BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

A slight lead in Nielsen, together with the fading effect of weak results a few weeks back, finds the Coalition squeaking ahead on two-party preferred for the first time this year.

This week’s lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, together with a particularly bad result for Labor from Essential, has given the Coalition a two-party lead in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the first time this year, albeit by the barest of margins. This represents a considerable move on last week’s result, which equally reflects the fading effect of Labor’s 54-46 and 53-47 leads in Newspoll and ReachTEL three to four weeks ago. With the electoral terrain favouring the Coalition, a fairly comfortable majority is recorded on the seat projection, with four coming off the Labor gains from Queensland since last week, together with two each from New South Wales and Victoria and one each from Western Australia and Tasmania. A new set of leadership figures is provided by Nielsen, which maintains the slowly narrowing trajectory on preferred prime minister and slightly lifts both leaders on net satisfaction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

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  1. With Bob Such taking extended sick leave, is it possible under any scenario for the Libs to form Govt? (given that Such does not declare his hand).

  3. Edwina StJohn

    Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    First Sophie and now Arthur, the gods don’t seem to favour conservative Greeks!

    It has little to do with their ethnic background, it’s all to do with their politics.

  4. ruawake@1551

    With Bob Such taking extended sick leave, is it possible under any scenario for the Libs to form Govt? (given that Such does not declare his hand).

    Not that I can see.

    ALP 23

    Libs 22

    Ind 1

    If Brock goes with Libs then neither side can have a majority, particularly after supplying a speaker.

  9. Dr Bob Such’s extended sick leave at age 69 when the going gets hot, indicates

    1. necessity for retaining retirement age at 65
    2. necessity for parliamentarians to consider whether they have the stamina to adequately represent the voters for the whole parliamentary term when they stand for election.

  11. It’s pretty likely the alp will get at least 10 seats everything. It’s just past there that the going gets much harder.

  12. [Paint is now touch-ready too, so if you’ve got a touchscreen PC, you’ll soon be finger painting right on the screen. You can even use two fingers to trace two separate strokes.]

    Much under rated.

  13. I bet the LNP and Newscorp are trolling through the backgrounds of SA State Labor members looking for any hint of impropriety or anything that could be beaten up to look like impropriety. They’re probably doing the same for the Independents in case they support Labor.

  14. [Everything
    Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 at 7:39 pm | PERMALINK
    The NSW Legislative Assembly is 42 seats so 22 needed for majority:]

    This should have read NSW Legislative Council….of course!

  19. Pseph

    one of the fake Mirabella tweets was to do with her winning the ‘real Indi’ – with a line drawn neatly just below Benalla.

  24. Why is Abbott building more detention centres on Nauru, buying 30 more orange lifeboats & spending $3 billion on drones if the boats have stopped?

  28. lefty e
    Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 at 5:21 pm | PERMALINK
    The legality of entry is a completely seperate issue to seeking asylum.

    And an irrelevant one to the (lawful) act of seeking asylum.

    This is why *not one single person, ever* has been charged over being a so-called ‘illegal entry’. (People smuggling, yes. Being a “smugglee” – not one).

    You’d think that rather salient stat might restrict the use of the term “illegals” . Fact is, despite all the rhetoric and hoohah from some quarters, its 100% clear the state does not in practice consider these acts as illegal, in the pertinent sense of ‘warranting prosecution’.

    But no…

    ———— thanks. sorry for delayed response. as public rhetoric terms illegals deliberately used alongside term “detention centres” perhaps to create confusion in public mind that punishment for illegal arrival is being meted out. I am absolutely sure that ambiguity is intended.

  30. QCLN ‏@CivilLibertiesQ 3h
    Concerned about draconian & undemocratic laws in Qld? Come along to this public meeting Monday night, City Hall, 7 pm pic.twitter.com/CqE1ujh8Dh

  31. Well davidwh that’s not really the question, it’s more can s.a labor last four years with these numbers ? You only need one mp to be ” unhappy” in these scenarios and it all goes pear shaped.

  32. My guess, with no insider knowledge, is that Such has a bony metastasis which will require surgery and radiotherapy.
    There would have to be a very high chance there will be a by election to whoever forms government is pretty irrelevant.

  33. Bolt spits the dummy and proves he is a tinman, Chris Kenny has cancelled his Twitter account…how weak are these Liberal trolls?

    The little princesses need to toughen up

  34. I think if your right Diogenes then Frome has to back labor in the interests of stability. But probably on a promise of new electoral legislation and a new election in 12-18 months.

  38. AussieAchmed@1583

    Bolt spits the dummy and proves he is a tinman, Chris Kenny has cancelled his Twitter account…how weak are these Liberal trolls?

    The little princesses need to toughen up

    Their ‘problem’ on twitter is that they say what they really believe – and then are amazed and horrified at the blowback they get from people they never come across/ mix with etc.

    Then if if it goes viral they are stuffed.

    Plenty of examples around of this. Jim Wallace etc included.

  41. [SA has fixed 4 year terms. Can they have an early election?]

    Early dissolution may occur if the government is defeated on confidence, a “bill of special importance” is rejected by the upper house, or merely if the Governor is satisfied there is an unresolvable deadlock. So basically the term is fixed, unless it isn’t.

  42. Is there a “don’t leave people on the ground near ants” regulation?

    I wasn’t aware of that….better be careful next time I am reading on the lawn….

  43. Is there a “don’t leave people on the ground near ants” regulation?
    ============================
    An unsurprising comment lacking any empathy or compassion from a Liberal troll.

  46. It’s possibly in the SA Libs best interests to let this one go through the keeper.

    Giddings and Gillard are good examples why.

  47. The ALP hanging on might gift Adelaide and Wakefield to the federal Libs, but its hard to see much more change in 2016.

    The most likely impact would be the switching of both indie seats to the Lib column and boundary changes seeing quite a few (anyone’s guess how many) ALP seats falling next time. Then we might see the 7th TPP win for the Libs in 8 elections actually deliver them government for just the 3rd time! 🙂

  48. There is Duty of Care, all those pesky quality forms to fill in, all the staff to patient ratios that the awful unions want to uphold, all those reports to the government funders to show that the clients are being cared for properly, and that those annoying procedures that are supposed prevent the leaving of immobile clients alone to be eaten alive by ants, and no-one to hear their cries for help.

    In other words, all that red tape that is so evil. Luckily,
    Tony has pledged to erase it in the name of efficiency.

  49. Both the two worst performing states have had elections at the same time with a large majority in one and a hung parliament in the other. The directions and economic results of these two states will give a guide as to what a difference the two outcomes can bring.

  50. Bushfire Bill,

    [However, if the plane IS found in the South Indian Ocean, I bet there are no bodies or survivors.]

    I think you might be on to something here.

    It is a given that Diego Garcia has already paid host to a group of people in danger. In particular, I’m referring to the pre-July 2012 period when the Carbon Tax attack on Whyalla was imminent.

    Didn’t Tony Abbott clandestinely organise a flotilla of small boats to transport the threatened citizens to a safe haven?

    And why Diego Garcia? Well, it’s obvious, isn’t it? He looked at a map, saw Diego Garcia, and knew this had to be the place. He knew it was dago-speak for “thank God”. Surely, God was on his side once again!

    But where does Tones’ personally-led search of the South Indian Ocean come into it, I hear you ask.

    Simple. It’s a ruse. Tones can’t allow his role in the Diego Garcia-Whyalla boats liberation bizzo to get out. If it did, Scoot and Three-Star would be on his case pronto and his one-way ticket to Nauru would become part of that convict settlement’s foundation myth.

    When Tones is involved, you know it makes cents.

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