BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate finds the latest Newspoll result checking the Coalition’s modest poll recovery, and drives Tony Abbott’s personal ratings to a new low.

The Coalition’s mildly improving polling trend over the past few weeks has taken a knock after the latest bad result from Newspoll, contributing to a 0.5% two-party shift in Labor’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. On the state-level seat projection, the big move this week is a three-seat shift to Labor in Queensland, where the Labor swing had probably been a bit undercooked on recent readings, along with one-seat gains in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, Labor is down a seat in Victoria after a blowout in their favour last week and also down one in Tasmania, resulting in a net gain of three. Newspoll also provided a new set of leadership ratings this week, which have pushed Tony Abbott out to his worst net personal approval rating since the election. Other figures on voting intention were provided this week by Essential Research, ReachTEL and Morgan. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. [I must confess that the differentiation between murder and manslaughter has never done much for me.]

    Well you are a dangerous fool who just lost any argument you care to put in the future. In fact you have joined others on my ignore list. Disgusting statement.

  3. SGH: one wonders what the “best kind” of pedophile might be?

    Personally, I would see the “worst” kind of pedophile to be one who preys on kids a bit younger than Rolf was accused of abusing.

    Rolf undoubtedly deserves the humiliation that has come to him. Is there much point in locking him up now? Personally I think not: he’s surely not much of a threat to a anyone now. Confiscate all his money and distribute it among his victims: that seems more appropriate to me.

  7. “The federal Department of the Environment will make 250 of its leading specialists reapply for their jobs and make 30 of them redundant in the latest round of cost-cutting measures.”

    Translated – “who could be the most troublesome?

  9. Personally I think not: he’s surely not much of a threat to a anyone now. Confiscate all his money and distribute it among his victims: that seems more appropriate to me.anyone now. Confiscate all his money and distribute it among his victims: that seems more appropriate to me.

    I would suggest that shows you know little about the psychology of such people. He does not think he has done anything wrong and would do it again,without a doubt. Taking them out of society is currently the only solution

  10. William Bowe

    “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuQWoRkFBRU”

    Wow. As if any more evidence needed to be presented that people have always had shitty taste in music. This used to be popular?! Even before the guy was outed as a sex offender his listeners ought to have been ashamed.

    And yes, this is the first time since I was a kid I’ve listened to an entire Rolf Harris song.

  11. [Personally I think not: he’s surely not much of a threat to a anyone now. Confiscate all his money and distribute it among his victims: that seems more appropriate to me.anyone now. Confiscate all his money and distribute it among his victims: that seems more appropriate to me.]

    Rolf should be locked away for what remains of his horrible life.

    He is a danger to society, shows no remorse and would be very likely to re-offend, especially given the cover he was given my his family and the British entertainment establishment.

  13. Rolf’s songs were lurid and creepy — but we were forced to listen to his nonsense when in school.

    Why children were forced to consume his “art” is beyond me, what interest did we 10 year olds have with an ageing, hairy and overweight man telling us about his notorious “third leg” and “wobble” board.

    Gross to even think about it.

    Lock him up and may no-one be subjected to this creep again.

  14. Abbott’s comments re “unsettled/lightly settled” are consistent with the paternalistic/noblesse oblige approach he has always demonstrated towards Indigenous peoples.

    At heart, Abbott favours assimilation. He is able to channel this attitude – and to some extent disguise it – by publicly backing the “tough love” approach espoused by Noel Pearson and some of the Yolngu leadership.

    He has no interest whatsoever in self-determination.

  15. The debate about whether Harris should go to jail at his age is a common one.

    I have heard it argued that aged war criminals should not be pursued, let alone jailed.

    Where do you draw the line?

    Do the crime, do the time.

  16. nappin@809. Well, if there is genuinely a chance he would do it again, then fair enough. But he is 84 years old.

  19. Meher

    There is evidence that Harris was looking at child porn relatively recently.

    His defence was that his accusers were making it up in the hope of getting money and he shows no remorse. All over the world women are coming out and saying Rolf groped me. I think I know who I believe.

    Had he pleaded guilty and saved his victims from the ordeal of cross examination I might feel that a short jail term might be appropriate.

    But he didn’t

  20. meher baba @ 816: Big assumption there. I recall reading the account of a woman who had been groped by Bertrand Russell in his old age, who described the feeling as “dry leaves crinkling on the leg”.

  21. Also I’m not saying we shouldn’t be buying fighters, but why can’t we apply the same argument to fighters the way the Coalition have applied to the NBN. Why pay for the most expensive when a half-rate is a portion of the price?

  22. OK, fair enough, I’ll take it back. Lock him up. I guess it will serve as some sort of a deterrent.

    And it will prevent us from having to endure any more putrid recordings of the type that William dug up for us.

  23. [and he shows no remorse]

    To me he exhibited that entitlement factor that some celebrities exude, in that they just feel they can treat people however the hell they like.

  24. Rolf Harris is the classic “dirty old man”.

    But if course, that is all too mild and such terms were used when it was just accepted that some family members or known ‘acquaintances’ had less than seemly interests, but no-one dared go there in “polite society”. Previous generations have a lot to answer for, quite frankly. 70s music taste is least of that generation’s sins.

    This was a brazen predator — who continued to offend — and even when confronted by his victims, he only scowled back at them, as if they were wrong or dirty.

    Shame on a generation of enablers, who turned a blind eye to this dirt bag, just because he was a profitable entertainer.

  26. At the risk of restarting WW three, can I ask if an 84 year old priest had offended as Harris has done would anybody be suggesting he not go to jail?

  27. [To me he exhibited that entitlement factor that some celebrities exude, in that they just feel they can treat people however the hell they like.]

    Yes. Combining a brazen sex predator with celebrity is a dangerous combination, which often leads to serial offending. Pedophiles have a sense of entitlement to abuse; celebrities have an entitlement to indulgence — utterly devastating when combined.

    May this creep rot in hell.

  28. [Shame on a generation of enablers, who turned a blind eye to this dirt bag, just because he was a profitable entertainer.]

    Not just the entertainment industry that is littered with those people. Look at all those enablers in institutions like churches, residential schools, prisons, psychiatric facilities etc who not just turned a blind eye to perpetrators, but went to lengths to move them somewhere else lest a scandal erupt to taint the institution.

    Absolutely disgraceful.

  30. I would dearly love to see a survey that discovers exactly how many people voted for Abbott, but have been, will be, or may be personally affected. Meaning lost their job, or suffered due to nasty cutbacks, or experienced this with someone in their family, or suffered loss because of Abbott happening to one of their family.

  31. [At the risk of restarting WW three, can I ask if an 84 year old priest had offended as Harris has done would anybody be suggesting he not go to jail?]

    I think Meher Haba was the only one in Australia and the UK (Rolf’s creepy family excepted) who didn’t support a custodial sentence for this scumbag.

    Thankfully he/she has changed his/her views on reflection.

  33. rossmcg@826: my view on these matters is consistent. No matter how vengeful I might feel towards people for what they have done, I believe that people should only go to gaol to protect us all from the adverse consequences of their reoffending.

    On that basis, I don’t support Andy Coulson going to gaol. If an 84yo is deemed likely to reoffend, then they should certainly go to gaol. But I’m generally more concerned about younger offenders.

  34. You know, I hate the Daily Telegraph muchly, but the other day it did give me a giggle.

    “Trust British jails, sure can!”

  35. Darren L:

    And that sense of entitlement to treat people however they like is followed by an expectation that people should just suck it up, or at the very least feel privileged that said celebrity has deigned to bestow some attention on them.

    There is a lot about Harris’ apparent lack of remorse that suggests he felt precisely this way about those he preyed upon.

  36. meher baba @ 833: Wouldn’t that logic suggest that Albert Speer and Rudolf Hess should have been set free by the Nuremberg tribunal?

  37. pedant@836. I would think that political leaders who order others to commit criminal acts will be capable of reoffending for as long as they live and breathe. So custodial sentences are always appropriate for them, no matter how old they might be.

  38. Meher

    Jailing coulson serves as a deterrent. I reckon there would be plenty of people who would happily go on hacking phones if they knew they only faced a fine, probably to be paid by their employer.

  39. The so called Welfare Reforms by Tory goverment are making things worse for Welsh economy:
    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welfare-reforms-have-made-welsh-7355509

    “The IFS said recent tax and benefit changes brought in by the UK Government would result in an annual loss to the Welsh economy of around £720m – equating to £11 a week for each household in Wales.”

    “The IFS report also reveals a huge gulf in how households have been affected by tax and benefit changes – with households with workless couples with children losing around £55 a week, compared to a £2 a week loss for pensioners.”

    “Workless single parents will also lose £40.”

  44. Boomyi

    [But they did make it up Fran.]

    Oh well. I got it from Mark Colvin. I guess I’m in good company being fooled. It did seem incredibly neat irony. It’s one of those things that ought to be true.

  45. Stateline viewers in WA can tune in to see my friend Matt interviewed about local accommodation for the ANZAC centenary commemorations.

  46. The sentencing is very quickly.

    No waiting for three months to get a report from Probation & Parole about sentencing alternatives

  48. Meher baba

    [OK, fair enough, I’ll take it back. Lock him up. I guess it will serve as some sort of a deterrent.]

    Indeed, and if it does serve as some sort of deterrent (unclear, but possible) it is apt that Harris should play his part by being the cautionary tale. Deterrence still falls under the rubric of “protecting the public”. It is important that those who get it into their head that being a celebrity and close to the elite may give you some licence to ignore the rights of others note Harris’s fall.

    Ironically, Harris’s celebrity status almost certainly made his humiliation worse than it would have been had he been some nobody who had done similar things. Harris was a far more interesting story, which probably increases the deterrent value as does his age. For that reason and his age, I’d lean to a shortish sentence. What I’ve heard reported is indeed horrible, but not in the worst category of crimes against minors and his probability of having a chance to re-offend is near zero.

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