Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Newspoll comes in above the trend for Labor for a second fortnight in a row, giving the government its worst result in over three months.

James J relates that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is bad news for the government, showing Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred (up from an already above-trend 53-47 last time) from primary votes of 38% Coalition (steady), 36% Labor (up two) and 13% Greens (down one). Tony Abbott is down one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and 52%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 37% and down one to 45%. Preferred prime minister is at 39-38 in favour of Abbott, unchanged on last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1175.

UPDATE: Essential Research bucks the trend a little to record the Coalition up a point to 40% and Labor down one by 38%, with Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48. The Greens are up a point to 10%, with Palmer United steady at 4%. Further questions found strong opposition to deregulation of university fees (53% disapprove, 22% approve), support for the NDIS being funded by a higher Medicare levy (44% approve, 34% disapprove), and a willingness to pay a higher GST if used to fund health (56%) or pensions (44%). There was also a very strong view that climate change will lead to a higher incidence of bushfires and severe weather events in the coming years.

Also today, Fairfax offered a further tranche of its Ipsos poll finding Julie Bishop level with Tony Abbott on 20% as preferred Liberal leader, but with Malcolm Turnbull still well ahead of both on 35%. For Labor leader, Bill Shorten on 30% had competition from Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek on 18% apiece.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

921 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The 51-49 result for the 20/9 Newspoll actually can’t be reached in that simple manner (best case is 50.32) based on national preference flows – so something definitely is going on behind the scenes.

  2. Pay cut for troops

    Apparently, (other blog site) its all the fault of Labor for letting so many “foreign refos and their kids” into Australia

  3. @ guytaur, 53

    I’d say the Ipsos is so low for Labor because it was taken before the “Bowser Bandit” headline – it makes sense given the slight trend to the Coalition noticed in the polls before it.

    Essential, with its bias to stability, likely hadn’t felt the full force of that trend, so it was still high for Labor and now that the Bowser Bandit headline has hit Voterland, the Morgan and Newspoll are showing the effect.

    There’s also the possibility that Ipsos has a pro-Coalition house effect – comparing it to Nielsen is probably pointless.

  4. AussieAchmed@45

    An ETS, NBN, NDIS plus proper funding for education and health.

    I’m being lazy, but why couldn’t a MRRT be developed using the PRRT legislation as a base? Even the Liberals couldn’t argue against that …surely…after all the years they have supported the PRRT.

    (being lazy, it takes me forever to do stuff on the computer, right shoulder all stitched up so trying to do all left handed only.)

    What happened to your shoulder? 😮

  5. On the polling. Think we are too far out from an election to place too much confidence in the projected outcome these figures show

  6. pedant@47

    Bemused @ 33: I find suggestions that the NSW ALP caucus members pre-2011 didn’t know about the true character of Messrs Obeid and McDonald about as plausible as the claims from residents of Munich in 1945 that they had no idea what was happening in that camp down the road.

    Godwins Law?

  7. @ AussieAchmed, 58

    Of course, but it’s nonetheless a very good position for Labor to be in at this point of the term.

  8. The Coalition has done an excellent job of reminding everyone why they were so mad after the Budget in the last two weeks.

    Abbott’s Big Man About Planet act had to cool off eventually. He might get a G20 bounce but after that, it really will be back to the economy.

  9. Since the May Budget the federal ipolls have suggested the ALP have consistently been between three and eight per cent ahead of the LNP.. Even the classic national security/war card hasn’t affected this trend. Early days, but this is beginning to look like a one term Tony. Just like the Bailleu/Nathine Governments. It will be a slow burn, but day by day, week by week we are seeing the steady implosion of the Abbott hegemony.

  10. AussieAchmed@62

    #A57 – partly old age, partly injuries when younger and partly thinking I could still do what I did 40 years ago.

    😀 I know the feeling.
    I had a frozen shoulder a couple of years ago. Fortunately no surgery, just a big needle.

  11. #60 – yep.

    Labor will need to start election advertising 12+ months out from the election to ensure they list all the Liberal lies, broken promises and back flips.

  12. dendrite@40

    The highest possible ALP 2PP I got get from this poll is 53.52% (using the preference flows given by William @17), from primaries of LNP 37.5, ALP 36.5, GRN 13.5 and OTH 12.5.

    On my formula I can get to 53.68. I add 0.14 to Labor to offset Coalition leakage from three-cornered contests. So we don’t need to resort to odd stuff like state breakdowns or unpublished Others breakdowns to convincingly get it to 54, but the pattern of this happening so often lately is the issue.

    I discussed Newspoll rounding voodoo at length in an very wonky article on my site a few weeks back:

    kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/wonk-central-what-do-we-do-with-poll.html

    A possible scenario is they might be allowing voters to explicitly report that they intend voting Independent. Voters will over-report intending to vote indie if given any chance to do so. They don’t seem to over-report if given an option like “some other minor party or independent” though.

  13. Rossmore

    [Early days, but this is beginning to look like a one term Tony. Just like the Bailleu/Nathine Governments. It will be a slow burn, but day by day, week by week we are seeing the steady implosion of the Abbott hegemony.]

    I hope you are right but there is much time to run before the Commonwealth Elections, the LNP is stupid in policy and substantial ways but not in the politically cunning area; the Labour Movement has for decades refused to have any public media and can never understand how it fails to get a message across, and the ALP has a decade long track record of political stupidy (e.g Rudd/Gillard fiasco).

    I am an utopian pessimist. 🙂

  14. key hole surgery entry in 4 different places. one ligament cut and no longer attached due to infection…end of collar bones filed off to smooth it and some other bits cut and spliced. something about “removing” bruscitas”

  15. guytaur@53

    Newspoll 54-46; Morgan 53.5-46.5; Essential 53-47. Ipsos 51-49.

    Ipsos low due to margin of error?

    Or could be: Morgan skewing to Labor as usual, Essential off on a tangent as usual, Newspoll bouncy as usual. First Ipsos is looking under trend now though.

  16. AS

    Thanks. That makes more sense than just margin of error. So a pretty consistent result we can take to be as certain as polling gets

  17. Well I finally got around to doing the Vote Compass tonight.

    It brought tears to my eyes… came closer to the LOONs than the ALP. 😮 !!!!

    Supposedly I agree with the LOONs 85% and ALP 72%. But it is comforting I only agree with the Libs 39%.

    Some of the questions were difficult to answer like the one about possession of marijuana. I regard someone with a commercially trafficable quantity as being rather different to some stupid kid caught with enough for personal use. So how was I to answer? I ended up taking a mid point which didn’t really reflect my position.

  18. @ bemused, 72

    Perhaps the Greens aren’t as loony as you think they are? They actually do have a very impressive set of policies on big issues that the other majors are curiously silent on (housing affordability!).

  19. AussieAchmed@68

    key hole surgery entry in 4 different places. one ligament cut and no longer attached due to infection…end of collar bones filed off to smooth it and some other bits cut and spliced. something about “removing” bruscitas”

    OUCH!!!

    My worst was a knee which has had 2 operations. First was the old way with a big cut to remove a torn cartilage and second was keyhole to clean up the mess about 20 years later.

  20. This is a tasty poll result. Is the Coalition’s edge over Labor on the primary vote (just two points) the smallest it has been in any Newspoll since the election? Or among the best two or three Newspoll results for Labor?

    I think there is more bad publicity in the pipeline for the government. Why did they think that keeping climate change off the agenda for the G20 summit would be to their advantage? The world’s media will be here and they will make a big deal about the omission.

    The agenda can’t keep the leaders and negotiating teams from discussing the issue anyway. A lot of the value of these meetings is realized on the sidelines of the formal events. Many of the other 19 nations will discuss climate change during this summit whether the Australian Government likes it or not.

    Hosting a major global meeting is normally good for the host leader’s image but I think this one will highlight to the Australian public that their leader is not up to speed on one of the most critical problems requiring global cooperation.

  21. Arrnea Stormbringer@74

    @ bemused, 72

    Perhaps the Greens aren’t as loony as you think they are? They actually do have a very impressive set of policies on big issues that the other majors are curiously silent on (housing affordability!).

    Policies to have any meaning must be realistic and achievable.

    They are generally LOONy.

  22. William,

    I’m willing to put it down to the Greens rise in primaries being fed essentially by Labor voters.

    But is Newspoll’s methodology evolving to reflect this?

  23. briefly@81

    72
    bemused

    Well I finally got around to doing the Vote Compass tonight.


    I was spot-on Labor…came as no surprise

    I only seemed to agree with the LOONs rather than Labor on Employment and Environment. To my horror I found myself agreeing with the Libs on teachers being paid for performance.

  24. Nicholas@78

    This is a tasty poll result. Is the Coalition’s edge over Labor on the primary vote (just two points) the smallest it has been in any Newspoll since the election? Or among the best two or three Newspoll results for Labor?

    There have been seven better Coalition-Labor primary figures from Labor’s perspective: a tie in February and a run of six in a row through May-July that included some where Labor had a 2-point primary lead.

  25. Well I finally got around to doing the Vote Compass tonight.

    It brought tears to my eyes… came closer to the LOONs than the ALP. 😮 !!!!

    Supposedly I agree with the LOONs 85% and ALP 72%. But it is comforting I only agree with the Libs 39%.

    There is a latent Green in most Labor voters. Take the Labor policy and make it more elegant, more effective, more bold, and more just and you invariably get the Green policy!

    Labor see things that are and ask ‘Why?’; Greens see things that never were and ask, “Why not?’

    This Vote Compass result does you great credit. 😉

  26. [A possible scenario is they might be allowing voters to explicitly report that they intend voting Independent. Voters will over-report intending to vote indie if given any chance to do so. They don’t seem to over-report if given an option like “some other minor party or independent” though.]

    Well I caant say for sure,but I was VIC state election Newspolled the other day and no such opportunities presented themself.

  27. lefty e@88

    A possible scenario is they might be allowing voters to explicitly report that they intend voting Independent. Voters will over-report intending to vote indie if given any chance to do so. They don’t seem to over-report if given an option like “some other minor party or independent” though.


    Well I caant say for sure,but I was VIC state election Newspolled the other day and no such opportunities presented themself.

    Thankyou. If it is an issue at all, it might be so only for someone who indicates Other. (If you were one of those then I can rule that theory out!)

  28. Roundups aside, briliant poll result.

    This’ll put the wind up them good.

    Why the swing to ALP? My 2c worth is PUP proving they’re pussies. This makes the budget a whole new kettle of fish for Bazz & Shazz McPunter.

  29. [@vanOnselenP: DONT PANIC! RT @GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1) #auspol]

    Wise words from PVO.

    Out in the provinces the jury is still out, though the regular Abbott Brainfarts ™ are starting to become the butt of jokes in conversation. People are laughing at the Lying Friar.

  30. Nicholas@87


    There is a latent Green in most Labor voters. Take the Labor policy and make it more elegant, more effective, more bold, and more just and you invariably get the Green policy!

    Labor see things that are and ask ‘Why?’; Greens see things that never were and ask, “Why not?’

    This Vote Compass result does you great credit.

    More LOON delusion!

    Being a party that seriously competes for office so it can actually do something, Labor restrains some of its members ambit claims.

    LOONs simply follow the ‘ethic of good intentions’ and take no responsibility for anything.

  31. AFAICR It was ALP/ LNP and “other” for the non-voting attitudinal/ strongest on policy area Qs KB.

    GRNs only showed up on the voting Qs. I was impressed that they asked those about 3 times in the interview,and pressed the pollee on prefs too.

    I got a bit bored saying ‘other’ a few times and went for Andrews on some.

  32. [85
    bemused

    briefly@81

    72
    bemused

    Well I finally got around to doing the Vote Compass tonight.

    I was spot-on Labor…came as no surprise

    I only seemed to agree with the LOONs rather than Labor on Employment and Environment. To my horror I found myself agreeing with the Libs on teachers being paid for performance.]

    I read the question as code for “Should we sack the public school system?” and answered accordingly.

    [87
    Nicholas

    Labor see things that are and ask ‘Why?’; Greens see things that never were and ask, “Why not?”]

    More self-flattery….”Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the cheapest of them all?

  33. Bemused

    I took that Voting Compass test last year for the Federal election.

    Like you I came closer to the Greens than Labor. From memory the result was 82 Greens and 76 Labor.

    I wasn’t disappointed or shocked by that, I was more disappointed and shocked by Labor not being closer to me.

    Anyway, as I’ve always lived in electorates with strong ALP candidates (Ric Charlesworth, Stephen Smith, Albo and Allanah McTiernan) I’ve always voted for them.

    In the WA Senate re-election this year, I would’ve put ALP first, Greens second, however the bonehead fvcking stupid decision to put Joe Bullock at the top of the ticket saw Scott Ludlam get my #1 vote.

    Oh and BTW, you constantly referring to the Greens as “loons” makes you look like Centre. Just sayin’.

  34. Dan Gulberry@96


    Oh and BTW, you constantly referring to the Greens as “loons” makes you look like Centre. Just sayin’.

    Yes, now that Centre has gone, someone has to keep the LOONs in their place. 😉

  35. Why else?

    Some thoughts:
    – enduring Hunt celebrate his utterly crapulent direct action victory
    – the fantasy of post-CO2 tax price falls is over
    – its all been Syria,nobody knows what the hell we’re doing in Iraq
    – Abbott looked a right tosser over the Shirtfront episode “you bet you are! Or I am, or something…”
    – Punters realising PUP wont help you.
    – The education policy is a dog and must be settling in out there as people wake up to PUP’s uselessness
    – GST – my that was a smart move. The only worse part was Abbott pretending he’s against cheap anti-tax campaigns. LOL!

  36. [95
    bemused

    briefly @ 94

    I took that education question at face value.

    I have no problem with rewarding performance.]

    Nor do I….but the LNP use the polemics to call for further privatisation in education…at least, that’s how it looks to me

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