Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll records a solid shift in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings in the wake of recent war and terrorism talk, although the yield on voting intention is rather slight.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor leading 51-49, which is down a point on last time and equal with the time before (and also the same as the ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday). Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up two), 34% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (down three on last time, back to where they were the time before). Tony Abbott has enjoyed a big hike in his personal ratings, up six on approval to 41% and down two on disapproval to 52%, and he has gained a 41-37 lead on preferred prime minister after being level at 37-37 last time. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval 43%. Hat-tip to GhostWhoVotes, and of course The Australian.

Also out today was the regularly fortnightly Morgan poll, covering a sample of 2922 respondents from two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling. This recorded next to no change for the major parties on the primary vote – the Coalition on 38.5% and Labor on 37.5%, both up half a point on last fortnight – but has the minor parties moving in accordance with recent trends, the Greens being up 1.5% to 12% and Palmer United being down half a point to 4%. The previous poll was the only one recently published which failed to record a lift for the Greens, no doubt because half the survey period predated the bipartisan commitment to send military forces to Iraq. Labor gains half a point on both the respondent-allocated and previous election measures of two-party preferred, respectively leading 54.5-45.5 and 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 53-47 to Labor, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 39%, the Greens down one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 4%. Also featured is a biannual gauge of attributes of the various parties, recording little change for Labor since March apart from a six point drop on “clear about what they stand for”, while the Liberal Party has weakened across the board, particularly with respect to “keeps its promises” (down nine points), “divided” (up eight points) and “looks after the interests of working people” (down six points). The poll adds further to a somewhat confusing picture on the public attitudes to the Iraq commitment, with 52% expressing approval for sending military personnel versus 34% disapproval. However, 51% say doing so will make Australia less safe from terrorism, versus only 15% for more safe. Questions on industrial relations laws indicate broad satisfaction with the status quo, 30% saying current laws balance the interests of employers and workers, and a fairly even 23% and 17% believing they favour employers and workers respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,151 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. [1007
    sceptic

    I heard the dimwit Brandis in the Senate today giving his condolences to the police & their families, but not the family of the poor boy shot.

    Typical politicising Liberal twat, the family came to Australia as refuges from Afghanistan looking to escape the troubles there.

    It appears they attempted to help their son & steer him away from trouble, they deserve sympathy.]

    You’re quite right, sceptic. As I tried to point out earlier today, we are entitled to expect those who wish to lead the country to act in ways that bring us together.

    Death has its accomplices. Revenge, anger, punishment, rejection. Combustion. Anguish. Hot heads. I have this terrible feeling that we are going to see more of this gang, these filthy bandits. Australians have not yet killed anyone in the wastelands of Iraq or Syria, but we’ve already started killing each other. It’s too much.

  4. From what I’ve seen about the Melbourne shooting, the guy seems more like someone who has really gone off the rails and spiralled downwards, rather than a hard-core terrorist who is part of any serious terror cell.

    While the Muslim bit isn’t incidental, I don’t think its the main story.

  9. [I am sure I am not the only person who can read numbers and scroll up and down a blog page.]

    Yeah babe, but you’re the only who would bother. 🙂

  10. GG

    [He went to a gun fight with a knife.

    That was never going to end well.]

    Evidently he shook their hands and then attacked two armed policemen. Truly bizarre. Almost a para-suicide (death by cop it’s sometimes called).

  11. briefly,

    That won’t save you.

    Serialisation, Christmas presents, cleaning out the bird cage.

    Who knows where you will be tainted by an idea.

  12. [1076
    Greensborough Growler
    briefly,
    They may not have dignity. But, they do have book deals.]

    And both books will be in the bargain bin pretty quickly.

    Australians don’t really appreciate political memoirs.

  17. Diogs,

    I keep hearing Dangerfield wants out of Adelaide.

    Ryder will be going to Brisbane because of his wife’s demands.

    Clarkson for Adelaide?

  18. [1111
    Greensborough Growler

    briefly,

    That won’t save you.

    Serialisation, Christmas presents, cleaning out the bird cage.

    Who knows where you will be tainted by an idea.]

    Infernal ideas. I keep them in my trouser pockets, mixed up with loose change and notes to self. They are like bouncy cheques. Marked “refer to drawer” or some such. People take no responsibility for poor ideas. I like to think I’m frugal, both with my money (meagre as it is) and my conscious declarations, my ideas, my contemplations, my logic. Others must get their ideas on credit. They seem to have so many.

  19. So, since when did a directive from a terrorist organisation become a Fatwa??

    I thought that could only be issued by a senior cleric??

    And seems that the word is being used out of context which sucks in terms of it being inflammatory language.

    From Wikipedia:

    [ A fatwā (Arabic: فتوى‎; plural fatāwā Arabic: فتاوى‎) in the Islamic faith is the term for the legal opinion or learned interpretation that a qualified jurist or mufti can give on issues pertaining to the Islamic law. ]

  20. [
    Big footy news (apologies to non-ALf fans). Dayne Beams requesting transfer to a Qld team. He’s a fabulous player.]

    I am sure we are all Alf fans at heart! It was a popular show after all.

    [ALF is an American sitcom that aired on NBC from September 22, 1986 to March 24, 1990. It was the first television series to be presented in Dolby Surround sound system.]

  21. GG

    I think Danger is a free agent next year. He’ll probably see how he goes with the new coach.

    He polled very well in the Brownlow (came 4th or 5th) but he was far from the 4th or 5th best player in the AFL this year.

  25. imacca:

    Under Brandis laws those kinds of comments are sure to be tagged as propaganda which could easily be swooped upon by “Islamic State recruiters”!

  27. [William says he’s never seen a ex-PM speak that way and that is of course true. The closest analogue I can think of in the political arena]

    The closest direct comparison is probably some of the things Hawke has said about Keating (I believe he was particularly ungracious one night in 1992 when he was seen a bit tipsy in public for one of the first times in a decade) and vice versa. But they are indeed restrained by comparison.

  28. [ Under Brandis laws those kinds of comments are sure to be tagged as propaganda which could easily be swooped upon by “Islamic State recruiters”! ]

    Lol! Time to ammo up and head for the hills then fess. 🙂

  30. Martin B:

    By severely over-reaching like he has Rudd has almost guaranteed that Gillard’s reasonable viewpoint will be seen in a harsh, partisan, he-said-she-said light. Which was presumably his intent.

    It’s a total wreck the joint move. And that should tell you everything you need to know about Kevin Rudd.

  31. Climate Change if a bigger crisis
    than terrorism…says Obama
    _________________________________
    What a pity Abbott was’t there at the NY climate conference

    to hear some wise words from Obama…which he wouldn’t have liked anyway

    Obama was full on re climate change
    Abbott is in a small minority now and there may be measures that emerge which will seriously embarrass the Oz Govt line

  32. Fess

    [It’s a total wreck the joint move. And that should tell you everything you need to know about Kevin Rudd.]

    We learned all we needed well before his second brief term, but for any sticklers, that effort ought to have sufficed.

  33. I guess Gillard’s book was inevitable, but boy has it made for a tedious return to some events best forgotten.

    Roll on next week when everyone forgets it again.

  34. Roll on next week? It’ll be wall to wall terrorists.

    Labor should try to knock some of the edges off the worst aspects of tge latest terror legislation then do its utmost to change the conversation back to jobs, health, education, Medicare, jobs, jobs…

  35. [And in a region steeped in scepticism, with good reason, the words of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, while attending the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, will be cheered by many: “Is it not paradoxical that a country says it wants to fight a terrorist group in Syria, but on the other hand creates armed terrorist groups to fight [that same country’s] central government?”]

    Welcome to the sort of incoherent shit we’re involved in.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/barack-obamas-arab-alliance-a-fragile-affair-in-a-region-cynical-of-us-intent-20140924-10lcrz.html#ixzz3EEyAljfN

  39. [Labor should try to knock some of the edges off the worst aspects of tge latest terror legislation then do its utmost to change the conversation back to jobs, health, education, Medicare, jobs, jobs…]

    I agree. HAving neutered Abbott quite effectively of the type of natural advnatgae PMs get in this situation by being broadly supportive, its now time to set up a more sensible counter-narrative

    eg “we need to be very careful in winding back our rights and freedoms, lest it look like a retreat from the values we are defending”.

    That’ll knock Abbott over in a trice. He’s not that good at this. Dont be intimidated. Put them on some tricky ground.

    I think the ALP did well in setting some benchmarks – how do we know this is working – on Iraq. Keep it up. Move it to the home front.

  42. eg “we need to be very careful in winding back our rights and freedoms, lest it look like a retreat from the values we are defending

    Absolutely. Shorten could and should use those exact words. It will also tend to push Abbott, Brandis et al to make the case for their changes. Not that they will, they’ll just bluster loudly that their’s is the only way. But at least Shorten would sound like a voice of reason.

  44. In case you have forgotten about the Ukraine in all the whoha over terrorism_________
    ___________
    As the first taste of winter cuts in…Ukraine faces a great crisis over the non-payment of it’s Gas Bill to the Russians

    The Euros now realise what a basket case they have taken on with the collapsing Ukrainian economy
    and who will pay the gas bill,now that the gas supply has been cut

    In the East ,a 30 kms demilitarised zone between the Eukr and the Insurgents in”Novorussia” means the insurgents have a virtual statelet with open bordes to Russia,with gas, oil ,food and supplies on tap
    In Kiev the hardliners are attacking Poroschenko the Pres. and some say they may stage a coup
    Poroschenko is now making olvertures to Russia…as the Russian embargos on Ukr farm products are hittig the farmers…and in Euroland the farmers have 150.000 tons of their chesse denied to Russia by sanctions which is costing a fortune to store,,,whith the Russins getting cheese elsewhere,,,some from NZ(but not from us)

    all in all a fine mess for Euroland…and no help from the US which is economically unaffected
    Business Insider looks at dire the situation for Euroland
    http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-eu-warns-russia-not-to-use-gas-as-weapon-in-ukraine-crisis-2014

  47. deblonay
    sh.. u. you are only peeved there was no war in ukraine and your old mate putin their good resurrected soviet could not overrun the country then start with baltic traitors. keep reading your old crimea travelogues that you used to quote here and go to bed you old rusted on stalinist

  48. Post 1147 Btiefly
    _____-_____
    What silly stuff you write

    why not comment when youy are more sober

    What I posted was from a US Business mag and looked at the economic crisis in both Euroland the The Ukr
    nothing much to do with Putin..but a lot to do with the collapsing Ukr economy …it all seems beyond your understanding it seems ..all your comments are just silly slogans

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