.

Roy Morgan breaks the New Year polling drought with its regular face-to-face plus SMS polling compiled from surveys over the two previous weekends, in this case with a sample of 2622 (Morgan typically gets about 3000, so this might be seen as an insight into the challenges of polling over the holiday period). It is a better result from the Coalition than the previous poll conducted in early December, which had a rogue-ish 57.5-42.5 headline lead to Labor, compared with 53.5-46.5 at the poll in late November. This time the Labor lead is 54.5-45.5, from primary votes of 38.5% for both the Coalition (up 3.5%) and Labor (down 2.5%), 9.5% for the Greens (down two) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). When preferences are applied according to the 2013 election result rather than respondent allocation, Labor’s lead is 53-47, down from 56.5-43.5 last time and back where it was in late November.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Certainly no sign of any Coalition recovery in the debut Essential Research poll for the year, which being the first deviates from normal form in not being a rolling average combined two weeks of results. The poll has Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the last poll of last year, from primary votes of 40% for Labor (up two), 38% for the Coalition (down two), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, and here at least there is better news for Tony Abbott who reverses a slump in December to be up five points on approval to 37%, with disapproval down two to 53%. However, Bill Shorten is up four on approval to 39% and down six on disapproval to 33%, so perhaps this is festive cheer talking. Shorten remains ahead on preferred prime minister, although his lead has narrowed from 36-31 to 37-35. Further questions relate to penalty rates, and bode ill for the cause of deregulation. Eighty-one per cent support penalty rates as a basic principle with 13% opposed, 68% would oppose cutting them with 23% supportive, and only 18% believe encouraging employment would be the more likely result of doing so, compared with 63% for business making bigger profits.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,970 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. Actually i just remembered. Last night, I was listening to the quiz show on ABC radio. One of the questions was why did Prince charles delay his wedding nuptials to camilla for one day. Apparently it was because of Pope John Paul’s funeral. The person who called in with that answer then when onto say that the Pope after John paul was a nazi. Well the host did not appreciate that at all. He made the caller apologise unreservedly for making that slur. Yeah for free speech i say

  3. [Both the murders that triggered the lockouts occurred at c.9pm (cf the enforced closure of 10pm on bottleshops; 1.30 lockout and 3.00 cessation of service) and where (from memory) there had been zero successful actions against licenced establishments under the previous laws]

    True, Laocoon. But the problem went way beyond those two murders. The lock-outs have led to a drop in alcohol-related assaults, as it did in Newcastle.

    This country has a major problem with alcohol abuse. I don’t like the lock-out policy, but until we get our shit together as a society, then this policy is the best we have to reduce alcohol-fueled violence in central Sydney.

  4. Laocoon @140:

    I presume you have a commercial interest in pushing alcohol, like that pathetic reptile Paul Nicolaou.

    I’m a physician who worked in Newcastle both before and after the lock-out laws that changed the city, on which the Sydney laws are modelled. They work so well that they terrify immoral spivs like you and the rest of the kleptocracy. Time to extend the laws to the whole State.

  6. Just saw presser from medical staff at St Vincents. Looks like Baird is in for a fight to reverse the lockout and shorten the review period.

    Speaking of things medical the first changes coming that are the start of the end of Medicare happen before January 31st so Newman must be real happy.

    Speaking QLD election Labor presser now Shorten about to speak

  7. [Laocoon
    Posted Tuesday, January 13, 2015 at 9:38 am | Permalink

    dave – have you seen charts oil price/iron ore prices in something like SDRs (or say in EUR/JPY)?…the commodity prices have fallen a lot obviously over the 6 months, but the USD has also appreciated ~20% over that time period ]

    Hi Lao

    I hadn’t – but what you say makes sense.

    Trust all is well with you.

  8. [lefty e
    Posted Tuesday, January 13, 2015 at 9:29 am | PERMALINK
    $20 more to see your GP. There goes bulk-billing.

    Nice new year reminder to the public as to why they got that baseball bat out last tear.

    Election now! Lets put this lot straight in the bin where they belong.]

    Agreed. The AMA was quoted on the 3aw news this morning as saying that the $20 reduction in the refund will result in less bulk billing and the slashing of support staff in doctors’ offices – ie. a drop in services.

    I just hope that Labor uses this golden opportunity to the full and gets on to it quickly. The narrative writes itself.

    1. Tony Abbott said there would be no cuts to health. This is a cut to health. Another lie.

    2. The move, if allowed to proceed, will result in many more people going to hospital emergency departments, further clogging the hospital system, from which the government has also withdrawn funding after saying it wouldn’t – more lies.

    3. By introducing it by regulation the government has thumbed its nose at the parliament, which would have blocked it. Labor will move in the Senate as soon as possible that the regulation be over turned.

    With the support of the AMA Labor has the opportunity to turn this into a real bun fight and a nightmare for the government.

  12. lizzie:
    The right click button has failed on my mouse and it’s like losing a finger. Is the only solution to have a “new mouse experience”?

    It is years since I used a PC. Try (Ctrl)-(Left Click), or hold down the Left button

  13. guytaur@160

    ABC 24 showing Charlie Hebdo front page after warning muslims who may be offended

    The front page is a bit ambiguous about who is doing the forgiving and who is being forgiven.

    Is Charlie Hebdo forgiving Mohammed and those who purported to act in his name? Or is it the other way around and Mohammed is forgiving Charlie Hebdo?

    Either message is good.

  16. [
    The right click button has failed on my mouse and it’s like losing a finger. Is the only solution to have a “new mouse experience”?
    ]

    Personally, I’d be throwing the dead mouse in the bin and buying a new one.

  17. Mad Cyril

    [Personally, I’d be throwing the dead mouse in the bin and buying a new one.]

    I will as soon as I can get to the shop, 40 mins drive, but in the meantime, very frustrating. (And in case you’re going to suggest ordering by mail, I have small hands and need to hold the mouse to be sure it suits me.)

  20. Lizzie, a lot of supermarkets nowadays I believe sell cheap mice. That could at least hold you over till you can buy a more expensive one to your liking.

  22. Regarding the quite cynical changes to the Medicare payments made after Canberra went home before christmas, all I can say is that Tony Abbott must really hate Campbell Newman.

    What better reminder to the voters of Qld that Newman has ripped the Qld public health system apart, than to force everyone to pay when they use a private doctor. The timing of the move will merely underline the coalition’s ideological hatred of public health and public services in general. Anna Paluszczuk should mention it at every opportunity. It will be more of the same if the LNP is re-elected.

  24. Socrates

    As confessions has stated several times, it does seem that the federal coalition are doing their best to have Labor states

  27. lizzie@167

    Mad Cyril

    Personally, I’d be throwing the dead mouse in the bin and buying a new one.


    I will as soon as I can get to the shop, 40 mins drive, but in the meantime, very frustrating. (And in case you’re going to suggest ordering by mail, I have small hands and need to hold the mouse to be sure it suits me.)

    Smaller models are generally advertised as being for Notebook computers.

    I have had good experience with Logitech products, including a free replacement of something I broke!

    Their website includes the dimension of all mice in the specifications. http://www.logitech.com/en-au/mice-pointers

    I also recommend wireless mice.

  28. bemused

    [Is Charlie Hebdo forgiving Mohammed and those who purported to act in his name? ]

    I took it that Mohammed is crying for those who acted appallingly in his name.

    Someone noted above why Netanyahu was in that first line of dignitaries yesterday. For mine he should have been banned from attending the march all together.

  30. dave

    I see the Greek citizenry is onto yet another ‘reason’ not to pay tax. Nothing changes except for the ‘reason’ du jour.

    Apparently the ‘Leave the EU’ party is going to win the elections.

    The Greeks may get what they want but they may also discover that actually having to pay your national debts – instead of being subsidised so to do by the rest of the EU – is unfunny.

    Merkel has apparently decided to cut Greece loose.
    I imagine that the New Drachma might be launched stormy seas.

  31. MTBW@178

    bemused

    Is Charlie Hebdo forgiving Mohammed and those who purported to act in his name?


    I took it that Mohammed is crying for those who acted appallingly in his name.

    Someone noted above why Netanyahu was in that first line of dignitaries yesterday. For mine he should have been banned from attending the march all together.

    Or perhaps arrested and handed over to The Hague.

  32. This business of the GP co-payment is already frightening the elderly on pensions.

    I was talking to an elderly woman in the local supermarket yesterday and she is genuinely concerned that she will not be able to afford to go to the doctor.

    She was telling me that due to a mix up with her pension she had to go to the Centrelink office and her only way of getting there was by cab which cost her twenty dollars.

    We will see more and more of these hardship issues for the elderly and they will hold Abbott to account.

  33. victoria
    [As confessions has stated several times, it does seem that the federal coalition are doing their best to have Labor states]
    Perhaps Abbott thinks it will be easier to cut Federal funds that support State run services if they are all Labor States? Genius, sociopath style.

  34. The latest from Bob Ellis http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/01/13/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-166/

    BK is up too early and links to the previous day.

    I don’t know how Ellis gets away with some of his comments. Maybe truth is his defence?
    [It was thought some Sydney police were snorting more Ice than was beneficial to them or the larger community. No Royal Commission, though, Baird swore, would investigate why a plan to shoot Monis before he killed anybody was not proceeded with, and a plan they called ‘an eye for an eye’, to shoot him after he killed somebody, was preferred. Or why he had not been sniped fifteen hours before. Or ten. Or seven. And why they waited till he was tired and irritable and murderous, and did not send in anybody — an imam, Mamdouh Habib, Tony Abbott — to talk to him.

    No ‘Je Suis Katrina’ march against the NSW police has yet been planned. It was suggested to Baird, and it left him sobbing. ‘We will get through this,’ he blubbered over his cornflakes. ‘We will get through this.’

    Nick Cater, a Liberal voter, called for the punishment of all Muslims for the events in the Lindt Cafe. Like punishing all Catholics for their co-religionist Hitler’s massacres of tens of millions, and all Jews for their co-religionist Netanyahu’s massacre, last June, of three thousand Gazans and of all Chinese for their occasional killings, in mere hundreds, of Muslim Uigurs in their various small towns for exercising free speech in the past ten years, his plan had flaws. So did his call for the 18C debate that Brandis had summarily trashed to ‘start afresh’. ‘We all have the right to be bigoted,’ his first draft is said to have said, ‘all, that is, except for the swarthy, hook-nosed Muslim infidel. Oops.’]

  35. [Good point. I get all my HDMI cables from Woolworths. Cheap as chips and they work just as well as the overpriced cables places like Harvey Norman try and flog you.]

    You ain’t seen nuthin’ until you’ve seen the 2 metre long “SPDF digital cable” (2 metres of shielded cable with gold RCA connectors) for $390 that I saw recently.

    I had occasion to have a long talk with the CEO of the manufacturer (a dutch company), who agreed it was over-the-top. It had uranium doped, rare-earth what-nots in is shield (or similar, but you get the drift) and I was told by the salesman that digital signals were “clearer” if it was used.

    I put this to the manufacturer’s CEO, pointing out that 1s and 0s are 1s and 0s not matter whether they pass 2 metres through cheap Jaycar cable with plastic $1 RCA connectors, or are “diffused” through a uranium-doped, wine-dipped $390 mortgage stresser. He agreed that the salesman’s claim was absolute rubbish. HE didn’t make that claim.

    So, I asked why he made such expensive cable and his answer was refreshingly frank: “We’re in the happiness business.”

    The company’s motto is “Where emotion meets engineering.”

  39. Some people never learn…

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/paris-terror-sparks-new-push-to-bolster-freedom-of-speech-in-australia-20150112-12mmv4.html

    So, after nearly 20 people are murdered in France, originating from a hideously misguided reaction to some poor-taste cartoons, the numpties of the Right here want to up the ante so that Australians can taunt ethnic and religious demographics in the same way?

    Sounds a lot like “Bring ’em on!” to me, a deliberate attempt to use the Charlie Hebdo disaster to incite our own version of racial and religious strife. Or maybe it’s just simple bullying?

  41. @152 zoomster,

    The outrage in response Andres Serrano’s “Piss Christ” provides a pretty good benchmark for the level Christian tolerance to blasphemous images.

  42. BB

    Very interesting. That motto says it all. That’s all that can explain someone purchasing some of these cables. There are some ridiculous HDMI Cables out there. This one is just ludicrous.

    [
    AudioQuest Diamond 1m (3.2 feet) Braided HDMI Cable
    ]

    Price, $1,094.75 direct from Amazon

    Love one of the questions

    [
    Is it true that plugging this into my TV creates a portal to another dimension?
    ]

    Some of the “reviews” are hilarious.

    http://www.amazon.com/AudioQuest-Diamond-1m-Braided-Cable/dp/B003CT08E4

  44. [ In an opinion column for the Australian Financial Review last April, Mr Hewson made three salient observations about the existing superannuation tax arrangements:

    • The tax breaks on super are costing the government in foregone revenue about $45 billion a year and this is roughly the same amount that is spent each year on the age pension.

    • The dollar value of the tax breaks is growing faster than expenditure on the aged pension, making concessions on super contributions a much bigger threat to balancing government finances in the near-term.

    • The super tax concessions are skewed to high-income earners: the top 10 per cent of income earners reap more than 36 per cent of the tax concession dollars, while the bottom 10 per cent are actually penalised for making super contributions.

    These facts led Mr Hewson to conclude that the concessional tax arrangements for the rich should be wound back because they are “poorly targeted” and loaded with “distortions”.

    Mr Hewson’s argument is buttressed by the findings of the tax review chaired by Ken Henry in 2009: “The structure of the existing tax concessions is inequitable because high-income earners benefit much more from the superannuation tax concessions than low-income earners.” ]

    You know, i didn’t vote for him, but now, he does tend to speak a bit of sense and is worth hearing.

  45. [TIM SOUTPHOMMASANE: There’s no cause for revisiting the Racial Discrimination Act debate. We had extensive, exhaustive debate about this issue last year and the overwhelming majority of the Australian public have made emphatically clear that the current law should be retained. In any case, the Racial Discrimination Act covers only the attributes of race, ethnicity, national origin. It does not cover religion. There is complete and unfettered freedom to discuss and debate matters of religion, religious identity, religious belief and religious practise]

    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2015/s4161070.htm

  48. [A point of possible pedantry: I thought the plural of “mouse” (in the PC version of the word) was “mouses”.]

    According to an unquestionable source (aka a Google search), you can use either ‘mice’ or ‘mouses’.

  49. Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, January 13, 2015 at 11:44 am | PERMALINK
    victoria

    [As confessions has stated several times, it does seem that the federal coalition are doing their best to have Labor states

    Perhaps Abbott thinks it will be easier to cut Federal funds that support State run services if they are all Labor States? Genius, sociopath style.]

    Abbott certainly did napthine no favours just prior to the Vic election. Seems to be doing the same thing now

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