BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

A slight lead in Nielsen, together with the fading effect of weak results a few weeks back, finds the Coalition squeaking ahead on two-party preferred for the first time this year.

This week’s lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, together with a particularly bad result for Labor from Essential, has given the Coalition a two-party lead in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the first time this year, albeit by the barest of margins. This represents a considerable move on last week’s result, which equally reflects the fading effect of Labor’s 54-46 and 53-47 leads in Newspoll and ReachTEL three to four weeks ago. With the electoral terrain favouring the Coalition, a fairly comfortable majority is recorded on the seat projection, with four coming off the Labor gains from Queensland since last week, together with two each from New South Wales and Victoria and one each from Western Australia and Tasmania. A new set of leadership figures is provided by Nielsen, which maintains the slowly narrowing trajectory on preferred prime minister and slightly lifts both leaders on net satisfaction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

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  1. Everything,
    [It is not compassion to jump to use a tragedy to score a cheap and meaningless political point.]
    Screw compassion. This is not about bloody compassion you thick dunderhead. It is about people doing the right thing to fulfil their contracts and duty of care, by following the red-tape that comes with the dosh for providing profoundly disabled people with a safe home to live in, with the care they need and respect they deserve, as is their human right.

    That is something your glorious leader would know bugger all about,or he wouldn’t be attacking people with disabilities in the first place.

    Compassion comes from pity, screw pity, how about rights!

  2. Puff:

    Get into a puff as much as you like, but it was AA who raised “compassion”, not me, and nothing you have written in #1602 is relevant to the issue of trying to use a tragedy to score a cheap party political point, which is what you were trying to do.

  3. Dickhead is removing regulations that stop the greedy making money off the vulnerable as per the financial planning protections. It would be an interesting exercise to tote up all the money fleeced out of people with disabilities by those shonks. I have seen it firsthand. But Abbott is going to let those sharks loose in the wheelchair swimming pool again. B’tard.

  4. And the $100 million fleeced by Mr Obeid?

    What were your views about that?

    What about the tens of thousands fleeced by Mr Thomson?

    Similar outrage and insults?

  5. 1559

    One case does not provide sufficient evidence for basing the retirement age on.

    Such has lasted longer than the lead candidate for Dignity for Disability did at the last election. Had another candidate also died, the Legislative Council election would have had to be postponed. Do you think that candidates should have to provide a medical certificate to certify that they have enough life expectancy to live out their term in enough health to serve? I think that it too restrictive.

  6. What about somebody charging the taxpayer to promote your book for personal gain?

    Yes, perfectly acceptable I suppose!

    No try hehe, good

  7. …or your partner using your taxpayer funded car to drive around Altona selling shampoo and other haircare products…..


  8. Centre@1612


    There must be some way Abbott could claim credit surely?

    Well China is our best friend, along with Japan, Indonesia and goodness knows who else. 😀

    Friends do things for you.

  9. Half-time at the footy, the Warriors lead rua’s $1.35 favourites 😆 by 8 to 6 but have scored 2 tries to 1.

    Every year they make rule changes, some silly but never fix one of the game’s biggest problems.

    Hello, 2 points for conversions that should not only be taken by the try scorer by the way, but they should be worth 1 point.

    Field goals in American football are worth 3 points whereas touch downs are worth double.

    Our field goals should be worth half as much – 2 points as well.

    Sheez, do I have to tell them EVERYTHING!

  10. [ Floating debris spotted by Chinese satellite image

    A Chinese satellite has identified another object in the Indian Ocean that could be from the missing Malaysia Airlines airliner.

    The object is about 22.5 metres long and 13 metres wide.

    Chinese ships and planes were heading towards the area on Saturday night.

    China’s embassy in Kuala Lumpur advised Malaysian authorities of the sighting late on Saturday.

    Malaysia’s acting transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein announced the finding after being handed a note during a press briefing where he expressed concern about a category one cyclone forming the Indian Ocean near Australia’s remote Christmas Island.]

  11. [But behind the scenes Sinodinos was under a lot of pressure. He was a man needing to make money, and to make it fast. The Newcastle-born Sinodinos, 57, married late in life. He was in his forties when he met his glamorous bride-to-be Elizabeth, almost two decades younger, at their Greek Orthodox Church. Sinodinos’s sedate, solid world soon disappeared. The couple rented a Rose Bay house with panoramic views of Sydney Harbour for almost $100,000 a year; leased luxury European cars; and three children followed – as did a whirlwind of social engagements]

    Read more:

  12. Murdoch Maiden Miranda putting the slipper into Artie.

    [Sinodinos’ tardy acceptance of the reality of his situation has delivered ammunition to those cynics who regard the major parties as equally reprehensible. It’s played into the hands of those who claim the last three years didn’t represent a new ethical low in public life and that it was just Tony Abbott’s aggressive “misogyny” which made politics look tawdry. It gave succour to those who say the royal commissions into corrupt unions and pink batts are politically motivated and hypocritical. It’s given Penny Wong her first taste of blood.]

  13. or using taxpayer money to;
    attend mates weddings,
    go to football and rugby matches,
    check on investment properties,
    promote your book…..

  14. Abbott’s got his instructions from Murdoch.

    I don’t regard both parties as equally reprehensible. The Liberals and Abbott in particular are a moral vacuum.

  15. And no matter how you spin it your comment was disgusting and lacking any compassion or empathy….but then you are a Liberal so its not surprising

  16. sprocket @1624

    “Abbott’s loyalty and decency meant he would do no less but it never should have reached that point.”

    Seems like Miranda is wiping Tony’s backside….. How sycophantic!

  17. Sprocket following on from your post @ 1624

    Is Miranda just plain stupid or does she think all her readers are…..

    “The fact he ( Sinodinos) renounced those riches to re-enter public life in 2011 speaks against the venality ( Corruption) implied in recent reporting of his troubles”…

    He only did this after his problems were exposed , if he were genuine he would have done it before… he thought he would get away with it

  18. BB

    Tinfoil hat alert…….

    [Homeland Security News
    Emergency landing round-up
    Boeing wins patent on uninterruptible autopilot system
    Published 4 December 2006]

    [New technology can be activated by the pilots, government agencies, even on-board sensors; not even a tortured pilot can give up control; dedicated electrical circuits ensure the system’s total independence]

    [Boeing’s is, of course, not the first autopilot technology in existence, but this one has been designed with counterterrorism first and foremost in mind. Not only is it “uninterruptible” — so that even a tortured pilot cannot turn it off — but it can be activated remotely via radio or satellite by government agencies. The system might even include senors on the cockpit door that activate the autopilot of a certain amount of force is used against it. “There is a need for a technique that ensures the continuation of the desired path of travel of a vehicle by removing any type of human decision process that may be influenced by the circumstances of the situation, including threats or further violence onboard the vehicle,” the patent application explains. To make it fully independent, the system also has its own power supply, independent of the aircraft’s circuit breakers.]

  19. [BB

    Tinfoil hat alert……. ]

    Basically, if the aims (of whomever could make the decisions) were to:

    1. Fly to the Indian Ocean,

    2. Land the plane safely but discreetly,

    3. Hanger it untilfurther notice,

    4. Act as a base for further flights out,

    … then Diego Garcia is the ONLY place all of these objectives could have been accomplished.

    Now it turns out Boeing know how to control an aircraft without input from the pilots. Whether this requires extra equipment to be installed, and how this equipment could have been instralled secretly, is another matter.

    But hey, R2-D2 just “plugged in” to the Death Star’s system and took control of even the garbage compactors. Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum injected a virus into the alien mothership in Independence Day, without even knowing the extraterrestrial code structure (much less the mnemonics for assembler for assembler language).

    So maybe there was a way. Every system has a back door.

  20. Late enough for a conspiracy theory?

    The Malaysian Airlines plane was carrying tons of gold to China.

    This gold was to support their currency, if and when, they wanted to leverage America to their will by threatening to sell off their $US holdings.

    The CIA finds out about this, takes control of the plane and attempts to fly it to Diego Garcia.

    Now for the tricky bit.

    They have to work at the planning stage whether there will be enough fuel on board to fly that far.

    Here’s the kicker!

    There are a bit less than 3.8 litres in a US gallon and a bit more than 4.5 litres in a UK gallon.

    Somehow, the CIA does not factor this in and there is not enough fuel to reach Diego Garcia.

    The plane crashes and loaded up with gold, goes straight to the bottom of the ocean.

    Well, I did say it was getting late..

  21. 1633 dyt re missing plane

    anything is possible and almost anything is believable when it comes to the schemes of the US Empire

    see my post 1632 re Whitlam anf his downfall

  22. 1633

    Is there anywhere that still measures aircraft fuel in UK gallons? Of the three non-metric nations, the USA and (I believe) Liberia use the US system and Burma uses UK gallons.

    Why would a Malaysian aircraft, flying from Malaysia to China (so metric it even uses metres for aircraft altitudes) have any fuel in gallons?

  23. Quite right dB.

    You would think they could get something right though!

    CIA have not had a win since they bumped off the two Kennedys and Martin Luther King.

  24. Counterpunch looks at the US Economic Crisis

    Can you believe it.?..1/3 of the Population of Philidelphia now lives on Food Stamps…the only aid to the poor and destitute in the USA

    The Repugnant Gov of the state ,sought to cut the number of people receiving the benefits,but it would have caused ruin to many small businesses which depend on the Food Stamps for a large part of their daily trade in many poor suburbs of this largely destitute he had to back off

  25. I went close to wetting my pants laughing when I read that link to that piece by Miranda Devine!

    [ SENATOR Arthur Sinodinos was a loyal lieutenant to Australia’s favourite Prime Minister, John Howard. ]

    He wasn’t any favourite of mine or anybody else I know. He was a cretin and still is!

    [ Abbott’s loyalty and decency meant he would do no less but it never should have reached that point. ]


    [ For a government which won its spurs on the back of what Christopher Pyne rightly calls the “sewer” of Labor politics, standing by Sinodinos a fraction too long was a devastating own goal. ]

    Blimey, eh! A Labor sewer!!!!!!!!

    [ The Liberal NSW Energy Minister Chris Hartcher stood down last year after being named in ICAC’s Operation Spicer. ]

    Blimey, eh! Even the Libs would have had to cut “that” character loose!

    [ It gave succour to those who say the royal commissions into corrupt unions and pink batts are politically motivated and hypocritical. ]

    You mean to say they’re not?

    [ The fact he renounced those riches to re-enter public life in 2011 speaks against the venality implied in recent reporting of his troubles. ]

    What? Do you mean to say he was working for them for “nothing”? Somehow I doubt it. I would thing he did very well out of his involvement with them!

    And finishing off the piece with this looks suspiciously like pointing to a Unicorn. “Quick, look over there.”

    [ Overturning the astonishingly lenient good behaviour bond handed to a paedophile who raped his own daughter, three NSW appeals court judges last week sheeted the blame home to the prosecution. ]

    Blimey, no wonder hardly anyone reads this rubbish anymore!

  26. deblonay,

    [ 1/3 of the Population of Philidelphia now lives on Food Stamps ]

    I heard that they didn’t taste too bad with a bit of tomato sauce on them. 😉

  27. deewhytony

    “CIA have not had a win since they bumped off the two Kennedys and Martin Luther King.”

    I hope you’re joking. For your sake.

  28. The murderers of the CIA

    ________ The CIA has a long hstory of overthrowing Govts of the left and installing right-wing ‘fascist Allende…and .not just in Chile and elsewhere in Latin America…but in the 1970ies in Greece where the Colonels were their chosen instrument and here of course they were undoubtedly involved with Kerr(see Pilger’s material)in removing Whitlam…and I have doubt they are involved in the Ukraine with the recent coup there

    ..,and not to believe that is to show a lack of understanding of the world
    That’s is how Empires behave…but Empires are a costly luxury for the ruling classes,and they bring financial ruin …hopefully that is well on the way in the case of the USA
    and the list goes on
    They are the cutting edge of the US Empire,and the great corpaations which exist as central part of US imperialism

    A terrible and noted example was in Uruguay a small democracy ,where in 1974 they overthrew a leftist regime…and then installed a military regime which murdered and tortured a great number of people

    Again at the same time in Argentina and Brazil,they supported vile military regimes which killed tens of thousands of leftists
    The present Govt of Uruguay recently acknowledged this and makes no doubts about the malign influence of the CIA

  29. post 1645.. I should have said”right-wing fascist favouritee like Pinochet who of course murdered Allende the Socialist President of Chile .” we later learned it ws all known to Nixon and Kissinger who approved the coup

  30. Re the war lobby in the US

    Bring on a full all out nuclear war and destroy these b*stards once and for all… as in the war lobby etc and so forth.

    … not to mention the rest of the world.

    But then I hazard to guess that the war lobby are also god botherers of the first water so they wouldn’t and don’t care.

    Too much sugar as young children I’d say

  31. deblonay

    Okay. But there is no evidence that the CIA were involved in, authorised or enacted the assassinations of JFK or MLK. The people who were responsible are well known and the evidence against them (and them alone) is substantial.

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