Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A move in Labor’s favour in Essential Research this week, but further questions find support for a tougher regime on disability support and the government’s handling of boat arrivals.

The only new federal polling result we look to be getting this week, the regularly fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, has Labor up a point on two-party preferred to lead 53-47, as the bad result which saw them drop two points a fortnight ago washes out of the system. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% and the Coalition down one to 39%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. We also have Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott down one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 58%, Bill Shorten down two to 36% and down one to 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-36 to 37-34. Other questions find approval of the government’s handling of boat arrivals up two since March to 41% and disapproval down three to 35%, with 27% thinking the government too tough, 18% too soft, and 36% “taking the right approach”. Another result suggests paring back the disability support pension to be a relatively popular cost-cutting measure, with 46% supporting recent recommendations to that effect and 37% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

941 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Obviously Paul Kelly wrote this today entirely on his own initiative:

    [The truth about Murdoch editors

    PAUL KELLY, EDITOR-AT-LARGE
    RUPERT Murdoch does not dictate the content of his newspapers.]

  2. [Qantas Airways has officially abandoned a “carbon surcharge” on its domestic and regional fares in anticipation of the likely repeal of the carbon tax.

    However, the move is unlikely to result in lower airfares because the airline said the competitive nature of the domestic aviation market meant it had not been able to recover the cost of the carbon tax through price increases as originally intended

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/qantas-scraps-carbon-surcharge-on-domestic-flights-but-airfares-wont-fall-20140709-zt108.html ]

    The only problem with this was that ALL airlines paid Carbon Tax. There was an even playing field.

    Anyway, I look forward to the new laws forcing these corporate cretins to put their prices down, or if not, the look on Abbott’s face as the expected drop in the CPI does not reach the anticipated 0.7%.

  3. [He told a conference hosted by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia that sea level rises of 1m appeared inevitable.

    The comments from the former senior manager at engineering firm WorleyParsons were prompted by a question from Lyn Beazley, who stepped down as WA chief scientist last year.

    Responding to the question, Dr Hardisty said: “You go to Busselton, for instance, and the whole town is at half a metre of elevation and certainly well within the range, by 2070, that without sea walls they’ll be under water.”

    “And they know it,” Dr Hardisty said.

    “Coastal inundation is one of the effects that played into the financial estimates of exposure… looming into the trillions of dollars across Australia.

    “So it’s a significant issue.

    “And this is just going to keep going.

    “It’s basically being driven by the thermal expansion of water as much as anything else and that has got a lot of inertia behind it.

    “We’re going to see a metre no matter what we do.”]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24420522/busselton-under-water-by-2100/

    I read somewhere recently that Busselton is among the state’s fastest growing regional towns in the SW. If they’re forecast to be practically underwater within 50 or so years that’s pretty scary.

  4. The Commonwealth cannot fix prices. The Constitution does not allow it. At least two referndums opposed by the LNP confirmed the “people’s” intention about this matter.

    Good luck Tony on appeasing Clive on this issue.

  5. Abbott is really getting himself & us into a sh*t sandwich.

    [By making such a comment, Abbott showed how insensible he is towards people in China and other countries who had suffered greatly as a result of the ‘advanced’ war skills of Japanese troops and their sense of honour during their aggression.]

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/china-blasts-appalling-and-insensible-tony-abbott-for-showing-admiration-for-japan-and-its-wartime-aggression/story-fnda1bsz-1226983386589

  6. [However, the move is unlikely to result in lower airfares ]

    I’m sure there are people out there who genuinely expected that prices on affected goods post carbon ‘tax’ repeal would be lower, hence buying into Abbott’s pre-election crap.

    I wonder how those people are feeling about this news?

  7. mike,

    Not sure if Insensible should have been translated as Insensitive.

    The Chinese are peeved no doubt. But, you need to be careful with the meaning of rhetoric in the diplomatic scene.

  8. mh

    From your link:

    “We admired the skill and the sense of honour that they brought to their task although we disagreed with what they did. Perhaps we grasped, even then, that with a change of heart the fiercest of opponents could be the best of friends,” the prime minister said.

    The correspondent said that Mr Abbott “probably wasn’t aware that the Japanese troops possessed other “skills”, skills to loot, to rape, to torture and to kill”.

    Abbott is completely and utterly out of his depth when it comes to foreign policy. Let’s hope that his Party, or the Australian people, get rid of him before he gets us into another war.

  9. Looks like Rupert backed a loser in taking News Corp under his wing.

    [The split of News Corp has bumped its print business off the Fortune 500 list of the world’s biggest companies.
    But its sister company, 21st Century Fox, has effectively taken the newspaper empire’s place in its debut on the list.
    Fox – ranked at 318 – was spun off from News Corp’s publishing arm in July last year in an effort to free the entertainment business from News Corp’s low growth media assets, which include The Australian, The Daily Telegraph and the Herald Sun.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/fortune-500-news-corp-bumped-off-list-as-shell-loses-top-spot-20140709-zt1cm.html#ixzz36xdo4c4o ]

  10. mikeh:

    [“We admired the skill and the sense of honour that they brought to their task although we disagreed with what they did. ]

    I’m sure a lot of Japanese women will take {cough} comfort from Abbott’s admiration.

  11. Just got Galaxy ‘ed.

    A bit weird. Questions about State voting intention, all above board.
    ALP
    LNP
    Greens
    PUP
    Katter
    Others

    Then, How do you feel about Palmer having the BoP in The Senate.
    Then is Palmer being a billionaire pollie good or bad.

    Seems like a News Ltd fishing expedition against Clive and his PUP.

  12. Confessions

    Just saw the headline on Busselton and the rising sea level threat.

    I worked there in the the early 70s when it was a sleepy coastal town for 40 weeks of the year and then went mad at holidays.

    Like you say it has grown like topsy and people are living on what were wetlands 40 years ago. Back in those days erosion was a major problem with big storms often hacking a chunk out of the waterfront roads. Looks like things might get a bit more serious than that.

  13. [mikeh:

    “We admired the skill and the sense of honour that they brought to their task although we disagreed with what they did.

    I’m sure a lot of Japanese women will take {cough} comfort from Abbott’s admiration.

    by confessions on Jul 9, 2014 at 7:15 pm]

    Yep. They brought considerable skill to murdering hundreds of thousands of unarmed people, herding tens of thousands of women into sex slavery, starving to death over a million Javanese alone in a single year, torturing thousands of people… lots of skill there. Lots of ‘sense of honour’ as well, if Abbott is correct.

    Abe has shown considerable skill in (a) worshipping at the shrine of convicted war criminals and (b) making faux sorry talk in Australia’s parliament. The two cannot co-exist and we can safely assume that the sincere stuff is worshipping at Yasukuni Shrine. One final comment on skill: the restoration of the Burma Railroad Locomotive exhibited in the shrine of war criminals, was also skilfully done.

  14. I await some enterprising journalist to ask Abbott what possible Japanese sense of honour existed in sex slavery.

    It is not that Abbott’s moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    He simply lacks any moral compass at all.

  15. Abbott may think that Abe and the US values Australia’s war-making capacity. The military reality is that it would not make a skerrick of difference in a general east asian war. Zip. De nada. Zero.

    What they appear to want is to lock Australia into the potential economic kame kazi of banning a trade in iron ore and coal to China.

  16. rossmcg:

    Busselton has become or is well on the pathway to becoming a FIFO community as well, fueling that population growth.

  17. Boerwar@822

    I await some enterprising journalist to ask Abbott what possible Japanese sense of honour existed in sex slavery.

    It is not that Abbott’s moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    He simply lacks any moral compass at all.

    Imagine the reaction if an ALP PM said that tripe.

    Lets see what the RSL have to say or the shock jocks.

  18. Boerwar:

    It was a pretty stupid thing for Abbott to say. I always knew he had no diplomatic abilities, but I never really expected we’d see just how crap he is at this stuff so early on in his PMinistership.

  19. Palmer might be playing a long game a statutory required notice saying ‘we never put prices up for the carbon tax so we can’t put them down’ would do massive damage to Abbott

  20. Just when you thought Abbott could get worse on the diplomatic front.

    [China blasts ‘appalling and insensible’ Tony Abbott for showing admiration for Japan and its wartime aggression

    “We admired the skill and the sense of honour that they brought to their task although we disagreed with what they did. Perhaps we grasped, even then, that with a change of heart the fiercest of opponents could be the best of friends,” the prime minister said.

    The correspondent said that Mr Abbott “probably wasn’t aware that the Japanese troops possessed other “skills”, skills to loot, to rape, to torture and to kill”.]
    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/china-blasts-appalling-and-insensible-tony-abbott-for-showing-admiration-for-japan-and-its-wartime-aggression/story-fnda1bsz-1226983386589

  21. I do hope that Labor has some sort of economic strategy other than shooting holes in the budget. Things could get messy.

  22. Another Abbott govt backflip.

    [The only respite centre in Albany received a one-off grant of $370,000 from the Federal Health Department, meaning they will not be forced to shut their doors this month.

    Member for O’Connor Rick Wilson and WA Senator Dean Smith pushed the case with Health Minister Peter Dutton after the centre’s previous three-year grant ran out and could not apply for the National Respite for Carers Program until 2015-16.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/regional/great-southern/a/24421900/grant-keeps-albany-respite-centre-open/

  23. Just Me

    Excellent point, IMHO.

    We have heard nothing but whinging and yowling about a hundred or so jihadis from Abbott and his bunch of dog whistling racists – and exactly nothing about the peaceful elections in the largest islamic nation in the world.

    BTW, I wonder whether the Indonesians appreciate Abbott’s admiration of Japanese WW2 ‘skills’ and ‘honour’. They suffered, literally, millions of totally unnecessary deaths at the hands of the ‘skilled’ ones.

  24. Was just Newspolled about media use in the NT, clearly all about Murdoch publications (being the only ones mentioned by name).

    Easy survey. Mostly just answered ‘no’.

  25. A bit of a 🙂 about where Abbott would have us go.

    [BBC News A Rational Fear A nuclear winter Olympics

    Brisbane puts its bid in for to host the 2038 winter Olympics — only the effects of climate change mean that there are a few other things to worry about other than the lack of snow]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6KTpmLfPKY

  26. Trouble brewing in Indonesia with both claiming victory

    https://twitter.com/mbachelard

    It would appear that the reformist/progressive Joko Widodo has the more legitimate claim on victory and Prabawo Subianto claim is more bluster.

    It does raise the question if what will the establishment and the military do in response to seeing the country being led by an outside.

    Could Indonesia head down the same path as Thailand?

  27. The Jakarta Globe http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/ has an election count live blog. They currently have Joko Widodo at 52.89% and Prabowo Subianto at 47.11%. This is in line with the most recent opinion polls.

    The apparent loser is currently refusing to concede defeat but sounds a bit like Abbott in 2010.

    Despite some stories of possible voting irregularities, it appears that this election, with 190 million potential voters, has been free and fair.

  28. Spokesman for Electricity Generators on 7.30 says no-one predicted that solar panels would be so popular.

    Just like no-one predicted Abbott would be a jerk PM.

    Only the wilfully dumb didn’t know these things would happen.

    Solar panels now provide 8% of generation nationally (20% in Qld; 25% in SA).

    The 7.30 article discussed the huge recent developments in battery technology.

    It is possible now if you have smart meter to charge home battery banks in dirt cheap o’nite off peak for use in the day, and save $s, ie use batteries even without solar to charge them.

    What bright nutters now running the joint, with their anti-renewable “princles”.

  29. Confessions

    Yes FIFO big in the south west with direct flights from busselton, interesting to see how It pans out with BHP cutting jobs in the thousands and the construction phase in the mines winding down.

  30. BW

    [It is not that Abbott’s moral compass is pointing in the wrong direction.

    He simply lacks any moral compass at all.]

    So true, so true.

  31. I can see the skill involved in machine gunning unarmed nurses in the back.

    But the sense of ‘honour’ involved in the activity sort of escapes me.

    Perhaps some enterprising journalist could ask Abbott what honour was involved in the Bullwinkle massacre?

  32. Abbott must have gone rogue on the speech. Surely every such speech would have foreign affairs/diplomat types comb through the words beforehand to avoid such a faux pas ?

  33. I notice that Abe mentioned the Sandakan Death March. There was a modicum of skill involved – getting the starving prisoners together, ensuring that there was no food or water for them during the march and then finishing off the dying as the march progressed. There had to be some sort of organisation involved in achieving that sort of mass murder.

    So, skill… yes.

    But even at this remove, it is difficult to see what Abbott is so enthusiastic about:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandakan_Death_Marches

    I wonder whether some enterprising journalist will ask Abbott what sense of honour he sees in the Sandakan Death March?

  34. [I can see the skill involved in machine gunning unarmed nurses in the back.

    But the sense of ‘honour’ involved in the activity sort of escapes me.]

    And goodness knows what’s admirable about all that? That to me is the real WTF about his comment.

  35. poroti

    [Abbott must have gone rogue on the speech.]

    Yes, I think reason has flown the coop. The advisers have just given up on the man.

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