BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

A slight lead in Nielsen, together with the fading effect of weak results a few weeks back, finds the Coalition squeaking ahead on two-party preferred for the first time this year.

This week’s lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, together with a particularly bad result for Labor from Essential, has given the Coalition a two-party lead in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the first time this year, albeit by the barest of margins. This represents a considerable move on last week’s result, which equally reflects the fading effect of Labor’s 54-46 and 53-47 leads in Newspoll and ReachTEL three to four weeks ago. With the electoral terrain favouring the Coalition, a fairly comfortable majority is recorded on the seat projection, with four coming off the Labor gains from Queensland since last week, together with two each from New South Wales and Victoria and one each from Western Australia and Tasmania. A new set of leadership figures is provided by Nielsen, which maintains the slowly narrowing trajectory on preferred prime minister and slightly lifts both leaders on net satisfaction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

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  1. [It operates without much fuss in NSW.]

    Er Barry has to herd cats or allow shooters in forests to pass a bill, seems a bit fussy to me.

    What is the problem we are trying to solve?

  2. OK I vote123456 ALP. Everyone else votes just for their preferred candidates no preferences are available to be distributed.

    A vote “ATL” for the ALP would automatically be, as you say, 1,2,3,4,5,6 down the ALP’s list, and then your vote would exhaust. A vote “ATL”, say “1” Greens “2” ALP would be 1-6 for the Greens, 7-12 for the ALP, then it would exhaust.

    The Senate approximates PR anyway, so having votes exhaust doesn’t really change the ratio of seats won by very much … except for the micros who can’t rely on the magical mystery tour that is ticket voting to collect votes from people who had no idea that their preferences were being “guided” that way.

    And of course it instantly solves the BTL informal problem because people can fill in as many boxes as they feel like. Most people can count from 1 to 10 or 20 without problems.

  3. ruawake –

    The senator-elect for the Liberal Democrats in NSW, David Leyonhjelm, said his party was running candidates for the Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens) as “a front, in the same way that the Nationals are a front party for the Liberals”.

    “It is a vehicle to feed preferences to the Liberal Democrats,” he said.

    If people want to vote for a micro, they should be able to vote for a micro. If lots of people vote for a micro, they should get Senators elected.

    But to do that should require that those people actually put a number next to the party/candidates’ boxes.

    That doesn’t seem unreasonable to me.

  4. [Er Barry has to herd cats or allow shooters in forests to pass a bill, seems a bit fussy to me.]

    No doubt, but it doesn’t happen because OPV was introduced.

    [What is the problem we are trying to solve?]

    Parties getting elected with 0.2% of the vote while parties with 8% go empty-handed.

    [Oh I see we are trying to make sure the very last Senate seat in every State goes to one of 3 parties, how democratic]

    A moment ago you were opposed to Barry having to herd cats to allow shooters in forests to pass a bill. Two minutes later, you’re in favour of it.

  5. Jackol@1502


    A vote “ATL” for the ALP would automatically be, as you say, 1,2,3,4,5,6 down the ALP’s list, and then your vote would exhaust. A vote “ATL”, say “1″ Greens “2″ ALP would be 1-6 for the Greens, 7-12 for the ALP, then it would exhaust.

    Unfortunately, such a vote would be informal if I understand the system correctly.

    The reform I would like to see is to allow voters to allocate their own preferences ATL as you suggest.

    I think that would see a sharp reduction in micro-parties.

  6. Not so tinfoil hat, maybe….

    [Diego Garcia, an island south of the Maldives occupied by the United States Navy, has been named as one of the many possibilities for where missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 went.

    Police are urgently investigating whether Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, the pilot of the flight, had practiced landing at the runway on the island, which is long enough to land a Boeing 777.

    Shah had a flight simulator at his home and was well-known in the pilot community for giving lessons on how to use simulators. He posted multiple videos on the subject on YouTube.

    Shah had the remote island in the middle of the Indian Ocean programmed into his simulator, raising the possibility that the plane was headed there even if it didn’t land there.

    Files that included locations such as Diego Garcia were deleted last month from the simulator, officials said in a news conference this week.

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/571057-diego-garcia-did-flight-mh370-pilot-zaharie-shah-practice-landing-at-us-base/ ]

  7. Unfortunately, such a vote would be informal if I understand the system correctly.

    We’re not talking about the current federal system. It wouldn’t be counted as informal at the moment anyway – the numbers beyond “1” are just ignored and the ticket followed.

    The system I describe is as used in the NSW upper house now, and what I think we should agitate to see for the Federal Senate.

  8. 1497

    At the 20011 election there were enough RATL (non-first preferences above the line) to elect another Green rather than Pauline Hanson*.

    There is also the option of ATL compulsory preferences above the line.

    *The Green was elected in the 20th position and another Coalition candidate elected 21st by a very narrow margin with Hanson in 22nd position. According to Ben Raue of the The Tally Room, Hanson would have been elected if she had had her name above the line, even with the Green elected.

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/9400

  9. [A moment ago you were opposed to Barry having to herd cats to allow shooters in forests to pass a bill. Two minutes later, you’re in favour of it.]

    Two different arguments William, I did not say I was opposed to anything, I was stating the obvious.

    Any system we have will throw up bizarre results.

    OPV above the line will result in ALP – LNP and major left and major right parties winning every Senate seat, a bad thing in my opinion.

    How many seats are there in the NSW LA? More than 6?

  10. Even in Crikey…

    [MH370 captain practiced Diego Garcia landings: report
    BEN SANDILANDS | MAR 19, 2014 7:09AM

    Some very strange reports about MH370 are appearing, including one claiming that police have found that the captain of the missing Boeing 777-200ER was practising Indian Ocean landing field approaches including to the US Diego Garcia military base.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2014/03/19/mh370-captain-practiced-diego-garcia-landings-report/ ]

    The truth is out there.

  11. OPV above the line will result in ALP – LNP and major left and major right parties winning every Senate seat, a bad thing in my opinion.

    If not enough people write preferences next to micro parties, they won’t get elected – why is this a problem?

  12. 1503

    None of the proposed changes would have stopped One Nation getting their Senator in Qld in 1998 and the PUP would likely have still got its Senator in Qld in 2013 and (unless stronger party name controls had been in place) probably the Liberal Democrats in NSW 2013 as well.

  13. Sandilands said last night on Rad Nat said wtte that many (most?) of the journos covering the story had no aviation expertise and were struggling to compose narratives. They were asking so-called “experts”, then making up stories which were merely opinion masquerading as facts.

  14. rua

    The better team won the game. Canterbury were far too predictable. Still they were the outsiders and almost got the money.

    Cows and Dragons are top selections but their odds are short.

    I do think the Titans have got a great chance. I’ll be buying some of them 😎

  15. [If not enough people write preferences next to micro parties, they won’t get elected – why is this a problem]

    People don’t have to preference anyone in your model.

    Put in a % cap or you get arsed at the beginning would be my solution. Don’t get 4% on yer bike.

  16. Put in a % cap or you get arsed at the beginning would be my solution. Don’t get 4% on yer bike.

    Sorry, why is this more democratic?

  17. ruawake@1518

    If not enough people write preferences next to micro parties, they won’t get elected – why is this a problem


    People don’t have to preference anyone in your model.

    Put in a % cap or you get arsed at the beginning would be my solution. Don’t get 4% on yer bike.

    Yes, I would like to see that too.

    But I would also like to see full ATL preferencing by the voter rather than by party deals.

  18. And of course, the ABC…

    [Theories about what happened to missing Malaysia Flight MH370 now span a 2 million-plus square mile area of open ocean and southeast Asian land, including one mysterious island in the Indian Ocean known as Diego Garcia.
    While aviation experts and armchair theorists continue to come up with plausible locations, the jet could have landed or crashed. Many theories have included Diego Garcia as a notable landing strip.

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/03/island-of-diego-garcia-factors-into-mysterious-malaysia-flight-theories/ ]

  19. 1521

    That way parties and independents hardly any one has ever heard of, let alone voted for, cannot get elected.

  20. That way parties and independents hardly any one has ever heard of, let alone voted for, cannot get elected.

    And my point is that if you change to OPV then the primary reason why micros with miniscule votes currently get up will be gone.

    If any candidate gets a small (<4%) first preference vote, but is preferenced (explicitly) by many voters, it seems perfectly legitimate for that candidate to be elected.

  21. BB

    Further addendum to tin foil hat theory.

    If the plane was diverted to Diego Garcia, which friendly country would be likely to announce possible debris sighting way south of there.

    Also I’d imagine US authorities would examine the simulator the pilot used and conclude there was nothing suspicious in its use or the deletion of certain files.

  22. [If any candidate gets a small (<4%) first preference vote, but is preferenced (explicitly) by many voters, it seems perfectly legitimate for that candidate to be elected.]

    Isn’t this the status quo position?

    Ooooo

    [WA Greens Senator Scott Ludlam is urging the public to vote above the line in next month’s Senate election re-run.

    The party launched its WA Senate campaign today with a flashmob – a surprise choreographed dance performance – in a Perth city mall.]

  23. Isn’t this the status quo position?

    No. Candidates are being elected without getting explicit votes, rather they are getting votes funneled to them via the ticket voting system – ie most of the votes have nothing to do with voters explicitly numbering boxes next to those parties or candidates.

  24. In NSW 21 upper house members are elected for 8 year terms at each State election (fixed 4 year terms). It is much easier to get elected to the NSW Legislative Council than it is to get elected to the Senate.

  25. Puff

    [She-Whom-Must-Remain-Nameless-on_Pollbludger.]

    I miss JULIA GILLARD, our great exPM who puts to shame Abbott. I saw some older footage last night I think of her with some seriously disabled children, she was so natural with them. Abbott can’t deal with kids, that’s cause they can smell a rat.

  26. Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard

    Yeah rua $1.55 for the Dragons and the other mob have got Carney back 😯

  27. [If the plane was diverted to Diego Garcia, which friendly country would be likely to announce possible debris sighting way south of there.]

    I considered that too, but I got sick of talking to myself (another Tinfoil symptom, I might add).

    IF – and it’s a big IF – the plane did land safely in Diego Garcia, it may have been disgorged of its passengers (and whoever was of special interest to the US) and then flown off to crash in the South Indian Ocean. 12,000 feet of waters, sharks about, scavangers… too bad, no bodies.

    Who knows? Except that DG has the capacity to land a plane like a 777 and HAS been used for clandestine purposes before. It’s whole purpose is secrecy or, if not secrecy, obfuscation.

    [Also I’d imagine US authorities would examine the simulator the pilot used and conclude there was nothing suspicious in its use or the deletion of certain files.]

    Has this happened?

    I might add that I have a “source” in geospatial affairs for a government agancy who has been pretty spot-on the money before (e.g. re. asylum seekers), who (though normally loquacious) tonight clammed up completely on me.

    “We’ll see,” was all I got when I mentioned Diego Garcia.

  28. Very nice, Psephos. Though the site of map derived from the AEC inspires me to ask how you do your normal maps, where you just have boundaries and coloured fillings and the format is always the same regardless of what country it’s from (assuming it’s not a trade secret, of course).

  29. I reckon Barry would trade 10 lower house seats for an upper house majority. I haven’t looked at the figures but it’s something like 9 out of 21 in the next election would deliver it I think?

  30. [Bushfire Bill@1536
    So what would the US do with the remainder of the 239 passengers? Surely not a one-way trip to the southern Indian Ocean?]

    I may be Tinfoil Hatted, but I’m not a soothsayer.

    One wouldn’t like to think they were… yuck.

    However, if the plane IS found in the South Indian Ocean, I bet there are no bodies or survivors.

  31. William – No secret: I locate maps at various election websites, screen-capture them, enlarge or reduce them to fit my format, then laboriously draw over the boundaries with Microsoft Paint.

  32. The Coalition won eight in 2007 and 11 in 2011. Shooters & Fishers and Christian Democrats both won one each time. So one of those two parties plus Coalition equals 21 out of 42, and both of them equals 23 out of 42.

  33. The NSW Legislative Assembly is 42 seats so 22 needed for majority:
    19 LNP
    14 ALP
    5 GRN
    2 CDP
    2 Shooters

    The 2007 Assembly saw 21 seats filled:
    8 LNP
    9 ALP
    2 GRN
    1 CDP
    1 Shooters

    So the LNP needs 11 to win an outright majority in the Assembly, which is what they achieved in 2011.

  34. Psephos@1544

    William – No secret: I locate maps at various election websites, screen-capture them, enlarge or reduce them to fit my format, then laboriously draw over the boundaries with Microsoft Paint.

    Do you use the ‘Snipping Tool’ that comes with Windows?

    You might find it more useful than ‘screen-capture’.

  35. Must be getting close to the upper house preselections in NSW. Does anybody know how many Keneally alumni are trying to come back?

    Just verity firth so far that I know of. What about David borger is he running again ?

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