BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

Very little to report from the world of poll aggregation this week, with Newspoll hanging back another week for next week’s resumption of parliament.

The only new poll this week was from Essential Research, and it recorded next to no change from its established pattern, which means next to no change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. What change there is has caused Labor recover the slightest possible lead on the two-party preferred aggregate, but the seat total and its distribution between the states is entirely unchanged on last week. One point worth noting is the ongoing slide of Palmer United, which can be timed almost exactly to its Senators taking their seats at the start of July, and which has now brought it to its lowest ebb since the election. Essential Research also furnished us with a new seat of leadership ratings this week, the effect of which has been to moderate the upward lurch on Tony Abbott’s net approval rating caused by the recent Morgan phone poll. The overall trend for Abbott remains upward, but Bill Shorten’s rating has also been tracking upwards lightly, albeit more gently. As I explain in Crikey today, this improvement appears to have been driven by men rather than women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,183 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 24 of 24
1 … 23 24

  1. Isn’t Australian politics, and its yappy LNP/ALP followers, so boring, complacent, stupid, immoral and parochial……

    I mean, Australia in the 1890s was the progressive leader of the world.

    Now we have the right wing stupid LNP and the right wing careerist ALP to make sure we are the biggest, nastiest, most anti-intelligent failures…in the world.

  2. I see that no Liberal/National poster has responded to my 1030 on this thread and similare challenges from other Bludgers at other times: promote and defend your principles and positions.

  3. I see New Matilda is now publishing transcripts (some sadly redacted) of Professor Spurr’s correspondence.

    Here is on which caught my eye, read more if you must in the link

    [DATE: Apr 24, 2014
    FROM: Barry Spurr
    TO: Friend, Friend, University colleague,
    SUBJECT: ANOTHER Welcome to Country and performance

    Today, in the wake of yesterday’s performance at Ayer’s Rock, at the parliamentary reception for the royals, there will be a ‘Welcome to Country’ and the post-reception ‘entertainment’ will be by ‘well-known Aboriginal singer, Wingabanga Gumberumbul’. Then, to the National Portrait Gallery where will be unveiled, by the royals, a portrait of – guess who? – Wingabanga Gumberumbul.

    We have thousands of brilliant young Australian musicians, including the wonderful Nicole Car (who would wear her bra under her dress), currently on the brink of an international operatic career. Why aren’t they asked to perform?

    Abbott’s to blame for this. This is his day with them, his reception. He should have put his foot down and said, ‘No more Abos’. But he’s as gutless and hypocritical as the rest of them. No doubt Peta Whatsername said ‘Do it Tony. It makes you look like a sensitive guy’.]

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/10/19/transcripts-partial-works-professor-barry-spurr-poet-racist-misogynist

  5. Steve777@1152

    I see that no Liberal/National poster has responded to my 1030 on this thread and similare challenges from other Bludgers at other times: promote and defend your principles and positions.

    They have no principles and are ashamed of their positions.

    Give up!

  6. Well I have principles and my positions don’t necessarily coincide with many government positions. PB is probably not the best place for me to defend my principles if I should have to defend them.

  7. [I see New Matilda is now publishing transcripts (some sadly redacted) of Professor Spurr’s correspondence.

    Here is on which caught my eye, read more if you must in the link]

    Pfft! It’s just your common or garden variety irony and poetic license. Nothing to see here!

  9. [1151
    swamprat

    Isn’t Australian politics, and its yappy LNP/ALP followers, so boring, complacent, stupid, immoral and parochial……

    I mean, Australia in the 1890s was the progressive leader of the world.]

    A longing for the past is usually something associated with conservative reflexes. Perhaps you need to re-imagine what it is to be “progressive”, itself a term that fell from use in the 1980s, or, perhaps, to be “modern”.

    Abbott styles himself as “conservative”, though he clearly isn’t. He wants to disrupt ad if possible destroy the socio-political settlement that has been in place for the last 70-odd years. He also eschews mainstream thinking on important elements of economic policy, including the environment and the climate. Rather than building “institutions”, he has set out to break them. These are not the acts of a conservative but of a radical.

  13. I don’t know why anyone should feel unable to defend or promote their positions here. Surely you believe you have right, reason and history on your side. So many Liberal posters just repeat the talking points of the day – for example in times past they’d bang on endlessly about boats, as if that were not a third order issue. Or about Craig Thomson, as if that would change anyone’s mind. Yes, he let the team down but however many double massages he may have enjoyed on his union credit card, it’s not going to persuade anyone to install a party that wants to wind back worker bargaining power, wages and conditions. And most who post here are smart enough to know we’re not getting our $550.

  14. I’m happy to have a discussion about issues and positions although at present I am more likely to disagree with rather than agree with LNP policies at the federal level. Having said that I don’t agree everything they have done/are doing is bad for the country.

    So I won’t be defending the current government on either principle or position.

  15. [1132
    Fran Barlow

    Despite the headline, which seems to be an allusion to Arnold Schwarzenegger (with which the girly man phrase is connected), whom Cormann sounds a lot like when speaking, Quiggin does not call for Cormann’s dismissal.

    Meher earlier was right. The boundaries between parody and public discourse are getting very flimsy indeed.

    Quiggin’s substantive point was that the LNP now lacks a single credible figure in their alleged strong suit, economic management.]

    The LNP are trying to re-theme politics. In their construct, the Government are being turned into a warrior caste – into heralds, fighters and pastors in the time of trouble.

    In other productions – from the black-and-white era – politics was about emancipation from want, about economic dignity and, for a while, also about the rejection of fear. There were mini-series in which politics was about adroit management and rationality.

    These days politics could be mistaken for a genre of computer game – a surreal distraction from the everyday, a realm for fantasy, projection and myth-making. Stripped of its “social” context and content, politics is no longer about shared experience and aspirations. It is now a series of permeable, pop-up thrillers in which heroes and villains glide in and out of view. Politics has become the junk mail in our consciousness.

  16. Tony Abbott has turned out to be a Thatcherite as well as, as we all knew, socially conservative. More Family First than, as I had assumed before the election, DLP. So he has and will continue to have the support of the big end of town.

    Some voters consider what’s in it for them and their families when they vote. Others may be voting for some notion of what they think is best for the country or the wider world. Big Money puts a lot of effort into convincing voters that their own interst aligns with those who control the dollars. In some cases they do. Some vote for Big Money because it comes packaged with social conservatism. In some cases it comes packaged with – not exactly racism but maybe ‘the right to be a bigot’. Others vote for Big Money because they hope to join them some day – the aspirationals.

    I’ve always believed in a fair go. I actually think that ‘from each according to their ability, to each according to their need’ is a good principle, if very hard to implement. It would support lifters and discourage leaners. I worked hard, I’m now a self funded retiree/retrenchee, I don’t need subsidies and concessions. Others aren’t doing so well.

    Whatever. Neither side has a mortgage on good or stupidity.

  17. [1166
    Steve777

    Abbott…has and will continue to have the support of the big end of town.]

    The Really Big End of town, though, is opposed to Abbott’s policies on the environment, the economy, investment and education/technology.

    It seems to me the paleo-economy, the mediocre and the obsolete are attracted to the LNP. Those in the frontier economy are appalled by them.

  19. Briefly – interesting. Yes, as far as Climate Change and renewables go, Abbott seems like someone in 1850 opposed to steamships, insisting that sail is the way way of the future.

    Good night all.

  20. [1169
    Steve777

    Briefly – interesting. Yes, as far as Climate Change and renewables go, Abbott seems like someone in 1850 opposed to steamships, insisting that sail is the way way of the future.]

    Abbott deals in archetypes. Maybe that’s how he acquires “knowledge” of the world. It’s not a factual world; it’s a pretend one. He’s not an empiricist, he’s a romantic.

  21. [Despite the headline, which seems to be an allusion to Arnold Schwarzenegger (with which the girly man phrase is connected), whom Cormann sounds a lot like when speaking,]

    Seriously, WTF Liberal focus group thought it was a good idea to actually participate in the mocking of Corrman via Terminator allusion?? The cartoonists have been running that one from the get go FFS.

    Seems to me its still about the Fibs focusing on “selling” and marketing their budget. At some point they are just goign to have to acknowledge that their budget is crap. I suspect the tactic will now be to just live with failure to get stuff through (since the MSM are on side with ignoring this and covering up for them) until the next budget where it will all be shiny and new.

  27. Ipsos is one of the biggest international market research companies. Locally they’re partnered with, or own, I-view, which has been publishing occasional attitudinal results over the past year or so from its online polling. But its polls for Fairfax will be live interview phone polling, which is excellent news.

  28. 1177

    Hopefully they will be up and running a state poll in Victoria soon. The hiatus in polling has caused a reduction in state polling threads.

Comments Page 24 of 24
1 … 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *