Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has a somewhat less bruising result for the Abbott government than it has lately been accustomed to, as Campbell Newman’s state government girds itself for a difficult by-election.

Galaxy has produced a poll of federal voting intention in Queensland shows the Coalition leading 52-48, representing a swing to Labor since the election of 5%, with further detail presumably forthcoming courtesy of the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: The primary votes are 33% for Labor (steady since February, as is the two-party result), 41% for the Coalition (steady), 7% for the Greens (steady) and 12% for Palmer United (up one). The poll also has a surprisingly high 48% in support of the GP co-payment with 50% opposed, 46% and 48% for increasing the GST, and 25% and 72% for raising the pension age to 70.

In other Queensland news, it today emerged that a state by-election looms in the inner Brisbane seat of Stafford following the resignation of Liberal National Party member Chris Davis. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [He can’t stand aside claiming ill health as nobody will buy it.]

    They could claim it was mental illness. That’d be believable.

  2. H Wagg
    Abbott will have to be dragged out of the PM’s chair by a team of draught-horses. A team of six each with hooves the size of a family pizza, even then he will drag the chair with him.

  3. Jolyon Wagg Yep the Barry O’Farrell exit option.

    I suspect what will be playing on Abbott’s mind right now is whether he gets to keep his Parliamentary super/pension entitlements. He’s unemployable elsewhere so has to think this thru.

    If he resigned tomorrow from the PMship can anyone advise how this would affect his income/super?

  4. lefty e@51

    He can’t stand aside claiming ill health as nobody will buy it.

    They could claim it was mental illness. That’d be believable.

    Yes, they could have a couple of men in white coats enter the chamber of the HoR and drag him out… 👿

  5. Puff

    [Abbott will have to be dragged out of the PM’s chair by a team of draught-horses. A team of six each with hooves the size of a family pizza, even then he will drag the chair with him.]

    You are probably right…sigh

  6. [Why no complaints then?]

    Several reasons.
    Most sex crimes [CSA, rape] are never reported.
    Most sex crimes are committed by persons well known to the victim and the family of the victim frequently within the family of the victim.
    Most perpetrators of sex crimes are respected and respectable people, men of prestige and authority within the community. Strange isn’t it?
    Most victims who report sex crimes are disbelieved or ignored. Privately and publicly. This is the big reason – the one that counts the most.
    Most sex crimes that are investigated by whatever authority group is involved result in no action.
    Most attempts of victims to report crimes involve great cost to them in personal and emotional terms often, usually, for no positive result.
    Most sex crimes occur in private or surreptitiously if in public and victims are disbelieved if they attempt to report such.
    Many sex crimes are reported, but nobody knows that, the reports are ignored or whitewashed and the perpetrator continues.
    Many later exposures of sex crimes eg Harris, acknowledge that complaints were made at the time, sometimes frequently by several persons.
    But ignored.

  7. Not at all sure why Qld is so compelling a reason to introduce a new main thread.

    Leaving that aside, could someone tell me how I can post under a different name?

    Not seeking to conceal my identity, just for fun.

  8. Bemused
    JO nova still runs her blog. I won’t sully this place with the link. It looks like the same people are saying the same things and there is a flurry of excitement because “Lord” Monkton has posted an hour-long youtube vid.
    The Uni of Queensland is in their sites as JN is complaining about some report or data or somesuch is not being reported.
    The may be no truckers but the nutters still abound.

  9. William, 62, why not, it would be a better site by a quantum leap. hell, might garner some crikey subscribers. You have the market at the moment but wouldnt rest on your laurels

  10. May be able to help you out.

    Rossmore. May be able to help you out.

    In this density, is something about ‘entitlements’ for PMs. I was looking for the very same thing you are querying.

    Seemed pretty discretionary. In terms of any slightly ‘serving’ PM. A la unforgiveable. I wonder how many slightly serving Oppos or whatever we may be paying the extra odd quid.

  11. Because at that point it becomes a social media page rather than a political discussion blog. I’m not aware of a single serious news or commentary site that disagrees with me about this.

  12. Whatever, Rossmore.

    Should you be concerned for the financial well being in slumberous retirement, either on the back bench or in the local well funded Park, of our Knights, Dames and other deserved, you will be reassured.

    Including our glorious PM.

  13. Actually, William.

    I thought you said some not so far off time away, that it was about bandwith or some such.

  14. I may be.

    But I am reasonably sure that you were obliged to finally respond to this and further challenges by one such. In the nature of.

    my say 727
    Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    benefit facts,,, see the adds for the nbn.

    dam shame this place was not modern so the videos could of been shown

  15. crikey whitey

    About to go out as only 8.55pm here on a beautiful (still light of course) evening Did you get the photo on your email I sent?

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Looks like Coalition budget solidarity lasted all of ten days.
    Julia Baird explains what is behind the student protests.
    Kevin Andrews and his pious bastardry.
    And this. you mongrel Andrews, will go off the scale!
    David Marr on what makes Abbott tick.
    Judith Andrews punctures the Coalitions arguments over the “explosion of DSP recipients”. How unfair she is having the gall to use factual information!
    Mike Carlton – good as usual.
    Lenore Taylor – the verdict is in. The budget is inequitable.
    Mike Seccombe with a long essay on how the mining companies have left us with a huge environmental mess to clean up.

  17. Section 2 . . .

    The costs of simplistic, populist thinking.
    Would sheiks such as this qualify as school chaplains? (BTW my email to Pyne on these matters is still unacknowledged).
    Great stuff that conservative DNA!
    Abbott said Frances “won” the scholarship. So what were the rules governing the applications, the judgment process and the names of the other applicants? Oh, there weren’t any?
    And trouble over Louise as well.
    The stellar minister David Johnston does it again.
    Michael Gordon posits that Abbott and Hockey might be political dead meat.
    More details on the education changes.
    Alan Moir rolls out the budget fire brigade.

    Pat Campbell take the ridiculous George Christensen to Asia for a look see.

  18. Apparently my Green colleagues in England have done pretty well in the 2014 council elections. In a few places they are the official opposition. The UKIP (contrary to BBC claims) has had a disappointing outing. The Tories and the Lib-Dems have done dreadfully. The Lib-Dems lost all six seats in Liverpool and 9 in Manchester. I hear that membersip is up to about 16,000

    It’s sometimes said that ‘it’s not easy being Green’ but today at least, there’s something to smile about over in the Old Dart. A whole swathe of folks have come around to the idea that we, rather than the ugly parties of the far right, are the real opposition to British conservatism.

  19. One thing is clear, at the next election Australia gets to decide on it’s core values. The result will be interesting.

  20. Good Morning

    The quietest day in the weekly political cycle. A day voters get together for their various community activities. A day Coalition backbenchers realise Abbott has destroyed their political careers.

    A day Labor, the Greens and PUP get the message to block block block.
    A bad budget leading to months of political chaos.
    As a result this budget will be remembered at the next election and tax cuts will not undo the damage. Just as tax cuts did no save Howard from the damage of WorkChoices.

  21. Make no mistake, this budget is as nasty a piece of work as you will ever see. In the budget they talk about “Earning or Learning” if you don’t have a job then you should be studying to get one.
    Sounds reasonable until you take a step back and consider the full context.
    If you don’t have a job you must study, they are also deregulating the university’s and already we are seeing uni’s, TAFEs and private colleges talking about doubling fee’s.
    That’s OK you say because you’ll have HECS. Yep, but… The budget changes HECS so that you have to repay it as soon as you earn a minimum wage thus forcing you into poverty AND the budget effectively doubles the interest you pay.
    To top it of the budget has provision for HECS debts to be financed, commoditised and sold.
    Once people realize what they are in for they’ll take any job to avoid this debt trap, effectively meaning low paid “Student” jobs become something in higher demand thus allowing employers to reduce wages.
    Get it yet? See who’s winning here? Education providers earn more (a good return for handing out free degrees to Abbotts daughter Hey), banks and financiers get access to a market of products that are “money for jam” and employer’s get to pay the most vulnerable less.
    Who has no chance of winning? Even if you do manage to get a job you have a debt that keeps you under the thumb of business for the next 20 years.
    If you have no job you must study, to study you must sign up to a loan that ensures you live in a poverty trap for years.
    Share this post if you have kids so that everyone understands. The rich get richer, the poor get the picture.

  22. BK

    [Back to the future in Tennessee.]

    Utah and Wyoming are planning to go even further back to the future.

    [Now state representatives in Wyoming have directed officials to draft a firing-squad bill to be brought before the next legislative session.

    And in neighbouring Utah, a Republican senator said that he will introduce firing-squad legislation at the next session too]

  23. “It’s not on the register therefore I don’t have to declare it” is a very dodgy excuse.

    I doubt the register can – or intends to – list every single item that an MP should declare.

    If, say, the register did not specifically cover (for example – it well may, this is just for the sake of argument) you mysteriously winning a lottery for $1 million when you were the only ticket holder, does that mean that it would be OK not to declare such a win?

    The register can obviously not be prescriptive. It has to lay down general rules about what is and it not acceptable, rather than itemise items.

    If it did the latter, people would find ways of giving ‘gifts’ to politicians – thus undermining the whole purpose of the register.

  24. I get the Age delivered on Sat / Sun – by mistake I have had the Australian delivered today. I have read it this morning for the first time in a long time – I can not get over how biased it is; basically a cheers squad for the Govt and totally against Labor – front page says ‘Labor scare pain laid bare’!!! The article underneath this unbelievable drivel – realize I should not be surprised as it is Murdoch’s flagship but people actually believe me this quality journalism; scary stuff!!

  25. fredex

    add to that that the victims were young at the time. Often young victims don’t actually recognise the behaviour as ‘wrong’, or are too intimidated to tell anyone.

    Yes, Harris harrassed adults – but these incidents seem to be relatively minor, of the ‘euggh, this guy is a creep’ variety. Not downplaying them, but they are of the ‘once off’ type that doesn’t get reported, and thus a pattern of behaviour isn’t established.

  26. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for the links this morning. Love Mike Carlton’s column – spot on.

    [The other startling thing is the sheer muddle of it all. No one in the government, from the prime minister on down, seems to know when the rise in university fees will cut in, or just who will have to pay the new doctor tax of $7 a visit. When Abbott and Joe Hockey tried to faff their way through this stuff on Wednesday with bland assurances they were swiftly contradicted by the Australian Medical Association and a gaggle of university vice-chancellors.


    Wonder if Hockey will be reshuffled away from treasurer? He really has been woeful in his efforts to sell his dog of a budget.

  27. It is good to see that firing squads are being retintroduced in the US. About time, IMHO.

    Were I to be executed with choice of exit means, I would choose a firing squad.

    You are dead before you hit the ground.

    Just to spread the love, and to make sure the job is done properly, I would choose 16 batshit crazy gun nuts for the death squad.

    Allowing them a weapon of choice would mean that plenty of high calibre people would apply.

    I would insist on the range being short – say 5 metres – so that the gunnies would gain upfront satisfaction of seeing consequence of their actions.

    The splatter work would be done on a big placcy bag that would just be rolled up so that the human mess clean up could be efficient.

    In a gesture towards positive discrimination, I would insist that there are more women than men in the duty squad.

    Relatives of prime ministers would get first choice – think of it as a sort of scholarship.

  28. Mike Seccombe with a long essay on how the mining companies have left us with a huge environmental mess to clean up.

    Thanks BK. As a Senior Chemical and Environmental Engineer in Qld I found that most interesting. Whilst it is generally true, it is not for want of historical regulatory requirements, rather, the application of the laws, the exemptions and the lack of resources at DEHP and NRM. If there is no enforcement, too many companies do not have the ethical fortitude to do the right thing, so they do the cheapest – nothing. “If we are not going to get caught, why spend the money?” This attitude has significantly hurt our business over the last few years, and it is openly given as the reason for not doing what is required in both a regulatory and ethical sense.On top of that, the “green tape” is now being removed – that is, the regulations are being now removed in the name of “efficiency and jobs”.

  29. The Australian went totally to the dogs about 5 years ago. I know lot of people who still buy it or subscribe online to it. Almost all of them are lefties who seem to like reading to make themselves angry.

    If all educated, liberal-minded people would stop reading it completely, as I have done, even Rupert ‘a compliant board and co-investors might force him to shut it down. As far as I can see, it is directed at a tertiary-educated audience who are knowledgeable about, and intensely interested in, Australian politics and society. Everybody knows that this group, which also consumes ABC products, is overwhelmingly left-leaning. So the Australian really represents a form of trolling on a grand scale.

    Its impact on politics is just about zilch. I reckon the number of swinging voters who read it could probably be counted on the finger of one finger.

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