BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government’s performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor’s lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 39 of 45
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  1. Re Tricot @1891: that was Sydney broadcaster Alan Jones, a few weeks after Ms Gillard’s father’s death. The comment was echoed a couple of weeks later when, in another context in Parliament, Tony Abbott said the Government should have ‘died of shame’. I believe he knew what he was saying.

  2. [Tony Abbott said the Government should have ‘died of shame’. I believe he knew what he was saying.]

    Yes, one of the only times, though.

  4. Bemused
    Told me they are unable to help suggested if I am worried ring the police, Schnappi lives in Melbourne I am in NSW, all I know. I just had a look on my email account I don’t give my address or anything which I think is what they mean

  7. mari@1899

    Bemused

    has $10:Bigpond DB1F79

    WEPnet 9265782884
    WRP same number also gives a pin number

    All I can find as in a dark part using a torch to see this

    Do you know how to access the firmware to do things like changing settings?

    That should give information on make, model and firmware level.

    I don’t think “$10:Bigpond DB1F79” is what we are looking for.

  8. Is this true?

    [If you should ever be forced by a robber to withdraw money from an ATM machine, you can notify the police by entering your PIN in reverse.

    For example, if your pin number is 1234, then you would put in 4321. The ATM system recognizes that your PIN number is backwards from the ATM card you placed in the machine. The machine will still give you the money you requested, but unknown to the robber, the police will be immediately dispatched to the location.]

  9. I am surprised more has not been made of the declining turn out of voters – full stop.

    It may be a concern – according to Ben Eltham – that support for the majors is declining, but the greater worry is the fact that people are opting out of the system altogether.

    I gather up to 20% of those eligible to vote are not on any kind of electoral roll. On the basis of this most recent election some electorates had below 70% turning out and, while this has not been figured out yet, up to 5% of the vote could turn out to be informal.

    Those who want to see the demise of compulsory voting have probably got what they want without having to do a thing.

    It looks as though voters – that is those who actually bother to identify themselves and do something about getting on a roll – are increasingly making the decision to only turn out for the Big Event of a general election.

    This trend, if continued, gives a whole new meaning to the words “minority government”.

  11. [but the greater worry is the fact that people are opting out of the system altogether.]

    We’ve seen it on PB in increasing numbers, so I think it’s fair enough to assume that the same disengagement is happening in the wider community.

  12. mari@1904

    Bemused
    Told me they are unable to help suggested if I am worried ring the police, Schnappi lives in Melbourne I am in NSW, all I know. I just had a look on my email account I don’t give my address or anything which I think is what they mean

    Well the police would really love that call… “I am worried about someone in Melbourne whose name, address, phone number and other details I don’t know.”

    If you call the cops, direct them to that ISP.

    I am truly amazed William does not have more information.

  14. mari must have read the wrong number – Thomson Gateways are standard Bigpond issue – just need to identify the correct model number.

    I occaisonally find turning off for 10 seconds and turning back on sorts things out.

    Alternatively ring Bigpond assistance and they are generally pretty good.

  15. Steve777@1901

    Amazing how memory lets one down…I thought the ‘died of shame’ thing was said by some Liberal Senator. But then there was the equally sensitive statement about PMJG and her fertility or otherwise.

    Of course, the fact that exactly the same comments could have applied to single, female, childless Coalition members would not have crossed the mind of this individual.

    Meanwhile, it is okay to be a single, male, childless person and still understand about children and families apparently.

  16. Trade Agreement signed with Japan.

    Robb rabbiting on that it will save a new car buyer $1500.

    That $1500 will be the result of a gradual introduction over 5 years. So if you want to save $1500 on a new car, you will have to wait 5 years.

  18. I wonder if there will be any acknowledging that the negotiations started 7 years ago and were mainly done under a Labor Govt.

    And Abbott’s stooges had to do was sign the agreement and wait for the ink to dry, all the hard yards done while Abbott was studying and learning his 3 lines rants

  19. Compact Crank@1914

    mari must have read the wrong number – Thomson Gateways are standard Bigpond issue – just need to identify the correct model number.

    I occaisonally find turning off for 10 seconds and turning back on sorts things out.

    Alternatively ring Bigpond assistance and they are generally pretty good.

    The problem is range. I have suggested replacing the antennas with high gain antennas which is what I did. But first need to know the availability.

  20. Tricot @1909 – not even close. The Voluntary Vote crowd don’t want to have to register or turn up. I’m ambivalent on it – yes, it forces the major parties to appeal to a wide cross section, but there are so many completely uninformed voters I ofen feel the results aren;t based on rational argument but sentiment – not a good way to run a country.

  21. OK so far on the Drum 15 minutes devoted to bagging out Labor over the WA rerun & now 10 minutes of praising Dear Leader’s Japan FTA & onwards with “Team Australia’s” brave business men (are there any women on the junket?) marching forward into China. No mention of ISDS’s. 😛

  22. Confessions – yes, disappointingly.

    That is why, sometimes, we all need to take a bit of a back step on PB.

    This hot house of opinion represents a minority of usually well-informed and intelligent people who enjoy the cut and thrust of the political game.

    Meanwhile out in Joe Public land, politics is increasingly becoming a spectator sport – a game of white hats and black hats, simple solutions for complex problems and with about as much passion and involvement as watching the Melbourne Cup from Fitzroy Crossing on TV.

  28. Австралия

    Something I noticed during the Olympics. Australia in Russian begins with ABC.

    Little wonder Tony and the Australian are so suspicious!

  30. [Dairy producers will almost double their export capacity to Japan under a deal that gives Australian companies a series of concessions that exceed those available to any other country.]

    Bloody marvellous.

  31. Thinking about it, you can see the Greens grabbed some of Labors votes, and probably a fair chunk of the ‘Others’ vote; mostly because Scott Ludlum was a good condidate.
    So he appealed to a broader spectrum than the greens normally appeal to.

    So it would seem that having a candidate with broad appeal is good.

    So why Joe Bullock? He’s not going to shift Liberal voters, and wont attract voters from the left/Greens. What was the ALP thinking?

  33. crikey whitey

    [Австралия

    Something I noticed during the Olympics. Australia in Russian begins with ABC.

    Little wonder Tony and the Australian are so suspicious!
    ]

    A triple 😆 !! Get that out on twitter .

  36. Tricot:

    My point is that even among engaged voters who comment here, and who are rusted on to various parties, we are still seeing people choosing to disconnect from the system by either not bothering to turn up to vote, not joining the electoral roll, or informally voting.

    If engaged voters can do that, then I’m sure it’s pretty easy for disengaged voters who don’t have any party loyalty.

  38. BK @1926 – Yep – tell the Unions to take their money, and their committee positions and the paid organisers running marginal seat campaigns and the booth teams and get the f#$k out.

    That’ll work.

  40. Astro @1931

    [What was the ALP thinking?]

    They were thinking about all the different preselection deals that they have in place for all the seats both State and Federal. Winnable seats only go to the deserving – the ones who control the votes onthe committees controlled by the Unions.

    It’s not about who has the most merit.

  41. The membership and suporters – they certainly don’t have anything near the organisation that the ALP/Union commits to campaigning both between elections and during declared campaigns. It’s a wonder the LNP is competitive let alone wins.

  42. William Bowe@1934

    I am truly amazed William does not have more information.


    Well, I don’t.

    And I remain amazed, but not doubting you.
    I vaguely recall supplying details like my name when I registered.

  43. William

    Whilst your here I emailed Crikey (address in your thread) about the group subscription days ago but no response?

  45. CC

    Hmmmm… Well I guess there’s the problem.

    Spent the Election day chatting with a young Liberal Spruiker at my polling booth. Extremely Catholic lady who had decided the Greens were anti-religion. I think I managed to demonstrate that we weren’t…

    She seemed nice, but misguided.

    No Labor peeps at Perth Mod that day…

  46. All you’re required to provide on PB is an email address. You may be thinking of registering for Crikey, which is not the same thing.

    Mike, I’ll look into that for you.

  47. Cenre ALP RIP
    ___________
    People like Centre will not face the fact that the Greens are here to stay…and the whole politcal landscape is changing for good
    In many ways our politics are become more “european” with a raft of small parties to contend with…but the Greens are now a major force
    better get used to it Centre !

  49. @CC/1944

    On what details? Has Tony read the documents?

    The same could be said about the Trade Agreement with a number of nations, but we know that is not the benefit to us, it’s the benefit to USA.

  50. Or did Tony just read the dollar signs that said “This is how much you will save”, without reading the fine print?

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