BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Three new results give Labor and the Greens a lift in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Three new polls this week have collectively taken the shine off the Coalition’s recent recovery in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and returned Labor to absolute majority territory on the seat projection. Labor is recorded as gaining six seats, including two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Its primary vote is little changed, but there’s an intriguing uptick for the Greens – something Essential Research contributed to, as well as the widely noted three-point lift in Newspoll – which quite possibly has something to do with major party bipartisanship on Iraq. Meanwhile, Palmer United is recorded as heading the other way, falling to a five-month low. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided leadership ratings this week, which have brought Bill Shorten nearer to parity on net approval, levelled off the positive trend to Tony Abbott, and left preferred prime minister much as it was, with Abbott narrowly in front.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,807 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  2. hire car companies and a private school, albeit catholic but none the less….

    the town, its not an aboriginal community, looks like Karratha before the mining boom

  4. “@latikambourke: ! RT @Kieran_Gilbert: A-G Brandis says we’re not at war: “it’s a humanitarian mission with military elements” @SkyNewsAust”

  8. As per article linked above

    Tony Abbott says a final decision is yet to be taken on whether our forces deploy in Iraq itself. Right now, they are being “prepositioned” to our base at Al Minhad, in the United Arab Emirates.

    Don’t believe it.

    Within days it will become clear that Australia is to play a “proportionate” yet key role in a lethal multi-national campaign involving an air war of staggering ferocity, and support for ground forces operating in Iraq, and potentially even, into Syria.

  9. 120,000 dead in Iraq in 12 years, whereas in Rwanda that many died in some weeks, and 800,000 died in three months.

    And yet Abbott/Obama did nothing…selective humanitarians

  13. @Kieran_Gilbert “A-G Brandis says we’re not at war: “it’s a humanitarian mission with military elements” @SkyNewsAust”

    LOL like my last diet was a weight loss mission with fast food elements.

  14. AA

    I know I’ve said it previously but the only way IS will be defeated is for the west to be as brutal

    LOL … the west has been as brutal, arguably more so, and on a much larger scale. ISIS is a result of that.

    What’s that aphorism about continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result?

  17. AA

    I know I’ve said it previously but the only way IS will be defeated is for the west to be as brutal

    LOL … the west has been as brutal, arguably more so, and on a much larger scale. ISIS is a result of that.

    What’s that aphorism about continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result?

    I am pretty sure for anyone awake our record of ‘success’ in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria would lead to very serious questions about the mental health of leaders still trying exactly the same tactic (but with less conviction) that got us to this point.

  21. fess …

    That front page put me in mind of that track by Devo:

    Crack that whip
    Give the past a slip
    Step on a crack
    Break your momma’s back

    When a problem comes along
    You must whip it
    Before the cream sets out too long
    You must whip it
    When something’s goin’ wrong
    You must whip it

  24. Mr Howard spoke about his leadership, the handover and his character.

    Handover? They make it sound like Howard’s departure from parliament was so orderly and commonplace.

  25. Bombing IS will be as effective as trying to bomb Collingwood supporters.

    Bombing collingwood supporters would have my full support collectively they are the most feral and stupidest supporters in the AFL.

  26. confessions

    Howard must be smiling. The fool that followed him as LNP PM is already doing the war thing to distract from the budget that cannot be sold.

  29. Mr Howard spoke about his leadership, the handover and his character.

    No doubt the ‘handover’ is Howard fully crediting Keating for the economic joy Howard inherited, did nothing for and nothing with except to nail on a GST. The discussion of character would be really really shot.

  32. AA

    120,000 dead in Iraq in 12 years, whereas in Rwanda that many died in some weeks, and 800,000 died in three months.
    And yet Abbott/Obama did nothing…selective humanitarians

    Bill Clinton and John Howard were in charge during the Rwandan genocide.

  36. What is the exit strategy, Labor or LNP. Who can say, what is a mission win? Bill needs to speak up and inform the country the labor vision of why we need to be involved

  37. Does a higher terror alert mean that other countries will recommend that tourists do not come to Australia? I’ve already seen a hint that it might affect student numbers.

  40. AussieAchmed:

    And yet Abbott/Obama did nothing…selective humanitarians

    No matter what one might think of Abbott and Obama, at the time of the Rwandan genocide Abbott was a newly minted Opposition backbencher and Obama was still an associate in a law firm.

  42. We now know the “objectives”. But who’s to judge?

    “If the Iraqi government, the Kurdish regional government are able to maintain reasonable control over their substantial towns, if they’re able to provide reasonable protection to their own people that will be success.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/there-are-clear-and-achievable-objectives-in-iraq-says-tony-abbott-20140915-10gykz.html#ixzz3DL7bw9yu

  46. “@TheKouk: The income shock unfolding for Australia is huge. Lower AUD, flat stock market; faltering house prices make for glum times”

  48. As per link above

    Michael Smith living in the Kathy Jackson bungalow
    Sharri Markson
    Darren Davidson
    THE AUSTRALIAN

    SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 12:00AM
    KATHY Jackson is the partner of the nation’s industrial umpire, Fair Work Commission deputy president Michael Lawler, who has the quasi-status of judge. Living at their home in a coastal retreat is the sacked 2UE host ­Mich­ael Smith — who happens to be a blogger and Jackson’s No 1 fan. Diary can reveal Smith has been living with Jackson for some time in a bungalow or self-contained granny flat on her and Lawler’s property in Sydney’s south. He also recently went on a holiday to Bali with Jackson.

  49. Latest Tweet from Andrew Casey re TURC

    Chiquita Mushroom paid $4k a month to AWU Vic at time Cesar Melhem ‘predecessor’ was at the helm #turc told. So can expect Shorten name soon

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