The group voting ticket preferences for the Victorian election are now available, although not in a terribly straightforward way. The Victorian Electoral Commission has published them as an unwieldy XML file in lieu of something more user-friendly which will be up tomorrow, although Daniel Beratis in comments has been able to locate files on their site which display them in ballot paper form. However, a more user-friendly option is available courtesy of Antony Green, who has the preferences listed in order on PDFs.
Over the next hour or two, I will be progressively performing my usual trick of detailing the effective preference orderings for each party in each region, which is to say that candidates certain to win (usually but not always the top two on the Labor and Coalition tickets) will be excluded from consideration. At the time I write this I only have Eastern Metropolitan to offer, but the others will be added progressively in alphabetical order (UPDATE: All done now). This is a complex business, so if you see any errors, please let me know.
EASTERN METROPOLITAN
Excluded from consideration: the top two Liberal and Labor candidates.
Voluntary Euthanasia: Liberal Democratic; Sex Party; Cyclists; Greens; Animal Justice; Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Rise Up Australia; Country Alliance; DLP; Palmer United; Liberal; Family First; Labor; Australian Christians.
Liberal: Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; DLP; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Labor; Rise Up Australia; Greens.
Palmer United: Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Australian Christians; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Greens; Family First; Liberal; Country Alliance; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; Voluntary Euthanasia; Labor.
Liberal Democratic: Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; People Power; Rise Up Australia; Liberal; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Labor; Palmer United; Greens; Animal Justice.
Family First: Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; DLP; Palmer United; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; Labor; People Power; Cyclists; Country Alliance; Animal Justice; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
Sex Party: Liberal Democratic; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Cyclists; People Power; Greens; Labor; Palmer United; Country Alliance; Liberal; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
DLP: Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Liberal; People Power; Palmer United; Country Alliance; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Labor; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens.
Rise Up Australia: Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Liberal Democratic; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Liberal; Labor; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Palmer United; Voluntary Euthanasia; Cyclists; Greens.
Country Alliance: Liberal; Family First; DLP; Australian Christians; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Labor; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens.
Greens: Animal Justice; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Labor; People Power; Palmer United; Liberal; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Labor: Cyclists; Sex Party; Greens; People Power; Animal Justice; Country Alliance; DLP; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; Voluntary Euthanasia; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Australian Christians: Liberal; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Palmer United; People Power; Cyclists; Country Alliance; Labor; Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; Greens; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Animal Justice: Cyclists; People Power; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
Shooters And Fishers: Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; People Power; Cyclists; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Palmer United; Country Alliance; Sex Party; Liberal; Labor; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Greens.
People Power: Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Country Alliance; Sex Party; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Palmer United.
Cyclists: Voluntary Euthanasia; Greens; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United; Sex Party; Family First; DLP; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Animal Justice; Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Rise Up Australia.
EASTERN VICTORIA
Excluded from consideration: the top two Coalition and first Labor candidates.
Voluntary Euthanasia: Liberal Democratic; Sex Party; Greens; Shooters And Fishers; Cyclists; People Power; Animal Justice; DLP; Family First; Labor; Palmer United; Country Alliance; Coalition; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians.
Liberal Democratic: Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Family First; People Power; Coalition; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Labor; Palmer United; Greens; Animal Justice.
Sex Party: Animal Justice; Shooters And Fishers; Voluntary Euthanasia; Cyclists; Liberal Democratic; Greens; People Power; Labor; Palmer United; Country Alliance; Coalition; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Greens: Animal Justice; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; People Power; Palmer United; Labor; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Coalition; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Shooters And Fishers: Palmer United; Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; DLP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Cyclists; People Power; Sex Party; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Coalition; Labor; Animal Justice; Greens.
Palmer United: Shooters And Fishers; Coalition; Australian Christians; Greens; Labor; Rise Up Australia; People Power; Family First; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Sex Party; DLP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance.
Rise Up Australia: Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Country Alliance; Family First; People Power; Coalition; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Palmer United; Cyclists; Greens.
Coalition: Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Family First; People Power; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; DLP; Sex Party; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Labor; Rise Up Australia; Voluntary Euthanasia; Greens.
Labor: Country Alliance; People Power; Cyclists; Greens; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Animal Justice; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Coalition; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Australian Christians: Shooters And Fishers; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Coalition; Family First; People Power; Country Alliance; Labor; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Greens; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Family First: Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Coalition; Labor; People Power; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
Animal Justice: Cyclists; People Power; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United; Family First; DLP; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
DLP: Shooters And Fishers; Rise Up Australia; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Family First; People Power; Liberal Democratic; Coalition; Labor; Palmer United; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens.
People Power: Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; DLP; Animal Justice; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; Family First; Cyclists; Sex Party; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United.
Cyclists: Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal Democratic; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Greens; DLP; Labor; Coalition; Country Alliance; People Power; Palmer United; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Country Alliance: Liberal Democratic; Coalition; DLP; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Labor; Rise Up Australia; People Power; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens.
NORTHERN METROPOLITAN
Excluded from consideration: the top two Labor and first Liberal candidates.
Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll: Sex Party; Peter Allan; Greens; Animal Justice; Voice For The West; Family First; Cyclists; Labor; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal Democratic; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Australian Christians; Palmer United; People Power; Country Alliance; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers; DLP; Liberal.
Shooters And Fishers: Sex Party; People Power; Family First; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Cyclists; Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Voluntary Euthanasia; Palmer United; Peter Allan; Liberal; Labor; Animal Justice; Voice For The West; Greens.
Liberal: Family First; Australian Christians; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; People Power; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Palmer United; Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; DLP; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Cyclists; Voice For The West; Voluntary Euthanasia; Labor; Animal Justice; Rise Up Australia; Peter Allan; Greens.
Cyclists: People Power; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Peter Allan; Voluntary Euthanasia; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Voice For The West; Greens; Liberal Democratic; DLP; Family First; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance.
Australian Christians: People Power; Family First; Liberal; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Country Alliance; Voice For The West; Labor; Peter Allan; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
Rise Up Australia: Family First; People Power; DLP; Australian Christians; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Liberal; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Liberal Democratic; Voice For The West; Peter Allan; Labor; Animal Justice; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Voluntary Euthanasia; Palmer United; Sex Party; Cyclists; Greens.
Animal Justice: Peter Allan; People Power; Voice For The West; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Cyclists; Greens; Family First; Labor; Country Alliance; Liberal; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Australian Christians; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
Family First: Peter Allan; People Power; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Voice For The West; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Animal Justice; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Cyclists; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
DLP: People Power; Family First; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Voice For The West; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United; Peter Allan; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Voluntary Euthanasia; Greens; Sex Party.
Vote 1 Local Jobs: Family First; DLP; Country Alliance; Peter Allan; Sex Party; Voice For The West; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal Democratic; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Cyclists; Palmer United; Animal Justice; Liberal; Labor; Greens.
Country Alliance: Family First; People Power; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Voice For The West; Sex Party; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Peter Allan; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal; Cyclists; Labor; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens.
Liberal Democratic: Sex Party; People Power; Family First; Voice For The West; Shooters And Fishers; DLP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Country Alliance; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Peter Allan; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Cyclists; Labor; Liberal; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Palmer United; Greens; Animal Justice.
Greens: Sex Party; Animal Justice; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Peter Allan; Cyclists; Voice For The West; Voluntary Euthanasia; Labor; Palmer United; People Power; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Liberal; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Peter Allan: Animal Justice; People Power; Voice For The West; Sex Party; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Greens; Cyclists; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Labor; DLP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Country Alliance; Family First; Australian Christians; Liberal; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; Shooters And Fishers; Rise Up Australia.
Palmer United: Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Cyclists; Liberal; Greens; Labor; Voice For The West; People Power; Country Alliance; Rise Up Australia; Peter Allan; Animal Justice; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Liberal Democratic; Sex Party; DLP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Australian Christians.
People Power: Peter Allan; Animal Justice; Family First; Voice For The West; DLP; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal; Greens; Labor; Palmer United; Sex Party.
Voice For The West: Peter Allan; People Power; Animal Justice; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; DLP; Country Alliance; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Rise Up Australia; Palmer United; Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal.
Voluntary Euthanasia: Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; Voice For The West; Greens; Peter Allan; Palmer United; Labor; People Power; Country Alliance; Rise Up Australia; Family First; DLP; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; Cyclists; Australian Christians.
Sex Party: Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Peter Allan; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Greens; People Power; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Cyclists; Voice For The West; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Palmer United; Liberal; Country Alliance; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Family First
Labor: Sex Party; People Power; Voice For The West; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Greens; Country Alliance; DLP; Animal Justice; Basics Rock ‘N’ Roll; Cyclists; Family First; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; Peter Allan; Voluntary Euthanasia; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
NORTHERN VICTORIA
Excluded from consideration: the top two Coalition and first Labor candidates.
DLP: Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Coalition; Labor; Palmer United; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Greens.
Palmer United: Shooters And Fishers; Coalition; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Rise Up Australia; People Power; Greens; Labor; Sex Party; Family First; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; DLP.
Sex Party: Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Greens; Labor; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Coalition; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Shooters And Fishers: Palmer United; Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; People Power; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Cyclists; Coalition; Labor; Animal Justice; Greens.
Family First: Country Alliance; Shooters And Fishers; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Palmer United; Coalition; Labor; Liberal Democratic; People Power; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Greens; Sex Party.
Cyclists: Sex Party; Shooters And Fishers; Animal Justice; Liberal Democratic; Greens; Country Alliance; Labor; Coalition; People Power; Family First; DLP; Palmer United; Rise Up Australia.
Animal Justice: Cyclists; Sex Party; People Power; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Family First; Palmer United; DLP; Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
Country Alliance: Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers; Coalition; People Power; DLP; Sex Party; Family First; Labor; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens.
Coalition: Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; People Power; Palmer United; DLP; Sex Party; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Labor; Rise Up Australia; Greens.
Greens: Animal Justice; Cyclists; Sex Party; People Power; Palmer United; Labor; Coalition; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Rise Up Australia.
People Power: Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Animal Justice; Cyclists; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; Greens; Family First; Sex Party; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United.
Liberal Democratic: Country Alliance; Sex Party; Shooters And Fishers; DLP; Family First; People Power; Rise Up Australia; Coalition; Cyclists; Labor; Palmer United; Greens; Animal Justice.
Rise Up Australia: Country Alliance; DLP; Family First; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Coalition; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Sex Party; Cyclists; Greens.
Labor: Country Alliance; Palmer United; Greens; Cyclists; Animal Justice; People Power; Sex Party; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Coalition; Rise Up Australia.
SOUTH-EASTERN METROPOLITAN
Excluded from consideration: the top two Coalition and Labor candidates.
Sex Party: Liberal Democratic; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Greens; Labor; People Power; Liberal; Palmer United; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Australian Christians: Rise Up Australia; DLP; Liberal; Family First; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Cyclists; Palmer United; Labor; Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
Labor: People Power; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens; Cyclists; DLP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal Democratic; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Voluntary Euthanasia: Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Greens; Animal Justice; Labor; Australian Christians; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; DLP; Rise Up Australia; People Power; Family First; Palmer United.
Animal Justice: People Power; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Family First; DLP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
DLP: Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; People Power; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic; Liberal; Labor; Palmer United; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens.
Rise Up Australia: Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; DLP; People Power; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; Labor; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Palmer United; Cyclists; Greens.
People Power: Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Cyclists; Shooters And Fishers; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United.
Family First: Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Liberal; People Power; Cyclists; Labor; Animal Justice; Greens; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party.
Palmer United: Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Animal Justice; Greens; Liberal; Labor; Cyclists; Sex Party; People Power; Rise Up Australia; Family First; DLP; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal Democratic.
Cyclists: People Power; Greens; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Sex Party; Liberal; Palmer United; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Liberal: Australian Christians; Family First; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; DLP; Sex Party; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Labor; Rise Up Australia; Greens.
Liberal Democratic: Voluntary Euthanasia; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; People Power; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United; Greens; Animal Justice.
Shooters And Fishers: Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; DLP; People Power; Australian Christians; Palmer United; Family First; Sex Party; Liberal; Labor; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Greens.
Greens: Animal Justice; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; People Power; Palmer United; Labor; Liberal Democratic; Liberal; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN
Excluded from consideration: the top two Coalition and top Labor candidates.
Australian Christians: Rise Up Australia; DLP; Liberal; Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Family First; Cyclists; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Labor; Clive Jackson; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; Greens; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia.
DLP: Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; People Power; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Liberal; Labor; Palmer United; Clive Jackson; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens.
Liberal Democratic: Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Cyclists; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Country Alliance; People Power; Clive Jackson; Rise Up Australia; Liberal; Australian Christians; Labor; Palmer United; Greens; Animal Justice.
Rise Up Australia: Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Liberal; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Clive Jackson; Labor; Animal Justice; Liberal Democratic; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Palmer United; Cyclists; Greens.
Cyclists: Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Clive Jackson; Sex Party; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Country Alliance; People Power; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Australian Christians; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Rise Up Australia.
Clive Jackson: Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia; Greens; People Power; Family First; Palmer United; half Labor, half Liberal; Country Alliance; DLP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic.
Greens: Cyclists; Animal Justice; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Clive Jackson; Labor; People Power; Palmer United; Liberal; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
People Power: Cyclists; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Animal Justice; DLP; Australian Christians; Country Alliance; Clive Jackson; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Voluntary Euthanasia; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic; Liberal; Palmer United; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.
Animal Justice: Cyclists; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Clive Jackson; People Power; Voluntary Euthanasia; Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Country Alliance; Liberal; Palmer United; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Australian Christians; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
Sex Party: Voluntary Euthanasia; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Cyclists; Clive Jackson; Animal Justice; Greens; Labor; Liberal Democratic; Liberal; Palmer United; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Voluntary Euthanasia: Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Greens; Animal Justice; People Power; Clive Jackson; Rise Up Australia; DLP; Australian Christians; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Country Alliance; Labor; Palmer United; Liberal.
Labor: Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Sex Party; People Power; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Greens; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Voluntary Euthanasia; Clive Jackson; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Shooters And Fishers: Sex Party; Cyclists; Australian Christians; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Clive Jackson; People Power; Family First; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Voluntary Euthanasia; Liberal; Labor; Animal Justice; Greens.
Family First: Australian Christians; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Palmer United; Liberal; Labor; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Clive Jackson; People Power; Animal Justice; Greens; Sex Party; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Country Alliance: People Power; DLP; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Labor; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Clive Jackson; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens.
Palmer United: Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; Greens; Labor; Country Alliance; People Power; Clive Jackson; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; DLP; Voluntary Euthanasia.
Liberal: Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; People Power; Clive Jackson; Palmer United; DLP; Cyclists; Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; Voluntary Euthanasia; Animal Justice; Labor; Rise Up Australia; Luzio Grossi/Crystal James; Greens.
Luzio Grossi/Crystal James: Clive Jackson; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Voluntary Euthanasia; People Power; Sex Party; Labor; Greens; Liberal; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; DLP; Rise Up Australia.
WESTERN METROPOLITAN
Excluded from consideration: the top two Labor and top Coalition candidates.
Greens: Voice For The West; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Sex Party; Labor; People Power; Palmer United; Liberal; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
People Power: Voice For The West; DLP; Animal Justice; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Palmer United.
Liberal Democratic: People Power; DLP; Voice For The West; Sex Party; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Country Alliance; Rise Up Australia; Liberal; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Greens; Labor; Palmer United; Animal Justice.
Voice For The West: DLP; People Power; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Sex Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal.
Palmer United: Shooters And Fishers; Animal Justice; Australian Christians; People Power; Greens; Liberal; Labor; Cyclists; Sex Party; Country Alliance; Voice For The West; Family First; Rise Up Australia; Liberal Democratic; DLP.
Country Alliance: DLP; Voice For The West; Liberal Democratic; Liberal; People Power; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; Sex Party; Labor; Cyclists; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens.
Australian Christians: DLP; Rise Up Australia; Liberal; Family First; Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Voice For The West; Country Alliance; Labor; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Greens; Sex Party.
Labor: Voice For The West; Greens; Sex Party; Cyclists; Country Alliance; Palmer United; People Power; DLP; Animal Justice; Liberal Democratic; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Liberal; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Cyclists: Greens; Voice For The West; Sex Party; Labor; Animal Justice; DLP; Liberal Democratic; People Power; Liberal; Family First; Palmer United; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Shooters And Fishers; Rise Up Australia.
Sex Party: Animal Justice; Cyclists; Voice For The West; People Power; Greens; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Shooters And Fishers; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Animal Justice: Cyclists; People Power; Sex Party; Greens; Voice For The West; Labor; Palmer United; Liberal; DLP; Family First; Australian Christians; Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
Family First: Voice For The West; DLP; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Palmer United; Liberal; Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.
Liberal: Family First; Australian Christians; Voice For The West; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; People Power; Palmer United; Liberal Democratic; DLP; Sex Party; Cyclists; Labor; Animal Justice; Rise Up Australia; Greens.
Shooters And Fishers: DLP; People Power; Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Voice For The West; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Sex Party; Liberal; Greens; Labor; Animal Justice.
DLP: Voice For The West; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; Labor; Liberal; Palmer United; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Greens.
Rise Up Australia: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Voice For The West; Liberal; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Sex Party; Cyclists; Greens.
WESTERN VICTORIA
Excluded from consideration: the top two Labor and Coalition candidates.
Palmer United: Shooters And Fishers; People Power; Australian Christians; Cyclists; Greens; Coalition; Labor; Animal Justice; Rise Up Australia; Sex Party; Family First; Voice For The West; Country Alliance; Liberal Democratic; Vote 1 Local Jobs; DLP.
Family First: Vote 1 Local Jobs; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Coalition; Australian Christians; DLP; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers; Voice For The West; Cyclists; People Power; Liberal Democratic; Animal Justice; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.
Cyclists: Greens; Sex Party; Voice For The West; Labor; Animal Justice; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Coalition; Palmer United; Family First; Country Alliance; Rise Up Australia; Australian Christians; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Vote 1 Local Jobs.
Voice For The West: Greens; People Power; Vote 1 Local Jobs; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Family First; Country Alliance; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Palmer United; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Sex Party; Coalition; Labor.
Country Alliance: Vote 1 Local Jobs; DLP; Voice For The West; Liberal Democratic; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Coalition; People Power; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Cyclists; Labor; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Palmer United; Greens.
Rise Up Australia: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Voice For The West; Coalition; Liberal Democratic; Labor; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Palmer United; Cyclists; Greens.
Sex Party: Animal Justice; Voice For The West; Shooters And Fishers; Cyclists; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United; People Power; Liberal Democratic; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Rise Up Australia.
Australian Christians: DLP; Rise Up Australia; Coalition; Family First; People Power; Shooters And Fishers; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Voice For The West; Country Alliance; Labor; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Greens; Sex Party.
People Power: DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Animal Justice; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Family First; Liberal Democratic; Voice For The West; Cyclists; Sex Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Palmer United.
Coalition: Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Australian Christians; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Country Alliance; People Power; Palmer United; Voice For The West; DLP; Sex Party; Liberal Democratic; Cyclists; Labor; Animal Justice; Rise Up Australia; Greens.
Animal Justice: Cyclists; People Power; Sex Party; Greens; Voice For The West; Labor; Coalition; Liberal Democratic; DLP; Australian Christians; Country Alliance; Palmer United; Family First; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Rise Up Australia; Shooters And Fishers.
Liberal Democratic: Shooters And Fishers; DLP; Country Alliance; Sex Party; Family First; Voice For The West; People Power; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; Cyclists; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United; Greens; Animal Justice.
Shooters And Fishers: Palmer United; Country Alliance; DLP; Liberal Democratic; Australian Christians; People Power; Rise Up Australia; Cyclists; Voice For The West; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Family First; Sex Party; Coalition; Labor; Animal Justice; Greens.
Labor: DLP; Country Alliance; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Palmer United; Sex Party; People Power; Greens; Animal Justice; Cyclists; Voice For The West; Liberal Democratic; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Coalition; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
Greens: Animal Justice; Cyclists; Vote 1 Local Jobs; Sex Party; Voice For The West; People Power; Palmer United; Labor; Coalition; Liberal Democratic; Family First; DLP; Shooters And Fishers; Country Alliance; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia.
DLP: Vote 1 Local Jobs; Country Alliance; Shooters And Fishers; Australian Christians; Rise Up Australia; People Power; Voice For The West; Family First; Liberal Democratic; Coalition; Labor; Palmer United; Cyclists; Animal Justice; Sex Party; Greens.
Vote 1 Local Jobs: DLP; Country Alliance; Shooters And Fishers; Family First; Sex Party; Voice For The West; People Power; Cyclists; Australian Christians; Liberal Democratic; Palmer United; Rise Up Australia; Animal Justice; Labor; Coalition; Greens.
For my purposes in setting up the calculator, the XML is miles more friendly.
The AEC designed that XML format in 2006, but at every election since has delivered the preference tickets as PDF files that have required me to data enter the forms to set up the calculator. The XML was only ever delivered after the election.
Thanks to the XML file, I can hand over the calculator set-up data tomorrow without having had to type the buggers in first.
I think this is the last time i’ll have to set upe the calculator software. The next opportunity for it to be used is the next Federal election and I cannot believe the government and opposition would be so stupid as to permit another election under the current rules.
Are we going to see Sex Party in NM, Voice for the West in WM and DLP in WV?? Greens have a pretty good run in EM though if the Labor vote gets over 2 quotas.
Analysing Western Victoria;
People Power/Smart Meters, PUP, Jobs First and SEX party are all preferenced by the ALP, LNP, GRN ahead of other Majors.
I think that means there is a good chance one of those minor parties will win the 5th seat in Western Victoria.
The Greens have preferences from the minor parties, apart from the religious, LDP and Shooters and Fishers. If they manage to stay ahead of them then that helps them there, whether it is anywhere near enough I do not know.
I think SEX or Local Jobs will get 5th seat in western Victoria
I note that family first is putting the sex party last. I guess no-one has had that chat with them about how families get started.
In western Victoria Jobs First is a first common preference by ALP, GRN and LNP. It also has reasonably good preferences by minor parties.
Im calling it now, Vote 1 Local Jobs will win 5th seat in Western Victoria, will also be 2xALP and 2xLNP
Antony – thanks in advance for your calculators. Yes – I think that at a Federal level the Government and Opposition will change the system to allow “above the line preferencing” at the very end of this current term.
RR – “Above the line preferencing” would be an improvement over the machine trading, but it still handicaps the ALP and LNP who lock up votes in their two lead candidates leaving their third candidate more likely to be excluded before the minors. eg 2.25 ALP or LNP quotas in Western Region would be better spread over three candidates on 0.75 quotas each; more than the Greens and more than all the minors in 2010. Achieve it by getting rid of the line and bringing in RR – Robson Rotation.
8
The ALP, National (3rd Coalition candidate) and the Green will not distributed until late in the count and even them only one or two of them will be. It is whether or not they can scoop enough minor party preferences to get past one of the major parties.
GP – 10. “RR” – I like it! I didn’t realise it only came into Tasmania in 1980. One result surely would be LNP and Labor only nominating 3 in their group as 4th and 5th would make it less likely for them to ever get a third candidate up.
Without commenting on the any of the actual choices (other than to note the ALP usually screws up whenever they try to be clever,and will probably live to regret it in govt): look at the above.
Our democracy would be far better off without this crap. The public is barely aware of it, want to get the hell out of the booth by voting 1 – and at least somewhere between 25-50% of voters for any party would choose prefs differently. Given them optional BTL or ATL.
I guess that one promising agenda is dead in the Senate, now everyone’ssucking up to the cross bench.
Fortunately Victoria does have semi-optional BTL – only have to vote 1-5 BTL for a valid vote, which is hardly onerous. Well worth spreading the word about how easy it is to control your own vote in the state.
Kevin – will do. And the “balance of power” in our household may have shifted with more voters coming “online” in recent years to break the eternal deadlock between myself and spouse!
RR – 12. In Tasmania and ACT, major parties nominate more candidates than 3 because casual vacancies are filled by countback. Gives voters real choice over factions and saves parties from their pre-selection mistakes. See this Conversation on the Hare-Clark system http://buff.ly/1lskgnt
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/corporate-donors-look-to-victorian-labor-as-polls-point-to-a-daniel-andrews-win/story-e6frg6n6-1227125007056
[Corporate donors look to Victorian Labor as polls point to a Daniel Andrews win
THE AUSTRALIAN NOVEMBER 17, 2014 12:00AM
Rick Wallace Journalist Melbourne
John Ferguson Victorian Political Editor Melbourne
THE Victorian ALP has raised more money in the past week than during its entire term in opposition as corporate donations flood in and published opinion polls point to a Labor win.
Labor is planning to plough the proceeds back into the campaign as the major parties ramp up their negative advertising in the race to the November 29 election.
The late surge in cash, however, comes after a sustained and successful period of fundraising by the Liberal Party, with many hundreds of thousands of dollars flowing into its coffers after a recent fundraiser headlined by Tony Abbott.
A senior ALP source told The Australian that, in the wake of a string of bad polls for the Napthine government, corporate donors were contemplating a Labor win. “We have had more donations come in than we have had in the last three years,’’ one ALP source said. “We were not getting anything like this in 2010. All of a sudden everyone is knocking on the door.”
Labor leader Daniel Andrews’s vow to tear up the contracts for the East West Link toll road project — and government efforts to link him to the militant building union — were thought to be holding back corporate support.
The parties are reluctant to discuss budgets, but it is understood the Coalition will spend at least $10 million on the campaign, with $6m on television ads. The ALP is expected to spend $7m and channel about $4m of that into TV ads.
Another source backed the claims of a flood of corporate donations to the ALP, saying companies that had banked on a two-term Coalition government were beginning to hedge their bets.
………………
While Victorian Liberal stalwarts refuse to count Dr Napthine out, and the contest still has two weeks to run, some federal Liberals have effectively written off the Victorian government and moved to inoculate the Abbott government from any fallout.
Federal Liberal MPs told The Australian that Dr Napthine had run a “weak” campaign and moved to head off attempts by the state party to pin the blame, in the event of a defeat, on the Prime Minister’s relatively poor standing in the state.]
Also in Tas you need to vote 1-5 for a valid vote (any omission or duplication in that range is informal), so a party that fails to run five loses votes if its voters forget to preference someone else. Running five also makes it simple if voters just want to vote for one party and stop.
In some cases parties would actually like to just run three but for this issue, to cut down on leakage issues. Indeed a party with three incumbents will sometimes deliberately run two low-profile hacks as support, which works fine at the election in question, but not so well if one of your incumbents later retires and a low-profile hack gets their countback.
+1 to your comment @ 14 kevin. I do hope the ease of voting BTL in Victoria means that the ticket deals have less influence than at federal level. I’ve always voted BTL in victorian elections and don’t usually feel the need to go past 15 numbers.
An alternative to Local Jobs winning in western Victoria is the Greens will get across the line with PUP, SEX and animal justice. That minor block might get to 4%, so greens would need 12.6, I believe they will run a few % bellow the state average. Would need a Morgan/ipsos type result for that to happen.
20
On the new boundaries, the Greens got 1.4% of the vote less in Western Victoria than statewide. If indeed your calculations are correct and the Greens need 12.6% to win, then they would need only about 14% of the vote statewide rather than 18%. The Greens got 14.64% in the Senate in Victoria in 2010.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/10/victorian-redistribution-legislative-council-estimates.html#more
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2010resultsummary.html
http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-15508-VIC.htm
The Voice for the West also seems to be on the receiving end of many preferences in Northern and Western Metropolitan and Western Victoria seats.
Predicting these things is a bit of a mugs’ game but still here goes…
Fifth seat in WV certainly looks like one of the lotteries.
Family First, Country Alliance, Rise Up, People Power, LDP, Shooters, DLP and Local Jobs all do a tight swap. If there is ~0.4 quota between them then whoever emerges with the micro-right vote has a good shot at going past one of and then both of Coalition and ALP to the fifth spot leaving Greens with the unfinished quota. Local Jobs look good if they can stay ahead of FF and DLP early in the count, otherwise DLP or Country Alliance seem well placed.
If there is not, the Coalition should sweep most of the micro vote leaving Coalition, ALP and Greens late in the count. This would then come down to the order of exclusion, but given, in this scenario, the Coalition has stayed ahead of and then got the micro-right vote, and Greens with PUP and left vote will probably also be at least ~0.7 this would probably lead to ALP exclusion electing Greens.
Otherwise:
I’m going to say 3 Coalition 2 ALP in Eastern Vic and Eastern Metro and 3 ALP 2 Coalition in SE Metro.
3 Coalition 1 ALP 1 Green in Southern Metro and 3 ALP 1 Coalition 1 Green in Western Metro look less certain, with the fifth seat in each a potential ALP/Coalition contest, but still probable.
The left will certainly pick up a seat in Northern Metro. Sex and Greens have a shot, but with a rising ALP vote, the third ALP candidate should start with a partial quota of ~0.7 and that will be tough to chase down, so 3 ALP 1 Coalition 1 Green most likely.
That leaves Northern Vic with the other fifth seat raffle, although it seems assured to be a Coalition/micro-right contest, but some chance of Greens snatching the ALPs second if there’s enough of a tree-change.
For the sake of the calculation I’ll give the 5th seat in NV and WV to CA, noting that in fact these two seats could go (just about) anywhere.
That gives my prediction:
ALP: 18
Coalition: 17
Green: 3
CA: 2
[THE Victorian ALP has raised more money in the past week than during its entire term in opposition as corporate donations flood in and published opinion polls point to a Labor win.]
Fat lady warming up.
[Fortunately Victoria does have semi-optional BTL – only have to vote 1-5 BTL for a valid vote, which is hardly onerous. Well worth spreading the word about how easy it is to control your own vote in the state.]
thanks KB – that is not widely advertised, no.
24
The redistribution has made a Coalition loss in Eastern Metro more possible through the inclusion of ALP held Ivanhoe in the region. In 2006 the Greens were beaten by the Liberals for the final seat by about 1.5% or less and the redistribution has added 1.41%.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/files/state2006EasternMetropolitanRegionDistributions.xls
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/10/victorian-redistribution-legislative-council-estimates.html#more
The redistribution has also increased the left vote in Northern Metro. Had the redistribution been conducted before the 2010 election it is likely that the Coalition would not have won a majority and they would have had more trouble getting things legislated during the term.
http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/2701293/abortion-views-cause-coalition-split-in-buninyong/
[Abortion views cause Coalition split in Buninyong
By MATTHEW DIXON
Nov. 17, 2014, 12:03 p.m.
THE marginal seat of Buninyong has been thrown into turmoil over a Coalition split on abortion views.
The Courier can reveal Nationals candidate Sonia Smith will not preference Ben Taylor on how to vote cards which could be the difference in what is one of the closest election battles in the state.
Ms Smith said she felt “sick” after an Australian Christian Lobby candidates forum on Friday night in which she felt Liberal candidate Ben Taylor revealed views to roll back abortion laws.
She said Mr Taylor had not clearly revealed his views on this issue, focusing on sticking to party lines on other topics.
“He has just been a salesman for the party,” she said.
“These views need to be brought to light.
“For me it was very disturbing, even though it was a Christian view, but not everyone agrees with that view.”
The how to vote cards will not preference Mr Taylor in the number two spot.
Ms Smith said she would leave it up to voters to decide who to preference and would not commit to saying voters should preference Labor over Mr Taylor.
I can’t live with myself, that we are going to put someone in who is going to be as divisive on that issue,” she said.
“I am seeking to win I should make that point.
“It is a serious issue, he should be running for Family First.” ]
28
That is a bit of a cat among the pigeons. Let us see whether this gets overruled buy the Nat`s HQ.
TtFaB@27
In 2010 the Libs, FF and DLP had 3.3 quotas between them on the new boundaries. There’d have to be a swing of over 6% to challenge that spot. It’s certainly possible but I’d rate that as rather less likely than more.
30
Using the 2010 Senate result, using the less favourable to the left old boundaries, would likely have given a 2-2-1 result, as opposed to the 3-2 result the occurred, in Eastern Metro.
The Buninyong thing is hilarious. Any number of so-called Liberals belong in Family First based on their views on abortion and similar issues.
There’s a profile of Smith here: http://www.unipollwatch.org.au/sonia-smith-nationals-buninyong/
She comes across as more like Cathy McGowan than a typical Nat.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/11/predicted-legislative-council-outcome-based-on-senate-results.html#more
[30
Using the 2010 Senate result, using the less favourable to the left old boundaries, would likely have given a 2-2-1 result, as opposed to the 3-2 result the occurred, in Eastern Metro.]
I’m not sure what the point is here except to demonstrate that at least some people vote differently between federal and state elections.
Cathy McGowan IS basically a Nat.
Its good to splash social media with this message or equivalent over the next fortnight. Email your friends!
Lets undermine all these BS registered prefs as much as possible.
[Victorians: be advised that unlike the Australian Senate, the Victorian Legislative Council (upper house) permits optional preferential voting below the line. To cast a valid vote you only need to number five squares — you can number more if you want. This means YOU control where your preferences go – not the parties.]
Me on the preferences situation (in The Guardian, if you please).
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/victorian-election-the-countdown/2014/nov/17/victorian-election-preferences-perversity-rules-battle-for-upper-house
37
All good except where you say that the parties that the Greens put ahead of the ALP are likely to have been eliminated before the Greens. This is only true in 6 of the 8 regions. In Southern Metro the Greens could have a small surplus, after the election of their MLC, that could easily go to parties preferenced ahead of the ALP. In Northern Metro the Greens will have a surplus, after the election of their MLC, that may be picked up by minor parties if they pass the Green surplus.
The Green surplus and consequent available seat, is presumably one of the reasons that Northern Metro has so many candidates. It has 20 groups plus an ungrouped column. Does anybody know if that means that the Northern Metro ballot paper is a double-decker?
The Northern Metro ballot paper is double decked with two rows of GTV boxes, a black line, then two rows of candidates.
40
Thank-you. The first double-decker outside NSW and SA.
40
ATL boxes separated from the BTL boxes. Interesting. Not good for groups of independents as it moves their easiest voting method further away from their name (not having their name next to their ATL box hurts, and apparently cost Pauline Hanson a seat in the NSW LC in 2011).
I believe they keep the ATL and BTL boxes together in NSW. Which do they do in SA?
No. In both SA and NSW, when they have used double or triple decking, there are multiple lines of group boxes, then a black line, then multiple candidate lines.
It’s confusing, but then so is requiring a magnifying glass to read the ballot paper.
43
No wonder Pauline Hanson lost because enough people did not understand how to vote for her.
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/9400
Hanson ran after the abolition of group ticket votes, though the new form of above the line voting meant the boxes were still there. Her problem was that she had a box with no label above the line. and her name then appeared at the top of the list below the line. A lot of people voted ‘1’ below the line for her which was an informal vote. She lost a lot of votes that way in 2011, but probably not enough to defeat her.
45
It is the dislocation of ATL boxes with BTL boxes plus the lack of a name next to the ATL boxes of non-party candidates that is what really cost her and Hatton. Harradine (for decades) and Xenophon (2007) did not have a problem with voters not being able to find their box although they were more prominent and probably had more advertising (and it went further in the smaller advertising markets), However Xenophon has switched to having a party with his name on it and that (combined with disillusionment with the major parties) nearly got his party the largest number of Senators elected in SA in 2013 If it was not for his running mate being preferenced low by the ALP and Greens, that would have happened).
If the BTL 1 only votes were not enough to elect Hanson, there probably would have been enough voters who could not find her ATL box and then voted for someone else or otherwise informal to have got her into the NSW LC for eight years (and also a pension because the NSW and Commonwealth Parliaments have an agreement to allow their members to add their time in each parliament together for pension calculation).
With first 5 OPV in the upper house, I’m wondering if there is going to be a chance of unintended voting with two lines?
e.g. People who intend to number all the boxes, but only number the top “deck” but not the bottom, or some other combination.
Or more to the point, say a right-leaning voter only intending to number the boxes with right-wing parties but may miss out certain parties, especially if say, the Libs are close to the edge of the ballot paper.
Could someone let me know what was all the Green’s outcry about last week or so, where ALP were putting others higher on preference tickers over them? Looking at this I think the Greens are doing exactly the same thing and in number of regions are putting ALP lower on the ticket than the ALP does for the Greens.
I might have misheard/misread something, and no such thing occurred though 🙂
tickers=tickets