Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland has a somewhat less bruising result for the Abbott government than it has lately been accustomed to, as Campbell Newman’s state government girds itself for a difficult by-election.

Galaxy has produced a poll of federal voting intention in Queensland shows the Coalition leading 52-48, representing a swing to Labor since the election of 5%, with further detail presumably forthcoming courtesy of the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: The primary votes are 33% for Labor (steady since February, as is the two-party result), 41% for the Coalition (steady), 7% for the Greens (steady) and 12% for Palmer United (up one). The poll also has a surprisingly high 48% in support of the GP co-payment with 50% opposed, 46% and 48% for increasing the GST, and 25% and 72% for raising the pension age to 70.

In other Queensland news, it today emerged that a state by-election looms in the inner Brisbane seat of Stafford following the resignation of Liberal National Party member Chris Davis. This neatly coincides with a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 687 residents in the electorate, which did not canvass voting intention, but found Davis’s recent dissident activity had made him considerably more popular in the electorate than the Premier. The poll also furnishes rare data on opinion concerning campaign finance laws, finding 60% opposition to the government’s removal of caps on political donations with only 22% in support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

685 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. []

    The appalling thing about that story in The Age is the ad for a black BMW – the make and colour of the car allegedly involved in this drive-by shooting.

    Surely the Age programmers could ensure that certain stories do not pick up on keywords like “BMW” when it’s about a violent tragedy!

  2. [Public relations firm Res Publica issued a statement this morning on behalf of the Whitehouse Institute and said any suggestion Whitehouse had sought political interference in the regulatory processes around accreditation of higher education courses was “groundless”.]

    And once again the question must be asked: who is leaking this stuff? It’s all too perfectly timed and distributed to be random off the grid stuff.

  3. Gotta love PB. Thank you again.

    More good wishes than certain of my family!


    Their birthdays are after mine.

  4. Kezza

    At the risk of criticism for poking my nose in, I am interested that your grandfather’s will was challenged by the “Catholic Church”.

    1) As we have seen well publicised in regard to the clergy abuse compensation, the “Catholic Church” per se is not a legal entity, so cannot initiate legal action.

    2) Anyway, under the laws of all states, legislation lists those who can challenge a will. In summary, they are members of the immediate family, (including now same sex partners and de factos), and any other person who can prove that they were dependant on the deceased.

    I suspect that it was your uncle priest who challenged the will (maybe encouraged by the church) and that the court decided that in the circumstances he was dependant on his father.

    One possible piece of evidence might have been that the priest’s father regularly provided financial support to him …… pocket money, helped clothe him, helped buy his car etc etc ….. such support by families of their grown up children who had entered religious office was very common in years gone by.

    It would be probably harder for adult priests to prove dependance on their family nowadays since the relatively recent instigation of stipends / salaries for them.

  5. Darren
    [I wonder if this public relations firm has been engaged recently for a specific purpose or whether it was already doing long-standing work for the “school”.]

    Who cares?

    They forgot to mention she was a bit well-oiled when she took to the microphone to berate the PM for her Whitehouse Institute Design Course not yet being accredited.

    (After all she’d done for him. Ya know, nudge nudge, wink wink, say like a $60,000 scholarship for his daughter.)

    Oh, and then there was the missed opportunity to say this occurred in front of 400 guests. Before being whisked away to a VIP room for one-on-one lobbying by the Lib donor and chairman of Whitehouse, one Mr Taylor who also conveniently provides Mr Abbott with free suits.

    But how can a Pharma-lobbied PM be expected to recall a $60,000 freebie? So shallow, and so trivial, after all.

    I expect I’ll be able to share that the next time I’m caught in a time-warp at the Coles fast check-out aisle.

    These PR companies sure know when to stop with the information, dontcha reckon?

  6. If we have a DD I think the Informal Party should disband (but Liberals – please join it). The result in such a DD really will reshape the country. Proportional representation means voters have to chose one side or other. My view of Labor is reasonably positive but others take a dimmer view. Sure, iIt’s far from perfect. But the Liberals are now a destructive force that must be halted. If necessary, hold your nose and vote for the least worst.

  7. Crikey W!!

    You have made it through another year. 🙂

    And the Fibs are trying their best to Self destruct. 🙂 🙂

    Many Congrats!!

  8. We all agree Palmer’s a loose cannon but Tony Abbott believes he is a ledgend in his own mind. nothing he does would surprise me. I think he believes all the crap the Murdock morons write and the shock jocks say. as my ex Lieral voting sister whas said he’s mad.

  9. psyclaw

    I don’t mind you asking at all.

    1. I was only 8 years of age when my grandfather died, so I grew up on the family stories.

    2. It wasn’t till my father died that I had access to family documents.

    3. I perused my grandfather’s will.

    4. I saw the court records from 1964.

    5. I do recall a lawyer from the CC acting on behalf of my uncle, so you may be right that my uncle actually challenged the will (I don’t have the records with me).

    6. If it was my uncle then I find it particularly disgusting.

    7. Hope your balls are okay mate. And you have forgiven me, or at least given me absolution for a heartfelt apology.

  10. ausdavo
    [Regarding Abbott and his DD threat. I believe he is quite serious.]
    I hope so, and just in case, Labor should have a budget-alternative ready to go.

    They have a document from this goverment that provides a concrete definition for what the Liberals consider sensible, unlike all the hand-wavy stuff last election and their work* has been made easier due to presence of Abbott’s PPL and medical research fund which can simply be dumped.

    * in matching, as closely as is feasible, the Liberal’s amount of spending/revenue

  11. ‘I hope so, and just in case, Labor should have a budget-alternative ready to go’.

    Slogan to Go.

    Something akin to 250 fully costed programs.


  12. Steve 777,

    Totally agree if one knows a normally hard line LNP who can’t bring themselves to vote ALP then suggest they vote informal (one vote less for LNP).

    Those who really want Abbott out should however preference Greens, Labor or Palmer but put LNP last so that their vote counts against the LNP.

    Personally, I hope Abbott & his cabal do go for a DD election. I’ll be working hard to see them slammed out of office. I believe their advertising lies and their Murdoch front page lies will not be so well received a second time round.

  13. Psyclaw

    Is your avatar a jaguar. I asked before but not lurking too long these days so sorry if you already answered

  14. [ Labor should have a budget-alternative ready to go. ]

    I have no doubt they know pretty well what they would do.

    Bowen is on the ball and hungry to be the next Labor treasurer.

    Labor know what the budget parameters are and its limitations because it set some of those limitations on the tories.

    Hockey etc know it – they have pushed out the harder decisions in turn.

    But abbott is gutless – when the time comes he will fold or probable lose office.

    Either way its fine by me because business won’t wear his excuses for too long.

  15. If there is a DD, the Coalition can no longer hide their hand – it’s already out in the open – and Labor has the opportunity to construct a counter to every point. However it has to be sensible, and prove (to the public) that they’ve learned from their loss at the last election.

    crikey, I would hope no slogans, no spin, no evasions, no flattery.

    Are people rejecting this budget because it’s tough, or because it’s tough in the wrong places and to the wrong people?

  16. DisplayName@578

    Are people rejecting this budget because it’s tough, or because it’s tough in the wrong places and to the wrong people?

    They are rejecting it because it is so obviously based on ideology rather than economics, and also because it is so unfair.

  17. They should definitely lead the Coalition on as much as possible and provoke them until a dd is callled or it becomes obvious that it won’t happen.

    Who doesn’t want to see the Coalition snap ;).

  18. Exxon lost the game…and was Checkmated ,,, say US oil experts in”Counterpunch”today
    Two USA experts in today’s Counterpunch Mag in the US say that Exxon and the US Govt may have been aware of the vast new gas/oil finds just announced off the Crimea coast,and hoped the coup in Kiev would bring to power a regime friendly to their opeeations
    In the end Putin…also aware.of the finds..has won the day ,and the Crimea’s huge Black Sea gas/oil reserves will be owned by the Russian state,,,excellent maps with article

  19. There’s absolutely no way Abbott would go to a DD.

    Apart from being trounced, as polls stand at the moment, he could not bear losing office when he has control over the HoR.

    Could you imagine the schtick he’d have to put up with!

    He tried every stinking damn trick in the book to get rid of Julia Gillard – and she was in a minority government.

    She managed to balance everything in the HoR and also in the Senate.

    She didn’t have a majority in either house.

    Even that spent force Rudd derided making a deal to form government should he be in the same position as Gillard.

    Total wimps, the pair of them.

    But Abbott had a helluva lot more skin to lose, considering Rudd was going to lose, hands down.

    And seeing Abbott’s losing skin by the handful, you’d think he had some sort of psoriasis of the electorate.

    It’s incurable, dontcha know.

  20. Australians don’t want our country radically changed.

    Why do we need to screw up medicare?

    Why do we need to radically change our higher education system?

    Why do we need to revamp our Federal/State balance?

    Why do we need to dismantle our social welfare system?

    If we need to “fix” the budget, why not adjust our existing taxes and tax concessions? Our systems and basic parameters have served us well for 30 years – we don’t need to tear it all down and start again down a different tea-party big-business-worshipping road. Adjust what we’ve got as we need to, don’t shove all this ideology down our throats without a mandate to do so.

    And ffs don’t pretend it’s about “sustainability” or “future prosperity”.

  21. Hockey appointee to Financial System Inquiry…. London based tax dodging spiv

    Lib adviser repays $43m tax
    Australian-born hedge fund boss Michael Hintze, who is connected to the British Conservative Party, last year approved the repayment of nearly $43 million in a settlement with the UK taxman after companies in his CQS group used ”employee benefit trusts” that ran foul of authorities.

    He is also a supporter of the provocatively named Global Warming Policy Foundation whose mission is to challenge claims of anthropogenic climate change. Its website refers to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as ”the climatocracy”.

    Mr Hockey’s office declined to comment despite being asked a series of specific questions. These included whether the Treasurer knew Sir Michael personally before the appointment, and if so what the nature of that relationship was.

    This one will need chasing

  22. kezza
    [There’s absolutely no way Abbott would go to a DD.]
    That’s what I think too, but some people are certain he’s the type to really dig in.

  23. Psyclaw @ 556, it was probably left to the property trust of the particular Catholic Diocese. It would then be the responsibility of the trust to decide whether or not to challenge the will. The Trust does not HAVE to challenge a will, this would be at the discretion of the trustees. Seems rather hard nosed for them to challenge a will though, the Catholic Church isn’t exactly scratching for funds.


  24. Abbott couldn’t even bring himself to bring on a vote of no confidence in the last parliament despite vowing to do so.

    He knew he didn’t have the votes to carry it and couldn’t face being a loser even when there was nothing at stake.

    Unless the polls shift substantially in the LNP’s favour Abbott will not go to an early election of any sort.

  25. Jackol@586

    Australians don’t want our country radically changed.


    Very true.

    They weren’t told all the nonsense in the budget was going to happen either.

    abbott campaigned on keeping promises etc – but is doing the total opposite….

    He is also saying people heard stuff he didn’t promise/ didn’t say.

    The mind boggles.


  26. [Tone now thinking of a DD according to the Guardian. Madness for anyone else in the same position to even think about it, but Abbott is so detached from reality anything is possible.]

    Abbott is doing what he always does: he tries to keep politics so in-your-face to the public that they get nagged into almost anything.

    Fanatics like Abbott don’t care how much trouble they put OTHER people to. They nag and nag until they get their way. They make trouble, keep everything in the air, cause dissent and divisiveness until the punters vote for them just to shut them the f**k up.

    That’s the theory, anyway.

  27. Display Name
    [That’s what I think too, but some people are certain he’s the type to really dig in.]

    Not sure I get your point.

    Are you saying some people think that Abbott will be belligerent enough to got to a DD?

    Abbott’s particularly stupid, but he’s not completely bonkers.

    As I’ve said before, the only way he’ll dig in is to become obstinate enough to refuse to be moved for the good of the party. Because, because, because Father Knows Best.

    And with Abbott you can’t be sure if he’s talking about himself, his own father, or his Heavenly Father. And he’s the primate of the triumvirate.

    And I’m sure he’ll kiss Pope Francis’ ring should he get the chance.

  28. YaaaY!

    Much as I don’t barrack for them, Port wins again!

    Adelaide Oval doing good spiritual stuff.

    Maybe the Chaplains!

  29. Hard to say if Abbott would go to a DD, he likes a fight – a chance to bully. But like all bullies, underneath lies a coward that will only pick a fight he knows he can win. He won’t win an election at the present polling levels. The alternative is to make some really dishonest underhand deals, so who can he buy in the parliament?…

  30. At first blush one would say that there is no way the Abbotteers would shaft Abbott the PM, given the mileage they gained from damning Labor for shafting Rudd the PM.

    But make no bones about it ……. self interest always prevails, and if circumstances demand it they’ll shaft him.

    They have an abundance of skilled liars who will be able to look everyone in the eye and explain in so many ways how their dismissing Abbott occurred quite differently and for very different reasons (honourable reasons) to the Rudd matter.

    Any shafting of Abbott will be “necessary for the national interest” and unlike Rudd’s demise, it will be done warmly and lovingly and respectfully.

    If the current Abbott-is-a-liar momentum continues well into the second half of this year, and if the Senate decimates the budget, the polls will go lower and lower and Abbott will be on his bike.

  31. it’s becoming abundantly clear why Hockey & Abbott are bad mouthing Fairfax ( & The Guardian )

    Those publications are exposing Liberal double dealing & corruption on multiple fronts.
    Murdoch will have no choice but to follow or he will lose his readership.

  32. That is a bit weird.

    Usually when I log on, that to the right tip off usually says Hi,Helen.

    Now it reads, HI, Dame.

  33. I would have thought that DD was out of the question once the Libs vote tanked in the new year but with the lunatics in charge who knows.

    I hope that it is after optional preferential voting in the Senate comes in, that way it will make it easier to alocate my preferances.

    I will pick at least 10 left leaning parties above the line or at least 25 below.
    Saying that I stll think a DD is extremly unlikley

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