The latest weekly result from Essential Research, a rolling average of polling conducted over the past fortnight, shows little change on last week with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39% and the Greens down one to 9%, while the Coalition and Palmer United are steady on 40% and 5% and Labor’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 52-48. The poll also includes the monthly personal ratings, which are the first such results from any pollster showing Bill Shorten leading Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, the latter’s lead of 42-32 last month crashing to a deficit of 37-36. This is down to a slump in Abbott’s ratings, his approval down six to 35% and disapproval up eight to 55%, with Shorten’s ratings little changed at 35% approval (up one) and 37% disapproval (down one).
In other questions, the poll comprehensively gauged opinion the Commission of Audit’s recommendations, of which three have a positive net approval: university students repaying HELP debt once they earn minimum wage, relocation by unemployed young people to areas of high unemployment to retain access to benefits, and Youth Allowance rather than Newstart for those under 25. The least popular measures were raising the retirement age and increasing interest rates on HELP debts. Respondents thought the Coalition heavily favoured the rich (54%) over the poor (5%) and the average Australian (22%), while tending to place Labor in the middle, with 34% for the average Australian, 16% for the rich and 22% for the poor. The poll found broad awareness that Australia’s national debt was lower than other developed countries (45% believing it lower, 22% higher), and a belief that large companies and high-income earners paid too little tax and small businesses and low-income earners too much.
Hockey’s fav tonight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFrGuyw1V8s
Hi my say
This article should help explain the situation with Rudd
[HALF of a statement presented to the insulation commission by former prime minister Kevin Rud has been redacted by the current government.
The debate is ongoing over whether the statement can be redacted or if public interest outweighs the position.
Commission Ian Hanger said he had been charged by the Commonwealth to investigate the terms of reference.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/former-prime-minister-kevin-rudd-has-arrived-to-give-evidence-at-inquiry-into-botched-home-insulation-scheme/story-fnihsrf2-1226917332553
Citizen – as has been said, it can’t be calculated from those numbers alone. But you can make some ‘reasonable’ assumptions about the Green and Others vote and get a rough idea. If you assume Greens are on 10% and Others on 10%, it comes out to ALP 41 L-NP 39. If you increase the Greens and Others numbers a little the L-NP vote stays around 38-39 with ALP votes dropping to around 38ish. Either way the Libs aren’t looking great on those numbers (though I haven’t looked into what if any demographic weighting Morgan has employed, so they might not be representative of the electorate)
Boerwar
Since being knee high to a grasshopper the rule “Never enter the roof space when it is live” has been 101 stuff. Why this RC was always going to fail. OH&S laws from way back cover it.
Dame Angie
There are several seats in the chamber made available on both sides for advisors.
Another failer of the liberals is the extension of the NBN committee:
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/385431,senate-extends-life-of-nbn-committee.aspx
‘Late Wednesday afternoon the Senate counted 37 votes in favour of adding to the time the committee has to release its final report on the Government’s reviews of the NBN and the governance of NBN Co, in spite of the efforts of 29 Coalition members who attempted to shut the motion down.”
That photo of Credlin and Hockey is very telling. A very ugly mouth and the raised finger shows who’s really the boss.
Rudd versus Gillard – ancient history. Both infinitely better than the wrecker we have in the PMs office now.
I have been increasingly impressed by the NSW Minister for Education, Ardrian Piccoli.
Just heard on ABC news that Geoffrey Watson suggested to one of the bag men at the ICAC enquiry that he should drive to Malabar and have a look at Long Bay Jail so he gets familiar with it.
Piccoli just said that now the school chaplains MUST be religious.
What a bloody disgrace!!!!!
[MTBW
Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 7:28 pm | Permalink
Just heard on ABC news that Geoffrey Watson suggested to one of the bag men at the ICAC enquiry that he should drive to Malabar and have a look at Long Bay Jail so he gets familiar with it.]
Does he sometimes overstep the seemly bounds?
Tom L: thanks for that.
Your estimates of voting intention line up pretty much with what other recent polls tell us.
psyclaw @ 1872
That is a very stupid comment from one poster to another on a blog where people come to seek information and share ideas.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-23/household-gas-prices-going-up-176-per-cent-in-nsw/5406752
Under Abbott’s watch:
“It means from July 1, typical annual gas bills will rise by between $150 and $225 for households, depending on where people live and how much gas they use.”.
poroti@1904
Yep!
This RC is just insane.
I would have thought a complete response from Rudd et al would have been something like:
[“OH&S laws are administered by the States who were all well aware of the HIP. It was not a secret.
Individual employers have violated OH&S laws and have been dealt with at Coronial inquests and the courts.
It is not a proper or legitimate function of Federal Ministers to micromanage State responsibilities such as OH&S and occupational safety training.”]
[poroti
Posted Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 7:19 pm | Permalink
Boerwar
Since being knee high to a grasshopper the rule “Never enter the roof space when it is live” has been 101 stuff. Why this RC was always going to fail. OH&S laws from way back cover it.]
Well, not when you are going to hammer metal bits through other metal bits and live wires abound.
I get our point though. It should not be up to federal ministers to make sure that employers, employees, and state agencies are doing eheir jobs properly.
Boerwar
Most states DID do their job properly In SA the regulations are quite tight – and the results were evident.
Hockey, when he had more sense:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/37195203@N08/3426486080
BK@1911
I have difficulty reconciling this with your 1909.
Warning! Pyne on 7:30.
bemused
Sorry – he advised that it was announce by the federal government. Piccoli was less than impressed.
BK, poroti, bemused
It will be interesting to see whether the RC gets around to flaying the states and employers alive.
As it should.
But I have not seen the TOR so that might have all been targetted out as irrelevant to the political needs of the Abbott Government.
[I reported, accurately, what had happened at the time. That is not making a judgement. It is reporting accurately what happened at the time.
]
If you had reported simple facts accurately I would not have had my best laugh of the day at your expense. you did not report facts but rather your judgement of the facts which IMHO is not a judgment a reasonable person could draw from the actual facts but like your judgement that is my judgement. However I’m not about to add the double pike with belly flop and claim my judgement / opinion is fact and that I don’t draw judgements because that would be absurdly stupid.
WWP
Keep digging, pal.
Poroti
[Fuller, a 25-year-old qualified electrician, died on 6 December 2009. Electrocution was due to a metal staple creating an electrical contact between the metal foil insulation being installed and live 240-volt AC electrical wiring. He had been booked in to complete the “Ceiling Installers Program” induction course but it had been postponed due to a prior personal commitment. His employer was of the view the laying of foil insulation with metal staples was not a high risk practise for him as an electrician]
Brett Walker was very persuasive in arguing that Rudd’s evidence should be provided in full.
He quoted a pertinent HC case in which cabinet confidence was held to be sacrosanct (for 30 years) but referred to judicial comment that there might be cases in the future which were exceptions, but which could not at that time be envisaged or described.
Then he went to town, saying that never in history and probably never again would a RC be created to look into cabinet decisions. There has only been one PM, ever, who has done this (we all know who that wrecker is …. the trasher of so many conventions and accepted practices).
The uniqueness of the establishment of such a RC as this made it the exception that the HC conceded might arise, but which the HC could not at the time envisage.
Basically his argument was that we are right now living with a PM who has done something crass which has never been done before and is unlikely to be done again, and by implication that that PM is an unmitigated and disastrous prick.
So Abbott now joins with Kerr in being historically recognised as Australia’s two most useless, malicious drunks who occupied the highest offices in the land ….. the former drunk on scotch and the latter drunk on power.
If Rudd’s statement is not allowed in full, then the RC is formally stuffed, since by definition any finding will not be based on the full, available evidence.
The Abbott/Brandis “legal” legal team is now well on the way to having two RCs blow up in their faces. They will join the Howard/Andrews/Ruddock team (v Haneef) in being malicious corrupters of our judicial system, in their own ideological interests.
BK@1922
Ahhh of course. 😀
So he is not one of the RW religious nutters in the NSW Libs.
England to have first rate rise before UK Election:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10828928/Bank-of-England-to-signal-rate-rise-before-election.html
“The Bank of England will give a clear signal on Wednesday that interest rates are likely to rise before next year’s general election.”
Morgan poll
The interesting thing ( though predictable) there is little change in pre budget poll to post budget.
Which I guess shows how disastrously effective the leaks from Fibs were.
[NSW will not charge patients for treatment in its emergency departments, despite the Abbott government allowing states to do so.
The Commonwealth announced in the budget that it would remove restrictions that currently prevent public hospitals charging fees for treatment.
The change is designed to deter people from seeking care in emergency department to avoid a new $7 fee to visit a GP, while also providing some additional revenue to the states to partly offset cuts in Commonwealth funding.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nsw-rejects-abbott-government-offer-to-charge-patients-7-for-emergency-treatment-20140514-zrcq4.html#ixzz31gI1BcoF
Over to WA, which is still considering introducing the GP tax on ED presentations.
But the GP tax on pathology must surely mean that people in hospitals will be charged, as it is all costed against the MBS, regardless of whether its a blood clinic (blood samples), or hospital (x-rays and ultrasounds). Shouldn’t it? In which case it all starts to get a tad administratively challenging – parts of the hospital are charging the GP tax on presentations, while needing to keep a separate billing system for all patients who have path work done during their stay.
And then you’ve got the now-likely outcome of ED patients being charged differentially depending on what state they are in, and it’s looking like a right royal mess.
Can someone please clarify whether my understanding of how this will likely pan out is correct?
Bemused.
No, Piccoli on the face of it is a very good minister.
Dee@1926
An electrician, of all people, should have been fully aware of the risks.
He should have already had a depth of knowledge that went much deeper than would be taught in a “Ceiling Installers Program”.
I have a mate who is an electrician and I have seen him take risks that horrified me. Seems like an element of this involved.
[WWP
Keep digging, pal. ]
Pal it is rare I enjoy a debate so much and now even more as I take that as concession you were wrong.
I could see what you were doing from the first post it made my day – I would call the post hockeyesque!
Boerwar
Back at the time it was pointed out by several journos that Quinceland roof spaces were known to be way more dangerous because of their el slacko electrical inspection regime.
Tom Hawkins #1914
If I didn’t understand what “stupid” meant, unlike you I would look it up, not ask PBers.
If what you found when you looked it up still needed clarification, by all means ask here.
As a Victorian I don’t have much of a feel for WA politics. But I think there would have to be a fair chance that by coming out in favour of a lift in the GST Barnett has just signed his own death warrant at the next election.
BK@1932
I haven’t been tracking him but I do recall concluding that on other issues.
What’s he doing in that (dis)organised crime gang?
>>There are several seats in the chamber made available on both sides for advisors.
Thanks BK! Far too much attention paid to Credlin who looks scary. Don’t want to be Tony when he stuffs up.
Both Weatherill and Newman agree on 730 report: the $7 charge hosptials can levy when they suspect someone is just avoiding a GP charge will cost more to adminsiter than it will collect. Therefore it wont happen.
Classic sign of immaturity: an inability to think through the consequences of your decisions.
This government is like a bunch of undergrads,full of ideological wind and noise, and bugger-all common sense.
Bemused
[An electrician, of all people, should have been fully aware of the risks.]
Enlightening isn’t it?
thanks vic
whats the thoughts here on a DD some on twitter say no abbott want let it happen , others say he is so on himself wtte
he would
BK,
Much as I hate to admit it, Piccoli shows more respect for teachers than the teacher-hating ex-teacher, John Aquilina who ran the dept. in Bob Carr’s govt.
The NSW Treasurer has hung shit on Hockey’s budget, apparently. Called it a disgrace or some such, according to ABC news driving home.
There’s an election in that state in less than 12 months, in which case one has to wonder, if the polls for Abbott don’t improve, will he be kept away from the NSW campaign? I’d pay money to see that!
poroti@1935
I must say I love the suggestion that apparently all would have been OK if they had turned off the power while working in the roof.
Of course, had they done so, we would have soon be hearing about householders being electrocuted when they checked their roof cavity for any reason.
I don’t understand how the Australian Government Solicitor (on behalf of Brandis) is allowed to alter a witness statement at the RC.
It seems a bit like the police being able to alter a written statement of a witness presented at a criminal trial.
How can Brandis claim this RC is independent, while pulling the strings in the background? Having provided the RC with cabinet minutes on the batts scheme (against all existing protocols) he now seemingly wants to hobble the ability of Rudd to defend himself.
Hopefully the RC Commissioner will call Brandis’ bluff and demonstrate he is truly independent and not a useful stooge in the Brandis/Abbott vendetta against the former government.
Darn:
Why do you think that? Barnett has always been strong on an increased share of the GST revenue for this state. His comments today simply reinforce that.
For whatever it’s worth Piccoli is a Nat rather than a Lib.
Maybe just a little bit removed from the BSDs of the Libs.
Bemused
Adrian Piccoli seems to have fallen through the cracks in the NSW Liberal Party machine.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 1m
(Via @TrisD) Newman’s outrage over the budget is a joke – he *told* Abbott to copy him & Abbott did https://www.google.com/search?as_q=Copy+me%3A+Newman+to+Abbott+&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&tbs=&as_filetype=&as_rights= …