Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

A new Galaxy poll reflects last week’s polling in finding the Coalition vote up in the wake of the MH17 disaster, but not by much.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a Galaxy poll, presumably to be published in the News Limited tabloids tomorrow, has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at the last such poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11% and Palmer United down one to 7%.

Other questions posed by the pollsters elicited results that would be highly disappointing to the government under the circumstances. Bill Shorten leads Tony Abbott not only on “best at managing the economy”, by 43% to 36%, but also by 41% to 39% on “trust to stand up for Australia’s overseas interests”. Shorten also maintains a 41-35 lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Daily Telegraph graphic here, giving highest prominence to a question on “who has shown the most leadership after the MH17 disaster” out of Tony Abbott (48%), Barack Obama (17%) and David Cameron (7%), notwithstanding the doubts one might harbour about respondents’ capacity to provide a meaningful answer to such a question. Of more use is a question on whether the Prime Minister should ban Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane, which finds 45% in favour and 36% opposed, and a slightly stronger lean in favour among Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2 (Roy Morgan): This week’s Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, combining the results of face-to-face and SMS surveying from 3296 respondents over the past two weekends, has the Coalition up four points to 38%, but Labor also up half a point to 39%. Palmer United is down from 7.5% to 5%, with the Greens also down a point to 10.5%. Labor is down two points on both respondent-allocated and previous election two-party preferred, its respective leads now at 54.5-45.5 and 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Well caught Nemspy …

    I was doing self-parody as I’ve largely sworn off correcting folk as people get offended. That one is so often mixed up though that I couldn’t resist having a laugh at my own expense. I wondered if anyone would notice!

  2. The Liberals should get real?

    Each unemployed individual should be properly assessed of their work skills, education and capabilities.

    The responsibility should THEN lie on the government (through the various employment agencies) to find, recommend, and offer the employer incentives if necessary, to employ an unemployed person.

    If someone becomes long term unemployed, make a further assessment and provide further training or education if necessary.

    Yeah, cheaper to pay them unemployment benefits – but great for winning votes 😉

  3. Hence the additional extra $5 billion dollars going to… you guest it…

    Job search providers.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s4055036.htm

    “NAOMI WOODLEY: The funding will be organised through a system of employment areas. The new model will also include the Government’s significantly expanded work for the dole program, and the expectation that job seekers will apply for up to 40 jobs per month.”

  4. Centre@552

    The Liberals should get real?

    Each unemployed individual should be properly assessed of their work skills, education and capabilities.

    The responsibility should THEN lie on the government (through the various employment agencies) to find, recommend, and offer the employer incentives if necessary, to employ an unemployed person.

    If someone becomes long term unemployed, make a further assessment and provide further training or education if necessary.

    Yeah, cheaper to pay them unemployment benefits – but great for winning votes

    It’s all a Greens plot! LOONs you know. 😛

  5. [KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 8:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Give Erica Abetz a Persian Cat and he would be the world’s greatest Bond super-villain. I mean, really, the man has it all: metallic voice, fixed stare, dead eyes, evil countenance.
    ]

    Yes, there’s no doubt that if he was an actor that’s the kind of role he would get.

  6. p m z

    “A man known for advocating racial profiling is irredeemably human scum?! Never woulda thunk it…”

    Sam Harris, from all his work I’ve seen, heard and read is a thoroughly decent and highly intelligent man who is committed solely to the furverance of public discourse on a range of topics, lots of them controversial. He has a particular viewpoint which he arrives at through fairly meticulous research and argument… he is not afraid to broach these topics (or to change his mind). For this I am thankful he’s around.

    Referring to him as ‘human scum’ is really a bit much, and reflects more on your character than his.

  7. Confessions and Diogenes

    As in all things in life, one’s religious beliefs and practice and their impact on others is a matter of degree. For most, it is a private and personal thing which is not flaunted.

    As to the silly comparison to Keating, perhaps Confessions would care to cite one credible public reference, indeed even one credible public allegation that Keating’s catholicism was a factor in any decisions he made in public life, including as PM.

    And Confessions might also cite what year it was on budget day, that Keating, having attended holy mass, held an informal presser outside the church (and then went to Parliament to lead the launch of such a nonChristian budget).

  8. Darn@555

    KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 8:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Give Erica Abetz a Persian Cat and he would be the world’s greatest Bond super-villain. I mean, really, the man has it all: metallic voice, fixed stare, dead eyes, evil countenance.


    Yes, there’s no doubt that if he was an actor that’s the kind of role he would get.

    The uncle Otto genes dominate. 😀

  9. Bemused

    I’d constantly keep sending job applications to the same employers to give then the shits 😀

    Advice to the unemployed?

    Lie your ass off! If you don’t get the job, go in there personally and abuse the shit out of them in front of everybody 😈

  10. [Referring to him as ‘human scum’ is really a bit much, and reflects more on your character than his.]

    Believing in God makes you a stupid human scum here in PB land, so seems fair thinkers are scum too.

  11. absolutetwaddle
    Posted Monday, July 28, 2014 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
    ….
    He has a particular viewpoint which he arrives at through fairly meticulous research and argument… he is not afraid to broach these topics (or to change his mind). For this I am thankful he’s around.
    ]

    Come on mate try harder; you should have been able to get a “silent majority” in there somewhere.

  12. Centre@559

    Bemused

    I’d constantly keep sending job applications to the same employers to give then the shits

    Advice to the unemployed?

    Lie your ass off! If you don’t get the job, go in there personally and abuse the shit out of them in front of everybody

    One good feature of the online applications is you get an acknowledgement for each one. So you have all the proof you need if ever asked to prove you have applied.

    Yes, send heaps to known Liberal supporters/donors and Libs electorate offices.

  13. Can the unemployed lie to prospective employers?

    Absolutely!

    Did the Monkey :mrgreen: lie to the Australian people to be employed in the job of PM?

    Go out, rig references and b/s up your resume like a beauty 😎

  14. 550

    Do they even have to be in Australia?

    Will New Zealand employers start getting lots of applications from Australia?

  15. [As to the silly comparison to Keating, perhaps Confessions would care to cite one credible public reference, indeed even one credible public allegation that Keating’s catholicism was a factor in any decisions he made in public life, including as PM.
    ]

    Well Keating’s republicanism was thinly disguised Irish Catholic bigotry.

    But it wasn’t a “decision” so much given he just talked about becoming a republic and refusing to fly the national flag… rather than deciding to amend the constitution.

  16. …and think of what we’d have missed if Shakespeare had followed the rules of English in his day, instead of playing around with the language…

  17. [As to the silly comparison to Keating]

    It’s not a silly comparison, but a statement of fact. You over-reached with your ignorant remark that Abbott is somehow unique in having religious beliefs when clearly he is not.

    [And Confessions might also cite what year it was on budget day, that Keating, having attended holy mass, held an informal presser outside the church (and then went to Parliament to lead the launch of such a nonChristian budget).]

    confessions is under no obligation to do any such thing given you started this shit with your ignorant implication that Abbott is somehow Australia’s first religious PM. He is not, as any objective scan of the history books would tell you. So stop moving the goalposts and man up to your comments. If you can’t do that then STFU about your mistake and move on.

  18. frednk

    “Come on mate try harder; you should have been able to get a “silent majority” in there somewhere.”

    I don’t give a shit about the majority. The majority are clearly profoundly stupid.

  19. [Believing in God makes you a stupid human scum here in PB land]

    Goodness, where’s the violin!

    I think you’re over-reaching, and doing it badly.

  20. I think that Keating was “brought up Catholic” but was not a practicing Catholic as an adult. However, I am happy to be corrected.

  21. [He has a particular viewpoint which he arrives at through fairly meticulous research and argument]

    I wouldn’t say his views on profiling muslims at airports is based on meticulous research and argument. Fairly light-weight fluff all told.

  22. Douglas and Milko@571

    I think that Keating was “brought up Catholic” but was not a practicing Catholic as an adult. However, I am happy to be corrected.

    I certainly don’t recall him ever making a big thing of being Catholic.

  23. [But it wasn’t a “decision” so much given he just talked about becoming a republic and refusing to fly the national flag… rather than deciding to amend the constitution.]

    My own assessment of that period is that Keating was trying to set the agenda and bring people with him. Sure he could’ve gone more hairy chested on the issue, but at the time arguably would’ve lost more people to the cause than gained.

    The real momentum was in 2000 or whenever it was. Such a lost opportunity.

  24. […and think of what we’d have missed if Shakespeare had followed the rules of English in his day, instead of playing around with the language…]

    Being forced to read books we didn’t give a shit about, stupid men in bloody togas, and interminable arguments how the world’s going to pot because we don’t read Shakespeare anymore.

  25. Being a particular religion doesn’t make you a religious PM. Keating was not a religious PM, nor was Howard. Abbott certainly and Rudd maybe are religious PMs.

  26. FarQU@575

    …and think of what we’d have missed if Shakespeare had followed the rules of English in his day, instead of playing around with the language…


    Being forced to read books we didn’t give a shit about, stupid men in bloody togas, and interminable arguments how the world’s going to pot because we don’t read Shakespeare anymore.

    One of the few things I got out of studying English Literature was a love of Shakespeare.

  27. [but was not a practicing Catholic as an adult. ]

    One of his past biographers wrote that he regularly attended mass, even as PM. Don Russell is reported to have once said of Keating that he was always the catholic boy driven to do good (or wtte).

    But none of this is relevant to psyclaw’s dig at GG by using Abbott by way of expressing pity for Australia as having a religious PM. We’ve had religious PMs in the past, and the country has not only remained functioning, but has grown and prospered.

  28. “The Associated Press ‏@AP 2m
    Ukrainian officials: Black boxes show MH17 suffered “massive, explosive decompression” after shrapnel hit: http://apne.ws/1rueXGG

    Jesus. File this under ‘No Shit, Sherlock’.”

    You already knew this?

    Interestingly, Captain Ross, the most comprehensive expert I have seen in the MH17 discussions said that whether the (then) alleged missile had caused massive outright and immediate damage and massive and immediate decompression would be important info that the black box would hopefully, possibly provide.

    It appears to have done so. That’s news.

    There are many implications for the investigation that flow from whether the decompression was massive and immediate or gradual (had the missile inflicted multiple smaller scale shrapnel “damages” to the plane as was the alternate possibility), said Captain Ross.

    Interestingly, the 777 has in excess of 200 performance sensors which constantly provide data to one of the black boxes.

    One of the implications of this reported finding will relate to the cause and nature of death of the victims, something that families might well find some comfort in at a later stage.

  29. [One of the few things I got out of studying English Literature was a love of Shakespeare.]

    The only thing I got was detention.

  30. Tony Abbott isn’t a bad PM because he is religious. He’s a bad PM because he’s vindictive, deceitful, a pugnacious boofhead and totally lacking the skills and character required for high office.

  31. I don’t abuse religious people, but having been on the receiving end of abuse by religious people (nothing horrific I will add, just your garden variety psychological stuff), I can well understand those that do.

    My view is if you need to talk about your religion, or the converse for the non-believers, you have a way to travel yet.

  32. You can check out any time you want. But, you can never leave.

    What utter crap!

    I have left, never to return.

  33. Confessions

    Dear Dear

    You’ve been saving those few rockets for weeks now. Careful with firing them all on the one night or you’ll run out of ammo.

    Those references about Keating’s overt reliance on his religion a la Abbott coming soon?

  34. Tomorrow’s #newspoll Two Party Preferred ALP 54 (0) L/NP 46 (0) Primary LNP 36 (0) ALP 36 (-1) Grn 12 (+1) Others 16 (0) #qanda #auspol

  35. psyclaw@586

    Confessions

    Dear Dear

    You’ve been saving those few rockets for weeks now. Careful with firing them all on the one night or you’ll run out of ammo.

    Those references about Keating’s overt reliance on his religion a la Abbott coming soon?

    You seem to have recently discovered confessions characteristics. Arrogant and massively ignorant. Which of course leads to her being usually wrong.

  36. [Those references about Keating’s overt reliance on his religion a la Abbott coming soon?]

    Ain’t me handwringing about Abbott’s religion like we’ve never had a religious PM before. You were wrong, you were called out, and now you’re shifting goalposts. Whatever.

  37. Tomorrow’s #newspoll Abbott: Approval 36 (+5) Disapproval 53 (-7); Shorten: Approval 38 (+4) Disapproval 41 (-2) #qanda #auspol

  38. https://twitter.com/smurray38/status/493731419563106304

    [Stephen Murray @smurray38
    Tomorrow’s #newspoll Two Party Preferred ALP 54 (0) L/NP 46 (0) Primary LNP 36 (0) ALP 36 (-1) Grn 12 (+1) Others 16 (0) #qanda #auspol

    Stephen Murray @smurray38
    Tomorrow’s #newspoll Preferred PM Abbott 38 (+2) Shorten 38 (-3) #qanda #auspol

    Stephen Murray @smurray38
    Tomorrow’s #newspoll Abbott: Approval 36 (+5) Disapproval 53 (-7); Shorten: Approval 38 (+4) Disapproval 41 (-2) #qanda #auspol]

  39. victoria:

    So all the MH17 publicity has served only to increase Abbott’s personal ratings?

    William was right!

  40. WWP ‘Believing in’ god just shows that you and your ilk are prepared to take up a part of your brain with an irrational belief, which unfortunately in many cases leads to muddled and defective thinking, and seriously bad consequences. Examples include the crusades, the Spanish and other inquisitions, the persecution of Galileo, institutionalised paedophilia and the protection and ignoring of same, and jihad.

    I don’t pretend to understand how or why you want to clutter your brain with irrational nonsense. I stopped believing in ‘god’ at the age of about 15 when I realised that the entire house of cards of christian belief was easily understood as being the perpetuation of the myths and legends of a tribe of nomadic middle eastern sheep herders which had been become the tool of numerous ongoing political power structures. No need for god, miracles or any of the other stuff, just the holding and exercise of power.

    I am not a Green. I am a rational humanist who believes in the golden rule, ‘Do unto others as you would have them do unto you’. I hate bullying, injustice and plain nastiness, as exhibited by several on here. I am a member of Mensa, hold a first class honours degreee in engineering from the University of Sydney, and a Master of Business Administration from Macquarie University, where my specialisations were Advanced Financial Management and Operations Research. I build large optimisation models for big companies which show them how to save many millions of dollars per annum.

    I find your self-indulgent pontifications amusing, but trite and somewhat pompous. Your defence of GG is just sad.

    cheers,

    MD

  41. farqu

    “I wouldn’t say his views on profiling muslims at airports is based on meticulous research and argument. Fairly light-weight fluff all told”

    Have you actually read what he has to say on the topic?

  42. [Abbott’s religion like we’ve never had a religious PM before]

    I certainly don’t remember a more religious PM than Abbott. Pre-Whitlam they were perhaps par for the course, but you’d have to ask the oldies that. Certainly Abbott and Rudd have more openly religious than the last few PMs. Given the history of belief and its consequences on people, we would do well to keep it in check.

    Best would be for the moderate religious to criticise those who seek to use their religious beliefs to harm others.

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