Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Essential Research result finds little change on voting behaviour, while the monthly leadership ratings are the first from any pollster to show Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

The latest weekly result from Essential Research, a rolling average of polling conducted over the past fortnight, shows little change on last week with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39% and the Greens down one to 9%, while the Coalition and Palmer United are steady on 40% and 5% and Labor’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll also includes the monthly personal ratings, which are the first such results from any pollster showing Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, the latter’s lead of 42-32 last month crashing to a deficit of 37-36. This is down to a slump in Abbott’s ratings, his approval down six to 35% and disapproval up eight to 55%, with Shorten’s ratings little changed at 35% approval (up one) and 37% disapproval (down one).

In other questions, the poll comprehensively gauged opinion the Commission of Audit’s recommendations, of which three have a positive net approval: university students repaying HELP debt once they earn minimum wage, relocation by unemployed young people to areas of high unemployment to retain access to benefits, and Youth Allowance rather than Newstart for those under 25. The least popular measures were raising the retirement age and increasing interest rates on HELP debts. Respondents thought the Coalition heavily favoured the rich (54%) over the poor (5%) and the average Australian (22%), while tending to place Labor in the middle, with 34% for the average Australian, 16% for the rich and 22% for the poor. The poll found broad awareness that Australia’s national debt was lower than other developed countries (45% believing it lower, 22% higher), and a belief that large companies and high-income earners paid too little tax and small businesses and low-income earners too much.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,295 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 38 of 46
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  2. [Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

    Those of with long memories will recall that Rudd did not, at the time, fully demote Garrett. There was a view, noised abroad, that had Rudd done so, Garrett would have spilled the beans on Rudd’s behaviour and that of his MO and that would have been very messy – for Rudd.

    Oh brother, your hatred runs deep. Gets hemorrhoid cream for goodness sake… so Rudd hurt your feelings…too bad.]

    Well, I did expect this sort of automatic response from people such as yourself, T.P. If you read carefully, you will see that I was reporting what happened at the time – without commenting on the likelihood or otherwise of it.

    As for Mr Rudd hurting my feelings, it is true that I was profoundly upset that a leader who for years claimed that climate change was the greatest moral issue of our generations could comprehensively flub the greatest moral issue of our generation.

    That said, I am not going to buy into the ins and outs of Mr Rudd’s contribution to humanity – positive or negative. Let history be the judge.

  3. The Morgan poll conducted by SMS today gives the following ‘consumer pulse’ attitude to the budget in total and by voting intention. My maths are not good enough to calculate voting intention by party – is it possible to estimate this?

    88% of Australian consumers overwhelmingly feel last night’s Federal Budget will not benefit them…comprising:

    76% of Liberal supporters.

    96% of ALP supporters

    96% of Greens supporters

    94% of Other Parties supporters

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5581-budget-2014-reaction-201405140642

  6. It appears Brandis has been hoisted on his own petard.
    And not a pretty sight.

    I guess if you want to trash our democratic conventions, you deserve contempt from everyone.

  8. Yes, very interesting Dave!

    Sounds like the government redacted portions which took the whole document out of context, perhaps incriminating.
    Particularly given Rudd’s comments and the desire to reveal the document in its entirety.

  9. One of the concerning issues is that the current Government is accessing a document that refers to a previous Governmnt’s Cabinet considerations.

    That, in itself, is troubling.

  10. [As for Mr Rudd hurting my feelings, it is true that I was profoundly upset that a leader who for years claimed that climate change was the greatest moral issue of our generations could comprehensively flub the greatest moral issue of our generation.

    That said, I am not going to buy into the ins and outs of Mr Rudd’s contribution to humanity – positive or negative. Let history be the judge.]

    Truly hilarious. You make an absurd judgement contrary to the facts and then say you won’t judge. What a strange deluded fellow you must be.

  11. mtbw

    I had a similar experience last week. I attended local bank to open account for my youngest daughter, and the young man who was assisting us, was bringing up the proposed changes to GP co payment and fuel excise. He was not impressed at all.

  12. I liked Brett Walker QC a appearing for Rudd, arguing the exceptionality of the matter. Namely, that no government had ever established a Royal Commission specifically inclusive of terms of reference to examine cabinet processes. And, he opined, no government is likely to do it again.

  16. [sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    I liked Brett Walker QC a appearing for Rudd, arguing the exceptionality of the matter. Namely, that no government had ever established a Royal Commission specifically inclusive of terms of reference to examine cabinet processes. And, he opined, no government is likely to do it again.]

    I would not be so sure, at all, at all.

    Abbott, in Opposition and in Government, has routinely trashed conventions and the like. Whether it is stiffing a dead political opponent during a memorial speech, to stopping someone from attending a funeral, to stopping someone from attending a sick child, to political trash talking Australia while overseas, Abbott has done the bloody lot.

    I imagine that what goes round will, with dreadful certainty during the next Labor Government, come round.

  20. guytaur: It’s a lovely, eycatching and understated book cover!

    Oh hell yeah! I can’t wait to read the book. I adore Julia (yes she made mistakes and she’s not perfect but she was our first female PM and got treated atrociously). I’m not a fan of Kevin but the less said about that the better because it sends my blood pressure rising which isn’t a good thing.

    Now as for the Pink Batts RC – what does this all mean (about the redacted documents. Wasn’t the whole idea to show the cabinet documents (by Abbbott & Brandis) and they wanted them out there? I’m a tad confused by it since they are now trying to stop the documents being made available. All very weird.

  22. Tom Hawkins

    I suggest you slow down with opinion comments about politics and RCs if you have to publicly admit you don’t know what the widely used and applied term “redacted” means.

    At least have the self respect to take 3 seconds to look it up.

  23. HALF of a statement presented to the insulation commission by former prime minister Kevin Rud has been redacted by the current government.

    The debate is ongoing over whether the statement can be redacted or if public interest outweighs the position.

    Commission Ian Hanger said he had been charged by the Commonwealth to investigate the terms of reference.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/former-prime-minister-kevin-rudd-has-arrived-to-give-evidence-at-inquiry-into-botched-home-insulation-scheme/story-fnihsrf2-1226917332553

  27. sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    I liked Brett Walker QC a appearing for Rudd, arguing the exceptionality of the matter. Namely, that no government had ever established a Royal Commission specifically inclusive of terms of reference to examine cabinet processes. And, he opined, no government is likely to do it again.

    The question now is, will Kevin Rudd control his emotions enough to let his QC do his job unfettered …?

  28. [WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    As for Mr Rudd hurting my feelings, it is true that I was profoundly upset that a leader who for years claimed that climate change was the greatest moral issue of our generations could comprehensively flub the greatest moral issue of our generation.

    That said, I am not going to buy into the ins and outs of Mr Rudd’s contribution to humanity – positive or negative. Let history be the judge.

    Truly hilarious. You make an absurd judgement contrary to the facts and then say you won’t judge. What a strange deluded fellow you must be.]

    I reported, accurately, what had happened at the time. That is not making a judgement. It is reporting accurately what happened at the time.

    I avoided making my judgement about what happened at the time so that idiots like you wouldn’t get on their high horses and go all stupid.

    I was obviously hoping for far too much.

  31. Rex

    Can we give it a break on Rudd attacks.

    We have many more serious things to talk about including how this country is going to change under these bastard Libs.

  33. [Rex Douglas
    Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    sprocket_
    Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
    I liked Brett Walker QC a appearing for Rudd, arguing the exceptionality of the matter. Namely, that no government had ever established a Royal Commission specifically inclusive of terms of reference to examine cabinet processes. And, he opined, no government is likely to do it again.

    The question now is, will Kevin Rudd control his emotions enough to let his QC do his job unfettered …?]

    Nah. The $64 question is the extent to which the evidence of Garrett, Arbib and Rudd lines up and what the RC will do about any discrepancies.

    Given the sensitivities surrounding the separation of powers in this case, I fully expect that the RC findings will be remarkably circumspect, and confine themselves to some fairly vague generalities about the conduct of government business.

    Take one example. Yesterday and today Garrett was quizzed on risk assessment and the way in which risk assessment for an earlier version of the insulation program related to a later version of the insulation program.

    If the RC is not very, very careful it will be calling on governments, past, present and future, to do detailed risk assessments, vetted and controlled by ministers, for every single expenditure decision up to, and including going to war.

    Government would grind to a halt.

  34. Are we back on the beatification of K M Rudd again tonight?

    With the Tories in disarray, the budget going down in flames like the Hindenburg and the LNP rumoured to be considering rolling Abbott?

    How predictable!

  35. Add me to the list of people who are not Rudd’s best friends, but who back him totally on this one.

    He does seem to have nicely pointed out Abbott’s self-wedging. 🙂

  37. [The main game IMO is whether newscorp can sell voters another shit sandwich – eg that abbott and his mob should still be in power.]

    Dave,

    This is what chills my bones every single day. Not just the Murdoch-owned news outlets (of which there might be more soon if cross-media restrictions are lifted by Abbott), but Murdoch’s minions spruiking everywhere on ABC opinion programs, TEN Network etc. Then add the radio shock-jocks.

    2013 election was just a warm-up for Murdoch, so unless he dies before 2016 the Labor Party will require an impeccably savvy campaign and buckets of luck to overcome all that.

  38. [The question now is, will Kevin Rudd control his emotions enough to let his QC do his job unfettered …?]

    Oh Look…Rex wanting to share the hemorrhoid cream….because he got hurt feelings too… Go ask mummy or daddy for a hug.

  42. Darn,
    I do not actually hate Rudd, I am just vitriolically angry at his behaviour. And he may be a rat, but he is our rat. 😆

  43. very interesting reading pb these days back to the old days around off 2006

    great insight to whats happening thanks everyone,, the
    one
    thing would be nice to have a reply button between all comments

  44. Egg meet face, Lord George

    [Mr Walker said Mr Rudd could not tell his story as he wanted, while being met with a “devastating truncation of the truth”.
    “We don’t want to dance, we want to face it frontly and march straight ahead,” Mr Walker said.
    “Mr Rudd would like to tell [the public] what happened as far as he is concerned.”
    Mr Walker said the federal government had asked the commission to report on processes, which involved confidential cabinet deliberations.
    “My client’s activities in relation to this program are very much inside the cabinet room,” he said.
    “No government has ever asked for cabinet process to be inquired like this.”
    Commissioner Ian Hanger, QC, has said he will consider releasing Mr Rudd’s statement without the redactions overnight.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-rudd-gagged-by-secrecy-provisions-lawyer-20140514-zrcu0.html#ixzz31gATnhUb

  46. The reality is that most, if not all, government decisions involve very large degrees of uncertainty.

    There is no way that a rules-based, process-based set of recommendations in terms of governance recommendaions from the RC would make a skerrick of difference.

    Garrett made the correct point in relation to this issue in today’s proceedings: ministers are far too busy for all that sort of stuff.

  48. [“We don’t want to dance, we want to face it frontly and march straight ahead,” Mr Walker said.]

    I wonder if this a reference to Dancin’ Joe?

    More likely, to George Brandis who “dominated the dance floor ” at ex shock jock, now Murdoch employee Michael Smith, who allegedly has been coaching Ralph Blewitt to lie to the cops and the other political RC.

    Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive. Eh, George ?

  49. RD

    I didn’t. I think he was enjoying the cut and thrust of some pretty savvy professionals.

    That said, there was a cock-up revealed today, for which he must take responsibility: the issues raised today were always going to lift their ugly head sooner or later, and should have been sorted on day one.

  50. WTF

    Richard Chirgwin ‏@R_Chirgwin 4m

    RT @noplaceforsheep: They axed Disability Discrimination Commissioner to pay for that sodding twerp Tim Wilson? [Yep]

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