Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

A new Galaxy poll reflects last week’s polling in finding the Coalition vote up in the wake of the MH17 disaster, but not by much.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a Galaxy poll, presumably to be published in the News Limited tabloids tomorrow, has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at the last such poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11% and Palmer United down one to 7%.

Other questions posed by the pollsters elicited results that would be highly disappointing to the government under the circumstances. Bill Shorten leads Tony Abbott not only on “best at managing the economy”, by 43% to 36%, but also by 41% to 39% on “trust to stand up for Australia’s overseas interests”. Shorten also maintains a 41-35 lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Daily Telegraph graphic here, giving highest prominence to a question on “who has shown the most leadership after the MH17 disaster” out of Tony Abbott (48%), Barack Obama (17%) and David Cameron (7%), notwithstanding the doubts one might harbour about respondents’ capacity to provide a meaningful answer to such a question. Of more use is a question on whether the Prime Minister should ban Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane, which finds 45% in favour and 36% opposed, and a slightly stronger lean in favour among Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2 (Roy Morgan): This week’s Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, combining the results of face-to-face and SMS surveying from 3296 respondents over the past two weekends, has the Coalition up four points to 38%, but Labor also up half a point to 39%. Palmer United is down from 7.5% to 5%, with the Greens also down a point to 10.5%. Labor is down two points on both respondent-allocated and previous election two-party preferred, its respective leads now at 54.5-45.5 and 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @457 ruawake

    Tasmania is not a mining state.

    He is not looking at all three of the senators only the two from the mining states.

  2. Bias of MSM commentstors causing them to misrepresent history and fail to understand basic parliamentry procedures.

    Latika Bourke claims on twitter that Former PM JG appointed Slipper as speaker.

    Of course, we know that Speakers are elected by parliament, not appointed by the PM.

    Some of us can also remember that this particular Speaker was elected unopposed by a parliament of LNP, ALP, Greens and Independents.

  4. The Associated Press ‏@AP 42s
    BREAKING: International police team abandons effort to reach Ukraine crash site as heavy fighting erupts.

  9. Abetz added that there were “a lot of employment opportunities … that are being undertaken by backpackers and 457 visa holders”.

    So there we have, another brilliant policy from the morons…. race to the bottom,

    Hey you 50 year old unemployed bludger …. Go & pick some fruit…. don’t worry about your home or your family , picking fruit & living in a camp is fun .. you’ll love it & so good for your self esteem.

  10. Seems there is a bit of war of our own between robo polls Reachtel vs UMR.

    ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL 8m

    Another firm tries robo-polling and fails – this time UMR: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/nteuumr-nikolic-trailing-in-bass.html …. Stick with the experienced market leader – @ReachTEL

    ReachTEL ‏@ReachTEL 5m

    UMR gets not-so-prestigious “fishy polling award” from @kevinbonham for their attempt at robopolling. @PollBludger calls it “hard to credit”

  12. [Latika Bourke claims on twitter that Former PM JG appointed Slipper as speaker.

    Of course, we know that Speakers are elected by parliament, not appointed by the PM.

    Some of us can also remember that this particular Speaker was elected unopposed by a parliament of LNP, ALP, Greens and Independents.]

    Latika was never famous for her grasp of facts — sadly, her inaccuracies often favoured the Libs — hence her moniker “Libtika”…

  14. Now that the difficulty of searching the MH17 crash site is sinking in, the current PM is nowhere to be seen, instead leaving the AFP to report what is (or is not) currently happening.

    I think Abbott has garnered about as much political capital as was possible from MH17.

    From here it’s all starting to look a bit strange with 190 people sent to a war zone to determine what?

  15. Now, I wonder whether Kevin Rudd has made himself available for the MH17 investigation? Surely he can solve that. He had the other Ukrainian matter on his radar not that long ago.

  16. Re GG @496: You can check out any time you want. But, you can never leave.

    All too true. I checked out long ago but I still tick the box ‘Catholic’ on the census form.

  18. As an aside, I was watching the BBC documentary on Lance Armstrong “Stop at Nothing”. Lance’s tactics of bullying, unblinking lies, threats and grandiose statements seem very similar to Abbott’s approach.

  22. [Now, I wonder whether Kevin Rudd has made himself available for the MH17 investigation?]

    He was featured in the Sunday papers apparently, but I’ve no idea what for. Perhaps he WAS offering his services to the rescue mission. 🙂

  27. Give Erica Abetz a Persian Cat and he would be the world’s greatest Bond super-villain. I mean, really, the man has it all: metallic voice, fixed stare, dead eyes, evil countenance.

  28. Tony Abbott has this Boys Own desire for justice, and especially righting the wrongs of the Charge of the Light Brigade in Crimea..

    Cannons to the right of them, cannons to the left rode the brave 600….

    When he heard that Putin had annexed Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine was under threat, it was all hands to the War. Huzzah!

    You heard it here first.

  29. Retweeted by Van Badham
    Neil G ‏@Banquozghost 42m

    @LiamNilon @vanbadham 740.000 unemployed, 140,000 available jobs – 29,600,000 applications per month or 211.5 per job,.Welcome to Moron-land

  30. Miss Peg

    I thought you and the Greens would be happy for all the unemployed to work for the dole.

    Think of all the trees they could plant. The Greens would be able to reach their non negotiable of 20% by 2020 no probs 😎

  31. Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Damien Walker ‏@DamienCWalker 57m

    Burnie, Tasmania. Adult population: 16,200 Unemployment rate: 10.5% Job seekers: 1701 40 job applications each = 68,040 enquiries per mth

  32. Centre@530

    Miss Peg

    I thought you and the Greens would be happy for all the unemployed to work for the dole.

    Think of all the trees they could plant. The Greens would be able to reach their non negotiable of 20% by 2020 no probs

    Ahhh good, some comedy relief. 😀

  33. 4C tonight
    [A secret religious cult in Australia exposed. Its leader abused followers while he built a multi-million dollar stash of cash and property. Carol Meldrum-Hanna reports.]
    It is hard to believe there are so many feeble minded people in the world who fall for this rubbish.

  34. 40 job application a month, dam good thing printers are cheap. As your working for the dole your obviously not expected to follow any of the applications up.

  36. frednk@534

    40 job application a month, dam good thing printers are cheap. As your working for the dole your obviously not expected to follow any of the applications up.

    On job sites like SEEK you could easily send out 40 a day. No paper involved, just a large number of electrons inconvenienced.

  37. GG

    [While I bow to the information provided by PBers re Rudd, it’s important to remember that the Catholic Church is like the Hotel California.

    You can check out any time you want. But, you can never leave.]

    Rudd never technically left the Catholic Church.

    I remember him receiving communion at a Catholic church while he was PM, I think when Mary McKillop was beatified. There was some discussion about the theology of it.

  38. [ … Its leader abused followers while he built a multi-million dollar stash of cash and property ….

    It is hard to believe there are so many feeble minded people in the world who fall for this rubbish. ]

    Why on earth would you find this hard to believe?

    Millions of people follow the mainstream churches, which have about the same amount of evidence for their absurd claims, and which are awash with about the same amount of officially sanctioned criminal behavior by their practitioners.

  40. This bit from the above article is interesting

    [The controversy mirrors a debate nearly a decade ago when Jeff Kennett complained he was sent a letter by Cardinal George Pell instructing him not to take communion at the state funeral of prominent Catholic B.A. Santamaria, despite the then Victorian premier’s own shift to Catholicism.]

  41. [It the subject of such a comment were a Muslim (to pick one of a number of potential examples), I don’t think there would be much dispute that the comment would need to be deleted]

    Bollocks.

  42. Looking or applying for 40 jobs a week is laughable!

    Are the Libs trying to say that you can make 40 quality job winning applications a week?

    The unemployed can only spoil their chances of finding suitable jobs by not being selective or properly targeting the jobs they may have a chance of scoring.

    It’s just a disgraceful abuse of the unemployed for Abbott to win a few votes!

  43. Bemused, the only difference between the ‘secret cult’ and the ‘established religions’ is scale. The ridiculous nature of the beliefs is common to both. The proper definition of ‘faith’ is ‘irrational belief.

    cheers,

    MD

  44. [Are the Libs trying to say that you can make 40 quality job winning applications a week?]

    No the liberals don’t do job creation they believe the magic fairies in the market will do it all for them, so they really couldn’t careless if the jobs were there or the applications are quality or not. They are just trying to win votes of people with jobs my making life difficult and unpleasant for the unemployed and completely unendurable for those unemployable.

  47. WeWantPaul@544

    Are the Libs trying to say that you can make 40 quality job winning applications a week?


    No the liberals don’t do job creation they believe the magic fairies in the market will do it all for them, so they really couldn’t careless if the jobs were there or the applications are quality or not. They are just trying to win votes of people with jobs my making life difficult and unpleasant for the unemployed and completely unendurable for those unemployable.

    This absurd policy will simply force people into indiscriminate online applications to satisfy the requirement for applications to be submitted.

  48. [This absurd policy will simply force people into indiscriminate online applications to satisfy the requirement for applications to be submitted.]

    Yes and I feel no sympathy for the businesses who will suffer either they largely support liberals and deserve it. I feel a lot for those who need to do the applications, but a standard CV and a standard cover letter and you can have applied (badly) for 50 jobs on the first day of the month and then spend the rest of the month looking for a real job.

  49. Forcing people to do job searching is nothing to do with that, it’s about the billions of dollars we give to job search providers to do jack all.

  50. Is there a requirement that they be local jobs, it would be hilarious to apply for minimum wage jobs in Tasmania from Perth. If you get an interview cutoff the HR person and ask if they will pay for relocation and establishment costs, and whether or not one gets 2 additional weeks of paid leave with airfares paid to the home state.

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