The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.
There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.
The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year”), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).
A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).
I see what Abbott is up to. He reduces the GP medicare rebate $5 by regulation. Then introduces the legislation enabling the GPs to charge the $5 copayment.
If the legislation fails to pass, the Doctors will not be able to keep the money and are out of pocket.
Mean and Tricky.
Well, fresh from the excitement of the GRNs win in Prahran,Id missed this crap:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/medicare-copayment-penny-drops-as-abbott-vows-to-listen-and-learn-20141209-123m55.html
WTF?? WTF is an $5 ‘optional’ co-payment? Neither fish nor fowl,thats what.
Hopeless flailing from a hopeless government.
[Tony Abbott didn’t say it, but his Medicare co-payment backdown is a belated admission that a centrepiece of his May budget was unfair to the elderly, to families with young children and the vulnerable.
Just like the promise that his signature parental leave scheme will be better targeted and that modest entitlements for defence personnel facing a pay cut will be restored. In each case, the unfairness of the original decision is the common denominator.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/medicare-copayment-penny-drops-as-abbott-vows-to-listen-and-learn-20141209-123m55.html
ruawake
The regulation would still need to survive a disallowance motion.
I take it that Glenn Lazarus will not be supporting the revised ‘not a copayment’ copayment.
Should Labor win the next election, Medibank (and other private health insurer) shares will probably tank.
So, Julie “Asbestos is good for humanity” Bishop is the only pollie with a positive rating, eh?
That’ll soon be wiped out when she gets made Liberal Party leader. She’ll be so bad, the nation will be screaming out for Abbott to return.
Yeah. That bad.
Let’s not forget she was forcibly removed from the Shadow Treasury position due to gross incompetence. So incompetent in fact they replaced her with Eleventy Joe.
Yeah. That incompetent.
ruawake@100
With the implosion of the PUP vote, I foresee all PUP senators, except maybe Dio Wang, becoming independents and generally being more inclined to vote with Labor.
[I see what Abbott is up to.]
Yep. Was obvious to me what the final game plan would likely be as soon as I heard the news of the ‘backflip’ driving home.
In the meantime, it’s a co-payment by stealth by reducing the amount people can claim, and allowing GPs to jack up fees to cover the reduction.
Utterly gutless. He should take this to an election and let voters decide.
vic @ 103
Doesn’t look like the media are any more capable of learning than the Coalition. This is not a backdown, it’s yet another attempt to get things through the back door once they fail to get them in through the front. They’re not even trying to argue their case, just play stupid games.
Here’s a headline for posterity
[Poll Bludger: Labor wins Fisher byelection, South Australia]
steve777
There are only two health insurers listed in Australia – Medibank Private (ASX code – MPL) and NIB Holdings (ASX code – NHF). All the others are either overseas companies or mutuals.
Disclaimer: I own shares in NHF. I got them when the company was de-mutualised and listed on the ASX.
Re Lefty e @102: this change is in effect is a copayment of $5. The only difference is GPs don’t get $2 for ‘Administration’, children and oensioners are exempt and it won’t apply to pathology tests. The dodgy Liberal Mates Research Fund’ is still there.
It will still have the effect of ending bulk billing for adults without concession cards, so will it serve the same purpose as the original proposal, a first step in dismantling Medicare.
DAN – Totally agree. At the moment, she’s the Not Tony candidate. Once he’s gone and she’s in charge, she’ll go pear-shaped. Rather ironically, the “boys” refusal to give her a key domestic portfolio has kept her pure and unsullied. But wait till she has to start talking about the economy.
And think how pissed a lot of lib voters will be when they see, once again, that Malcolm has been overlooked.
However, like drowning men, the libs will grab any straw that floats past.
Dio:
The Liberals really do seem to be on the nose in your state.
Dio
Has that been confirmed?
Dio: Where did that headline come from. Latest it appears Libs wil win by about 40 votes.
Darn:
The final result hasn’t been confirmed, but there has been a late surge to the Liberals. I’m guessing that Dio is having a mini dig at William.
It does look that way fess. A pretty thoughtless thing to do IMO.
http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/2014-by-election-of-fisher/fisher-results-menu/pollingboothsummary/714
This evening, the Liberal 17 votes ahead.
DisplayName
Posted Tuesday, December 9, 2014 at 8:58 pm | PERMALINK
vic @ 103
[Doesn’t look like the media are any more capable of learning than the Coalition. This is not a backdown, it’s yet another attempt to get things through the back door once they fail to get them in through the front. They’re not even trying to argue their case, just play stupid games.]
Agreed. We are poorly served by the media. Actually the Project show tonight did a better job of outlinining the reality
The headline is from a Google search I performed about an hour ago.
I don’t think either side has claimed victory yet.
Darn:
Whatever the final result in Fisher, the Liberals can’t take any comfort from the by election. Granted, I’m not in SA, but I did not see any serious forecasts of a Labor victory, or even close to one.
And when you consider the age of the SA Labor govt, and that it won only 47 or so % of the TPP vote less than 12 months ago at a state election, this result in Fisher is pretty remarkable.
fess
[The Liberals really do seem to be on the nose in your state.]
The Libs here are still filthy about Johnston’s “couldn’t trust them to build a canoe” comment.
Can someone explain to me how the safe state Victorian National Party seat of Lowan can be considered doubtful. The VEC has it in the doubtful column.
I can’t see GPs and their patients being too pleased about the $5 cut to the medicare rebate, which has gone up at a much lower rate than CPI for years. Bulk-billing for those who aren’t exempt will die.
Diogenes
[Bulk-billing for those who aren’t exempt will die.]
Mission accomplished.
[122
confessions
And when you consider the age of the SA Labor govt, and that it won only 47 or so % of the TPP vote less than 12 months ago at a state election, this result in Fisher is pretty remarkable.]
Its especially remarkable when you consider that the Libs racked up their majority state TPP by running up huge margins in safe seats very much like Fisher, while failing in the marginals.
Gary – apparently there’s problem with the ABC election software’s treatment of that seat.
Thanks Jimmy. I just noticed 100.9% counted. Yeah, there’s a problem all right.
Re the SA result, it’s not like SA Labor has been kicking goals since the election. They’ve had huge problems with health, education and a VERY unpopular huge Emergency Services Levy hike. The Libs haven’t really done anything.
I think the Lib Feds really poisoned Fisher. I can’t see any other reason for the huge swing. It was a protest against Abbott and his government.
Email from Labor
[Moments ago Tony Abbott said his GP Tax was dead.
But it isn’t the backdown we wanted – it’s just a GP Tax through the backdoor.
They are doing exactly the same thing they did with the Petrol Tax – sneaking it around the Parliament, to try to destroy Medicare and make healthcare unaffordable in this country.
Labor will protect Medicare. We built it and we won’t let Tony Abbott destroy it. We are going to protect ordinary Australian families from this Government’s dishonest attempts to stand between them and a trip to their doctor when they need medical attention.
Can you share this graphic and say you’ll stand with Labor in this fight? If you don’t have Facebook, forward this email onto a friend or post it on Twitter.
This move is just a desperate Prime Minister under pressure. You and I have been building pressure on Tony Abbott for months and now he’s doing anything to save his own skin. He isn’t protecting Medicare – he’s just trying to protect himself.
He may have changed his talking points, but he hasn’t changed his mind.
Together, we can defend our universal healthcare system.
Labor introduced Medibank under Gough Whitlam, and Fraser ditched it. We came back with Medicare in 1984 and no matter what Tony Abbott does we will not stop fighting for Medicare, and we will save it.
Thanks for standing with me on this,
Bill]
Diogenes’ headline in Google links to this article: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/12/08/poll-bludger-sa-byelection-a-canary-in-the-electoral-coal-mine-for-fed-coaltion/?wpmp_switcher=mobile
It was published in yesterday’s Crikey. the headline is now “Poll Bludger: SA byelection a canary in the electoral coal mine for fed Coaltion”.
Dio:
Carey M mentioned that the SA Liberals weren’t as on the ball for the by election as Labor was. Yes Abbott and the feds were a drag on their vote, but as we saw with the federal Libs in NSW at the 2010 federal election, poor organisation and coordination can really bite you as well.
[62
victoria
Shorten was just interviewed on the Project. He communicated a clear concise and calm message about Abbott’s latest brain fart on tne GP co payment.]
I missed it but I’ll try to catch it when repeats later tonight. Thanks for the heads up.
Jimmy Doyle
No worries.
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, December 9, 2014 at 9:19 pm | PERMALINK
Darn:
Whatever the final result in Fisher, the Liberals can’t take any comfort from the by election. Granted, I’m not in SA, but I did not see any serious forecasts of a Labor victory, or even close to one.
And when you consider the age of the SA Labor govt, and that it won only 47 or so % of the TPP vote less than 12 months ago at a state election, this result in Fisher is pretty remarkable.]
Yes, either way the Liberals have had a huge wake up call.I wouldn’t be surprised if Pyne’s starting to sweat a bit.
Fess
The SA Libs are a very amateur outfit compared to Labor which is a very well oiled machine.
[136
darn
I wouldn’t be surprised if Pyne’s starting to sweat a bit.]
No doubt the pompous twit will maintain a stiff (but somewhat sweaty) upper lip in the face of his own incompetence and universal unpopularity.
[94
Steve777
Will take a Green any day over a Liberal.]
I must admit I was a little disappointed that Labor didn’t win Prahran, but yes I agree with you 100%.
The govt advert on tertiary education has been shown on channel 10 tonight
Here is the current Fisher result
http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/2014-by-election-of-fisher/fisher-results-menu/districtsummary/714
As you can see Lib is ahead by 17 votes, with a few postals to come. Would appear to be gone by a whisker for Labor
I think that if John Howard were in charge, he would have brazenly dropped unpopular policies which were going nowhere. Tony Abbott doesn’t even have the skill of walking away from a toxic idea. He does a kinda sorta mea culpa press conference, then he presents a different PPL idea with no detail, then he claims to be dropping a GP co-payment when he is still clinging to it grimly. He doesn’t know what his strategy should be: stand his ground or retreat to more favourable ground. He tries to do a bit of both but that confuses voters even more.
He is paying the price for being shallow on public policy. He has never seemed that interested in it. He doesn’t seem to read voraciously, question experts, listen to voters, and think about policy. A person in his position should be putting in a lot of reading and thinking time. My hunch is that the only public policy commitments he really cares about are ones he cannot act on or cannot do much about: banning abortion, and increasing the religiosity of Australian culture. His chaplain program and the public funding for the training of priests are sneaky below-the-radar measures to achieve a goal he really cares about. His intellectual interests are better suited to the papacy than to the prime ministership of a democracy.
On health care, education, energy and materials efficiency, pollution, IT infrastructure, renewable energy, privacy, national security – fundamentally he just isn’t interested in what happens. So he adopts slogans from special interests and ideologues who DO care – “coal is good for humanity”, “we need price signals for GP visits”, “liberate our universities”. Those are not his views. He pretends to have views because it’s part of the gig to have views. He can’t be PM and try to ban abortions and have no positions on other matters.
He has a lazy, incurious mind.
[bemused @ 107
ruawake@100
The Brick nails it.
Glenn Lazarus @SenatorLazarus
Follow
Abbott Government dumps GP Co-payment for a GP Woe-payment. What a NASTY government!
With the implosion of the PUP vote, I foresee all PUP senators, except maybe Dio Wang, becoming independents and generally being more inclined to vote with Labor]
Lazarus is starting to act distinctly bolshie. He sounds as if he’d be right at home in the Labor Party. No wonder Dastyari has been carefully and assiduously courting him.
Darn:
Whether the voters of Sturt decide to ditch their current sitting member remains to be seen. Even when Labor had a high vote in 2007, Pyne was still returned.
JimmyDoyle@139
Both are anti-Labor.
Looks like the s.a fairness police didn’t do the job properly in fisher.
bemused – yes I agree. But when I have to make a compromise choice, I will choose a progressive over a conservative.
Hi ESJ! It’s lovely to see you back commenting here! I must admit I’ve always thought you were something of a myth… you know… a conservative on PB. You are in foreign territory comrade!
Hello Jimmy, viva la difference comrade !
[Looks like the s.a fairness police didn’t do the job properly in fisher.]
Since Fisher would have been considered a safe “Liberal seat”, had there been a re-distribution in attempt to even it out it may have made it harder, not easier for the Liberals to win.