Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

A new Galaxy poll reflects last week’s polling in finding the Coalition vote up in the wake of the MH17 disaster, but not by much.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a Galaxy poll, presumably to be published in the News Limited tabloids tomorrow, has Labor’s lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 at the last such poll. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11% and Palmer United down one to 7%.

Other questions posed by the pollsters elicited results that would be highly disappointing to the government under the circumstances. Bill Shorten leads Tony Abbott not only on “best at managing the economy”, by 43% to 36%, but also by 41% to 39% on “trust to stand up for Australia’s overseas interests”. Shorten also maintains a 41-35 lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: Daily Telegraph graphic here, giving highest prominence to a question on “who has shown the most leadership after the MH17 disaster” out of Tony Abbott (48%), Barack Obama (17%) and David Cameron (7%), notwithstanding the doubts one might harbour about respondents’ capacity to provide a meaningful answer to such a question. Of more use is a question on whether the Prime Minister should ban Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane, which finds 45% in favour and 36% opposed, and a slightly stronger lean in favour among Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2 (Roy Morgan): This week’s Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, combining the results of face-to-face and SMS surveying from 3296 respondents over the past two weekends, has the Coalition up four points to 38%, but Labor also up half a point to 39%. Palmer United is down from 7.5% to 5%, with the Greens also down a point to 10.5%. Labor is down two points on both respondent-allocated and previous election two-party preferred, its respective leads now at 54.5-45.5 and 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

602 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. GG

    😆 I did not say personal abuse.

    So why would I complain to William. You must think you are on shaky ground.

  2. Re Lizzie @446: it’s like Scott Morrison pretending to be motivated by concern about drownings of asylum seekers.

  3. Check this Morgan Doh.

    [Support for the Palmer United Party is highest in the two mining States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (8%) and Western Australia (7%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in New South Wales (4%), Victoria (5%), Tasmania (2%) and South Australia (2.5%).]

    Er Gary mate. PUP has 3 Senators.

  4. absolutetwaddle

    [For as long as Hamas continues firing rockets into Israel with the intent to kill, Israel will always have a pretext to do whatever it wishes in Gaza and every IDF apologist on the planet will have a ‘self-defence’ excuse ready made.]

    More precisely, they will invent a different pretext. Israel is the occupying state and knows it can act with impunity. If you track the sequence, the missiles tend to follow Israeli provocations, but the broader distal cause is the failure of Israel to agree to a peace settlement that the Palestinians can live with. If you consistently brutalise someone, it’s disingenuous to affect incomprehension at their conduct, and utter cant to say that you must brutalise them more intensively to make them desist.

    [If Hamas and Islamic Jihad or whatever other theocratic outfit is all the rage there came to their senses, they would realise a policy of non-violent resistance would make it much, much, much harder for Israel to justify bombing them to bits or blockading them.]

    See above. It’s difficult to come to your senses when you know that in any moment an Israeli missile could wipe out everyone you know and perhaps you with it. If that doesn’t drive you completely insane, because you adapt, you are likely to place far less significance on the possibility of living long enough to bother making plans or friends. Your calculus is likely to be impoverished, and perhaps the only salve you have is the sight of a missile headed in the direction of the people causing it.

    Do you really think in any event that the attitude of Israel’s backers would be different if Palestine had been run by a completely passive regime? It seems improbable.

    [Hamas’ current violent ‘tactics’ – if we must call then that – are obviously self-defeating. Maybe they have a right to invite Israel’s wrath on them in such an egregious manner. I still think it’s profoundly stupid and that the blame for the Palestinians who have died as a result of Israel’s missiles is at least partly shared by Hamas.]

    I can agree it’s unwise. One should do what one can believe will advance one’s legitimate ends rather than purely symbolic acts — which is how I see the missiles coming from Gaza. Then again, there’s an obvious paradox in expecting people who have suffered generations of violent abuse to privilege reason over salving their pain. Perhaps they imagine that those killed in this assault will be the catalyst for forcing a resolution they can live with. I suspect they’re wrong if that’s what they think, but it’s not as if there are any obviously better alternatives. For the record, they’ve offered a ten-year conditional truce based on lifting the blockade and allowing some rebuilding.

    [Any reasonable person can see what happens if you’re foolhardy enough to fire rockets into Israel. If you do it anyway you bear the responsibility for at least some of what follows.]

    If there are too few ‘reasonable people’ in Gaza, whose responsibility is that?

  5. Steve777

    Yes, sickening. I wish “the environment” had monetary value attached to it so that we could point out the real ‘balance’. These selfish morons don’t understand anything except money.

  6. GG

    Now you are being a bully and making unproven assertions.

    There are times when you really are a waste os space as far as debate goes.

    Come back when you are being adult again.

  7. Mike Carlton is spot on as usual. It takes a special kind of person to try to justify Israel’s depravity, but it sounds like he’s been bombarded with e-mails from quite a few special people.

  8. Fran Barlow @ 391

    I provided the link to Shoebridge’s and Rhiannon’s joint media release and highlighted a few paragraphs to provide further context to the link Shellbell supplied earlier.

    I deliberately expressed no personal opinion or judgement.

    All I will say is my father was a Jew who lost all his extended family in the holocaust. Only he and his parents survived. He came to Australia as a displaced refugee.

    I support the Palestinian Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign against Israel. Discussion with my father about anything relating to ME politics had to be off limits.

    I discuss my position on the ME conflict with real people in the real world, not here on PB.

  9. GG

    Do you fully understand how you come across on this site?

    You need to go to confession more often and ask God for forgiveness for the rubbish you spout or is it grog that eggs you on?

  10. Slipper guilty.

    [FORMER speaker Peter Slipper has been found guilty of dishonestly using parliamentary taxi vouchers to travel to wineries.

    ACT Chief Magistrate Lorraine Walker today found the former MP dishonestly and knowingly misused the taxpayer-funded vouchers on three days in 2010.]

  11. [@PierreCrom: Press blocked not far from #MH17 site. Dutch, Australian, OSCE driving through. Sounds of heavy shelling]

    This may not end well

  12. MTBW,

    Do you have Tourettes for Bigots?

    Religious hate spews out of you whenever you make a comment.

  13. guytaur

    “You just showed you don’t get it. You are as blind as Netanahyu”

    I did no such thing and I would ask that you treat me with the same respect I’ve shown to you in my replies.

  14. Fran

    “Do you really think in any event that the attitude of Israel’s backers would be different if Palestine had been run by a completely passive regime? It seems improbable.”

    On the current trajectory we will never know for sure. Also I didn’t say the Palestinians should be passive, I said they should be non-violent. I don’t think that’s a distinction without a difference.

  15. Julie Bishop gives Vlad a great line to use. She explained that what happens on a battlefield is not always what the politicians have wished.

  16. GG

    Like me and many others here, MTBW is an enlightened , matured catholic.

    She and we have blossomed as persons since we lapsed.

    Nevertheless, the toxic crap that the catholic church spewed forth on us as impressionable youngsters entitles us to make whatever comment we please about matters “religious”, and especially matters of the catholic church.

    That’s not abuse of the catholic church, it’s merely calling out the reality of it all.

    And while I’m at it, let me say that Abbott’s publicity seeking attendance at morning mass on budget day to pray for the success of his totally unChristian budget, reminded me of myself as an immature 12-17 year old going to mass on exam days, to pray for a high mark.

    I got wise about it. Abbott didn’t. Poor fellow my country to have a believer in fairies as PM.

  17. Slipper’s conviction is the end of a disgusting vendetta that shames our whole political class, but particularly that slimey little prick Abbott.

  18. psyclaw,

    I’m afraid that, as usual, your stream of concious drivel doesn’t really cut it as an intellectual or interesting contribution.

    What’s your point?

  19. Retweeted by Richard Chirgwin
    Dame Delly Melba ‏@deltrimental 21m

    And a lot of poorer people live in regional areas due to unaffordable/unavailable housing in the city.

    Under a knights / noble kingdom,

    You have the poor outside the kingdom.

    That’s Coalition Party idea of Welfare.

  20. Psyclaw, #468 is not “calling out the reality” of the Catholic Church – it’s a personal attack on GG based on his religious beliefs. While GG’s own modus operandi around here is such that he’s only due so much sympathy for this, comments like #468 remain unhelpful. It the subject of such a comment were a Muslim (to pick one of a number of potential examples), I don’t think there would be much dispute that the comment would need to be deleted.

  21. [Poor fellow my country to have a believer in fairies as PM.]

    Abbott is not the first religious PM Australia has had, nor will he be the last. And nor by the way is Abbott Australia’s first catholic PM. The last catholic PM was Keating. Did you feel pity for your fellow country because of Keating’s religious beliefs?

  22. Saying Tone is religious is like saying Stalin was communist. With Tone, the only appeal of religion is to give him a few taboos to spice up his day.

  23. Re GG @484: Rudd was exposed to both Catholic and Anglican influences as he grew up. He eventually went with the Anglicans.

  24. bemused,

    Rudd was certainly raised a Catholic. As far as I know, he never renounced his faith although he may worship at an Anglican Church with his wife, Therese.

    High COE is not that different to Catholicism.

  25. Ben Eltham: https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/28/work-dole-doesnt-work-and-never-has

    [As Kim Beazley told voters way back in 1994, “we’re moving to a concept of obligation. That is, after a period of time out of work there is an obligation on the government to provide training and work-related opportunities and an obligation on those receiving benefits to take them.”

    Ever since, governments of both major parties have been huge fans of the idea. The Howard government turned it into “mutual obligation”, removed the work guarantee, toughened the penalties, and created a whole new industry of employment services providers to administer it.

    Over the years, each successive government has strengthened the obligation on jobseekers, and loosed the mutuality. It’s been a slow creep of paternalism, endorsed by both major parties.

    It’s a perfect example of the way the two-party system has disenfranchised ordinary citizens in recent decades.]

  26. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 4m

    There are so so many rocks that need to be painted white, then black, then white again. #workforthedole

  27. The DT today (free read in a cafe) seems to have it in for Baird. It complains that Baird is running a substandard train service to Western Sydney with overcrowding, late trains and attacks on passengers. The writer of the article may however need a geography lesson – said he changed trains at Parramatta to get on a better train coming from Newcastle. (Sydneysiders will know that is impossible.)

    Paper also implied Baird is tricky as he will wait until after the election to start digging up George Street in the city for the light rail line.

    Has Baird done something to upset Murdoch?

  28. While I bow to the information provided by PBers re Rudd, it’s important to remember that the Catholic Church is like the Hotel California.

    You can check out any time you want. But, you can never leave.

  29. Re early posts about the Attorney General requesting details of dealings with Unions on the part of Ministers and public servants going back a decade.

    Maybe Labor should make a similar request when it gets back in regarding deslings with Miners, Fossil Fuel executives, Media interests (especially News Corporation), private health interests, private education interests (especially private colleges) and the Finance industry. There’d be enough material for a dozen Royal Commissions.

  30. Menzies wasn’t catholic, nor is Fraser. I don’t know what Howard was but he certainly isn’t catholic.

    Cook? Not sure. But he was Labor originally, so it’s possible.

  31. Menzies was Presbyterian. Howard was a Methodist.

    [But it is an historical fact that a clear majority of Australia’s leaders since 1901 – 16 out of 23, by my count – were believers in God. None of them was unintelligent, and even most of the 7 unbelievers thought long and hard about metaphysics. Bob Hawke, for example, was the son of a Congregationalist minister and an earnest Christian until his early 20s. Only one of the 23 – Harold Holt – was an apathetic agnostic all his life.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2013/08/12/3823825.htm

    (was written before the last election)

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