Three new polls this week have collectively taken the shine off the Coalition’s recent recovery in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and returned Labor to absolute majority territory on the seat projection. Labor is recorded as gaining six seats, including two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Its primary vote is little changed, but there’s an intriguing uptick for the Greens – something Essential Research contributed to, as well as the widely noted three-point lift in Newspoll – which quite possibly has something to do with major party bipartisanship on Iraq. Meanwhile, Palmer United is recorded as heading the other way, falling to a five-month low. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided leadership ratings this week, which have brought Bill Shorten nearer to parity on net approval, levelled off the positive trend to Tony Abbott, and left preferred prime minister much as it was, with Abbott narrowly in front.
Dee
No, as I’ve said, Shorten is doing the right thing – it’s not only politically.
Centre@1699
Fortunately most voters will prove to be smarter than you.
Turkey’s place place in this crisis
________Newsweek looks at the successful recruiting drives by IS in the bleak working class suburbs of Istanbul,where many young turkish men are enlisiting to fight for IS
Some years ago on a visit to Turkey….I inadvertantly took the wrong ferry while returning to Istanbul from a day in the lovely Prince’s Islands in the Sea of Mammora
This landed me in a remote suburb and I needed to take two local buses to return to central Istanbul where I was staying ..helped by an elderly Turkish man on the bus…..that would take me back the the great historic Istanbul on the Bosphorus that tourist visit and admire
But I found the vast dense crowded web of suburbs housing the millions who flock to the great city for work from rural Anatolia ,very daunting..and it’s thought that the city’s population might be over 20 million ..making it the biggest in Europe by far
The Turkish Govt’s foolish support for the islamist efforts to overthrow Assad have now backfired and the whole Turkish scene in now confused and dangerous
see article below
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/09/19/exclusive-how-istanbul-became-recruiting-ground-islamic-state-269247.html
davidwh @ 1696
You obviously agree with me as well. I’ve supported it from day 1 where Obama was telling other world leaders there is a problem.
The trouble is that nearly every time external forces become involved in these (or any other) territories, the results are de-stabilising. So the question is why any new involvement will make things more rather than less stable? Why? How?
Centre occasionally I am on the same page as someone here 🙂
Bemused @ 1702
Well, unfortunately for you, Shorten is supporting the Liberals.
So that leaves me siding with the two major parties and you with the Greens.
Now who is smarter, me or you 😆
davidwh
We’re loon free – it’s all good!
Centre@1707
Me
I’m not sure I’d ask the bull to come back and clean up the china shop, no matter how morally obligated it feels.
I think that the US, UK and Aust have a responsibility to at least try to restore some kind of order in Iraq.
Given that we started the catastrophe, that is the least we can do!
*night (bless the doggies)
Yes agree.
Various arab countries have ample forces which yet again don’t appear to have any intension of becoming involved.
Should we get involved if Russia push further in Ukraine ? A range of European countries want nothing to do with a military response.
Yet we almost as a reflex reaction are off and running and involved – yet again in Iraq etc.
Its got nothing to do with us and we should butt out – OR – butt into everything that comes along – Africa, Central America and who wants that. The US is in that situation – continuous war.
If there is no domestic terrorism event shortly it will add to the stench of this whole matter.
Going off to war seems to have been reduced to a routine matter like blowing your nose, but that won’t reduce the consequences.
And most people just accept it.
Shorten might be trying to avoid a wedge but he could have laid out caveats. Nada.
Cutting everything to the bone at home and a blank cheque for war.
Its crap.
Utter crap.
Jackol
It’s the potential numbers of deaths from genocide that concerns me. About 500,000 are at risk from ISIS.
120,000 dead in Iraq in 12 years, whereas in Rwanda that many died in some weeks, and 800,000 died in three months.
The speed of genocide is the frightening thing.
Only if the bull could be useful in some way DN.
I wouldn’t trust the bull’s judgement on that, david.
Abbott and Shorten need to be clear what is intended. Humanitarian assistance which can include strikes to stop ISIL killing fleeing minorities is one thing.
But lets be clear – Kerry and Obama have laid out a strategy which includes supporting the so called Free Syrian Army to overthrow Assad. Given that that strategy led directly to the spread of ISIL and al Nousra type forces in Syria (funded by our friends in Saudi Arabia, Quatar and Turkey and probably UAE) there is a clear need to draw the line very carefully around what Australia govt or Labor supports.
Diog – there aren’t that many IS people. Rwanda required basically an entire population to turn to killing. IS has done terrible things, but their large scale impact hasn’t been so great yet.
And the most damning consideration from my point of view is the fact that the resources in terms of weapons and money that IS accrue is generally resources that were supposed to be going to the Iraqi military or other US sponsored forces.
Putting more weapons into the area is just providing more opportunity for IS to better arm itself.
We can’t impose stability on the region.
We can’t choose which bad guys are in control.
We can only make the situation worse by intervening militarily. In my opinion.
Jackol
There are about 30,000 members of ISIS.
I’ve seen estimates that only 10,000 Hutus actually performed the massacres in Rwanda.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/worldisnotenough/2014/09/14/election-preview-sweden/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29195683
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/14/sweden-election-feminists-greens-stefan-lofvan-social-democrats
http://www.val.se/val_rkl_2014/
official figures to come?
fwiw, personally-speaking, I’m against any military deployment or air-borne strikes. I think they will not merely be ineffectual, they will most likely only make things even worse.
I also think the West is doing exactly what ISIL have been trying to provoke them to do. More blood will be shed and more hate aroused; more fighters recruited and more ritual killing will result. This is the logic of the situation and will lead to deeper and more widespread conflict.
But I also think that Abbott has the initiative. Labor have to avoid the political trap that Abbott has tried to set for them. This is going to be a very protracted affair…and Labor must be cautious. Abbott is a a far more dangerous opponent than ISIL….
http://www.juancole.com/2014/09/decline-resources-against.html
All Shorten had to say was:
Simple.
Thanks for the link Briefly. The Arab allies of the USA will fight to the last US soldier against ISIL and Assad. And keep funding ISIL. Turkey wont even let US planes use their bases to strike ISIL in northern Iraq. What a mess.
briefly
I have no problem with Mr Shorten limiting political damage as long as its not at the expense of democracy and the national interest.
That might mean raising some questions in the public discourse.
For example passing the metadata legislation is one such area where Labor should stand up.
ICYMI on Insiders Senator Brandis made it clear that metadata legislation would be introduced while their fear of terror campaign was happening.
1700
Communist preferences getting Killen over the Line is a apparently a myth. Most of the Communist preferences went to the ALP, over a quarter went to the DLP and 13% went to the Liberals when the Communist preferences were distributed. There was a small drift to Killen but is was cancelled out by the drift from the QLP (DLP) to the ALP. I do not know how the Communist preferences that flowed to the QLP divided after the QLP were distributed. Presumably they were mostly protest votes and thus went mostly to the then opposition ALP but if they had all or mostly gone to the Liberals then Killen would have won on stray Communist preferences.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/1961/1961repsqld.txt
Also while the HoR would have been 61-61, that only covers the seats representing the states and the ALP won the seats representing the territories, that only voted of territory specific bills, and thus may have been able to el.ect one of the territory MPs as the Speaker and gain a majority that way.
The ISIL are stuck in the Sunni triangle, with no real prospect now of advancing on Kurdistan or the Shia areas of Iraq.
They walked into a vacuum there, and with more than enough local support.
Now the urds have ahlted them, only real prospect i see of a genocide at this point is if they overthrow Assad – then Syrian minorities are really for it.
Thats why Im very uncomfortable with Obama’s strategy in Syria.
lefty e
I think President Obama is hoping that Iraq will prevent the Syrian thing. The whole lets not bomb civilian areas
Fran @1721: the Opposition remains sceptical that Australian military involvement can advance any legitimate human interest in the region. The government presumably believes this is possible. We hope they are right. Let us see.
I think that’s about right. One could probably add ‘or any legitimate Australian interest’. There’s also the question of an ‘exit strategy’. We didn’t have one last time.
It’s a mess. Who knows what Western intervention, however well intentioned, will accomplish, or what unintended consequences could follow.
Well I didn’t watch Insiders this morning, but in any case, wouldn’t have need to watch it to know that the govt would attempt to sneak stuff through under the radar while everyone’s focus is what’s happening in the Middle East. This was always going to happen.
Another point in Mr Shorten’s apparent gung ho support. He would know exactly what America has or has not asked Australia to do.
As we know thanks to Vietnam that airpower alone cannot win ears and we know the last thing President Obama wants is a war. This could be the strategy you have when you want to under cut the hawks of war.
@confessions/1729
http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2014/s4087226.htm
“Lastly, later in the year, I will introduce legislation to mandate the retention of metadata and that scheme is being discussed by ASIO and the telcos and the ISPs at the moment.”
Cloak and Dagger stuff, slide it while the public is busy with sliding economy and war on ISIS.
Good,night
GG 1652
Actually, Crean’s reaction to the Iraq War gave him the only real significant boost in an otherwise forgettable tenure as leader.
And I would say that Latham’s opposition to that war was not his problem either.
However, I would advise that comparing this conflict, politically, with the Iraq War of 2003 is a bit ill-advised. Public sentiment is different this time, as is the attitude of the international arena.
Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #Aborigines, Visitation by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1D7vcB2
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/police-close-in-on-leighton-bribery-allegations-20140914-10gpgt.html guess there will be a royal commission called bt Tony Abbott :devil:
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Here we go again – thanks Tone.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-declares-war-on-the-islamic-state-death-cult-20140914-3fol3.html
Paul McGeough – Fools rush in as Abbott joins a war without definition. Must be a Liberal thing.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/fools-rush-in-tony-abbott-joins-a-war-without-definition-20140914-10gtib.html
Bob Ellis comes in behind McGeough’s piece.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/09/14/gallipoli-fever/
Here’s what Laura Tingle says about it.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/destiny_with_the_unknown_in_another_wxxuFZpMPbGFaXhkWjIIdP
“Where will it end?” asks Katharine Murphy.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/14/fight-against-isis-justified-where-end
And the heavy cost our forces might pay for this incursion.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/australian-forces-could-face-heavy-burden-in-iraq-20140914-10gufa.html
The Middle East – a graveyard for good intentions.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/barack-obamas-iraq-plan-is-sound-but-the-middle-east-is-a-graveyard-for-good-intentions-20140912-10fyce.html
ASIC has its sights set on Leighton. Go for it
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/police-close-in-on-leighton-bribery-allegations-20140914-10gpgt.html
ICAC spawns a parliamentary inquiry into Newcastle and Hunter planning issues. But it’s gong to be chaired by Fred Bloody Nile!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parliamentary-inquiry-into-newcastle-and-hunter-planning-decisions-set-to-follow-icac-probe-20140914-10gq5e.html
Lenore Taylor on the disturbing hole in Australians’ grasp of politics.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/13/who-is-warren-truss-poll-reveals-holes-in-australians-grasp-of-politics
Section 2 . . .
John Pilger on Gaza.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/09/14/breaking-last-taboo-gaza-and-threat-world-war
According to Hockey we don’t have a revenue problem. Pg’s arse we don’t!
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/9/12/national-affairs/crunch-time-high-maintenance-australia
A lovely article on the great speeches made in Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gough-whitlam-paul-keating-and-robert-menzies-our-holy-trinity-of-speakers-20140912-10fxzc.html
Abbott’s attention may be divided during his week up North.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-attention-may-be-a-little-divided-during-his-week-in-arnhem-land-20140914-10gsyb.html
Gas depreciation formula a licence to print money. This needs urgent attention. It has a far, far greater effect than the carbon price ever did.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/gas-industrys-depreciation-formula-a-licence-to-print-money-20140914-10gtrm.html
Be alarmed!!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/federal-push-to-make-victorian-schools-independent-labelled-privatisation-20140913-10gj7j.html
A school principal compares her role to that of Morrison in regards to the protection of children.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/morally-and-legally-its-a-principals-role-to-protect-children-20140912-10fdgk.html
A good article from Hugh White on defence planning assumptions.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/making-better-defence-policy-starts-with-knowing-what-we-want-20140912-10ecch.html
Kathy Jackson and Mike Smith. What a lovely pair!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/an-unlikely-union-kathy-jackson-and-the-controversial-shock-jock-by-her-side-20140912-10g2a0.html
Section 3 . . .
Cathy Wilcox on the futility of Iraqi incursions.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
Pat Campbell – the IS bucket challenge.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
Ron Tandberg is sick of Abbott by the look of it.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe has out FA-18s in interesting livery.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/competitive-federalism-gets-you-what-you-pay-for-20140912-10fzzd.html#ixzz3DKIfhRsr
Good Morning
@AP: BREAKING: Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt concedes election defeat, says he will step down.
Someone was assassinated and we had the first World War?
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/fools-rush-in-tony-abbott-joins-a-war-without-definition-20140914-10gtib.html#ixzz3DKNBR4CW
24 News Breakfast did their usual reading out of tweets after talking to Greg Barton. All were anti war.
“@latikambourke: PM Abbott now on ABC ‘it’s a clear and achievable objective’. @smh”
“@latikambourke: PM Abbott – if the Iraqis can provide ‘reasonable’ protection and security of their towns that will be a success. @smh”
Trioli challenges Abbott. Abbott responds with I am entitled to say my piece.
Trioli “That wasn’t the question I asked you”.
Trioli now using Andrew Bolt against Abbott in questions about Recognition referendum
I am happy with Trioli in that interview. At least a challenge to Abbott on such an important subject.
I hope other journalists take note.
@drewsheldrick: THREAT LEVEL: Metamucil Mauve
Police raid grandmother’s house to confiscate anti G20 stickers http://t.co/34dGCd5nlE
@digitaltasmania: Backflip complete. #Tasmania won’t get the #NBN mostly by Fibre as planned and promised by the Fed Gov. #PoliTas http://t.co/HdBsygQSmJ
Nhulunbuy — really? A remote aboriginal community?
Airstrip with regular Qantas flights, two motels, a Woolworths and high school.
And this what we get from the media
“PRIME Minister Tony Abbott has arrived in deepest Arnhem Land on an…”
Deepest Arnhem Land…give me a break, trying to make it sound like deepest dark Africa…..living in a tent…yeah right
there’s a frigging hospital and a bakery…hardly the rough living of a remote community that I have spent time at