BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor

Despite poor reviews for the government’s performance last week, a relatively strong result from Galaxy finds them reining in Labor’s lead in the weekly poll aggregate.

A lot of new data for BludgerTrack to play with this week, with Galaxy conducting its first national poll since the election, ReachTEL turning in its big-sample monthly robopoll for the Seven Network, Essential reliable as ever for its fortnightly rolling average, and Newspoll unloading its quarterly aggregates featuring state breakdowns (although none of this contributes anything new on leaders’ ratings). The Galaxy result was at the high end of the Coalition’s recent form in putting them even with Labor on two-party preferred, which has had the effect of reining in Labor’s lead from 51.8-49.1 to 50.9-49.1, and caused them to lose their majority on the seat projection. Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The big change on the primary vote is that the Greens have taken a hit after steadily inflating to a post-election high in last week’s result, the result of mediocre showings from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which have traditionally been quite strong for them. After applying bias adjustments, these are two of the four worst results for the Greens out of 32 results this year. I would think statistical randomness a more likely explanation for this than genuine responsiveness to anything that’s happened on the political stage of late, and while the high of last week was very probably inflated, it is equally likely that this an over-correction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Labor”

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  1. [Short version: He’s GORN]

    It will be fun to watch if The Hockey Club or The Swinging Dicks get the replacement as Ass Treasurer, Joe wants Ciobo, Abbott wants Frydenberg.

    I’m backing Joe on this one.

  2. [Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 54m
    Watch it RT @ShaneDoherty9: Union statewide poll claims disaster for LNP. Details @9NewsBrisbane shortly #qldpol

    Sir Aaron of Bakota ‏@AKBakota 14m
    QLD State Reachtel Poll: 39.1 LNP (-10.55%) 35.1 ALP (+8.49) 8 PUP 7.3 GRN (-0.2) 6.3 OTH 4.2 Don’t Know #qldpol]

    As sprocket indicated, new QLD State poll. No TPP provided on Nine News, but I’m sure William can estimate it, and Possum will do too I expect. Keep an eye on the link below for when full details go up.

  3. [47
    lefty e

    So here’s the long and short of it for Sinodinos:

    He has to establish that he didnt know that a company he was both Chairman and Director of made donations to the political party that he was treasurer of.

    Short version: He’s GORN.]

    It is a very bad look….

  4. Last Queensland State Poll Reachtel did was this one in July 2013, so I presume the shifts indicated in that tweet above are versus the actual last election, not the last poll (LNP is declining, but not that much since July).
    [Queensland poll – July 2013
    Submitted by ReachTEL on Thu, 11/07/2013 – 13:47

    ReachTEL conducted an eight-question survey of 1,613 residents across Queensland on the night of 10th July 2013. The poll was commissioned by ‘Working for Queenslanders’.]

  5. [I’ll settle for ‘middle aged’ as long as I can get away with it.]

    I’d have to pay that, except I can’t get away with being young anymore, so if I’m not young I must be something else and middle aged seems to be it.

  6. briefly – possibly, if you roughly assume LNP gets PUP prefs and some Others, its on the line. But I’ll let the number crunchers crunch – its only one poll, a long way to go, blah blah blah.

  7. After climbing up and down ladders and extensively using a small extendible chainsaw I, my body ( and my birth certificate) are telling me I am on the wrong end of middle age.

    Throw in shovelling and barrowing sand.

    I am absolutely stuffed right now.

  8. On the eve of a senate rerun we witness the Liberal’s star senator lying his way through ICAC. How the media can fail to whip this into a frenzy of anti Abbott sentiment will be testimony to the MSM bias.

  9. Re Qld poll: assume that Labor gets about 80% of Green prefs and about one third of PUP and ‘other’ and distribute ‘don’t know’ 49:60 to ALP, then. 2PP is about 52.3: 47.7 to LNP. ALP could win next year.

  10. [“@ABCNews24: Don’t forget #ABCNews24 will have LIVE coverage & analysis of #wavotes on Saturday at 6pm WST (9pm AEDT) #auspol” ]

    Well that answers my question of a few weeks back about coverage. It’ll be weird seeing Senate only coverage instead of the usual HoR only coverage.

    I voted today as well, along with what felt like half the town. I can’t remember seeing as many people at a pre-poll before. The reason I pre-poll vote is to avoid queues, so if this is indicative of a trend I might have to start postal voting!

  11. Telefónica has announced it wants to double their FTTH rollout to 10 million.

    Start of last year’s report, it had similar rollout numbers to Labor’s NBN, under 290,000.

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 42s

    If an election were held today, the LNP would lose around 36 seats and government. 22 seats in Brisbane alone #qldpol

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 28s

    Swings based on conservative 2012 prefs: ~12% in greater Brisbane (SEQ), ~15% on Gold & Sunshine Coasts, ~11% in regional Qld N=2900 #qldpol

  12. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 54s

    State wide Two Party Preferred would be between 50.7% and 52.3% to LNP using 2012 election preference flows. Palmer causes the gap #qldpol

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 26s

    We know those 2012 preferences aren’t accurate and inflate the LNP vote by up to a few points #qldpol

  13. What a teaser:

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    But that isn’t even the extraordinary part – that bit will be released tomorrow #qldpol

  14. poroti:

    I ended up just voting 1 Labor ATL. Having to queue up seriously ate into my lunch break that there wasn’t time to do the BTL thing.

    Another reason to postal vote: do it in the comfort of your own home.

  15. Even with optional preferential voting, unless right wingers are very disciplined in their preferences I still get about 53:47 LNP. And ‘others’ include KAP, which I remember favour LNP but it overwhelmingly – maybe 5:3 or 2:1.

    By the way, has anyone figured out what the PUP stands for? A kinder, gentler, wackier LNP perhaps? Maybe Clive’s main problem with the LNP, like Henry VIII with the Catholic Church, is that he can’t be in charge.

  16. A US writer in The Atlantic Monthly ” magazine looks at what she calls “the de facto owner of the Republiczn Party”
    In Las Vegas last week The Republican Party Jewish Coalition which is.really the private party of Sheldon Adelson ,self described as the richest Jew in the USA( the world??)held what the “Atlantic” calls a suck-up fest where all the Republican Hopefulls clustered around his throne for great fist-fulls of money for ther various campaigns..and they offered public homage to Israel..always wise with Adekson if one wants the money

    That is the way it goes in what must be the most powerfull political Lobby in the world..and Adelson wants to nominate one of them for the next Pres of the US…so close to abcolute power are they now

  17. zoidlord

    [But that isn’t even the extraordinary part – that bit will be released tomorrow #qldpol]
    Any speculation from you and ALL PBers as to what could possibly be even more jaw dropping than what has already been released ?

  18. Palmer wanted to call it the UAP United Australia Party…but that had been the name of the main conservative founded by Labor Rat Lyons in 1931 with the blessing of Keith Murdoch(Rupert’s Dad)
    He changed from UAP to PUP as a kind of concession to the past I understand

  19. As the election nears a few LNP sitting members will jump ship to PUP or Katter, (it seems as if these two may merge in Qld anyway).

    Peter Wellington in Nicklin has all but said he will join the PUP after the parliament is dissolved (he will stay an indie until then). Notice who did Clive’s scruting in Fairfax.

    What we are seeing is the lack of an upper house in action. Give the Govt power, if they abuse it they get boned.

  20. When it comes to a vote on things that Palmer has a direct personal financial interest in (like the carbon tax), who is going to stand up in the media and point out the obvious conflict of interest?

  21. Federal 2013 election preference flows to the ALP, not necessarily transferable to individual states and least of all Qld cos of PUP, were as follows:

    Greens …83%
    PUP ……46%
    KAP ……46%

    I forget my source – it may have been Kevin Bonham, and he may confirm or deny such if he sees this.

  22. Some one’s been lying!! I well remember certain people ranting that the MRRT was to downfall of mining companies.

    On the radio news I just heard balance of payments shows that mining is booming ahead….

  23. Z

    There would be nothing to stop the union jacking up their fees as they could effectively holding businesses to ransom whilst fleecing their members.

  24. Poroti /Steve re the USA
    I posted an article by a US academic just a few days ago on his view that the most famous of Marx’s pedictions about” Late Capitalism” is coming true in the way a handful of qrotesquely wealthy families and a number of monoplies will control the world’s wealth

    Whatever else went wrong with some Marxist ideas this one seem,as the article says…,right on the ball

    We are regular visitors to the USA having a son living in Chicago with his family,,,and we go to see them…and our only grandson(we have here a squad of grand-daughters )
    .He is ..a little yank of 8..who worries that his grandparents”talk funny” and is working on teaching us to speak like Americans

    WE have travelled widely while there(using AMTRAK trains) and we always struck by the contrast between wealth and poverty…the beggers and street people everywhere…but not in the upmarket suburbs in Chicago where my son lives,,,which oddly has NO black residents..very white..very lovely,,,but no blacks or hispanics…in a way as segregated as Soweto
    My daughter-in law is Chinese and my son is the wealthy part-owner of a large IT company,,and when we are there generous to a fault

    She is oblivious to the gulf between rich and poor and worships the American dream…I make the occasional unwelcome remark about all this…she is a US citizen and votes for the Repugnats…I suggest they wouldn’t like asians any more than blacks…this is met with silence

    AS we move around we noticed this time the poverty in small towns ,especially as the AMTRAK trains often go to more remote regional areas missed by the freeways

    There are places in the deep South which are 3rd world”..Louisiana??),and in western states like Nevada too
    but even in Chicago…the black slums on the south side are like something in asia or eastern europe(Bulgaria ??)

    and over some years we have got the idea that it is all worsening…Obamcare is a very small victory for the poor and he hasn’t done anything re the minimun wage of about $7 an hour in some of the worst states
    Sad to see that in the richest society in all human history,,,there is such poverty and inequality…when all could live so well

    Travelling I always talk about this to Americans who aren’t as conservative as many think..and when the get over the shock of hearing a foreigner criticising their society they are often open to debate

    My wife rolls her eyes and says I am wasting my time…If I can live for another 40 years(unlikely ) ,I hope to see my grandson as President…now there’s a chance


    “Brazilian mining giant Vale has dismissed concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, saying that debt levels in the United States are of greater concern.”

    On related note:

    “Under the measures announced by Premier Li Keqiang, small businesses will get bigger tax breaks, social housing will be built to replace shantytowns and railway construction will be sped up.”

    It’s a pitty we can’t figure that out here…

  26. [poroti

    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 8:20 pm | Permalink


    But that isn’t even the extraordinary part – that bit will be released tomorrow #qldpol

    Any speculation from you and ALL PBers as to what could possibly be even more jaw dropping than what has already been released ?]

    Based on the questions they asked I would guess Newman’s approval has hit rock bottom.

  27. this from before the last election, but likely to get a re-run soon at ICAC. All those donations to EighbyFive – where did they come from? Where did they go?

    What role did Artie play? Hope his memory improves.

    [Likely new federal Liberal MP for Dobell, Karen McNamara, has been drawn into controversy about political donations on the NSW central coast due to her role as campaign manager for a state MP whose office has been raided by corruption authorities.
    The electorate offices of NSW MPs Darren Webber and Chris Spence were raided by the Independent Commission Against Corruption on Friday. Mr Webber is the member for Wyong and Mr Spence for The Entrance.
    The raids are believed to be linked to revelations by Fairfax Media last year that two staff members of state Energy Minister Chris Hartcher, who holds the central coast seat of Terrigal, had been referred to election funding authorities by the Liberal Party.
    The Liberals alleged the pair -policy adviser Tim Koelma and Mr Hartcher’s electorate officer Ray Carter – had breached election funding laws shortly before the 2011 election. Ms McNamara was Mr Webber’s campaign manager for the 2011 campaign.
    Fairfax Media can reveal that during her preselection interview for Dobell, Ms McNamara said that as campaign manager she had raised up to $100,000 for Mr Webber’s campaign.]

    Read more:

  28. Diogenes

    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:03 pm | Permalink


    There would be nothing to stop the union jacking up their fees as they could effectively holding businesses to ransom whilst fleecing their members.

    I can only comment on the Unions I have been involved with. For some fees are set as a percentage of the lowest paid worker covered by the Union. For there its a percentage of the pay level of the worker. The fees do not take into account any allowances/overtime etc, but are based on the flat pay rate.

    And for all the Unions I know it takes more than the Leadership making a unilateral decision to increase fees. All the Unions I was involved with it required a vote.

  29. I wonder how much further the ICAC stench has to waft, and who else on either side of politics is going to be drawn into it.

  30. sprocket_

    When people were talking about the Terrigals, could they have been referring to Hartcher et al, instead of Eddy O?

  31. Any speculation from you and ALL PBers as to what could possibly be even more jaw dropping than what has already been released

    Preferred Premier in QLD is now Ebola?

  32. There would be nothing to stop the union jacking up their fees as they could effectively holding businesses to ransom whilst fleecing their members.

    All this concern about Unions fleecing members.

    How the CEO/Board of a company that does not pay shareholders a dividend for 2 years? But spend over $400 million buying their own company shares to use as bonuses for?? (yeah you picked it) The Board/CEO.

    Then go on to falsely claim a $106 million bill was the thing that crushed the company.

    You want to look for people being fleeced? Look no further than the corporate boards of Australia

  33. AA

    I’m purely talking hypothetically. Even if fees are fixed, the union could still cripple businesses at will and effectively run a protection racket is they could organise secondary boycotts.

    I expect that now that union membership is only 18% it would be much less likely to work but fifty years ago when 50% of workers were unionised! it would have been relatively easy.

  34. [94
    Posted Thursday, April 3, 2014 at 9:23 pm | PERMALINK

    When people were talking about the Terrigals, could they have been referring to Hartcher et al, instead of Eddy O?

    Definitely something weird about the NSW Central Coast. Many of the people there are aspirational tradie or small business types who migrated from Sydney’s western suburbs, and those who rise into politics there take their aspirations with them to make a motza however they can.

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