BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 … 22 23 24

  1. At an early gay mardi gras in Sydney (83?) I recall seeing Fred Niles head on a platter held high by a gaggle of jiving half naked boys, the crowd roared!

  4. CTaR1

    From your link:

    [Locals are worried as the Afghan army has been carrying out an offensive against the armed group in the past several weeks to stop their advance.

    “Yesterday,” said a young mother living in Kunduz city, “it was even closer.”]

    Afghan Army advancing rearwards. Not easy.

  5. Cracking game about to kick off Bludgers.

    I backed Newcastle earlier, have the live treble with Newcastle-Canberra-Storm going and have backed the Storm.

    Got to get out after Thursday night.

    Can Diogs tip a winner? That’s the danger 😎

  7. Taking everything into account, when Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd said of our war in Afghanistan said it was all about ‘Running the course’ they probably meant, ‘Running of course’.

    I do have a solution for the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. It is amazing that no-one has put it all together. But is soooooo obvious:

    Put Abbott into his stunt mine clearance suit, give him his stun fifty cal, strap him to the bonnet of a Hummer, and encourage him to yell ‘Shit Happens!’ as they drive him towards the Taliban.

    Problem fixed.

  9. [Dunno, but according to someone on twitter, one of the speakers at the WCF declared that 90% of world poverty was caused by a breakdown in the family unit.]

    One could imagine that a certain % especially in western countries probably is. In other countries, the relationship between poverty and the breakdown in the family unit would probably be caused by the death or incapacity of the chief breadwinner. It would be both fascinating and nauseating to be a fly on the wall and listen to the coffee break conversations that these people would have.

  12. [It would be both fascinating and nauseating to be a fly on the wall and listen to the coffee break conversations that these people would have.]

    At the conference I mean …

  13. CTaR1

    Vietnam?

    [Bw – It’s just doing Vietnam again.]

    I give it, say, twenty years and we will be doing joint military exercises with the Taliban Gubbies… They will be wanting to protect themselves from the tender mercies of Iran and Pakistan. Win Win. You know it makes sense.

    It worked for Vietnam.

  15. Just saw David Cameron issuing grave warning.

    OH PLEASE… who’s going to point out the US & UK were effectively supprorting ISIS in Syria till 10 minutes ago (and for all we know, arming or training them).

    The permanent idiocy of the Anglophone centre right – how many times can the Middle East blowback in their stupid faces?

  16. [Dunno, but according to someone on twitter, one of the speakers at the WCF declared that 90% of world poverty was caused by a breakdown in the family unit.]

    The guy stated there were 3 things needed to avoid poverty. Be Married, have a family and now for the doozy, Have a College Education.

    Well no shit sherlock.

  17. Ctar1

    I didn’t read all the link but it sounds that it would be worth turning just to get some of that lovely subsidy money!!

  18. [and now for the doozy, Have a College Education.]

    And with Christopher Pyne’s plans you can be gauranteed poverty through not being able to afford one or needing to spend so much to pay for one.

  21. [The guy stated there were 3 things needed to avoid poverty. Be Married, have a family and now for the doozy, Have a College Education.]

    Well I’m not married, nor do I have kids. I do have tertiary education, but most importantly I have a job, which I’d have thought was way more critical an anti poverty strategy than being married – which I’m not.

  24. Confessions

    I think a lot of these types of truisms come out of studies of the US black community where there are very high levels of single parent families, child poverty, poor educational attainment and unemployment. There is quite a stark contrast between these people and where couples are married – the stable relationship of marriage ensuring stability and maintaining of employment etc. I have read several such articles in the Economist over the years.

  26. bbp:

    You are probably right there, as well as coming off the homespun longing for a simpler, less complicated life where the family unit was husband at work full time and mum at home raising the kids. In that scenario, a scenario where women didn’t enjoy equal entitlements to workforce participation, it’s easy to see how divorce or loss of the primary breadwinner could spiral a woman into poverty.

  27. confessions

    [Dunno, but according to someone on twitter, one of the speakers at the WCF declared that 90% of world poverty was caused by a breakdown in the family unit.]

    Interesting. I would think poverty in third world countries usually result in families with large number of children.

  29. Interesting. I would think poverty in third world countries usually result in families with large number of children.

    along with droughts, wars, genocide, corrupt governments…

  30. Raaraa:

    For me it all comes back to how women are regarded in those countries. You want to deny women access to workforce participation, to education, to control their own fertility, enforce their dependence upon a male breadwinner for the household, then in my view you own the consequences when the marriage turns to shit for her in a bad way, or breaks up altogether. Regardless of whether you own the consequences by way of pastoral advocacy, or by legislative decision-making. .

    But in terms of WCF, this is a religious fundie conference, so it shouldn’t surprise that a wistful longing for a bygone era when women were tolerated but not heard in the public sphere, is the kind of premised nonsense emanating from it.

  31. [along with droughts, wars, genocide, corrupt governments…]

    as well as lack of access to education, food, capital especially for girls and women.

  32. [But in terms of WCF, this is a religious fundie conference, so it shouldn’t surprise that a wistful longing for a bygone era when women were tolerated but not heard in the public sphere, is the kind of premised nonsense emanating from it.]

    One of the ironies is that at this sort of conference it is women who are the most strident advocates for this point of view .. but to get to this position of speaking and advocacy they are actually spending a lot of time out of the home and away from their families. Invariably they are well enough to be supported by their husband who earns enough for them to gallivant around. Probably also has a housekeeper at home to keep the home front all ship shape. On the other hand, undertaking some sort of advocacy (even if you disagree with it) is probably more worthwhile than endless shopping or getting it off with the pool boy.

  33. Interesting. I would think poverty in third world countries usually result in families with large number of children.

    along with droughts, wars, genocide, corrupt governments…

    as well as lack of access to education, food, capital especially for girls and women.

    The Catholic Church has not helped with condemning as “evil” the use of condoms to control STD and for birth control

  34. AussieAchmed

    Was gobsmacked a few years back to hear a Nigerian Bishop say it was preferable that people get AIDs than they use condoms.

  36. My 12 year old son just saw the Fred Nile “one side is God and the other the devil” and giggled and said “Does that mean I’m with the Devil?”

  37. [On the other hand, undertaking some sort of advocacy (even if you disagree with it) is probably more worthwhile than endless shopping or getting it off with the pool boy.]

    Well, each to their own.

    But in my view, any kind of pastoral advocacy that seeks to subjugate women’s equality will always rank way, way, way below a woman’s choice to shop, or a woman’s choice to have extramarital affairs.

  38. One of the defining characteristics of American religious conservatives seems to be their propensity for getting busted with rent boys. Given the large number attending this World Congress thing, the probability of a bust on Australian soil has to be pretty high.

  40. [ My 12 year old son just saw the Fred Nile “one side is God and the other the devil” and giggled and said “Does that mean I’m with the Devil?” ]
    Did you know that if you completely stopped supporting that child your budget would improve you would have a bigger surplus and god would still love you?

  41. [Did you know that if you completely stopped supporting that child your budget would improve you would have a bigger surplus and god would still love you ]

    Plus he still cannot vote.

  42. confessions

    [For me it all comes back to how women are regarded in those countries. You want to deny women access to workforce participation, to education, to control their own fertility, enforce their dependence upon a male breadwinner for the household, then in my view you own the consequences when the marriage turns to shit for her in a bad way, or breaks up altogether. Regardless of whether you own the consequences by way of pastoral advocacy, or by legislative decision-making. .]

    I cannot speak for all third world countries or defend their cultural practices but in some countries, both parents have to participate in the workforce. It’s not about choice, it’s about survival.

    Imagine a 19th century mentality where the need for more children comes from the need for more hands for labour.

    Even if they wanted to make use of family planning, contraceptives were inaccessible and unaffordable.

    Of course, it doesn’t help if the local religion stops the supply of contraceptives too.

  43. Zoomster

    [And yet the men speaking out number the women…]

    You know you just can’t trust women. Look at Eve and how she brought down Adam.

    God would have been better creating Adam and Steve. 😉

  45. One of the Court Loonies is head speaker at a talking in tongues fest in WA, according to an advert in the local community TV station.

    I wonder which politicians will be attending?

  46. Looked at one way, many of the world’s religions appear to be a vast machination to guide reproduction in whatever society they operate. The purpose is to ensure that it benefits that society’s elites (at least the males), keep control out of the hands of those the elites don’t want to have a say (e.g. women) and if course ensure that the elite males’ high participation in the process.

  47. paaptsef

    The Greens can only go backwards under Christine Milne. How many here are prepared to admit it?

    Cameron ‘overrated’ Smith throws a shocker from the scrum to lose the Storm the game and my Knights money with it!

    The best tipster I’ve ever seen – Dr Diogs.

    Swans finish season first I see…

Comments Page 23 of 24
1 … 22 23 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *