Seat of the week: Jagajaga

Covering the eastern reaches of Melbourne, the electorate of Jagajaga has provided a reasonably secure electoral base for Jenny Macklin’s parliamentary career since 1996.

Jenny Macklin’s electorate of Jagajaga was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, and covers suburbs in north-eastern Melbourne from Heidelberg and Ivanhoe out to North Warrandyte in the east. Its present area was mostly in the electorate of Bourke from federation until 1926, which accounted for northern Melbourne including Brunswick and Reservoir; Flinders and Indi from 1922 to 1937, which respectively covered its western suburban and eastern interior regions; Deakin from its recreation in 1937 until 1955, at which time Ivanhoe was absorbed by Batman; and Diamond Valley in its eastern parts from 1969 to 1984. When created in 1984, Jagajaga extended north to Bundoora and had the Yarra River as its eastern boundary, with Eltham and its surrounds accommodated by Casey and Menzies. Its present configuration was largely adopted at the redistribution which took effect at the 1996 election.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party booth majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Jagajaga was in part the successor to abolished Diamond Valley, although that seat’s extension into rural areas further to the north made it a marginal seat that went with the government of the day at each election during an existence that ran from 1969 to 1984. Diamond Valley was won narrowly for Labor in 1983 by Peter Staples at the expense of Liberal incumbent Neil Brown, who would return to parliament in 1984 as member for Menzies and later became deputy Liberal leader (and was more recently a contentious appointment to the panel that appoints ABC board directors). Staples secured the considerably more accommodating electoral territory of Jagajaga in 1984, which had a notional Labor margin of 8.4%, and retained the seat until his retirement in 1996, in which time his closest shave was a 2.6% winning margin amid the Victorian anti-Labor backlash of 1990.

Staples was succeeded by Jenny Macklin, a former researcher and state ministerial staffer and member of the Socialist Left. Macklin retained the seat by 2.7% on her electoral debut and secured slightly stronger margins over the the next three elections. After the 2001 election she rose to the position of deputy leader, a position she maintained until Kim Beazley was deposed by Kevin Rudd in December 2006, at which point she made way for Julia Gillard. Macklin also exchanged her education portfolio for family and community services and indigenous affairs, which retained without interruption throughout the six-year saga of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government. The only change to her workload in government was an exchange of housing for disability reform in December 2011. This continuity has been maintained in opposition, albeit that she relinquished indigenous affairs and families and community services was rebadged as families and payments. In the meantime, Macklin secured her hold on Jagajaga with strong successive swings in 2007 and 2010, respectively pushing her margin out to 9.0% and 11.5%, before a forceful 8.1% swing to the Liberals in 2013 pared it back to 3.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,057 comments on “Seat of the week: Jagajaga”

Comments Page 17 of 22
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  4. ‘kinetically’ – Using this word (more than 4 letters, I note) just means you organise a hammering (bombs, drones, etc.) to their next-door neighbours.

    They, unable to strike back at the initiators, will take it out on the closeby people as was intended at planning stage.

    Being US Secretary of State (and having a ‘big and very strange hair’ thing going) is of immense help in encouraging the little people on this sort of stuff.

  8. Apologies if already posted

    [Finding No. 5729 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of August 2/3 & 9/10, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,207 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% did not name a party.
    The ALP has increased its support to 56% (up 1.5%) over the L-NP (44%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after last week’s ABS unemployment figures showed Australian unemployment rising to a 17 year high of 789,000 (6.4%) and the Government set to impose additional requirements on Australians collecting unemployment benefits.

    This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,207 Australian electors aged 18+. Despite gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP fell to 38% (down 1% over the past fortnight) whilst the L-NP primary also fell, to 37.5% (down 0.5%) according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends – August 2/3 & 9/10, 2014.

    Support rose slightly for all minor parties this week. The Greens rose to 11% (up 0.5%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) rose 0.5% to 5.5% and Independents/ Others rose 0.5% to 8%.

    Support for the PUP is highest in the three states which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (10.5%), Tasmania (8.5%) and Western Australia (5%). Support for PUP is lower in New South Wales (3.5%), Victoria (3.5%) and South Australia (4.5%).]

  11. [Speaking of which, here’s my paywalled thoughts on the subject in today’s Crikey.]

    I’m guessing Crikey knows that if you keep doing that I’m going to have to pay! A very cunning plan.

  13. [Chris Judd is a football player. Rebecca Twigley is his wife.]

    Isn’t she a tv personality as well? All I remember is that dress back when Chris was an eagle before he showed that when the going gets tough he runs away to Melbourne.

  14. Interesting polling of late.

    It seems the Govts only hope for a circuit breaker is a major budget overhaul.

    Now it’s hard to see Mr Hockey ever conceding to such a shift, so it will be a test of how badly the PM wants to remain PM for another term.

    Will there be a fight to the death type scenario develop, politically speaking ?

  15. BK

    Note the role of the Congregation of Rome. The RC would love to have the CoR’s documents but Pope Francis has denied the RC’s request.

    No need to wonder why. The Vatican Protection Racket is alive and well.

  17. Hi all

    My 2bobs worth re the discussion from bemused ,bushfire and william

    i’m always up for a good government ( wag the dog movie)on how to do propaganda.
    while the fighting continues,ukraine.usa and russia try to out do each other in the propaganda stakes.

    all have vested interests in the out come,if this so called land to air missle was launched the usa’s satillites would have lit up like a christmas tree and they would have tracked it from launch.

    why are they so silent. this is far greater than the 300 souls on the plane
    ukraine was struggling ,usa didn’t want to get involved without cause, someone shoots down a plane and the whole world now has an skin in the game.

    Propaganda’s the only thing that all sides are keen to take part in.
    my 2bobs worth the truth is out there ,it’s just a matter of who’s truth it is

  18. I note that someone has got to Abbott and told him ‘Rutte’ not this morning’s ‘Rooter’.

    Imagine if Gillard had made that blooper?

    The MSM has missed this one entirely.

  22. WWP

    The gist of William’s article is that less & less liberal voters think abortion is bad each year. I mean really.

  23. Someone Judd and someone Quigley? Am I supposed to know them? Are they vital to the health of the planet, or do they take up memory space in the brain that could better be used for thinking about drying paint?

  24. William

    [ why are they so silent.

    Sydney Morning Herald: “MH17: US satellites tracked missile’s path to airliner”.]

    Yeah, but apart from having it reported in every single media outlet in the world….

  25. [Sydney Morning Herald: “MH17: US satellites tracked missile’s path to airliner”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-us-satellites-tracked-missiles-path-to-airliner-20140718-zulxh.html#ixzz3A4T7UUvy ]

    Exactly what I meant about possible disinformation. An early report, without corroboration in the MSM. Yawn.

    Colin Powell told the assembled United Nations that they had intercepted phone calls between Mustafa and Achmed chatting conspiratorily about “the stuff” (obvious meaning: tanks full of deadly “nerve gas” or “botulism” or similar). They even played the tapes. They had drawings, maps, satellite photos etc. etc. All bullshit. There were no weapons of mass destruction.

    When the investigators report back with credible evidence, properly analyzed, peer-reviewed, I’ll start taking notice.

  27. [I note that someone has got to Abbott and told him ‘Rutte’ not this morning’s ‘Rooter’.]

    Just had a mental image of Abbott, Pyne, Hockey and Cormann all sat in someone’s office chuffing a stoagie and quaffing expensive bottles of red wine, all guffawing and smirking over the Dutch guy called ‘Rooter’.

  29. william

    re the article my point would be who released the news re missile america,can you really trust them to release the truth the whole truth and what they want you to believe.

    it’s not like they only ever tell the truth cough cough

    how many wars have they been in Bay of Pigs makes good reading.
    olle north had a story to tell, Nixon a truth teller
    the list is endless. how many secrets from aasange and the new story teller on the block ,i think he’s in russia

    it’s all just propaganda so who do we all believe

  30. One last comment for today: Why do we have to have a month of Uhlmann before Sales comes back? It makes the loss of Ferguson all the more painful.

  31. William Bowe@820

    all have vested interests in the out come,if this so called land to air missle was launched the usa’s satillites would have lit up like a christmas tree and they would have tracked it from launch.

    why are they so silent.


    Sydney Morning Herald: “MH17: US satellites tracked missile’s path to airliner”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-us-satellites-tracked-missiles-path-to-airliner-20140718-zulxh.html#ixzz3A4T7UUvy

    That is a speculative report by a couple of reporters. e.g.
    [“They would have known exactly where it was launched, where it was headed, and the rate at which it was traveling,” Ellison said.
    Separately, the US operates sensitive listening satellites that can capture a wide range of electronic emissions from foreign nations’ defence systems, allowing analysts to determine the origin of the signals and the type weapon that was used.
    For instance, the Buk missile uses a strong radar search and tracking system to find its targets and then helps guide a missile to the target. At some point in its flight, the missile begins to use its own radar system, emitting a unique signal.
    The combination of unique signals over a period of seconds or minutes would allow a US satellite to triangulate the point of launch and track the trajectory of the missile.”]

    I await the US presenting its evidence.

  33. Looks like News Ltd is going to pull the plug on its APC membership.

    Fits with Turnbull hinting at removing all media ownership rules.

  36. [That is a speculative report by a couple of reporters.]

    Okay, so I should have linked to ” rel=”nofollow”>this instead. If you want to argue we shouldn’t accept this until it’s independently corroborated by the investigation, fine (although when the investigation confirms what every genuine authority on these matters has already worked out, we will then be made to suffer the old “ah, so they’ve gotten to them too” routine). However, Thorn Rick asserted that the US had been “silent” about its satellite tracking, which plainly it had not.

  37. [Those poll numbers explain why Abetz should have avoided The Project.]

    ‘The’ Project. Eric space Abetz was just there to check out if they had any artwork worth stealing or burning in the Street.

  38. William Bowe@836

    That is a speculative report by a couple of reporters.


    Okay, so I should have linked to ” rel=”nofollow”>this instead. If you want to argue we shouldn’t accept this until it’s independently corroborated by the investigation, fine (although when the investigation confirms what every genuine authority on these matters has already worked out, we will then be made to suffer the old “ah, so they’ve gotten to them too” routine). However, Thorn Rick asserted that the US had been “silent” about its satellite tracking, which plainly it had not.

    That didn’t look like an official US statement to me.

    It may turn out to be perfectly correct, but I have not seen any definitive statement by an official US spokesperson releasing whatever evidence they have.

  39. For people who have an awful lot to say about MH17, I’m constantly amazed that many can’t be bothered following what’s happened or been reported. It’s clearly more about ideology than anything to do with the evidence.

    The US released evidence several weeks ago that a BUK in rebel controlled Ukraine downed the plane.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-discloses-intelligence-on-downing-of-malaysian-jet/2014/07/22/b178fe58-11e1-11e4-98ee-daea85133bc9_story.html

  44. Well everyone knows you can’t trust the ‘experts’, the government, the airline companies,the mainstream media or the investigators.

    Try again, this time present some unbiased sources.

  45. [ One last comment for today: Why do we have to have a month of Uhlmann before Sales comes back? It makes the loss of Ferguson all the more painful. ]

    It will be interesting to see how his rating go.

  46. bemused

    [It may turn out to be perfectly correct, but I have not seen any definitive statement by an official US spokesperson releasing whatever evidence they have.]

    I rest my case

    [The official was one of three senior U.S. intelligence officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity during a briefing arranged for reporters in Washington to provide more detailed information on the assertions made by administration officials in recent days, as well as to rebut Russian claims.]

  47. So now we have definitive evidence the US hasn’t been silent and has put out an official statement.

    Wait for the goal posts to be shifted again.

  49. lizzie:

    Uhlmann was woeful last time he had the 730 host gig. Perhaps he’ll be less try hard this time around.

    But Ferguson was excellent. I was always a fan of Emma Alberici and wanted her to replace Red Kerry, but Ferguson just worked for the 730 format. A way worthy replacement for Red Kerry IMO.

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