Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has a somewhat less bruising result for the Abbott government than it has lately been accustomed to, as Campbell Newman’s state government girds itself for a difficult by-election.

Galaxy has produced a poll of federal voting intention in Queensland shows the Coalition leading 52-48, representing a swing to Labor since the election of 5%, with further detail presumably forthcoming courtesy of the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: The primary votes are 33% for Labor (steady since February, as is the two-party result), 41% for the Coalition (steady), 7% for the Greens (steady) and 12% for Palmer United (up one). The poll also has a surprisingly high 48% in support of the GP co-payment with 50% opposed, 46% and 48% for increasing the GST, and 25% and 72% for raising the pension age to 70.

In other Queensland news, it today emerged that a state by-election looms in the inner Brisbane seat of Stafford following the resignation of Liberal National Party member Chris Davis. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. Tom

    Now that you mention it, I do recall the challenge mentioning both the Sale Diocese and the Diocese of Melbourne.

    I wish I had photocopied everything.

    Unfortunately, I’m not an executor of my father’s will, so I didn’t think to take the originals or get copies.

    After I challenged my father’s will, the executors had to act on behalf of my father, and so thought I was challenging their authority.

    Despite the ruling, in favour of all siblings, that relationship hasn’t been repaired, despite my win, and their access to my father’s rightful property.

    I hope they’ve retained my parents’ documents. Luckily I have most of them.

  2. Those publications are exposing Liberal double dealing & corruption on multiple fronts.
    Murdoch will have no choice but to follow or he will lose his readership. </i?

    What readership? The 350,000 that read The Australian during the week, or the Brickies reading the DT?

  3. [ The alternative is to make some really dishonest underhand deals, so who can he buy in the parliament?… ]

    WHAT!! A Senior Liberal make dishonest deals!!! Thats like saying they would accept some sort of compromised donations and gifts…………oh yeah……….

  4. BB. Or anyone. Pondering Abbott.

    No idea if you have read David Marr today or any day.

    I reckoned Marr was seriously sucked in by Abbott. In his what, interview of say three years ago.

    Marr has had to seriously reconsider. Without conceding. That he was sucked in.

    Was it the Saturday Paper today?

    I reckon Marr is absolutely bewildered. He should have known that the chameleon of so many coats would have fooled him as much as Abbott has fooled not only the voters but his own.

    I would love for David Marr to get to grips with his judgement.

  5. Happy bday crikey 🙂

    Btw, if there is a DD, and the liberals loose, would that give Tony a way out of leadership? And Disappear into the night?

  6. psyclaw

    their fuss about Rudd/Gillard didn’t stop them replacing a State Premier and a Territory leader when they wanted to…and they don’t seem to have had much qualms about acting in ways they condemned in Opposition, either.

    So who knows!

  7. And ffs don’t pretend it’s about “sustainability” or “future prosperity”.

    And they should stop lying that it’s about the ‘disaster’ left by their predecessors / opponents.

    The Libs are cowards. They lack the courage of their convictions. They want to remake the country but won’t even try to sell their vision to Australians, let alone allow the country to vote on it. In fact, the vision is unsellable because at its core is self interest, and outside the nation’s boardrooms, executive suites and exclusive clubs where Old Money gets together, it’s a stinking dead rat. So they have to resort to lies, disinformation and racist dog-whistling to get enough of the punters onside.

    The current incarnation of the Liberal Party is contemptible.

  8. Don’t know why but I spent a couple of hours working out what the next Senate might look like in 2017 based on recent polls but I probably should soften the numbers a bit. I was expecting something similar to 2010 and then occurred that with the PUP it’s gonna be hard to put everthing into account. We might probably see a lot of 2-2-1-1 states, except in Queensland where it’s an odd mess to even start figuring out why they still love the LNP Feds there even though Newman is making state LNP look really bad.

    If we even go to a DD, imagine how that 13 slices of the pie would go.

  9. CTar1

    Thanks,so.

    Silmaj. And thanks. Port winning horribillous.

    Nothing like Abbott’s Annus Horribilis.

    Not sure of the plural of Annuses. Giving it a go, though.

    May there be many years ahead of him.

  10. The Danger for Abbott is Victoria Psyclaw 597
    _______________
    The next serious electoral test will be the Vic elections in Nov
    Have no doubt how serious this will be for him
    With a majority of just One seat,Napthine is facing a big swing and nothing can help him

    The lastest Fed poll shows Labor 61-31 PP

    There is usually some corelation between state intentions and federal one
    In 1990 Hawke suffered a devestating loss in Vic due to the failures of the Cain-Kirner govt,and there are many other examples from History

    So if Napthine is swept out(he is Mr Bland) the blame will be on Abbott from the Vic Libs and one can expect some bitter attacks
    This will agravate the mood inside the party in Canberra,and worry Newman deeply in Qland
    all the state pollies will blame Abbott…not themselves…
    so the stage will be set in Canberra .for the next act of the drama ..???

  11. @J34/605

    They spent years attacking Labor Leadership, I doubt they will go and change leadership, won’t be good for the polls.

  12. Btw, if there is a DD, and the liberals [lose], would that give Tony a way out of leadership? And Disappear into the night?

    Well, if he doesn’t go voluntarily, he’ll be pushed. Then he can fade away from public view, following in the footsteps of his mentor BA Santamaria, writing increasingly cantankerous and eccentric op ed pieces for the Australian that hardly anyone reads.

  13. Just for the record I think TA will go to a DD after a couple of his budget measures have been turned down if he has 2 other bills to use
    Lots of carry on about being stopped doing what he needs to do and his MANDATE

  14. Not sure of the plural of Annuses. Giving it a go, though.

    May there be many years ahead of him.

    “Anni horribiles”, in nominative case.

    Actually, may Tony have a long and happy retirement. Starting soon.

  15. Tom

    As I understand it, in the matter of Kezza’s grandfather’s Will that was successfully challenged, the original beneficiaries were her father and uncles, in specified proportions.

    On challenge, the Will was “altered” to favour the priest son ie Kezza’s priestly uncle.

    There is no way that the redirected benefits after the challenge went by court order to the church, since the Church was neither a family member nor a dependant “person”.

    But her uncle priest may have ultimately sent it in that direction.

  16. psyclaw, if the uncle had left his portion of the inheritance to the Church, then the Church will have setup a trust to deal with it. I.e. many people leave money to Churches with conditions such as “I want the money to be used for ” – insert section of church or specific purpose etc here. Then as I said, the trustees then have a legal claim. As to the ethical claim, that’s another matter.

    Tom.

  17. [ Lots of carry on about being stopped doing what he needs to do and his MANDATE ]

    I am unsure about a DD. I really dont think they will risk it, but am really not sure. The political ineptness of this budget and their sales job has left me somewhat bewildered.

    However, they would be even more mad to try and run a mandate line when the while “Tony Lied” theme is running around in the wild and has credibility.

    How can they have a mandate when they have trashed their promises, and then refused to fess up and have been arguing that those who voted for them should have seen this coming??

    Really, at the moment they are in the position of having said to people that IF they weren’t so fwarking stupid and had been listening, this budget would be no surprise. Its not that they have broken any promises, its just that the mug punters out there who voted for them were too thick to hear what they were saying.

    Yup, that will go down really well in Western Sydney? 🙂

    I reckon about the only thing a Bogan hates more than getting slugged by the Sweat Spigot is bring treated like a Stupid Bogan by the Sweat Spigot while being slugged more by the Sweat Spigot.

    They would have to be so completely off the planet to run a mandate argument………that they probably will. 🙁

  18. [ Actually, may Tony have a long and happy retirement. Starting soon. ]

    And it would be such a good look for him to get turfed and then go straight on to living off his Super entitlements wouldn’t it??

  19. Euro eLections now on
    __
    __________
    The euro elections(and in places municipal election too) are now on
    In Greece(see BBC article) there are signs that the old Socialist Party-Pasoc..will be decimated,and the new left party Syriza will make dramatic gains,as will the neo-Nazi”Golden Dawn “Party which will get seats in the EU Parl’t for the firsts time

    In many places like Hungary the new right may make dramatic gains in the curent euro-wide swing to the far right,of which the neo-fascists in the Ukraine are another symbol.

    In Holland …Wilders racist-anti-islamic party may emerge as the largest in the land..and in France Le Pen’s National Pront may emerge as much more powerful on the right ,as will the Left Alliance(the old CP) on the left,,as the Socialist Govt is deeply unpopular

    In the UK Labior has made great gains in the municial election,at the expense of the Tories ,and the Lib-Dems who were decimated
    UKIP…the new right-wing anti-Euro party.. won 160 odd council seats across England and were the cause on many Tort defeats ..and the Greens made a substantial showing

    These may be repolicated in the EU Parl’t elections which will be known this week
    ….http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-27440047

  20. @cud chewer 620

    Skeptical which way? That the pings were a reliable lead or about the criticisms of the analysis of pings?

  21. I think the Libs will continue to slide downward in the polls

    I don’t know what is going to happen in the next few months but I bet that a major change will happen for better or worse.

  22. Zoidlord, Nappin, Mari.

    Thank you for your good wishes.

    Yes, Mari, a lovely photo.

    Anywhere but Australia is good, at the moment.

  23. Tom

    kezza’s account makes it clear her uncle was alive at the time.

    My point (from the beginning) has been that the same result (the will being challenged and the land divided) could have happened even if her uncle had never been involved in the church in anyway – that, regardless of people’s intentions, wills are challenged and overturned in families all the time.

    For all we know, the other siblings (who also benefitted from the new arrangement) were quite happy with the result (one assumes they didn’t altruistically sign over their shares).

  24. @deblonay 613

    I’ve wondered whether there is a long game going on where the Federal liberals concede Victoria in order to make it easier to to win ALP seats in 2016.

    I put this theory to some friend who understand the Liberal party better than I do – and their response was “they are not that smart”

    So maybe Napthine will get the award for the first unintended Liberal party casualty from the Budget.

  25. What what I thinking any bills totigger a DD would have to be rejected twice in the new Senate, so it would be a minimum of four months.
    Something major will happen before then’

  26. Andrew Elder was floating the theory that the Fed Libs were actively playing the politics to force the Lib state governments out.

    I’m not sure I buy it. It’s such a risky strategy.

  27. [Skeptical which way? That the pings were a reliable lead or about the criticisms of the analysis of pings?]

    Skeptical about the article and its nameless experts. Since my expertise is in electronics and I do have a close interest in sensors I can say the following. It would be very hard for the original analysis to conclude what they did given the very specific timing constrains on the signal. They have a particular cadence. And the frequency can vary as the battery fails. This isn’t to rule out a man made source that is “like” a pinger. The problem is that in that environment sound only travels so far, even with “ducting”. Meaning another man made source would have to have been in the ocean and within 100Km or so to have had any chance of detection. In other words its impossible to imagine what else could have generated the signals short of someone deliberately planting or generating.

  28. Though it would in fact be the sensible thing to do, I doubt the LNP will ditch Abbott.

    That, combined with the proliferation of LNP state governments (likely to unchanged in 2016 other than VIC), makes methink we have the first one-term govt since Scullin.

    But it’ll be a long 2.5 years.

  29. Napthine was never going to win, regardless of Abbott. He is pathetic. A few weeks ago I spoke to some tories – they still liked Abbott then but wouldn’t vote for Napthine.

  30. Zoomster, if the uncle was still alive, then I assume that, if the challenge originated on behalf of the uncle, then it must have been at his direction. If he had already made a will out in favour of the Church, then I assume that any Church involvement would have been at his behest.

    Tom.

  31. Leaving aside the 45 minutes and calls to two taxi companies to get to our lunch.

    Finally arrived a taxi. The driver, a turbanless Sihk, apparently trying to ‘integrate’ according to him.

    Skilled as I am in nefarious taxi tactics, we nevertheless found ourselves behind an hesitant right turner.

    Eventually that car made it into the main road. But then swerved and wavered across the lanes.

    Our Sikh driver made some observation. I said ‘what did you say, driver’ thinking I was mistaken.

    Driver says ‘he is Lebanese.’ What, Unbelievable. I laughed in astonishment. Asked how did he arrive at that conclusion.

    Anyway, he reckoned he knew.

    Far out!!

    Adelaide. The most not Western Sydney State I knew of.

    Hope despite this anecdote, be it ever thus.

  32. [Andrew Elder was floating the theory that the Fed Libs were actively playing the politics to force the Lib state governments out.]

    I’m not sure I buy it either, but what is clear is that the Federal Liberal jihadists are waging war against moderates in the state branches.

  33. Re Debonlay @625: the UKIP is going to make deep inroads into the Conservative vote in the UK national election next year. The Conservatives are probably wishing they’d supported preferential voting in the referendum a couple if years ago. And the Lib Dems are wishing they’d never allied themselves to the Dark Side. They face a near wipeout next year.

  34. Work to rule

    Andrew Elder thinks so

    [The real political game, as it was under Howard, is to force the Coalition out of office at the state level so that the Coalition is not conflicted or diverted politically between federal and state governments. For the Manichean Abbott, the federal-state blame game can be clarified by abandoning state government (and its pernicious moderating influences) to Labor.]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au

  35. @Victoria/640

    I find that very hard to believe, we seen so many screw ups with Abbott, Hockey, Bishop, Turnbull, Dutton, Morrison.

  36. Zoomster, I should add that prior to the uncles death, he would be calling upon the legal resources of his Church, not the trustees as they would only be involved as executors.

    Tom.

  37. If we presume that Abbott will test the new senate and therefore any DD election is towards the end of this year.

    Then Napthine is likely to be the very first chance that any voters get to express a view at the ballot box.

    Should be fun to watch how Napthine positions himself over the next few months.

  38. [
    Andrew Elder was floating the theory that the Fed Libs were actively playing the politics to force the Lib state governments out.

    I’m not sure I buy it. It’s such a risky strategy.
    ]

    Yeah, it sounds like a complete load of horse shit to me. As if they have that much control over what is going to happen at the various upcoming State elections. Electoral politics doesn’t work like that.

  39. Long Games.

    Phhhht!

    Clearly the Federal powers of two have no idea.

    And don’t give a fats. About anything.

    Maybe there was a lunatic shred of something or other.

    If it includes blowing out of the water every single Liberal Premier, they are doing excellent work.

    If there is a cunning plan, maybe to install a Labor Premier in every State….Go for it!

  40. The whole narrative about Abbott’s Libs is totally wrong. Abbott is busy trying to give more power to the States not less.

    If it was all Labor States there would be no one stop shop for the environment. The list goes on. The centralisation has been happening for good reason. It reduces duplication and is more efficient.

    Abbott needs the States to help get his agenda through. He wants all Liberal and Weatherill winning was a big blow to him.

  41. Re the article linked by Victoria @640: here’s something for Bill Shorten:

    Labor should frame the $7 co-payment as a red-tape imposition on small business. This would mess with Liberal heads and only their rusted-on supporters would laugh at it.

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