BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

Very little to report from the world of poll aggregation this week, with Newspoll hanging back another week for next week’s resumption of parliament.

The only new poll this week was from Essential Research, and it recorded next to no change from its established pattern, which means next to no change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. What change there is has caused Labor recover the slightest possible lead on the two-party preferred aggregate, but the seat total and its distribution between the states is entirely unchanged on last week. One point worth noting is the ongoing slide of Palmer United, which can be timed almost exactly to its Senators taking their seats at the start of July, and which has now brought it to its lowest ebb since the election. Essential Research also furnished us with a new seat of leadership ratings this week, the effect of which has been to moderate the upward lurch on Tony Abbott’s net approval rating caused by the recent Morgan phone poll. The overall trend for Abbott remains upward, but Bill Shorten’s rating has also been tracking upwards lightly, albeit more gently. As I explain in Crikey today, this improvement appears to have been driven by men rather than women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,183 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar

    Posted Thursday, October 16, 2014 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    I imagine that Lockheed Martin needs something to distract everyone from their latest work of engineering genius:

    The Joint Strike Fighter.

  2. Boerwar

    [I imagine that Lockheed Martin needs something to distract everyone from their latest work of engineering genius:

    The Joint Strike Fighter.]

    We already made this connection. 🙂
    I reckon it is the power source for the fighter 🙂


  3. Repost from the end of the last thread –


    [when he finally upgraded to the Datsun 180B]

    Be careful there!

    Long time Canberra viewers will remember hail damaged 180B’s and 120Y’s that were sold very cheap and went around for years before the bottom of the door-sill frames rusted out.

    I went to the lunch time sale with a friend from work who bought a purple 2 door 120Y.

    I asked him ‘Why the purple one?’

    Answer: ‘If it’s going to be poxy you may as well go all the way’.

  4. Lockheed Martin working on a fusion reactor does raise a serious question in my mind: if a workable fusion reactor does get developed in the USA, will the US Government classify and restrict it to military applications?

    After all, a working reactor would have significant military potential. Would they allow potential competitors to use it?

  5. Ctar1,

    I remember reading a review of the Datson 120Y. It said it was unsafe at any speed including being stationary.

  6. I just had a call from a Glencoe Research Company conducting a survey on attitudes to the retirement age being put back to 70. I was not eligible to complete the survey as I’m already retired. It was a bit frustrating, because I really wanted to have my opinion recorded. I was only a few months short of my 70th birthday when I retired, and I still do some work, but I’m totally opposed to the policy, especially for people who work in physically demanding jobs.
    I heard a man in his late 70s the other day describe himself to a nurse at the local hospital as a ‘bludger’, because he’s an aged pensioner. We are being brainwashed.

  7. I still think the ‘house bias’ adjustment is too severe and producing an overly conservative result in BludgerTrack.

    Is BludgerTrack worse for the ALP than all of the published polls?

  8. Apparently LM are going to shift their skunk works to Diego Garcia.

    This location will ensure that the credulous bloviaters, those in their cups, and some (but not all) Greens, will believe LM’s view that fusion is just around the corner.

    One thing is for sure: they will strap a lot of seat cushions to the fusion thingie so that when she blows everyone will be comforted by finding thousands of seat cushions scattered across the Indian Ocean – all leading to Diego Garcia.

  9. I think one thing affecting the PUP slide is advertising. Before every election (i.e., Federal and WA senate), PUP went on a major advertising blitz, even outspending major parties, promoting a populist line. Therefore, it did not have a solid base of support, but rather it managed to grab many voters who had little direct interest in politics but found some of the populist rhetoric very appealing (this is my assumption anyway). It will be interesting to see how the QLD state election plays out next year for PUP; and how much Clive spends on it.

  10. Those concerned about the lack of volatility in the stock markets have, doubtless, had that concern laid to rest.

    They now have some other concerns to concern them.

  11. BW,

    There are only situationsyou should be concerned about your investments in the stock market. When it goes up, when it goes down and when it doesn’t move at all.

  12. [ Those concerned about the lack of volatility in the stock markets have, doubtless, had that concern laid to rest.]

    Or have had their concerns confirmed.

    The Fed looking in their box of ‘tricks’ ?

  13. GG

    [It said it was unsafe at any speed including being stationary.]

    The 180B, 120Y and 240C were notorious for the number of times you had to give the doors a good heave upwards to get them to shut properly.

  14. BW –

    I’d saying trying to convince the Germans to allow the ECB to start printing money hollis bollis.

    Deflation still the big worry and stalled growth in Europe.

    Ain’t “Free Markets” Grand 🙂

  15. My husband bought a 120Y cheap off a workmate who was going overseas. I drove it for a couple of months before we sold it on.

    I remember the feeling of horror when our neighbour said we should keep it for me because it was a ‘nice lady’s car’.


    State Liberal Conference Attacks Hare-Clark System

    This is pretty much Tas or ACT specific but I post a link here for anyone who might be interested. The Tas Liberal conference passed a motion calling on the state government to investigate junking Hare-Clark and the government said no. I take a close look at some of the arguments and find most of them to be silly.

  17. CTar1

    [Does it come with a plastic sword?]

    I’ll buy a plastic sword for my STAR POWER FIGHTER.

    I’ll hang it off the rear vision mirror!

  18. I’ll be covering Hobart City Council counting most of next week. Might have time for a quick federal polling roundup sometime (though they don’t get all that much interest anyway unless the government is polling badly.)

  19. BW

    Long memories of the hyper inflation etc of the 30’s. They would have to be in deep dodo to agree to QE – but who knows what ‘persuasion’ might be put to them?

    I’d think the Fed would have dusted off the PPT (Plunge Protection Team also known as PPC – PP Committee also know as the Presidential/ Fed Committee on Markets) as well by now.

  20. [ ruawake
    Posted Thursday, October 16, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    Why do many share market crashes start in late October? Is another one a week or so away? ]

    One theory is that thats when the straight line add 10% estimates fall to earth, but this year is also the second year of the US Presidential election cycle which is also historically poor performance wise.

    The “Sell in May” strategy etc even for dips corrections is supported by various data. Such data may or may not have been produced to order of course ?

    Plus the *party* has been in full swing since 2009 with the FED basically saying, buy, buy and penalising savers etc with basically interest rates after inflation etc.

    But the Fed may still ride in with the cavalry – some people were buying with their ears pinned back in our market today and it wasn’t daytraders moving the market. Big money.

    Also the ASX data feed was down about an hour from 2:30 pm and when it had come back the market had ‘bounced’ another 40 points or so ? It may just have been a computer outage.

    Lets see how it is reported.

  21. BW

    The ECB boss says the Germans keep saying No to want he wants to do. He wants to do the same as the US – print money.

    Everyone wants to take the easy way out.

    The legendary former FED Boss Paul Volker says markets have to find their own feet and the fed needs to get out of the way – he points to previous crashes where recovery was faster etc without the Fed, QE etc..

    Did you see that article BW linked this am ? Very Good –

  22. S777

    Apparently the MH270 cargo hold included a prototype functioning mini-fusion reactor cobbled together by Lockheed Martin’s skunk works. The project management for this was based on the project management for the JSF. The reactor was being secretly transported to Diego Garcia. Some people know the reason for this but are hiding the reason from the rest of us. It is enough for us to know that the Great Satan was involved.

    The reason no one has been able to find MH270’s seat cushions is fairly obvious: they were turned into plasma, along with the rest of the plane, when a stewart, possibly tipsy on rifled duty free, hit the ‘delete all’ key.

    This might also explain why:

    (1) the head of Emirates feelpinioned that MH270 was/was not under control until the end*

    (2) Malaysian Airlines has yet to release the cargo manifest.

    (3) the pings were, electronically speaking, deviant.

    *links to both positions can be found in Bludger archives.

  23. Zoom

    I bought a Mercedes mid-sized V8 from a Melbourne car dealer a couple of years ago.

    It’s an ‘Avantgarde’ variety so has lots of perforated black leather and much electronics.

    While doing the test drive the sales guy says to me “This is a mans car. If you’re after something for your mistress I’ve got a C200 …”


  24. dave

    I am sure that M. Hollande will ensure that France will take over chief locomotive duties for the EU train.

    I note that the Russians have caved to the Chinese.

  25. Bw

    The LHD’s are just waiting for Tones to order their re-renovation.

    A big hole and some lifts will get them back (cost) to the original design. Plus all the money that was spent on modifying the standard to start with.

  26. Mortlock:

    [I think one thing affecting the PUP slide is advertising. Before every election (i.e., Federal and WA senate), PUP went on a major advertising blitz, even outspending major parties, promoting a populist line.]

    That doesn’t seem to accord with the timing. PUP’s polling started to pick up around the time of the Budget, and started to slide around when the new Senate sat.

  27. [The relationship between humanity and coal is like our relationship with our exes: there were good times, sure, but we really need get out before this thing literally kills us.
    And Flanagan makes a solid point, but “coal is good for humanity” is not even the most ludicrous thing the PM’s said in the last week. It’s definitely in the top five, though. Alright, top seven.
    Still, you know that this seditious statement will break the heart of broadcaster Ray Hadley, a man who couldn’t be more Australian if he was a kangaroo holding a sprig of wattle under the Southern Cross while denying climate change.]

    Read more:

  28. Boerwar

    [Shouldn’t they do some swim-time before they get fixed up, already?]
    Goodness no. HoJo and Johnson think that there are huge efficiency dividends to be had by cutting that part of it out all together.

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