Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @silmaj/1501

    You talk of the debt as if there was no GFC.

    Which is typical of a liberal, who have ignored the GFC.

    Consumer confidence, and consumer spending is what drives the economy and debt up or down. Trying to educate me on what we may or may not end up with is stupid.

  2. Where do we get these morons from?

    [The 54 year old said she will continue risking fines by riding helmet-less to highlight her cause.

    “I firmly believe more people would ride bikes if helmets were optional,’’ she said.

    “It is a very sexist law because a lot of women have maintained hairstyles and would end up with helmet hair — and women have told me that’s one of the factors (for not riding bikes)’’.]

    So now it’s sexist not to prevent brain damage in favour of nice hair.

  3. 1504 Zoid
    You did refer to Clive in your argument against debt. So in a discussion(argument if you choose) I would ask what you know about Clive.

  4. Assuming ABC lawyers have made a formal offer which at least covers Kenny’s costs, then so long as Kenny fails in his action he’ll likely be up for a fair whack of their costs on an indemnity basis. Logically this should be celebrated by News Ltd as saving taxpayer money and “helping reduce Labor’s debt” but in reality can you imagine the pressure on them to drop any claim for payment?

  5. [ So now it’s sexist not to prevent brain damage in favour of nice hair. ]

    Seems like she already has the brain damage. Still, a good undertaker can do wonders with her hair if the need arises! 😉

  6. The conservatives want students to pay more for their education because it will make the students richer in the future. The question needs to be asked, How much does the student benefit from the education, and how much does the country benefit? the only way to split the costs fairly is if we know the answer to this question.

    Let’s have a cost benefit analasis of university education before we decide who pays.

    I would hazard a guess that we benefit more as a nation from tertiary education than the individual benefit to the student.

  7. Hah with Pynes hilarious proposals today to tax the dead I have finally realised that the Liberals don’t really mean it. It’s all just a piece of self-caricature and Performance Art which has now entered the surreal last stage. Any day now I reckon they’ll all stand up and take a bow, and then ask the GG to dissolve Parliament so they can hand back to a party who can actually govern.

  8. @silmaj/1513

    lol, oh god, this is comedy gold.

    You want the truth? How about removing subsidies from larger companies? Fuel Tax Credits Scheme, Negative Gearing, Close Tax holes etc (stop shifting money to overseas accounts – that is costing US $1 trillion dollars), get rid of tax cuts that are costing us every year.

    And Oh yea, the famous PPL scheme, costing us $5.5 billion every single year.

    PPL for 10 years = $55 billion.
    PPL for 15 years = $82.5 billion.
    PPL for 20 years = $110 billion.

    * not including cost blowouts.

  9. Blimey! This is quite different to what Palmer said earlier today about no deals with Abbott.

    Worth reading all the article.

    [ Clive Palmer and Malcolm Turnbull busted in secret dinner meeting, along with head of treasury Dr Martin Parkinson ]

    [ IT was the secret meeting in a Canberra Chinese restaurant that could secure the Budget for the Abbott government.

    Billionaire Clive Palmer sat down for dinner with Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Head of Treasury Martin Parkinson Wednesday night.

    As he left Wild Duck at 10.30pm, Mr Turnbull confirmed to The Daily Telegraph that the Budget had been on the agenda.

    “The Budget is a topic of conversation everywhere,” he said. “There really is not much to say, we have had a pleasant dinner and a good chat.”

    He refused to divulge further details of the meeting.

    Mr Palmer could not confirm these were the “party faithful” he had earlier said he was going to meet. “I just ran into them,” he said with a grin.

    Mr Palmer got into a hire car with the two other mystery diners while Mr Turnbull walked home to his apartment, located nearby.

    Dr Parkinson remained inside the restaurant before leaving through a back exit. ]

  10. @silmaj/1519

    Perhaps I should put in fine print that “I am neither Member, supporter of any political party, and I don’t hand out cards, or go to any political meetings”.

    Truth is we don’t have debt problem, what we have is a job problem.

    Something that Liberals refuse to accept.

  11. Scorpio.


    Parkinson making a late play for his own job? Given his hugely humiliating sinking to the depths with Abbott.


    The thus far failed contestant in Master Chef.

    With Clive The People Eater?


  12. crikey whitey,

    Parky has been more than friendly to Skrek too lately. Still, if Abbott wants him goooone, then kowtowing & crawling to this lot probably won’t help him much!

    Watching him doing the noddy with Hockey trying to sell the budget made me sick!

  13. 1520
    I will refer to your earlier source that Clive, who I would consider non labor or lib is a reference for no debt problem. He refers to IMF or OECD. So I would assume that you have read their report and that if we ever got to the same debt as other western countries things would be different?

  14. Lardybutcute 1515

    It is all too macabre!

    Your observation on Performance Art is so compelling.

    Especially given Bibliothek Brandis.

    It really puts me in mind of extracting hair and gold teeth.

  15. @silmaj/1524

    No, because the liberals would be trying the same stuff as they been doing now, which is Austerity cuts.

    I have read the reports, and I also read the ABS statistics (which tell me the unemployment/employment details).

    They just don’t spend, or rather, hate spending on social programs.

  16. 1527
    The very simple question that is in the public arena.
    Do you think that the debt should go up and if so how much?
    This is not partisan

  17. 1533
    The budget has come out and at this point is unlegislated. So if you are asking me that the coalition is reducing the debt then I cannot say .

  18. If you think the coalition is reducing the debt, you should pay more attention to what they do, not what they say.

  19. OOOH a great big conspiracy theory occurs to me.

    Abbott a guest at a big dinner also attended by Palmer.

    Palmer sneaks out after entrees for his secret rendezvous with Malcolm and Parkinson. Abbott suspicious but stuck.

    Meets up, and secret squirrell business discussed.

    Malcolm to challenge for leadership, with guarantee that budget will be passed by Palmer.

    Palmer to get Ministry a la Hamilton – Smith in Turnbull Government if he succeeds, and the rest of his dopey crew assistant under – secretaryships in unimportant Ministries to keep ’em onside. Also get to be treated as a Party – with perks.

    Palmer promises to pass budget (subject to a few minor changes to make him appear the good guy).

    Rest of community screwed.

    Sound about right?

    This stuff writes itself, as Bushfire might say.

  20. Just a warning shot. I intend to post anything available.

    Some posters, much earlier, talked of Alan Jones. Then Brandis.
    Bit of idle speculation, going on there.

    There is nothing I know of Brandis. Nor have I looked.

    But there is plenty on Alan Jones.

    And it would not breach the I suppose, RDA sections, to simply post the already known and speculated upon. And it is easy to imagine how much Alan Jones hates the ABC.

    Trifle trashy of me and out of my usual, but he did to Julia. No quarter.

    The demons that drive Alan Jones
    October 20, 2006

    Edited extracts from Jonestown by Chris Masters (Allen & Unwin, $49.95)

    Alan Jones’s struggle with his sexuality has defined much of his hidden private life and successful public persona. In an explosive new book, Chris Masters charts a crowded life full of contradictions.

    OVER time I thought of Alan Jones as leading seven lives – not one of them his own. Read on and you will meet them all.

    There is the blokey, foul-mouthed ex-football coach; the courtly, non-swearing charmer of older women; the farmer’s (miner’s/union official’s/teacher’s) son; the thwarted prime minister; the ombudsman of Struggle Street; the Oxford orator; and the hidden homosexual, forever hunting for love among the twenty somethings.

    The masking of his homosexuality is a defining feature of the Jones persona. Jones’s apparent self-belief that, on the one hand, he is damaged and, on the other hand, special, goes a long way to explaining an unusual personality. It informs consistently curious behaviour, his private self frequently intruding on the public self.

    From the start, listening to his radio program, I understood there was a lot worth learning.

    Alan Jones breaches many conventions about what works on radio. He does not run away from “feel-bad” subjects, championing causes such as care for the disabled and respect for victims of mental illness. In Australia’s largest radio market he has dominated ratings for 15 years.

    His power, whether real or perceived, has all manner of princes and premiers bowing before him.

  21. 1542
    Fulvio Sammut

    I doubt it…the LNP really need Palmer. He’s their only hope as far as the budget is concerned, but he has everything to gain and nothing to lose by opposing it. Why would anyone go near the budget? It is toxic sludge.

  22. @silmaj/1538

    Debt should be used to fuel activity (i.e. create jobs), but needs to remove Corporate welfare, and close tax loop holes.

    Considering when Labor left office with peak $370 billion, Joe Hockey pretty much doubled that in less than a year (to $667 billion), I suggest we can have higher debt – fudging the numbers like they did with Labor’s NBN $50 billion – $100 billion dollar..

  23. [1546

    No. But the funny thing is that the more the debt grows we are being bought without knowing.]

    This is a non sequitur. If sold an asset then we would not have acquired a debt. We can either accrue liabilities or dispose of assets…but not both in the one transaction

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