Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Player One 1439.

    ‘The Liberals have a habit of doing things and justifying them by saying Labor did it first – so they’d have no trouble with replacing a PM if they felt it was necessary’.

    It is necessary.

    Love it, Player One.

  2. Sadly it turns out, as always, that someone else wondered about getting HECS from estates before me.

    [The idea was floated in April by the Grattan Institute’s higher education program director, Andrew Norton, who said the government could save more than $800m a year by 2017 if it recovered outstanding student loans from deceased estates and people living overseas.

    The Grattan Institute report argued the government should stop writing off student debt in deceased estates when estates were worth more than $100,000.

    Norton told Guardian Australia the beneficiaries of the existing arrangement were “the children of educated people”.

    “You’ve only got limited funds you can spend on higher education and is this really a sensible use of $1bn?” he said.

    Norton said the reaction to his report about deceased estate student debts had been “surprisingly positive”.

    “I was fully expecting a negative reaction to this when we released the report. But a lot of people felt it was common sense,” he said.]

  4. 1414,1424
    You are only being confused by political language. The pension change that is on the table is referring to a change in which the pension rises may be measured and calculated. A pension cut would be to say that you will get less next time. This is unlikely to happen. I do realize that potential rises may change by the different workings however the political argument of a cut is confusing because who knows what CPI will be.

  5. [ The Grattan Institute estimates the policy, which was not part of the budget, could save up to $800 million a year. ]

    At an average of $30,000 owing on their HECS bill, it would need to take nearly 27,000 estates owing that every year to reach that $800M figure.

    Somebody has been at the drinks cabinet again at Grattan, me thinks.

  8. Steve Clements

    24 tonight showed Bill in QT asking about science spending … they cut to a very lonely Dennis Jensen sitting in the back row all alone…. Credlin would have gone balletic this morning… problem for Tony… Dennis was nodding in support of the question ( I think )… trouble brewing.
    Denis is a scientist, he will stand for scientific principals & what he thinks is right, it’s what he has worked his whole life for….

  10. Howdy Scorpio

    The article said there is an adjustment for writing off those HECS debts in the Budget. If someone knew more about it, they could probably tell us how much revenue the government writes off in uncollected HECS debts due to death.

    But I agree $800M seems an awful lot.

  13. Will dumping Abbott actually achieve anything? Yes he’s crazy, but this government isn’t the Tony show. Most of the rest are just as ideological crazy on most issues as he is. The moderates are long gone. So what would really change?

  14. Sceptic @ 1458

    My thoughts exactly. Dennis must be at least considering it, and so would a few in the ranks of Labor. After all, Labor have form for convincing others to see the light, even if it hasn’t worked out well, long term.

  15. Far out, Scorpio!

    Not that I know the slightest thing about the game, but did I see that they were unbeaten for nineteen in a row?

    Anyway. Nice statue.

  18. We only had a total of 40,400 casualties in the whole of WW2. To lose 27,000 ex students every year would take some doing.

    Black Plague, maybe?

  21. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/abc-boss-cant-say-how-much-taxpayers-have-spent-fighting-news-corp-columnist-chris-kennys-defamation-case/story-fni0cx12-1226934649682

    This actually sickens me. Not only does a hack with his own column sue another media outlet for defamation (which is outrageous enough – even Bolt says he wouldn’t stoop so low) but instead of being rightfully ridiculed, his media outlet AND THE GOVERNMENT essentially demand that the publicly owned media outlet pay him damages as a result (apparently he’s asking for around $70k).

    Shameless, bordering on corruption.

  22. silmaj/1454

    bzz, wrong, the CPI indexation is one calculation out of 3 which decides the current rate of Pension, see Ruawakes post and my post earlier about what decides the rate is calculated at.

    What Abbott gov is doing or trying to do is remove the other two measures, and use the lowest measure for the Pension, as per ruawakes earlier posting at 1016 (see below – on page 21):

    Pensions are indexed by 3 measures

    CPI
    Pension CPI (Different basket of goods)
    or
    Average Male ordinary earnings.

    The highest of these is used when pensions are increased.

    By linking it to only CPI pensioners will be disadvantaged and pensions lower.

    ——

    If you remove the two highest measures, you will get the lowest point, that is your new Pension rate.

    Male Total Average Weekly Earnings (MTAWE) is what is called for the current calculation.

    In a submission to the Goverment (on Matthews Report into the indexation of Military and other Commonwealth Superannuation):
    http://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=716f909e-b5ae-4e78-ac52-7a6cc9d6fc8a

    “The purpose of pension indexation is to maintain the purchasing power of YOUR pension. Until 1997
    CPI was considered the relevant index but the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) concluded that
    “the tight nexus between movements in the CPI and wage and salary adjustments no longer exists.”
    In 2001 ABS said that ” … CPI is not a measure of the cost of living.”

    “In 1997 the Government acted to maintain the purchasing power of Age and other welfare pensions by
    changing indexation to CPI or MTAWE whichever was the greater. More recently it included another
    index factor, the New Pensionary and Beneficiary Living Cost Index (PBLCI).”

  23. Not to mention Mathias Cormann. As a potential contender.

    Who turned up today in the Senate with a brand new shaven back and sides. Heaps of room for the Stahlhelm.

    Looked every bit the picture your average xenophobe would love to elect.

  24. Just saw an ad for tonight’s ‘A Current Affair’ on a show I recorded last night. Dole Bludgers on the beach. “It’s like a holiday” an alleged bludger said. Given that Rudd/Gillard/Rudd made little or no change to the Howard arrangements, there can’t be that many ‘dole bludgers’. In any case, what are you supposed to do between filling out endless job applications and travelling by public transport to job interviews? You’re not allowed to go to the beach?

    I don’t watch commercial news and current affairs. Is Channel 9 running interference for Abbott like Newscorp?

  28. To prove my point about Right Wing think tanks being out of touch…
    “Conservative think tank the Institute of Public Affairs has warned the Abbott government it risks breaking an election promise if it abandons plans to repeal and re-write race hate laws.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ipa-urges-tony-abbott-and-george-brandis-to-stick-with-flawed-race-law-changes-20140528-394o1.html#ixzz3310ELAHr

    These sort of lunatic comments will terrify the Liberal backbench.

    Real logic.. worry about breaking this one stupid little promise & hope everyone will ignore the 50 whatever serious ones, yah sure!

  29. 1460

    Collecting HECS debt from deceased estates, over a certain size sounds like a good idea.

    The $800,000,000 figure includes people living overseas, who would comprise the vast bulk of the written off HECS debt that may be recoverable.

  32. FoxNews and Shock-jocks like Limbaugh have kicked the crap out of Obama non-stop for withdrawing too many troops too soon from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as for his failure to send mountains of heavy weaponry into Libya, Syria and the Ukraine.

    Then there’s the egregious humiliation that for the first time since the Monroe Doctrine commenced nearly 200 years ago Latin America has become largely independent from the USA military/corporate domination which had comprised two major wars, many dozens of brief military incursions (to use Kissinger’s famous parlance), regime changes by CIA etc. Where, Murdoch’s Minions bleat, is Obama’s Granada (population 90,000) victory, which Ronald Reagan’s spin doctors and Clint Eastwood’s epic boasted had restored the nation’s pride? Even Noam Chomsky speaks of this as being one the brightest developments in world events this Century.

    Luckily, the Libertarian wing of the Republicans are opposed to USA having any overseas military bases, let alone wars. Instead the Repubs in Congress are able to unite for their witch-hunt hearings about Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi.

    Please note this is a follow-on from my Obama posts prior to the terrific State of Origin match, as I’m not a propounder in the characterisations of who is the Good, the Bad and the Ugly in the Ukraine conflict.

    Night all!

  35. Silly Maj.

    I am not surprised.

    Why is it that so much is excluded?

    As was pointed out, perhaps by Briefly, the value of say, property and negatively geared properties is excluded.

    Which any dumb cluck would realise as value rises every increasingly, certainly contributes to the cost of living.

    And costs we the taxpayer a massive amount.

  38. Was there ever any reason why a HECS debt, like any other debt, couldn’t always have been recovered from the debtors’s deceased estate?

  39. Bob’s Uncle

    One for the lawyers ..
    Given the ruling against the ABC, that it was essentially a JOKE in poor taste, if Kenny appeals the ruling ( against it only being a joke) & loses & then only gets $1 damages award, will he get costs on the first ruling having refused ABC offer of compromise.

    Maybe the ABC wins after all ?

  40. 1486
    Zoid you must think I don’t have parents who know about the pension. The only argument to be had is what it should rise by and what the country can afford. It won’t go backwards ever.

  42. I am confused the CPI increases every year.

    Not necessarily.

    Re Hecs from the deceased. Surely a simple insurance arrangement could be developed. No need to raid anyone’s estate.

  44. 1488
    I would have thought that hecs would have been treated as a normal unpaid debt against an estate.
    Perhaps it is govt policy to right it off.

  45. Fulvio
    The HECS debt only became due & payable after exceeding an income per year threshold, it wasn’t means tested against assets , therefore shouldn’t be treated as a lump sum debt upon death.
    It’s immoral to change the contract retrospectively

  46. @silmaj/1490

    You must think we pretty silly to believe the old “what the country can afford” argument.

    It’s the same old liberal argument even we had money in the bank, all they did was spend it on planes, dinners, and roads.

  47. 1496 Zoid
    I hope you know what happens if the country spends more than what it can afford for an extended period of time? If you don’t look up UK USA and see how they are now and look at the debt they have.

  48. [ The HECS debt only became due & payable after exceeding an income per year threshold, it wasn’t means tested against assets , therefore shouldn’t be treated as a lump sum debt upon death. ]

    Interesting. Wonder if the ALP will use something this to imply that Abbott and Co are attacking the universality of HECS?? Besides which, the kiddies of wealthy people dont get HECS debts. Mum and Dad pay the fees up front.

  50. @silmaj/1497

    Ah yes, 1 country that spent billions on a war which John Howard (despite public backlash) agreed too.

    The other country is still largely in debt and will be for some time though the conservatives are in power and have created a mess with their Universal Payment System.

    Next please? We can go all night, while you move goal posts.

    As Clive points out, we are 5x lower debt than almost any other country in the OECD.

    Seriously, you are moving goal posts.

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