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| Teal numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal National Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. Most of its voters are concentrated at the inner end of the state’s populous south-eastern corner, including the centres of Kingaroy, Dalby and Warwick to the north, west and south of Toowoomba (which has formed the basis of Groom since 1984, and Darling Downs beforehand). Centres further inland include Roma and Charleville on the Warrego Highway, and Barcaldine and Longreach on the Landsborough Highway further north. The seat’s Liberal National Party margin after the 2013 election is 22.4%, making it the third safest Coalition seat in the country after Parkes in New South Wales and Mallee in Victoria.
Reflecting a familiar pattern in rural Queensland, Maranoa started life as a Labor stronghold and progressively moved to the other extreme with the decline of the shearing and railway workforce. The first changeover occurred in 1921 upon the death of the seat’s inaugural Labor member, Jim Page, initiating a by-election won for the Country Party by James Hunter. The seat returned to the Labor fold when Hunter retired in 1940, but Labor’s Francis Baker was unseated after a single term, emerging the only Labor member to lose his seat amid the party’s national landslide in 1943. It was then held for the Country Party by Charles Adermann until he moved to the new seat of Fisher with the expansion of parliament in 1949, which he would eventually bequeath to his son Evan in 1972.
Adermann’s successor at the 1949 election was Charles Russell, who quit the Country Party less than a year after his election and unsuccessfully contested the seat as an independent in both 1951 and 1954, falling 1.1% short on the latter occasion in the absence of a Labor candidate. That would mark the last occasion when the Country Party’s grip on the seat was seriously troubled, a 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushing the margin into double digits where it has remained ever since. The National/Country members through this period were Wilfred Brindlecombe until 1966, James Corbett until 1980, and Ian Cameron until 1990. There were suggestions ahead of the 1998 election that a threat might loom from One Nation, but in the event they could only manage third place behind Labor on 22.4%. A 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushed the margin well into double digits, where it has remained ever since.
The seat’s present long-serving incumbent is Bruce Scott, who served in the junior ministry as Veterans Affairs Minister for the first two terms of the Howard government, losing the position when the Nationals’ weak electorate performance in 2001 reduced its share of the spoils. In October 2012 he became Deputy Speaker, filling the vacancy created by Anna Burke’s rise to the Speakership following Peter Slipper’s resignation, and has retained the position in government. Barnaby Joyce had hoped to facilitate his move from the Senate to the House by replacing Scott in Maranoa at the last election, but Scott was determined to serve another term and Joyce dismissed the notion of challenging him for preselection, saying it would be “self-indulgent personality politics”. He instead opted to cross the state boundary and contest the northern New South Wales seat of New England.
[ Cantor does not seem likely to attempt a Lieberman]
Can’t happen anyway. Virginia has a ‘sore loser’ law meaning defeated primary candidates can’t appear on the final ballot.
Mod Lib
iI’s very hot and humid here in the jungle …… and many wild animals.
Haven’t seen any unicorns yet though.
All Mod Lib’s unicorns are tame, and appear in the position he points to on demand.
Cantor lost not because of immigration (the cheap seats view will say that..), but because he fundamentally lost touch with his district (which frankly he was NEVER a good fit for).
It’s a +10R district, so my expectations are that the Dems will throw EVERYTHING at this one, they’ve got buckley’s of picking up House seats… I doubt the Dems can win it, but it’s plausible they bring the GOPer down to 52-3%-ish … Cantor got 58% in 2012. If they kind of Murdock/Akin-level brain-snap, they could win it.
At Greenlees Park in Concord, our instructor in barefoot bowls called it the jigger. Obviously he was just a one off!
Did you people know that printers leave tiny traces on paper which allow you to determine the serial number of the printer and a timestamp?
Don’t ever print out something and send it unless you are prepared for it to be traced back to you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printer_steganography
Martin B,
Thanks for that info on Virginia nix of Cantor running in November. Great law for the Tea Party supporters and perhaps would assist Dem. candidates in districts which are marginals.
[Fulvio Sammut
Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 9:23 pm | Permalink
Maybe it’s just your mate who’s the racist, Boerwar?]
I doubt it.
He was fundamental to the research that established academic credibility of the stolen generations, has been involved in numerous court cases as an expert witness on matters relating to Indigenous history, and was a significant player in establishing Link UP, the first of the Indigenous organisations devoted to linking stolen kids to their parents and their country.
It was a relayed story about an Aborigine (well-known, name supplied – and no particular reason to doubt that he might be bullshitting) who joined a Lawn Bowls club. He noticed that the other players were using the term ‘nigger’ for the jack.
At the end of the first day he bounced the jack in his hand and asked his team mates what it was called.
They all said, ‘jack’.
2706
It would be pretty hard to trace a printer bought second hand for cash, especially if it was sold somewhere without CCTV, unless those trying to trace it found out the printer you had was the printer they were looking for.
Spot the DifferenceDept…
Contrast The Age’s front page headline:
[Bill Shorten threatened union man, inquiry told]
with the actual headline inside:
[Bill Shorten warned union official against blowing whistle: inquiry told]
and with the actual testimony today:
[“He said, ‘If you pursue this, a lot of good people will get hurt and you will be on your own. Look Bob, you’ve been lined up to take a safe Labor seat of Melton in the Victorian Parliament,” Mr Kernohan said in his statement.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-warned-union-official-against-blowing-whistle-inquiry-told-20140611-39xhy.html#ixzz34KVpEwpY ]
Garbage journalism.
Why would you print something with an identity and time mark on it if you wanted to remain anonymous?
Or do you mean having flyers etc printed by a commercial publisher?
By the way, I’m competing for this year’s Fran Barlow Prize for pedantry …
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/hockey-dismisses-budget-critics
Can Hockey say anything more stupid?
I say the budget is severely hurting them, and they are denying it.
“Governments should only help citizens to life’s “starting line” and could never promise “equality in outcomes”, treasurer Joe Hockey has said, dismissing claims the federal budget is “unfair” as misguided “old-style socialism”.
And yet….
“The charge that the budget is unfair has come from many quarters, including Hewson, who argued on Wednesday that it was characterised by “obvious inequity”. The Australian Council of Social Security found that more than $19bn of the $37bn in budget savings came from reductions in spending on programs theat mainly assist low and middle income earners and only $5.7 billion came from tax increases or savings in programs mainly benefiting people on high incomes.”
So Hockey wants to give high paying people a free ride on Welfare, but those who have no job or little money, no welfare, and call it class warfare, old style “socialism”.
This is from the same guys, who are rolling out Fraudband? and continuing to rollout Roads…
Following this week’s Essential my 2PP aggregate has gone to 54.1. This is not its highest value for the term, but will be the highest end-of-week value if no more polls come out by Friday; it will also in that case be the starting value for next week.
For those interested in even the most obscure electoral matters I have recently delivered a 30-page independent report into the impacts of ballot paper damage in the division of Denison at this year’s Tasmanian state election. I have some summary content which draws comparisons with the WA Senate situation here:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/denison-ballot-papers-damage-report.html
and that piece includes links to my report.
Working title of article being written at the moment: “Turnbull PM: Not Likely Any Time Soon”
Mad Dog
I have tracked ‘jigger’ though Google and cannot find it applying to the jack.
It might had been a one-off, as you say.
Cantor got 58% in 2012. If they kind of Murdock/Akin-level brain-snap, they could win it.
Well, whatever the margin in 2012 when Obama’s re-election ground crew was getting out the voters to polls, it will be a tougher task for the Democratic candidate (a sociology prof from same small college as the Repub. candidate, bizarrely) this election.
Are you sure they didn’t actually say in respect of the bouncing hand motion, “jack off”?
Lighten up, man!
KB
I hasten to asset that it was not the Informal Party that sabotagued the letter-opening machine.
FS
I did have an interesting time tracking ‘jack’ as well,and did indeed find your particular usage.
As for ‘lightening up’, I suggest you look in the mirror and consider your three responses to the topic.
[“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”
Really, is there some trickery in Hockey’s statement here?]
He seems to assume that income tax is the only source of government revenue.
Lately Boerwar, you’ve become more and more like a movement looking for a cause.
Always a pleasure to take the opportunity to thank BK for Dawn Patrol links and sagacious witticisms.
It’s certainly been a quiet week on the poll front! Next week should bring Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, and surely we must nearly be due a Reachtel?
Hockey is pursuing the meme of all government expenditure representing ‘other people’s money’.
He might have considered the following:
How many days a year do people work in order to pay for the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and for purchase of klutzfighters.
(The war in Vietnam is costing us, at a minimun, 32,000 times a disability pension per year, for example.)
Hockey is basically saying there is no virtue in supporting a society.
There is only virtue in getting out of the way of greed-is-good spivs.
Used to enjoy the occasional bevvie at Greenlees Mad Dog.
$2 schooners back in the day.
You could get pissed for $10.
That was only at happy hour on a tuesday i might add.
Adding to BK’s comment,
One assumes that a great majority of folks receiving “welfare” either have spent decades paying taxes for others previously or will be paying income taxes for decades in future employment.
[“He said, ‘If you pursue this, a lot of good people will get hurt and you will be on your own. Look Bob, you’ve been lined up to take a safe Labor seat of Melton in the Victorian Parliament,” Mr Kernohan said in his statement.]
Ah, that would be the safe Labor seat of Melton that Bill Shorten gained preselection for — right about this time.
I think the seeds of Mr Kernohan’s grudge against Shorten might lie there…
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-warned-union-official-against-blowing-whistle-inquiry-told-20140611-39xhy.html#ixzz34KZF5yzl
FS
I have been fighting against racism for forty-five years.
We (as in Australians) have made some excellent progress in that time – progress we can all be proud of – but there is a bit to go.
Naturally there is discomfort, hostility and outright aggresion in response from time-to-time, but if we all work together on it we will get there in the end.
Boerwar
How much of other people’s money is paying for Hockey and his cronies to stuff up fhe country?
And how much of other people’s money is going to pay for his generous pension and superannuation entitlements when he is finished stuffing up the country
matt31@2722
Last ReachTEL was conducted on Thursday 8 May and released the day after so if the monthly schedule is being adhered to I’d expect another within days.
The second-last ever Nielsen shouldn’t be far away either.
Well, I’m 64, and I’ve been up against it since I arrive in this country at the age of three and a bit, and most viciously from sadistic bitches in nuns’ uniforms at the age of four and five.
But there are enough real battles out there to be fought against bigots and racists without taking up arms against thoughtless geriatrics over what they call a small white ball.
I don’t doubt your sincerity and I admire your consistency and courage, but sometimes I think we need to more carefully chose our battlelines.
zoomster@2727
I am rather disconcerted that people can be ‘lined up’ for safe Labor seats without a pre-selection process having taken place.
This is one of the things wrong with the Labor party and it looks like we dodged a bullet in Kernohan not ending up with that pre-selection.
[Fulvio Sammut
Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:06 pm | Permalink
Well, I’m 64, and I’ve been up against it since I arrive in this country at the age of three and a bit, and most viciously from sadistic bitches in nuns’ uniforms at the age of four and five.
But there are enough real battles out there to be fought against bigots and racists without taking up arms against thoughtless geriatrics over what they call a small white ball.
I don’t doubt your sincerity and I admire your consistency and courage, but sometimes I think we need to more carefully chose our battlelines.]
Thanks for that. I’ll keep plugging away at the racism stuff. I’ll also keep plugging away at my other hobby horses: fighting The Rapacity, and fighting against bad wars. IMHO, we all just have to do our small bit when and where we can.
b @ 2732
Yep.
[victoria
Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:00 pm | Permalink
Boerwar
How much of other people’s money is paying for Hockey and his cronies to stuff up fhe country?
And how much of other people’s money is going to pay for his generous pension and superannuation entitlements when he is finished stuffing up the country]
That is different.
Time for bed. Good night all.
Night boerwar
Gawd just seen Hockey at the Sydney Institute on Lateline.
Lecturing the poor and middle income people on their obligation to help balance the budget. Sheer. Bloody. Hypocrisy.
Iraq on the boil___
____________
A former Iraqi PM said from Singapore tonight that the only way of defeating the El-Queida like ISIS movenment now,after the capture of most of the niokrth,including Mosul, is by outside intervention …possibly from the US or Turkey….well that seems unlikely given Obama position on such troop[ moves…so what has all the intervention achieved
Will the Iraqis have the gall to ask Abbott for help…after all Howard did send troops…..but I guess that that would arouse enormous oppossition here now…despite the real threat to the Iraqi regime
The war was unpopular when Howard sent troops…now it be impossible
On same night Hockey dumps on equity & equality, US Tsy Sec Lew says income inequality in US is “ultimate test” http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/us-usa-economy-jacklew-idUSKBN0EM17X20140611?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews …
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 5m
Imagine Hockey saying: The ultimate test for all of us will be how inclusive tomorrow’s economy becomes & how widely our economic gains flow
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 3m
Imagine Hockey saying: “The crisis we face today is need to make sure the economy is expanding fast enough to support a growing middle class
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 3m
The US Treasury Lew was responsible for those last two quotes.
One of the better articlesIve read in months: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/09/french-public-debt-audit-illegitimate-working-class-internationalim
Basically argues that debt has been growing without state expenditure rising:itsall about tax cuts, the state paying higher interest to (increasongly unknown) external creditors: both of which were simply political choices.
Debt that “grew in the service of private interests, and not the wellbeing of the people” is illegitmate, and should be treated as such (indeed,is,by small number of states). Austerity is its intended product – and its been deliberately inflated.
Calls for debt audits, and disclosure of creditors.
Bring it on.
mikehilliard @ 2665
[“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”
Really, is there some trickery in Hockey’s statement here?]
So “over” 8.3% of full time work
So 35(+) minutes per day for a 35 hour week?
And more efficient than the 10% Church tithe…
[“The publicly funded health system must be sustainable.
“By introducing a co-payment for Medicare we are able to build a $20 billion Medical Research Future Fund that in the next decade will double medical research funding in Australia.
“This is fair.”]
A 20 Billion dollar research fund is going to make medicare sustainable?
It’s not a question of fair or unfair, Joe, it’s a question of stupidity.
sortius @sortius 11m
.@littlesteve @mansillo it’s becoming clear this budget is designed to essentially kill off low income earners/unemployed
Hokey is an interesting case study of somebody growing into a deluded world of self-importance.
You can see the transformation…manicured hair for image, pin stripe suits, cigars, pompous, bombastic, arrogant and thoroughly out of touch with reality.
He really is like one of those banksters depicted in Yes Minister.
I can imagine he is conned along by his corporate mates who must meet and ring him all the time to pat him on the back, and play to his self importance, make him feel ‘one of them’, all the while laughing at the ease in which he is made a useful fool.
Hokey is become just about everything the general public despise and only saved by the remnance of the old jovial joe image of times past.
Abbott is increasingly disliked, and I can will be seen as a lying, ignorant, thick-head thug.
But Hokey, he wont just be disliked, he will in the end be despised. He is developing the persona that whilst funny in comedy tv, in real life is considered disgusting.
The guy has the air of looking down on everybody and everything, that he is not there for the democracy that elected him, but to pursue his own ends – self-importance is all that he appears to be interested in, and to maintain the delusion he needs to cater to those who play his ego in the corporate world.
Of course it will end badly for Hokey. His corporate mates will leave him like a rag dole on the side of the road once his useful idiot status is gone.
The persona he has built for himself should be a gift from god to cartoonists. They should get to work, he is an easy subject.
AND like true fool that he has become, his need to pander to his self importance is so great that he doesn’t even realise he should right now STFU and let Abbott destroy himself…so he might be popular enough to replace him.
Video of Harry Waxman congressman interviewed by SFerguson on 7.30 re climafe change policy
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-11/waxman-on-abbotts-climate-stance-ahead-of-obama-meeting/5515702
Night all
I have been trying to get my head around the Abbott- climate change bloc speech in Canad-ia, all day.. But I can’t see any sense in it at all.
If China and the US sign up for Carbon pricing, then surely an anti carbon pricing stance will risk Australia becoming a pariah, and then inevitably there will be penalties and perhaps boycotts on our products?
How on earth can Abbott be so reckless? Hasn’t he considered these points? Is he really so beholden to big coal?
There is no need to espouse a belief in climate change to recognise the possible economic benefits of renewable energy and the possibilities of penalties if you defy the way the US and China are going…Incomprehensible…
[“The average working Australian, be they a cleaner, a plumber or a teacher, is working over one month full time each year just to pay for the welfare of another Australian,”]
The average cleaner earns about $36,000 pa, $3,000 per month and pays about $300 per month tax.
The one at my work earns less than that. I’m not sure whether Jo thinks these people earn too much and need to have their incomes cut.
For those interested in Cantor defeat in Primary ballot
He rode the Tiger…and was devouried
+++++++++++
Cantor is/was no favourite of the US Conservative Mag/site
His defeat brings a warning for Repubs who flirt with the Tea Party as he seems to have done.earlier…only to be defeated by an even more extreme right-winger in the primary
They say he “rode the Tea Party Tiger…which devoured him in the end ”
Far from being a “moderate”: Repub(whatever that may look like,he was linked to peoploe like Sheldon Adelson who runs the Repub Jewish Coalition(“The richest jew in the US”as he boasts,and he funds those he likes…who must also love Israel..or no cash)
Adelson also wants a “lower wage ” structure…in a country where the working poor is already a major reality
Cantor ran along with this crowd,who finally found an even more extreme candidate than he
BTW The US Conservative,is an interesting Mag..and tgis article follows much of their anti-Tea Party line
They think the T-Party is mad,and they object to the way Adelson and his gang have made support for Israel central to US policies in the M.East…and Adelson is bitterly anti-union,allowing none in his many enterprises
The” Amercon” says the Tea Party nutters will make the Repiubs unelectable,and they are probably right
The guy that defeated Cantor is even more extreme as they tend to be
Shed no tears for Cantor however…and do read this critique of hime in The Amercon mag.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/eric-cantor-rides-tiger-is-devoured/
____________________________
@FarQU/2748
IS that including GST in goods? or excluding GST goods?