BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

Weak polling for the Coalition from Newspoll and Essential Research reverses the recent poll trend, and puts Labor back into a winning position on the BludgerTrack seat projection.

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor this week following moves away from the Coalition in both Newspoll and Essential Research – although not Roy Morgan, which was little changed on what for it was an unusually strong result for the Coalition a fortnight ago. Newspoll in particular was a surprise packet, but it should be noted that Labor once again appeared to get the better of rounding on its two-party result. If a simple application of 2013 election flows is made to Newspoll’s rounded primary vote numbers, the result that comes out is 52-48 rather than 53-47. Even so, Newspoll has driven a shift of 1.0% on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred and caused six seats to flip on the seat projection – two in New South Wales, and one each in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

I say “moves away from the Coalition” rather than “moves towards Labor” advisedly, because this particular crop of polling actually found a degree of softness for both major parties. Both are down on the primary vote, the balance being absorbed by the Greens and especially “others”. The “others” result from Essential this week was at an equal high since it began reporting Palmer United separately last November. Newspoll’s didn’t change, but it was high in absolute terms – something it’s been making a habit of lately, as Kevin Bonham explains.

The other manifestation of collective major party weakness came from Newspoll’s leadership ratings, which have caused fairly substantial shifts to the relevant BludgerTrack readings. The uptick to Tony Abbott that was showing up in recent weeks has well and truly been blunted, and a weak result for Bill Shorten has also caused his upward trend towards parity on net approval to disappear. With both leaders down on net satisfaction to about the same degree compared with last week, there is little change this week on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,018 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

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  1. [You could do some of those kooky US Congress type electorates so that every seat was based in the city but had a corridor snaking out to encompass a part of the rural population.]

    Well we kinda do something like that anyway. Obviously not in the extreme of the US but after each election, seat boundaries are moved to try and create a notional result that is more reflective of the 2PP, so expect quite a bit of gerrymandering in some of the marginal seats to make them swallow more conservative booths (my tip is to watch Newland and Light as they become less suburban and more rural)

  2. Is there group of people in Australia politics more self-righteous and smug as the Greens?

    People who level this charge with no effort to measure the self-righteousness of their target compared with that of other parties are, in my view, venting their frustration about the shame and disappointment they feel about their own party.

    If you want Labor to be a party which surpasses the Greens’ practice of ethics, courage and democracy, support John Faulkner, a noble soul and an accomplished parliamentarian who wants to spur his party to greater things.

    John Faulkner prods and pokes his party to be its best self. He is verballed and attacked for his pains. On a much smaller scale I know how he feels.

  4. Is there group of people in Australia politics more self-righteous and smug as the Greens?

    With the reply including:

    the Greens’ practice of ethics, courage and democracy

    So, to the OP: apparently not.

  5. [This is pretty funny considering all the Greens supporters in here lecturing the rest of us about what terrible people we are for not supporting their ideals 100%.]

    With respect, that’s rubbish. Nicolas’s postings are a little on the enthusiastic side but “all the Greens supporters” – people like me, Guytaur, Fran, Lefty E, Astrobleme – all come and make political arguments for positions we think are better, just as ALP supporters argue for positions they think are better, and do so while ignoring a non-stop stream of ‘terrible’ name-calling – loon, sanctimonious, naive, traitorous etc etc.

  6. This is amusing:

    [Is there group of people in Australia politics more self-righteous and smug as the Greens?]

    As I follow Scottish poliics which traditionally is a Labour stronghold, the “Scottish” Labour Party (SLAB) has the same hatred for the SNP as ALP supporters have for the Greens here.

    The sNP has policies that are the same as SLAB had 20 years ago but for some reason SLAB would prefer the Tories than the SNP to win.

    In other words SLAB believes its MP’s careers are more imporatnt than the people of Scotland.

    I wonder whether ALP supporters think their party MP’s performance is more important than equality for Australian people.

    I hope not.

  9. Jesus! Who was the f*ckwit who rose to the bait of attempting to derail a sensible and mature discussion about the Victorian election with bullshit personality crap about Labor v Greens?

    And more to the point, shame on all those who mindlessly rose to the bait.

  12. In light of fhe case being before the courts today, this piece by M Pascoe last month is worth reposting

    [Dodgy operators around the nation should rejoice in the news that Freya Newman has pleaded guilty to accessing restricted data and faces the possibility of a couple of years in prison.
    What a relief that a would-be whistleblower apparently had no choice but to go down, that the law puts private property rights ahead of political transparency.
    Let that be a warning to you all.
    Not that I would suggest for a moment that there was anything dodgy about the Whitehouse Design Institute giving a $60,000 scholarship to the then-opposition leader’s daughter.]

    http://m.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/free-freya-because-it-vibes-all-wrong-20140918-10izv1.html

  13. Thank you, confessions. The “Judean People’s Front v. People’s Front of Judea” stuff on here is getting a bit dull. Yes, different parties and, at election time, we’re going to try to beat each other but there are more important fish to fry.

  14. Well I don’t have much more to add unless you want to hear me whinge about how every time I’ve nearly forgotten about Fiona Richardson she sends some irritating communication in the mail… One of her tactics is to send a letter a week after rates notices go out promising that a Labor government will save us from these terrible Labor councils…

    No danger of losing though.

  15. Nicholas
    [People who level this charge with no effort to measure the self-righteousness of their target compared with that of other parties are, in my view, venting their frustration about the shame and disappointment they feel about their own party.]
    I see you are so concerned about the Labor party that you feel you need to phrase things in such a way that is guaranteed to have people ignore your points.

    I’ll give you a little hint. Telling people what they feel is not in the least bit helpful.

    You are raising all the flags that concern trolls raise. Your message may be fine, but perhaps you should reconsider your methods.

  17. Thank you, confessions. The “Judean People’s Front v. People’s Front of Judea” stuff on here is getting a bit dull. Yes, different

    Agree.

    I caught ‘The Life of Brian’ on TV some weeks back. Still works after 35 years (apart from that silly segment with the spaceship).

  18. Carey M:

    I have my own views about the Greens (and other parties ftm), and nothing I read posted here by other commenters is likely to influence my views.

    I dare say the same goes for Green, Liberal and other voters, making the effort put into changing people’s minds by some (of whatever side of the equation they come from), pointless in the extreme.

  23. I just gave Abbott an outstanding rating. That poll was so skewed someone had to besides it won’t even cause a ripple on that poll 🙂

  25. On a different note, I voted in local council elections today (doesn’t really interest me that much, to be honest, but I still always vote and, also, one of the candidates in my ward is a decent bloke and got my vote.)

    The Mayor is returned unopposed which, in my view, is never a good thing (it shows a lack of interest, not overwhelming support for the incumbent.)

    Anyway, the race is going to be decided by a few hundred people and will probably favour incumbents. Adelaide metropolitan councils are a bit silly and seem to be more a collection of local busy-bodies and NIMBYs than a serious level of government.

    I wonder how that can be fixed? More devolution? Compulsory voting? Council merging? I don’t know!

  27. Martin B:

    😀

    LOL although I’m still keen to discuss this whole incumbency thing. I reckon there’s more to it than what you’ve said, but I’m too tired to get into it at this point.

  30. I think people’s minds/attitudes are made far harder to change by the frequently counterproductive actions of those trying to effect change :P.

  31. [ Not that I would suggest for a moment that there was anything dodgy about the Whitehouse Design Institute giving a $60,000 scholarship to the then-opposition leader’s daughter
    ]

    It looks dodgy as all getout. Imagine if it were a Labor PM. Ms Newman would be lauded as a heroine in the Murdochracy and talkback.

  32. [I wonder how that can be fixed? More devolution? Compulsory voting? Council merging? I don’t know!]

    Here in WA council elections are not compulsory to vote at. I’ve often said they should be. Also, it seems local govt candidates don’t have to identify whether they are aligned to a particular political party. Again, I’ve said they should be required to reveal this publicly.

    It seems to me however, that nowhere in Australia gets decent LGA candidates, even if their electoral laws require the above. Perhaps it’s a pay thing?

  33. victoria@669

    And on another matter discussed at length here in recent times, the coronial inquest is currently underway and the police have given evidence

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/refusal-to-remand-luke-battys-father-frustrated-police-officers-inquest-hears-20141023-11ag09.html

    As is usual with such inquests, lawyers representing DHS and other govt agencies appear to have behaved disgracefully in trying to make Rosie Batty responsible for all that happened, to cover up their own failings.

  36. [It seems to me however, that nowhere in Australia gets decent LGA candidates, even if their electoral laws require the above. Perhaps it’s a pay thing?]

    Hmmm

    I mean there’s occasionally a good Mayor here or there (Stephen Yarwood being an example who springs to mind) but yeah, it seems like a ground for visionless, myopic nobodies or a springboard for people who are building up a profile to get preselection for parliament (which seems to be what a lot of metropolitan mayors and councillors are doing nowadays)

  37. Carey M:

    On council mergers, this is a true story. Here in WA, the Barnett govt has embarked on a campaign to merge metro LGAs. The Nats are opposed, but the Nats have ensured that this same campaign hasn’t leaked to rural areas.

    True story. A Facebook friend recently moved to some obscure Wheatbelt town to work for the Shire. I kid you not that Shire has more councillors than actual paid staff (there are 12 councillors btw), and according to my friend council meetings routinely go for hours and hours, rather than the 45mins it would take to work through business!

    I can get the forced council mergers are controversial, but FFS, my friend’s council is out of control!

  38. [Not that I would suggest for a moment that there was anything dodgy about the Whitehouse Design Institute giving a $60,000 scholarship to the then-opposition leader’s daughter ]

    Certainly not. And the person who first thought such a thing has been locked up!

    #imsureileftaustraliasomewhereroundherebutnowicantfindit

  40. Greens are in it to win it Bemused.

    As you will recall, the ‘impotent but pure’ line was for the ALP (VIC) left, and to them it largely still applies: trapped in a right-wing party for 30% of the baubles and positions, losing forever!

  41. Greens supporters: don’t hijack Whitlam like that. It’s one thing to celebrate him but saying he would be a Green is insensitive and disrespectful. The man, a life-long Labor supporter, just died. It’s not edgy or controversial. Whitlam means a lot to Labor. Don’t be dicks.

    Anyway, I don’t mean to carry on with the Labor v. Greens thing but I thought that did warrant comment.

  44. Confessions

    I live in Vincent, and I think my Council is quite good. First Council I have known to be good. I am pretty angry at Barnett.

    What is his problem, anyway? He’s such a grumble-bum, he doesn’t even bother pretending to care anymore.

  45. lefty e@690

    Greens are in it to win it Bemused.

    As you will recall, the ‘impotent but pure’ line was for the ALP (VIC) left, and to them it largely still applies: trapped in a right-wing party for 30% of the baubles and positions, losing forever!

    Yes, it was directed at the old Hartley/Crawford Vic Left who were just as loony as the Greens. Labor could never win while burdened by such looniness in Victoria and I have no doubt Whitlam would have seen the Greens as exactly the same sort of impediment.

    The Left in Victoria these days is much more pragmatic and interested in winning elections so they can do something. They can work with others in the party.

  46. DN

    [I’ll give you a little hint. Telling people what they feel is not in the least bit helpful.]

    I’m going to raise two kinds of objection to that

    1. tu quoque — when someone starts off claiming another is ‘sanctimonious’, ‘self-righteous’, ‘smug’ or similar, they declare something about the provenance of the claims of others in their states of mind. They declare that debate apt.

    2. While one can never be certain of the states of mind of others, the tendency of people accused of doing something of doubtful integrity to deflect by pointing at others or seeking to cast others as imposing unreasonable standards is well attested. One sees this in the playground and classroom on most days. The ALP has been doing this for years and it didn’t begin when The Greens formed a party. That much reiterated assertion of Whitlam’s that ‘only the impotent are pure’ to the Victorian Socialist Left in 1967 was an early exemplar. It appears here on a regular basis in one form or another, uttered by folk who can’t entirely rid themselves of the idea that we Greens really are their better selves. That’s also why some reacted so viscerally to that poster celebrating Gough’s introduction of free tertiary education with a Green logo at the bottom.

    So the inference that the charges of ‘smugness’ ‘sanctimony’ ‘purity’ and ‘self-righteousness’ hurled at us by friends of the ALP are mere cant and high-dudgeon spoken to salve their discomfort is strongly recommended, IMO.

  47. Yeah, fair enough. It is stupid all this. FWIW I didnt fancy that GRN meme that started all this hoohaa.

    But …. God I loved Whitlam.

    I would have joined that ALP. In fact I did, but it wasnt like that anymore.

    Just never underestimate how many members of the Green party supporters and members genuinely see him as their political hero.

  48. I have no problem with regions having smaller councils. They’re more isolated from each other (although they don’t necessarily need to be big in representative size.) However, metro councils are a bit archaic, with some representing just a couple of suburbs and there being several representing the same part of the metro area, despite no economic or cultural difference.

    Worse is when one of the councils in an area has a bit more of a conservative bent and you can literally tell where one council area ends and another begins by the fact that one side of the street has modern development (I am talking cultural development here, not just new real estate) and the other looks like it hasn’t been touched since 1991.

  49. [494
    Everything

    Suggesting that the Syrian conflict is due to drought is ridiculous.

    Sure, drought and economic hard times makes people angry and increases the likelihood of violence (including suicide) but I don’t think it makes you cut someone’s head off.]

    On the other hand, the French Revolution can be seen as a food riot that got out of hand. As well, there’s no doubt at all that food shortages and price rises sparked the protests that led to the Arab Spring.

  50. FB –

    So the inference that the charges of ‘smugness’ ‘sanctimony’ ‘purity’ and ‘self-righteousness’ hurled at us by friends of the ALP are mere cant and high-dudgeon spoken to salve their discomfort is strongly recommended, IMO.

    Nonsense.

    Nicholas’ response was the epitome of smugness and self-righteousness. It could have been designed to prove the original contention that you write off as ‘cant’.

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