The only new poll this week was from Essential Research, and it recorded next to no change from its established pattern, which means next to no change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. What change there is has caused Labor recover the slightest possible lead on the two-party preferred aggregate, but the seat total and its distribution between the states is entirely unchanged on last week. One point worth noting is the ongoing slide of Palmer United, which can be timed almost exactly to its Senators taking their seats at the start of July, and which has now brought it to its lowest ebb since the election. Essential Research also furnished us with a new seat of leadership ratings this week, the effect of which has been to moderate the upward lurch on Tony Abbott’s net approval rating caused by the recent Morgan phone poll. The overall trend for Abbott remains upward, but Bill Shorten’s rating has also been tracking upwards lightly, albeit more gently. As I explain in Crikey today, this improvement appears to have been driven by men rather than women.
You have mentioned how “maybe not so terrible” this government is so many times, and now you’re trying to pretend you’re just talking about whether they’re going to win or lose?
DavidWH
What are these great things you speak of…..Newman and health?
David Marr: ‘this is a Government for Coal’.
No doubt there’ll be lots of jobs for retired and defeated LNP politicians in the Fossil fuel industry, especially Coal (my words, not Mr Marr’s).
Plebisek would make a great leader,much better than the dull Shorten,but will any party in our lifetime…post-Gillard… ever chose a woman leader again
not bloody likely
[The great John Quiggin calls for the sacking of Mathias Cormann.]
I don’t think that he does, actually.
Can anyone spot the problem ? 🙂
[Abbott must charm Indonesia’s new leader]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/g20-appetiser-abbott-must-charm-indonesias-new-leader-joko-20141019-1189kb.html
Nicholas@1091
I suspect you have not properly installed cccp.
It is a while since I have done it so I forget the details, but I did not get it right first go… or even second go.
Re Confessions @1098: Well, Ian MacFarlene is a Liberal. Maybe he thinks low income earners don’t drive. In any case low income earners don’t have much in the way if apsavings, let alone ‘investments’.
Even when the polls were bad for this government, most people here were of the opinion they would still win a second term. I mean, there’s no point telling us that maybe we’re wrong now that the polls are closer. Bizarre.
William,
There seems to be a variation between what Quiggin writes and the headline. I hope he hasn’t gone all News tabloid on us.
WW1 seen through Google street view.
http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/oct/16/first-world-war-google-street-view?CMP=twt_gu
This is also the blog where apparently we need to tell others how much more self assured we are than them. *snicker*.
Have you got it all out of your system now DN, or do you need a few more posts?
William, have you ever considered that maybe, just maybe, you are not as self-assured as I am? You should consider it. A gentle suggestion. I’m just trying to open your eyes a bit. A reality check, so to speak.
Aren’t you glad we’ve had such a useful conversation?
The comment mentioned earlier. re: McFarlane certainly doesn’t sound like him, alas, when you lay down with dogs……
Steve777:
It’d be a pretty tin-eared thing to say, esp after all the blowback on their first budget.
But in any case, Google doesn’t return anything so I’m inclined to write it off as the usual social media rubbish.
E, nothing ever leaves my system ;).
I suggest prune juice and a high fibre breakfast….
Good advice.
Speaking of polls……how come an apparently “Infallible” Pope can lose a Bishop vote?
deblonay@1104
Rubbish deblonay, I am surprised you would say that.
I mentioned earlier that it used to be said that female candidates would not be supported. Well they were and that idea is dead and buried.
Tanya Plibersek would be a good female leader (if there was a vacancy) and she would have my full support.
Dee #1102 I fully support the health programs aimed at winding back the mess Rudd managed in the 90’s and specifically handing more responsibility and control back to health professionals in local areas. Rudd and Labor managed to turn what was a pretty effective health system into a bit of a mess. The situation had improved under the Newman government.
[Aren’t you glad we’ve had such a useful conversation?]
Maybe you’ve had one, but I’ve got no idea what you’re talking about.
William
Exactly.
John Quiggin writes about disastrous statements by leading conservatives, the lack of discipline by conservatives, the self-inflicted trashing of credibility within the government, and the disconnect between conservative circles and public opinion on racism and sexism. He titles his piece ‘Time to Terminate Cormann’. The article doesn’t discuss an alternative to Cormann but there is a clear message that a change of Finance Minister is required.
DavidWH
Well, if you think it has improved you obviously don’t have much to do with the health system.
Nicholas@1125
Bring back Arfur? 😀
[William Bowe
….
Maybe you’ve had one, but I’ve got no idea what you’re talking about.]
I am not sure DN has any idea what DN is talking about either, but just ignore it as it was directed at me anyway!
:devil:
Only as a customer Dee.
The odds are the Government will win a second term. It’s 80 years since the last single term Federal Government. But it’s not pre ordained. Labor need to take the fight to the Government. They have to force them to defend their toxic budget. They have to campaign on what it will do in the future (the IPA 75 Point plan and additional 25 point plans will be a useful guide.
Labor also have to counter a toxic media environment that gives the Government a barrier of about 2% (I can’t prove that assertion – but the Liberal-Murdoch cialition must biased reporting works). Most voters aren’t stupid but the Liberals will relentlessly pursue those who are. Labor needs to counter the dogwhistling. And it needs to neutralise this security and terrorism crap. A bit of ridicule might help.
And be aware that the Liberal/ Murdoch Dirt Units will be in overdrive. If any Labor membef was late for Sunday School as a kid it will be blown up into the crime of the Century.
And finally, while about 50% of the population will vote left, 90% of the money will be voting right (OK another assertion I can’t prove, but how do the 1% vote?).
Passing strange that a little while ago there were reports about some in the Liberal Party wanting McFarlane out.
McFarlane made a pledge that if the range crossing did not go ahead as promised he would resign.
Not only has the federal government withdrawn funding but the state government has frozen it for eight years.
[The project had been all but set in stone. The federal and state governments announced an 80-20 funding plan for the $1.6 billion project, which had been a pre-election promise from Tony Abbott]
Despite the headline, which seems to be an allusion to Arnold Schwarzenegger (with which the girly man phrase is connected), whom Cormann sounds a lot like when speaking, Quiggin does not call for Cormann’s dismissal.
Meher earlier was right. The boundaries between parody and public discourse are getting very flimsy indeed.
Quiggin’s substantive point was that the LNP now lacks a single credible figure in their alleged strong suit, economic management.
Fran
[Quiggin’s substantive point was that the LNP now lacks a single credible figure in their alleged strong suit, economic management.]
It hardly matters when everyone focuses on the circus.
DavidWH
I can only judge on what has been a dramatic decline in services and patient care at our local public hospital.
A nurse who made an anonymous contribution to the local rag, blowing the whistle was tracked down and sacked. Don’t know how they discovered her identity.
Fran Barlow@1132
I must be not really up with popular culture.
I thought the expression “girly man” referred to AFL players. 😐
Steve777 have you ever considered taking extra-parliamentary action against Abbott ?
Tanya or Bishop the Junior for PM is the kind of stuff that dreams/nightmares are made of for political parties.
I suppose given the conventional wisdom that newly elected LOTO rarely survive long enough to take their party to election victory, while weak and unpopular leaders of government parties tend to be replaced by their own side also, suggests talk of a fresh set of leaders is always on the cards.
If the Liberals see Abbott too weakened to win – and I don’t think he is there yet – then there are a whole heap of ordinary people of fill his shoes.
For Labor, they have more at risk by dumping Shorten than even the Liberals have by dumping Abbott. But then, politics is not a pretty business.
I think we have seen it all in the past 10 years so while two females battling it out on the hustings to lead as PM is always a possibility, I would not put any money on it.
[Speaking of polls……how come an apparently “Infallible” Pope can lose a Bishop vote?]
Small Scandinavian people changing, dare I say, goal posts.
[ ever considered taking extra-parliamentary action against Abbott ? ]
Something like shirtfronting the obnoxious prick maybe??
CTar1
[Small Scandinavian people changing, dare I say, goal posts.]
Well the SSP’s wiki does say……… 🙂
[… rarely helpful to human beings]
Have punters here failed to see the connection between “Girlie Man” and “Shirt-Fronting”?
There seems to be a deliberate ploy by the government to out-macho the Opposition.
Throw in “Boots on the ground”, “our front-line forces” (6 aircraft, maybe), Death Swords and Jihadi Supermax scandals and the idea seems to be that only the Real Men of the government can protect us against these foes, whether they be Vladimir Putin or some half-assed, mentally defective panel beater from Moonie Ponds turned zombie beheader.
Unfortunately for Cormann, he is already the subject of lampooning for being so like the Terminator, so I suspect the joke will backfire on him.
But youse have to believe there’s a focus group or two in there that reckons this kind of tough-talk sells.
Essentially, the Liberals have two budgets to save their souls. Plenty of time for rebounds for them, but on the basis of Budget 1, they will have to dig deep.
The world economic outlook is not looking too good for them to find enough to keep the punters happy.
Sooner or later – for example, if Abbott does not carry out some changes to his cabinet to get rid of the tons of dead wood he has, a goodly number of the newbies will become restless and that’s when the leaks start and the run down hill for a government speeds up.
Whether this be in the next two years remains to be seen.
The Pope got rolled? In days of yore, it would have been hemlock for the heretic bishop.
Perhaps Pope Whatsisname should have a talk to the Big Fella and come down with an encyclical? Or a Papal bulla? Or a stigmata or two?
Just back from picking up some family at the airport. Saw, amongst others, Pyne, Ruddock and Morrison.
Anyhoo, after all the hyped-up terror talk, there was no overt security, and easy access by the general public to senior cabinet ministers was virtually complete.
Bushfire Bill
Being PB’s ‘Senior 2GB Correspondent’ you would know it goes down a treat in 2GBland.
poroti
[rarely helpful to human beings]
Too right.
Saw, amongst others, Pyne, Ruddock and Morrison.
What an ugly crew
What does seem to have bitten is Labor’s accusation that the $18 million for Ebola and an unwillingness to commit people on the ground in the west of Africa – set against the $500 million touted for the ME – has struck home.
The government has been in self-righteous denial all day and even writing letters to the Opposition to request unanimity in relation to aid to west Africa.
I think Labor is on very good ground to go the government on this.
The fact that Bishop now says we will not put boots on the ground in the ME is very odd indeed.
Re Tricit @1142: Labor have to push Budget 1 – this is but the first instalment in what the Liberals want to do. And when Budget 3 come around, make it clear that the Liberals are liars who can’t be trusted. Ignore any promises or budget bribes.
Tricot and steve
Labor has scored a hit with the Ebola thing. It shows a government out of touch.
This feeds into how they are out of tough with their unfair and toxic budget. A budget that will be back in focus as the Senators decide what they are blocking and what they are not,