The always reliable James J in comments relates that the Newspoll, to be published in tomorrow’s Australian, shows the Coalition back to its post-budget worst, with Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred. Primary votes are 39% for Labor, 36% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens. Whereas Newspoll’s two-party results have recently had a habit of coming in better for Labor than the primary votes would lead you to expect, this one sounds about right.
After a period where the two leaders have been roughly even, this poll gives Bill Shorten a 43-37 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. Abbott is on 36% approval and 55% disapproval, while Shorten is at 39% and 41%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1166.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly poll from Roy Morgan, which was also unpleasant for the government, with Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor up one to 38.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12%. Using preference flows from the 2013 election rather than respondent allocation, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3140.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research turns in another static result on voting intention, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens all stable on the primary vote (40%, 38% and 10%), and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48. The only move is that Palmer United is back down to 3% after two weeks at 4%.
Essential has shown good foresight in identifying free trade and China as the subject of its supplementary questions this week. Opinion on a free trade agreement is evenly divided at 34% approval and 35% disapproval, with 35% saying China will benefit more versus only 12% for Australia and 24% for both equally. Respondents are predictably more keen on greater access to Chinese markets for Australian businesses (61% support, 12% oppose) than fewer restrictions on Chinese workers coming to Australia (20% support, 57% oppose). When asked to rate likeliest beneficiaries of a deal, the Australian government, mining companies and business come on to with 52%, 48% and 44%, and the ever-embattled working people bottom on 25%. Beyond that, respondents were found to be highly cynical about the G20, with 62% rating it an expensive talk fest over 16% for the alternative option crediting it with real outcomes for Australia and the global economy.
Other questions tested respondents about the size of Australia’s refugee intake, with a general but not overwhelming tendency to rate it higher than it actually is. Opinions on the utility of the refugee program are evenly divided, except that only 20% agreed that Australia’s overall population is too low and we need to increase the number of refugees to boost the numbers in our workforce, with 62% disagreeing.
1,443 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”
The WEst has regularly reported on the matter with Palmer, most recently from memory was only the other day.
THE GOVERNMENT GOT F’ED IN THE A
Apart from his support for the RET, a weak ETS, same-sex marriage and a republic (an issue which is going nowhere), how would a PM Turnbull be any different from PM Abbott in policy terms? He is a neoliberal on economics. The critical issues we face are economic and ecological in nature.
He’d be an improvement on Tony Abbott but most of his policies favour financial elites instead of the people.
I havent heard much about it of late, until i happened to see hedley thomas on sky earlier talking about it
The West has been running with the story for ages now. I haven’t really engaged with it since the first story I read didn’t seem to have much of value. Perhaps things have changed.
THE GOVERNMENT GOT F’ED IN THE A]
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I guess there it is dependent on whether clive loses the court case next week. If he does, there could well be charges laid against him for fraud
Abbott’s negotiating tactics with cross bench parliamentarians is making Julia Gillard look like a genius.
@bencubby: Washington Post: ‘How Australia’s winking Tony Abbott became one of the world’s most unpopular prime ministers.’ http://t.co/d7UckwoaIe
Report of Turnbull’s comments on 7.30
Rather stale don’t you think? Dated May 22.
Sorry yes. I should have added in the good old days.
Can China contain the US Empire ?
With Xi here in our midst and Abbott singing his praises,a US writer looks at the contest ..peaceful?…between China and the USA,,,which still
weants to see its imperial power dominant everywhere…despite it being nostril deep in the shi& of the Mid East
While in Beijing last week and un-noticed by most western media,the Chinese and the Russians signed a second energy deal…on top of their huge gas deals,the russians will now supply vast quantities of petroleum across the asisan landbridge to China,and out ovf the reach of a US blockade
The EU’s semi- fascist coup in the Ukraine has served to link the Russians and their vast energy recources to the Chinese economy ..with benefits for both sides of the deal
The author looks at the diminishing success of the USA in so many fields…nowadays even Abbott seems disenchanted with them
[Abbott’s negotiating tactics with cross bench parliamentarians is making Julia Gillard look like a genius.]
I think it’s fair to say her negotiating skills renders her genius status in any case.
And there was never any way lazy Abbott with zero people skills was ever going to match her abilities on that front.
Good on you Jacqui and Ricky. Protecting the FOFA reforms must have the finance spivs frothing at the mouth.
[I don’t think Turnbull entered politics to be Communications Minister and take orders from Abbott. He must believe he can be PM.]
In the words of Darryl Kerrigan – Tell ‘im he’s dreaming.
Can China contain the USA
from Counterpunch USA
[I’ve noticed that regardless of whether it’s the ABC or The West reporting on her, they always manage to use the least attractive photos of Rinehart.]
Are there any “attractive” photos of her. At the risk of being sexist, she is not an attractive person on any level.
If there was ever any question over Abott’s negotiating skills we only have to look at the aftermath of the 2010 election.
And then he put Abetz and Pyne I’m charge of dealing with the minor parties in this parliament.
Welcome back deblonay.
Been on a trip?
Are the govt’s FOFA changes definitely gone, or just stymied for now?
The greater ugliness is in her soul, or what passes for one. 😐
[Rather stale don’t you think? Dated May 22.]
Probably, but since then he’s become even more unpopular.
While the cuts to the ABC and SBS can be criticised on their merits, their greater significance must be the fact that Mr Abbott lied about them on camera.
Mr Shorten and the ALP should go in hard on this; they have made good progress in framing Mr Abbott as a bare faced liar, but this is a gift from God.
Because if people are convinced by the time of the next election that Mr Abbott lies whenever he feels like it, the ALP will be able to hang the craziest recommendations from the Commission of Audit (remember that?)around his neck, and refute his denials of any intention to implement them by reference to all the lies he has told in the past.
So provide some up to date reports on his soaring unpopularity. The LA Times article a day or two ago was good.
Yes Abbott has a way with him that’s for sure.
@smh: Commercial network bosses are livid over proposal that they say will be ‘hugely damaging’ to their profits. http://t.co/A8FoJckZg0
Worth repeating to highlight why some of his party are getting upset.
Abbott is a headkicker and partisan warrior. Negotiation isn’t really his thing.
Unflattering is probably the word I was looking for rather than attractive. But compare and contrast with reports of male business leaders such as Kerry Stokes. Usually depicted in photographs as thoughtful or cheery.
It is so frustrating that Sarah Ferguson is not in Lea Sales chair at the moment. 7.30 would then be worth watching, especially now…
[So provide some up to date reports on his soaring unpopularity. The LA Times article a day or two ago was good.]
Fair point. And that LA Times one was good (for us), but a shocker for Abbott.
And not to mention that Abbott freely made those remarks on national TV, not in QT or in parliament thereby limiting his political opponents from running with the vision in adverts. The footage is in abundance on youtube.
But in any case, the list of Abbott lies and broken election commitments is growing by the day. I dare say Labor has so much fodder to use against the coalition on the issue of broken trust.
I take your point, however The West and Channel 7 are always going to show flattering photos of Stokes as he, for all intents and purposes, owns them.
A view from the USA – Obama puts Abbott on the spot: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120292/2014-g20-summit-obama-challenges-abbott-climate-change.
The Wall Street Journal says someting similar in a headline but its article is behind the paywall.
Like News Ltd with Rupert. Though Twiggy’s another eg. You rarely see unflattering media photos of him.
Though I imagine if Rinehart cared she’d be onto this in a flash.
There are really just two kinds of thing in the “real” economy:
Capital (defined very broadly to include human, social, fixed, intellectual, engineered and naturally-provided resources, taken these days to include the laws of physics, chemistry and biology); and
The Products created by the use of capital, effectively the “income” we receive from our physical and intellectual exertions, conceived/measured in both monetary and non-monetary terms.
Globally, we are experiencing a decline in the per capita growth rate of income, manifesting in weak labour demand, fiscal stress, rising inequality and widespread under-development of our economic resources, including our capital (taken most broadly).
Since it is only be adding to and improving our capital that we can expand incomes, the solution to weak income growth is to re-invest in and re-engineer our capital stock – that is, to re-engineer the physical, social, intellectual, cultural and environmental resources.
Our experience since at least the LTCM crisis and particularly since the end of the dot.com boom and the GFC has been the application of the techniques of financial repression in order to maintain solvency in the debt markets. This has tended to direct monetary flows into
monetary “assets”; and towards
gearing the consumption spending of the elite, especially their use of urban land and housing
Neither of these channels for financial “assets” can add anything to our general productive potential or, therefore, to income flows. They are essentially useless to the economy, though they are valuable to those who hold positions and deal in them.
From this we can also deduce that the problem is not the creation of financial assets per se. It is the form they take, which is overwhelmingly as narrowly distributed, negotiable, redeemable, hot debt.
We need to rethink capital.
Capital does not need to be “collected” before being spent. It is a produced resource, and it is a resource that is made available and valuable by social means.
We need to start applying capital to the income-needs of the many, rather than simply to the liquidity needs of the few.
To do this, we need to create new classes of financial assets – equity or quasi equity that is available for investment in productive capital. Such capital is usually the most useful but is also the most expensive form of capital from the viewpoint of the enterprise balance sheet, and is difficult to both obtain and hold. Not only is it scarce, it is very highly taxed. This compounds its mis-allocation.
Equity is the quintessential long-term asset. We need to deploy much more of it in the “real” economy, which is increasingly deprived of essential funding, not just here but in all economies. This is nowhere more obvious than in Australian manufacturing, which is starved of all kinds of capital and which is naturally failing to thrive.
Poll Roundup: G20 No Help To Government
2PP aggregate 53.1 (+.8) to ALP
But has it really been measured yet in any polls or are we still waiting to see the effect?
It showcased Abbotts stupidity and inadequacies quite effectively.
confessions @ 1382: Indeed. The important thing, however, is to work hard now to get the message entrenched in the public consciousness that Mr Abbott is a liar, so that instead of having to say it during the 2016 campaign, thereby looking negative, the ALP will simply be able to rely on the fact that people won’t believe his denials, perhaps reinforced with throwaway line (eg, “well, of course, he always denies things like that before the election…).
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DARREN LAVER GOT F’ED IN THE A.
Labor’s message at the next poll must include something along the lines of “you can’t believe anything Abbott says”.
Maybe use the wizard of oz theme if rights obtainable.
The government is back to step 1. It can try to pass legislation to achieve the same effect or try its luck again with regulation – ultimately the numbers game is the same either way, and legislation is a bit more legit.
Of course the flakiness of Lambie and Muir means the government can hope to talk them around and have some future success … we’ll just have to wait and see.
I think Abbott’s brand is well on the way to being trashed. The important thing is to ensure the entire Liberal brand goes with it. Maybe a three word slogan … “Liberals are liars” 🙂
Of course the other thing in the mix if the polls stay the way they are for the govt is the pressure from within the coalition partyroom.
Lots of nervous first term backbenchers looking for assurances that it’s all good or some pork in the pre-election budget that is going to be harder to find with revenue contractions and the govt’s cuts being rejected in the parliament.
FWIW a guy at work was saying the other day that his niece works in Dept of Human Services and the govt is trying to move hell and earth to regulate whatever it can in that portfolio that was rejected through the budget.
Apparently it’s not a very nice place to work these days with staff moral at very low levels and not a great deal of communication between Canberra and the states.
The Libs are not being very nice to either but Labor OTOH is being nice and is historically very good at it.
I see a strong possibility of Muir and Lambie moving closer to Labor in their voting pattern.
confessions – fwiw X is on LL talking about this and has explicitly stated that he will be looking to negotiate with the government over the FOFA changes – ie they’re apparently keen to keep the issue alive, although it’s unclear what parts of the government’s desired changes X might be happy to wave through … perhaps some of the “opt in” requirements. X is being opportunistic. Surprise.
I imagine the government might deprioritize FOFA changes for a while given the other battles they have on their hands, and it’s not like it’s going to improve the budget.
Well its goodnight from me. An undoubtedly bad day for the government 🙂
Temperatures below freezing in all 50 states of America, including Hawaii, but it couldn’t be Climate Change…. so what is it?