Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September

Newspoll has given us its regularly quarterly insight into how its last three months of polling have broken down according to state, gender and age group.

The Australian has published its regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by (mainland) state, gender and age group, from its combined polling over the period of July to September. With this big infusion of state-level data, later this week I will publish the BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown, featuring state-level primary vote numbers and polling trend charts (you can see the previous effort from the end of June here). Also later today should be the regularly weekly Essential Research poll.

In case you missed it, yesterday’s Roy Morgan gave the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead was down from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the 2013 election. The Greens were steady at 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

UPDATE (Essential Research): No change whatsoever in Essential Research – Coalition 40%, Labor 39%, Greens 10%, Palmer United 4%, two-party 52-48 to Labor. A suite of questions on major government decisions over the past year turn in predictable responses, with turning back the boats, freezing foreign aid and dumping the carbon tax strongly approved of, and pretty much anything involving the budget disapproved of. The only neutral responses were for military aid to Iraq and dumping the mining tax. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated the economy well managed, against 28% for poorly. Respondents were most concerned about cost of living issues, and least concerned about national debt and the budget deficit. Other questions find an even balance between those who think income tax too high (42%) and about right (40%); more favouring less services and lower taxes (28%) than the opposite (19%), but with 35% preferring the current balance; and 59% thinking it would be good for the economy if corporations paid more tax, versus 17% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: July to September”

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  1. There’s a total Lunar eclipse in progress for those who aren’t aware. Totality is 9:27 to 10:22 pm Sydney Dailight Saving time.

    As per usual for these things, Sydney is cloudy. Marine layer cloud, the curse of the NSW coast in the warmer months. But there are some gaps. Worth a look outside, especially if you have better weather.

  2. p

    One of our senior uniforms let the cat out of the bag a month or so ago.

    He started babbling about a hundred years war. They got to him pretty quickly and told him to STFU, I imagine.

    In Melb leafy upper middle class Ivanhoe the CoE Grammer School has told the boys who are in Cadets NOT to wear their cadet uniforms for fear of a terror attack on them
    what sheer lunacy
    I doubt if there are manny people of”middle eatern appearance” anywhere in quiet Ivanhoe, with its hedges and federation houses ….even greeks or lebaneses would be rare…very white middle class is Ivanhoe…but the boys are alerted now to a terror attack…and the police seem to go along with that

    what amazing,hysterical stuff

    can any PBer top this ?

  4. Re BW @703: lucky you.

    Scanning the previous page, I see Dick ta Phone gate’s getting a run again. Naphthine must be getting desparate. There’s nothing to it but from the little I’ve seen of it but no doubt the Herald Sun will blow it up into the scandal of the century.

  5. [An Islamic political organisation, which has been heavily criticised by the Prime Minister, has described the actions of Australia and the United States in Iraq as more barbaric than those of Islamic State militants.

    A spokesman for Hizb ut-Tahrir – which advocates for a global caliphate or Islamic state which follows sharia law – said US-led missions in Iraq had killed more than a million Iraqis.

    “What I’m opposed to is a level of oppression, of barbarity that far exceeds anything ISIS would even imagine doing, and that’s represented in the actions of governments like Australia and its allies like America,” Wassim Doureihi told Sky TV.

    “I’m condemning something which is infinitely greater in barbarity than anything ISIS has ever done or could even imagine doing.]

  6. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, October 8, 2014 at 9:18 pm | PERMALINK
    No chance of seeing the blood moon here. It’s cloudy tonight.]

    I blame Abbott

  7. Blood moon over the nation’s capital.

    Is it a portent for 100 years of war, rumours of war, and of unrestrained terror in the leafy heights in bucolic Aranda?

    Will the Terrs belt the bejesus out of Belco vegie gardens?

    Or will someone work out how to control the Brush-tailed Possums in a non-violent way?

  8. No word from the federal government on Golden Dawn.

    [“It’s not that Golden Dawn will be able to muster enough energy for political influence here. Our concern is its ability to contribute resources [to the Greek branch] and to send people over there to work with the organisation,” he said. Australian members of the group had regularly travelled to Greece to take part in demonstrations and engage in “paramilitary training”, he said.

    In Athens, leftist activists who maintain contact with the Melbourne-based “No to Golden Dawn” campaign pledged to help stop the party broadening its support base.

    “Their aim, clearly, is to set up Nazi cells of hate in the Greek diaspora that would strengthen far-right forces that already exist in Australia and the United States,” said Petros Constantinou, a prominent campaigner with the Movement against Racism and the Fascist Threat (Keerfa).]

  9. UK terror expert on 730 tonight said worst thing would be to outlaw the Islam group as they will simply go underground. Abbott as usual making all the wrong moves.

    The coming of Jack Frost ………….

    While Abbott and Bishop seem to have lost all interest in the Ukraine,the economic collapse oif the Ukraine goes on apace with a US site looking at what is called the Approach of General Jack Frost…with its still unpaid gas bill and the Russian gas pipeline cut,the approach of the terrible winter ,which destroyed Napolean and Hitler ,too name two, ….the Kiev regime needs lot of cash and very soon.. might .Abbott and Hockey gallop to their aid ??

  11. Didn’t I see something about Tony Abbott telling Alan Jones about the Government’s intention to issue ‘red cards’ for hate speech. Great idea, if Jones were to be an earlier recipient, although I don’t think that’s going to happen.

    I don’t think that Abbott or any of his clowns in Cabinet see the irony.

    On another topic, the total Lunar eclipse is over but the Moon will be in partial eclipse for another hour or so. Managed to get a few glimpses through breaks in the cloud.

  12. Steve777:

    Far’s I can ascertain it was a total dog whistle pitched to the 2GB frothers. In the next breath Abbott went on to talk about Australians “who say something stupid”, as if those who actively talk up committing terrorist acts against civillians are analogous to your everyday anti-establishment suburban bogan.

  13. Lateline interview.

    The muslim guy was raising valid points of argument. It would have been interesting to hear them.

    Instead it was the Abbott terror line being pushed.

    So we got no idea of how radical this mob really are

  14. Lizzie – he wasn’t coming across at all well, and he certainly would be making a lot of moderate muslims here very unhappy for the bad visuals.

    Alberici didn’t handle the situation at all well, though, and simply reacted rather than doing her job as an interviewer. He was hardly the first person to not answer a question, but Alberici decided that this time she was going to get all bolshy about getting a soundbite answer.

    Bleh. Two people shouting at each other doesn’t lead to much enlightenment.

  15. confessions – I would answer but I can’t remember – an Aussie representative of the Islamic group Abbott was talking about banning today.

  16. Confessions

    Twitter helps.

    @EddyJokovich: Alberici has invited Wassim Dourehi onto #lateline to humiliate him. Terrible interview. #auspol

  17. Guyaur,

    [The muslim guy was raising valid points of argument. It would have been interesting to hear them.

    Instead it was the Abbott terror line being pushed.

    So we got no idea of how radical this mob really are]

    I’m no fan of Abbott, but I would much prefer to listen to his “terror line” than the Sunni propaganda from a Hizb ut-Tahrir mouthpiece. They are a thoroughly unpleasant organisation. Whether banning them would achieve anything, I’m not sure, but I do think Lateline and the Festival of Dangerous Ideas, etc, should stop giving them legitimacy they don’t deserve.

  18. Bugler

    If you invite someone on tv to inform Australians of their views that is what you are doing.

    He did raise some valid points like dog whistling I have seen bludgers raise.

    The point is the interview was so bad he did not get any views across. As a viewer you are none the wiser

  19. Hmmmm

    I wonder who Ken Lay votes for? He does seem to like wearing black shirts.

    he will not release crime stats. will announce damaging charges during an election campaign.

    the vic election will show the power of the murdoch media – they have been relentless over the past 2 weeks and will only get worse. I have noticed the age being more biased towards Labor than usual, after a period of giving Andrews a hard time. it’s going to be a closer election than most people thought, and on current boundaries, labor needs about 51% of the state wide vote to win a majority. I predict napthine will scrape back in – the up side of this is that he’s a more moderate lib and federal LNP will remain toxic in vic. – Even my dyed in the wool LNP bogan-in-laws HATE abbott.

    best case scenario will be a hung parliament with a ALP-Greens alliance, but both fairfax and murdoch will go hard against the greens.

  20. confessions

    Alberici is good. Thats why I was so dissapointed with this interview.

    As Tony Jones has observed innumerable times. People talking over each other does not make for informed viewing

  21. Guytaur,

    I haven’t seen the interview and believe that Alberici may not have handled it well. I have no problem with his organisation being shown for how repulsive it is, but I do think people underestimate them and allow them to take up ground they don’t deserve. Hizb ut-Tahrir is not a moderate organisation, nor a democratic or peaceful one. We shouldn’t let their voice drown out that of ordinary Muslims and spread the hate further. They want us to hate them, and also hate muslims generally, so they turn to that organisation for leadership. We too easily let these things happen.

  22. bugler

    You are talking about deciding at the editorial level to have them on. Its like the decision to interview Pauline Hanson. Do you interview them or not.

    Once you decide to interview them though it should be done properly.

  23. SF,

    Ken Lay was (and remains?) a member of the Liberal Party. I don’t, however, think that’s influencing him on this matter. I think he knows enough about politics to see how that would be a stupid idea and backfire on him quite significantly. (Not that I’m saying input or comment on something so trivial from so high up isn’t completely ridiculous).

  24. Throughout the Cold War period, Communists were allowed to be Communists, believe in the future world revolution, the dictatorship of the prolitariate and the workers’ paradise (actually reminds me of the Apostles’ Creed).

    Now Muslim fundamentalists, like Communists, have a right to their beliefs. Like Communists, they are subject to our law.

    Around the time I was born, Australians, the ‘Hero generation’, voted that whatever concerns they had about Communism, they had a right to follow their beliefs within the law. So why should this lesser generation be accepting the crap about sacrificing freedom for security we’re getting now.

  25. Bugler@743


    Ken Lay was (and remains?) a member of the Liberal Party. I don’t, however, think that’s influencing him on this matter. I think he knows enough about politics to see how that would be a stupid idea and backfire on him quite significantly. (Not that I’m saying input or comment on something so trivial from so high up isn’t completely ridiculous).

    That is incorrect.

    He was apparently a member for a short time many years ago when he was a cop in a country town.

    I think he generally does a good job, particularly in being responsive on issues such as domestic violence.

  26. Bemused,

    I merely said that he had been, but wasn’t sure how long was. I agree Lay has been doing a good job. I also think that this matter has to be run past him as farcical, which likely only happened due to being pestered by Fairfax and News who don’t want the story to die.

  27. bemused

    Lay impressed me in his handling of the Melbourne stabbing (Terror) incident. He kept giving facts in pressers and correcting media reports sometimes more than once a day.

    That struck me as a professional not running along with the politics of the day not even though it may result in increased funding.

    Its not often we see him up here in Sydney so its all I have to go on

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