ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. David Marr was wrong on the Drum tonight. He said the lesson of Hewson’s Fightback was to not release your policies too early.

    He is wrong because the public rejected unfairness. If the reforms had been fair the early release would have made Hewson unassailable.

    Just like now early or late if its a turd the public will reject it.

  2. Did the Oz media almost entirely miss the fact that the Pan-Pac open water swimming event was cancelled on the Gold Coast because the venue and the backup venue had pollution levels that could endanger athletes?

    The event will be held in Hawaii instead. How embarrassing (if people knew about it).

  3. guytaur

    It wasn’t only that. Hewson was confused over explaining the detail. Now who else do we know who can’t get their story straight on the policies – far worse than Hewson.

  4. Looks like a supporter for Mathias, or perhaps one of the many dodgy twitter accounts:

    Retweeted by Mathias Cormann
    jill #winkersunite ‏@SenateSabotaged 2h

    @MathiasCormann It is confusing for Bill. He thinks they delivered a surplus. Hard to see a problem after that. LOL

  5. Typical of comments on #winkersunite

    jill #winkersunite‏@SenateSabotaged ·
    Axing TOXIC Co2 TAX
    & Stopping DEAD BABIES being scooped from the Ocean
    Still MORE than Labor did in 6 yrs #pmagenda #Enoughforme #Auspol


    I think #winkersunite is misspelt. There should be an “a” in there, and I don’t mean #winkersunate

  6. Qanda tonight

    Gareth Evans – Former Australian Foreign Minister
    Paul Kelly – Editor-at-large The Australian
    Elizabeth Pisani – Author and Indonesia commentator
    Tasneem Chopra – Chair, Australian Muslim Women’s Centre for Human Rights
    Ali Alizadeh – Iranian-Australian author and academic

  7. guytaur

    [He is wrong because the public rejected unfairness]
    Another lesson of Fightback was not to let Tony Abbott help write your policy.

  8. lizzie

    My condolences on your loss last month. I would have written at the time but was myself reeling from a colleague’s death.

    Reading “The Age” obituary Ken sounds like a remarkable guy and a real scientific “polymath”. His Honorary M.Sc. was clearly well-deserved.

    I recall you writing about what a character he was – I wonder if he ever caught up with ‘Olsen’s Standard Book of British Birds’ in Monty Python (originally in the 1948 Show)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p62uutgNN4c

  9. Lizzie, check out the arts section Arts and Society section of the online Age. Under the heading ‘Passionate naturalist dedicated to sharing his knowledge’.

  10. lizzie@1100

    bemused

    Why should an iPad version be different from my computer subscription version? This is crazy.

    My iPad version is a complete facsimile of the dead tree version. I can email it to you but it only sends the text and not the photo.

    Got to go now – let me know later if you want it.

  11. Rocket

    Thank you. It’s been a heavy few weeks. His memorial is on Friday so I’ve been a bit busy organizing it. So many kind condolences received.

  12. #ABC Brisbane
    Abbott admitted this morning that Wayne Swan’s GFC stimulus package was NECESSARY.

    He opposed it totally in Opposition.

    Talk about mixed messages….all Coalition messages been through the blender

  13. AussieAchmed

    [$10 million to Manly Rugby Club, $5 million to the Broncos.

    Because we have a budget emergency]
    CanJoh’s effort during his budget emergency 🙂

    [Qld govt funds goat races

    The funding comes after the Queensland government’s commission of audit into the state’s finances last month revealed the state’s debt was heading for $100 billion by 2018/19 unless savings were made.

    The Premier’s Literary Awards became the government’s first financial victim, saving the state $245,000 after they were cut]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/qld-govt-funds-goat-races/story-fnejo58q-1226421866025?nk=c4e57a002325d9718f6dc062dc58f0f7

    The funding comes after the Queensland government’s commission of audit into the state’s finances last month revealed the state’s debt was heading for $100 billion by 2018/19 unless savings were made.

    The Premier’s Literary Awards became the government’s first financial victim, saving the state $245,000 after they were cut

  14. A failed investment company part-owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp received a second taxpayer-funded grant for an environmental project that it never completed, the Federal Environment Department says.

    The department has confirmed it intends to use “legal mechanisms” or other means to recover the $134,904 payment made in 2012 to RM Williams Agricultural Holdings, which collapsed last year owing tens of millions to investors.

    The payment came shortly after the company was given $9.1 million in taxpayers’ money to buy a cattle station that was supposed to become the world’s largest carbon farm and make News Corp carbon neutral.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/failed-news-corp-carbon-venture-extracted-a-second-government-grant-20140810-zy0cs.html#ixzz3BOiQVt3d

  15. When the government puts the $9b of super tax concessions – overwhelmingly benefiting high income earners – on the table we might start listening to the ‘budget emergency’ guff. Until then it’s just their choices to shift resources from the poor to the rich.

  16. Super tax concessions cost about $30 billion per annum, rapidly escalating. We are close to or have already reached the point where it would be cheaoer to simply pay everyone over 65 the aged pension. Simply applying income tax to the income component of super pensions (but not the return of capital) would be a huge saving. That is what we did prior to 2007.

    We could also wind back other Howard-era changes including the private health insurance rebate, the CGT discount and the Howard model for funding private schools before we need to even think of hitting low income earners.

  17. If, following Minister Joyce, we are engaged tonight in a search for an appropriate disease as a metaphor for the budget, could I nominate the one mentioned by the late Lowell Thomas in a broadcast: “a fartal hate attack”.

  18. Wow a Labor government gave MurdochInc a grant and a Coalition government is taking action to recover it. Priceless.

    I wonder if Murdoch saw that coming during his campaign to be President of Australia

  19. PeeBee@1113

    Lizzie, check out the arts section Arts and Society section of the online Age. Under the heading ‘Passionate naturalist dedicated to sharing his knowledge’.

    I couldn’t even find an ‘Arts and Society’ section.

  20. Retweeted by Kevin Bonham
    Stephen Murray ‏@smurray38 8m

    Tomorrow’s #newspoll 2PP: ALP 51 Coalition 49 Primary ALP 34 (0) L/NP 40 (0) Grns 11 (-2) Others (incl PUP) 15 (+2) #qanda #auspol

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