Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has a somewhat less bruising result for the Abbott government than it has lately been accustomed to, as Campbell Newman’s state government girds itself for a difficult by-election.

Galaxy has produced a poll of federal voting intention in Queensland shows the Coalition leading 52-48, representing a swing to Labor since the election of 5%, with further detail presumably forthcoming courtesy of the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: The primary votes are 33% for Labor (steady since February, as is the two-party result), 41% for the Coalition (steady), 7% for the Greens (steady) and 12% for Palmer United (up one). The poll also has a surprisingly high 48% in support of the GP co-payment with 50% opposed, 46% and 48% for increasing the GST, and 25% and 72% for raising the pension age to 70.

In other Queensland news, it today emerged that a state by-election looms in the inner Brisbane seat of Stafford following the resignation of Liberal National Party member Chris Davis. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. 1

    I see you have skirted around using the word (if it is indeed a word) actually specifically banned in comment moderation guideline 7 by using the word it is meant to specifically ban.

  2. I would have though that any party facing Palmer at the next election would be in favour of donation caps.

  3. “I can’t recall” seems to be a recurring motif of late of the LNP and its acolytes..

    Three words that absolve blame and responsibility.

    Very Orwellian. You dont need a fascist State. You just never recall wrongdoing. Move on.

  4. Sprocket 10

    Painfully, slowly, against all their better instincts our MSM are slowly, painfully, drawing the dots together.

  5. The story WhiteHouseGate story just keeps on trickling out, and not looking good for the Lying Friar

    [The Whitehouse Institute of Design has tonight denied ever lobbying Prime Minister Tony Abbott over education policy or the length of time his government takes to accredit its tertiary courses.

    The Prime Minister’s office appears more circumspect – a spokesperson stating that the Prime Minister “does not recall” ever being lobbied by the owner of the design school, Leanne Whitehouse.

    Mr Abbott also has “no recollection” of any discussion regarding government policy in relation to the college with Les Taylor, the chairman of Whitehouse, a generous Liberal Party donor and a personal friend of the Abbott family.

    There’s only one problem: Leanne Whitehouse did lobby the Prime Minister over education policy and the accreditation of Whitehouse courses. And she did it in front of 400 witnesses, with a few drinks under her belt, before whisking the Prime Minister away to a private VIP function where the lobbying intensified, and the Dom Perignon – two cases of it – flowed freely.

    Documents and testimony provided to New Matilda reveal that on December 3 last year, the Prime Minister attended Whitehouse’s 25th anniversary celebrations, an event which also showcased the work of its graduating students, including Frances Abbott.

    It was by all accounts a gala event, with more than 400 people in attendance, including the Prime Minister’s wife Margaret.]

  6. Just been watching a report of the Rolf Harris trial.

    A long time ago, back in the 1990s, she told me that she had once been cornered by Harris as he attempted to put the hard word on her using lewd gestures and fairly unequivocal words.

    Her boyfriend at the time turned up unexpectedly and Harris backed off.

    My wife wasn’t a teenager or anything like that. She was 23 at the time. This was all a decade or two before the current controversy.

  7. 14

    The IPA wanted Abbott to emulate Whitlam, so now he is the PM most at risk of being taken down by a Whitehouse since Whitlam!

  8. I suppose that’s the lesson from Whitehousegate.

    Doesn’t matter how tight the disclosure requirements are, the caps on donations, the registers of interests, the spivs, lobbyists and rent seekers will eventually find a way around them to curry favour with the LNP.

    Abbott was clearly a prime target and what better than a non-disclosable, secret, under the counter $60K donation to his daughter. If Whitehorse is above board why is it stonewalling every question put to it by the Guardian.

  9. Rossmore

    Simply why didnt Abbott put it on the disclosure register. After all. He put clothes given to his daughters by fashion stores on the register

  10. William

    Bludgertrack is currently showing a 7.6% swing to Labor in Queensland while this latest poll is showing 5%.

    Given that you have sometimes expressed reservations about the small size of the state samples you have used in Bludgertrack, from the national polls, should we perhaps regard these Galaxy figures as likely being closer to the mark?

  11. And thank god for the Guardian, Margo Kingston, New Matilda, the IA, Twitter and others for maintaining the rage.

    Fairfax and the ABC are asleep at the wheel.

  12. Victoria

    I have no doubt that Abbott knew the $60K scholarship was dodgy as shit. He also probablysought advice that it was within the rules and therefore no requirement to disclose. He feels safe in that knowledge.

  13. From previous thread…
    bemused@1615 on BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor | The Poll Bludger


    On my commute into the melbourne cbd every second billboard seems to be a private education provider promising stellar careers for prospective students if they sign up for a course.

    Those billboards are not cheap. Ipso facto there is huge money to be made in private education provision. The budget gives these private providers a massive free kick by allowing students to pay for their course via HECS type arrangement.

    Dont believe a word from Pyne that they will be closely regulated. It will suck scarce education $ into a handful of spiv providers. Those same spivs who funded Frances Abbotts mickey mouse design course.

    There are already quite a few who have gone bust leaving students who have paid their fees stranded. And that includes some students from overseas so it does reputational damage to Australia.

    An incoming Labor Govt should do a big crack-down on them to weed out the shonks. i.e. most of them.

  14. From previous thread:


    I can’t fathom how it’s possible to accurately model a meaningful Queensland 2PP when there’s already a PUP seat now and potentially more next election. PB’s with psephological expertise might be able to clarify this for one benighted as moi.

    The number of seats PUP could win has no impact on the state 2PP but it does affect modelling conclusions drawn from it.

    A problem for PUP is that in every federal seat where PUP were close to making the final two in 2013 it is Labor they were close to beating. So if PUP and Labor are both going up at the LNP’s expense then to win seats they have to go up by at least a few points more than Labor do. I don’t think current Qld federal polling would give them any seats above Fairfax. They might get lucky somewhere though.

  15. And another from previous thread…
    bemused@1616 on BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor | The Poll Bludger


    Mikehilliard … thanks.

    I weep at the death by a thousand cuts of the public TAFE system. The rot started in Victoria under the last ALP State Gov who were bewitched by Treasury bright sparks into thinking a private TAFE market was the answer to skills shortages. It has created a whole army of private education rent seekers desperately trying every trick to squeeze money out of public education.

    The TAFEs with their long and valued focus on supporting disadvantaged students have been rolled by this tsunami. The only public TAFES that will survive are those that adopt the approach of the private providers and focus on profiteering from their students.

    They’ll start on secondary education next.

    Soon ‘public education’ will be a sad distant memory.

    I cant understand why the ALP doesnt draw a line in the sand and issue policies committing to stop this madness.

    Skills shortages you say?

    What skills shortages?

    A bit problem is that employers seem to want the ‘perfect match’ these days and that is like chasing unicorns. They should settle for someone who has the basic training gained at Uni or TAFE and be prepared to train them in the specifics of their requirement.

    What we have here folks is not a ‘skills shortage’ but an ‘unwillingness to train’.

    Professor Peter Cappelli at Wharton University in the US has written a lot on this. See for example:

  16. RE: Rolf Harris. I guess his defense will be amongst others, well that’s just the way it was in the 70’s.
    Bit of ‘ows your father, nudge nudge wink wink. Me and jimmy, just a coupla likely lads, no harm done.
    Just all clean innocent fun.

  17. So, projected federal expenditures:

    This year:
    LNP budget: $412.5b
    ALP budget: $409.1b

    + 2 years
    LNP budget: $443.9b
    ALP budget: $443.7b

    ‘Budget repair’ is just another lie. All of the savage cuts to young people, old people, sivk people, students is directed to other spending.

    *This* is what class war looks like.

  18. [Given that you have sometimes expressed reservations about the small size of the state samples you have used in Bludgertrack, from the national polls, should we perhaps regard these Galaxy figures as likely being closer to the mark?]

    I wouldn’t go that far. I suspect this poll is probably a little on the generous side for the Coalition. You can take it as evidence that the 7.6% swing in BT is likely to be on the high side – and indeed, it will very likely to cause the BT result to come down a little next week.

  19. Hey Bemused 27 … we are in furious agreement … I suppose that’s what a federal LNP Gov does.

    Forces us to focus on the issues that matter, not the Rudd/Gillard history wars.

    Can we agree on that? A futile question I suppose, but I live in hope.

  20. Uhmm, the Rolf Harris trial is not over yet. So how about we wait until there is a verdict. We are still at the “alleged” stage.

  21. [This year:
    LNP budget: $412.5b
    ALP budget: $409.1b

    + 2 years
    LNP budget: $443.9b
    ALP budget: $443.7b ]

    Most instructive.
    Do they really think not increasing by CPI = effort to deal with alleged ‘budget emergency’?

    Completely fraudulent politics.

  22. [BB

    Harris is a classic sexual deviant]

    When it was announced Harris would go on trial, my wife just tuirned to me and said, “Told ya!”.

  23. Is Victoria Rollinson a PBer?

    PB seems to have quite a few characters getting media airplay of one sort or or another.

    BB, Finnegans, KB. Then there’s the leakers, Ghost, James J.

    And I suspect BK is a first look of the day for many journos.

    Not to mention WB being a player in the psephology estate.

    Kinda Oz’s own HuffPost.

    But Crikey should be doing a lot more to support PB. Why cant we post pictures and video a la twitter for example??

  24. Henry@39

    How could have Harris behavior become apparent earlier Bemused?
    Plus at this stage he is not guilty of anything.

    The alleged behaviour appears to have occurred decades ago.

    Why no complaints then?

  25. A good one from Sam de Brito

    What did you expect from Tony Abbott?
    [My, my, aren’t the little piggies squealing?

    While peals of distress issue from the electorate over the federal budget, I’m moved to ask the 53.49 per cent of people who voted for the Coalition – “what did you expect?”

    Of course, rusted-on conservatives knew what they were getting with Abbott and are no doubt shifting an extra $50K into their trust or super fund to cover the uptick in junior’s uni fees. They saw this coming, it’s just what they ordered.

    However, the millions of Australians who’ve now staggered away from the government – like drunks leaving a CBD nightclub stunned beers cost $15 – dropping the Coalition’s primary vote to 35 per cent? What did they expect?

    While the rest of the globe battled debt crises and stagnating economies, did you sleepwalk through the election campaign? Do you need to be reminded who wears which colours on the field?

    Conservatives don’t get into politics to protect welfare benefits or uplift the poor, so why are you surprised a government comprised of them does neither?]

  26. The Libs are in a difficult position.

    They made a huge fuss about Labor dumping a first term PM but now find themselves with a PM who is quickly becoming a national and international embarrassment.

    They can’t just dump him.

    He can’t stand aside claiming ill health as nobody will buy it.

    Perhaps WhitehouseGate allows a face saving solution. Abbott stands aside for what is painted as a minor technical breach of the rules. He claims that his high ethical standards prevent him from continuing and his colleagues pretend to be disappointed to see him go. Problem solved.

  27. Jolyon @48
    If Abbott was literaly stabbed in the back by his colleagues, the media would report it as an orderly transfer of power.

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