BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

A slight lead in Nielsen, together with the fading effect of weak results a few weeks back, finds the Coalition squeaking ahead on two-party preferred for the first time this year.

This week’s lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, together with a particularly bad result for Labor from Essential, has given the Coalition a two-party lead in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the first time this year, albeit by the barest of margins. This represents a considerable move on last week’s result, which equally reflects the fading effect of Labor’s 54-46 and 53-47 leads in Newspoll and ReachTEL three to four weeks ago. With the electoral terrain favouring the Coalition, a fairly comfortable majority is recorded on the seat projection, with four coming off the Labor gains from Queensland since last week, together with two each from New South Wales and Victoria and one each from Western Australia and Tasmania. A new set of leadership figures is provided by Nielsen, which maintains the slowly narrowing trajectory on preferred prime minister and slightly lifts both leaders on net satisfaction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

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  3. Here’s a bit of lateral thinking.
    Let’s say Fairfax goes kaput.
    It’s assets will be dirt cheap.
    Our government [sic] could buy those assets and let the ABC provide a ‘fair and balanced'[ a fair dinkum version ,not like their present farce] print news service- after all they already have a core of journos, in rural regions, nationally and globally.
    That would piss Murdoch off no end.

  4. [What gets me is how many Libs think the AWH setup is the normal way to do business. Maybe they are right and I’m the naive one. Is this company just one of many?.
    ]

    It probably has successful variations in all states but you seem to do it better in NSW

  5. Ooohh, interesting — I’ve always worked around the ‘carbon tax’ as the trigger for a DD, but wasn’t aware of this —

    [The Abbott government is on track to get its first double dissolution trigger as it reintroduces legislation to scrap the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

    The Senate rejected the CEFC abolition bill for the first time on 10 December last year, meaning the requisite three months have passed for a second rejection to create a double dissolution election trigger.]

    Where were all the ‘the government has the first half of a DD in place after the Senate rejected….’ articles? We certainly had plenty of them in the run up to Christmas – but again, focussed on the repeal of the ‘carbon tax’.

    [The bill is listed to be reintroduced into the House of Representatives again on Thursday.]

    Let’s assume it passes the HoR Thursday. It could well be rejected by the Senate by the end of March, which means that Abbott has a DD trigger in his knapsack.

    However —

    [Constitutional experts have said that any double dissolution election called before the new Senate takes effect from July would be likely to be subject to a high court challenge, and double dissolution elections also give minor parties a greater chance of election because a lower quota is required.]

    And the government’s polling isn’t that hot, either, but we’ll just ignore that little detail.

    Also, interesting —

    [The CEFC is one of the few parts of the carbon pricing package which could survive the new Senate, which sits after 30 June, with both the independent senator Nick Xenophon and the DLP senator John Madigan supporting it.]

    So if Abbott really wants to get rid of it, he absolutely has to go to a DD ASAP (to at least minimise the possibility of a High Court challenge).

    I’d say the CEFC is here to stay.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/20/double-dissolution-trigger-looms-as-abbott-government-reintroduces-bill?CMP=twt_gu

  6. MTBW

    I was meaning to say last night how outrageous the selling off of Miller’s Point is. Did you see Tanya’s speech in HoR?

    The CBD is almost unrecognisable from when I first came here in the early 80’s & the DOH areas of housing at Millers Point have retained the history of the city more intact than most. Unfortunately as I understand, it has been a long process in winkling the poor out of these areas & pursued by both sides of politics.

    Will we see protests, a resurgence of the Green Bans to stop these areas being sold off & developed? Who knows, but if there is no way of stopping it my advice is to go & have a good walk around this area so you can appreciate what Sydney was.

    I would note that a large proportion of the building stock are listed as being heritage items under the Council’s LEP which may or may not offer protection (the State can over rule local Council). Unfortunately the value of the social fabric that makes the area so unique is what is really under threat. Once it fully looses it’s working roots the area will become more or less another Disney Land of old buildings.

    http://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/map/7200_COM_HER_013_005_20120926.pdf?id=7bacf0aa-5617-4227-c07e-d8dd0b4e6a31

    http://www.legislation.nsw.gov.au/map/7200_COM_HER_014_005_20120926.pdf?id=1c1a5985-1431-4df0-9334-d04482c491aa

  8. guytaur@99

    “@lenoretaylor: Double dissolution trigger looms as Abbott government reintroduces bill http://t.co/8BodeLLOLi via @guardian”

    Haha Labor will now be able to call ELECTION NOW

    Yes – importantly Labor will be able to taunt him – that “he doesn’t have the ticker”.

    All promises to be very interesting.

  9. Rogue MP Geoff Shaw’s abortion Bill likely to inflame tensions within Victoria’s Parliament http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/geoff-shaws-abortion-bill-likely-to-inflame-tensions-within-parliament/story-fnii5sms-1226859537856 … #springst #auslaw
    8:55 AM – 20 Mar 2014
    Geoff Shaw’s abortion Bill likely to inflame tensions within Parlia…
    ROGUE Frankston MP Geoff Shaw has revealed he is putting the finishing touches on his proposed changes to Victoria’s abortion laws.

    news.com.au @newscomauHQ

  12. victoria

    I can’t imagine how awful it would be to suffer a rape and then discover that I’m carrying the monster’s child inside me. These bloody fundies have no compassion and very little imagination.

  14. Putin is going to be really worried about mesma, not –

    [ Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has not ruled out preventing Russian President Vladimir Putin from attending the G20 summit in Brisbane later this year.

    Ms Bishop said the government was considering what further steps to take after announcing on Wednesday that it would impose sanctions and travel bans on a dozen individuals over Russia’s interference in Ukraine.

    The Foreign Minister was asked whether Mr Putin would be welcome in Australia for the November summit and if the government was concerned other member nations would boycott the event if Mr Putin attended.

    “We are still deciding on further steps that we will take in relation to the G20,” Ms Bishop told Fairfax Radio. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-may-be-banned-from-g20-summit-in-brisbane-20140320-353t9.html#ixzz2wSP6gwVS

  16. lizzie

    I listened in to the jon faine program this morning. What really bothers me is middleaged men believing they have the right to dictate what women can do with their own bodies.

  18. mike

    I heard a bit of it on radio this morning it is a very interesting situation – her husband is Michael Coutts Trotter who is the Director General of the Department which is promoting this.

    Is there a link to her speech?

  22. Has anyone heard anything about this $200K donation that Rudd illegally accepted from a foreign donor without declaration?

    Can this be investigated by the privileges committee?

  23. mike

    Just got tipped of on another matter being that Cameron Murphy is wanting to run for the State seat of East Hills.

    Cameron is the son of Lionel Murphy.

    East Hills was lost for the ALP at the last State Election for the first time.

    There is a young woman wanting to nominate for seat but Cameron who I know from working in Glebe is one very smart and savvy guy.

    Could be interesting!

  24. Frodo

    Did you hear that it was labor audit who found that in Qld this must be declared within two weeks and it had not happened. Therefore the money has been refunded.

    Did you also hear that the Liberal party has refunded Sydney water, donations totalling $75,000 that it had charged them without Sydney water knowing it was for political donations. Did you also hear that Sinodinos was NSW Lib treasurer during this time as well as chairman of AWH, and had no clue.

  25. Victoria

    I think before the 2007 state election Libs went hard at Tripodi, Costa and I think Obeid.

    They were accused of being racist.

  26. Frodo

    Just to remind you Sydney water is a public entity. In other words, AWH charged the taxpayer for donations to the Liberal party

  27. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 18h
    Shorten asks the most on-point question – why Abbott appointed Sinodinos if it was now right for him to stand aside. Bishop blocks it #qt
    ]

    The answer to that question is really obvious as is the reason why Abbott won’t answer it directly. Basically it’s about the politics of the situation and the need to not have the issues around Sinodinos being a distraction from the government.

    The tactics of the government are pretty clear and so are the tactics of the opposition. The government wants to limit the fallout from Sinodinos’s time at AWH and the opposition wants to try and link others in the government to the issue.

    It’s pretty well Politics 101.

  34. Lizzie

    [I can’t imagine how awful it would be to suffer a rape and then discover that I’m carrying the monster’s child inside me.]

    Well one might imagine it, but you might still not be able to completely grasp the full impact of such a thing. I’d sooner simply take the word of someone that it would be devastating, accept their feelings, work out how to render solace and, when she was ready, good counsel.

  37. Dave

    If he wasn’t Assistant Treasurer he wouldn’t be in as much trouble coming back. You can’t have an Assistant Treasurer with a history of shady dealings.

    I’m guessing he will get another non finance portfolio if he comes back.

  38. [It’s pretty well Politics 101.
    ]

    I know you defending the govt but it is really a big admission and I think you are right the libs were not governing well not acting in the national interest simply carrying on with their lies and deceit in the interests of the libs – politics 101 liberal style.

  40. Finny on twitter

    [Wow another “runaway” by Abbott from the Press when the Qs about Uncle Arfur got hot, who would have thunk that]

  41. I see that the Minister for serial cruelty to animals is explaining to the MSM why it is inevitable that there will be serial cruelty to animals and that therefore it is OK.

  46. Whats a few hundred thousand between Chinese friends?

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-scrambles-to-unwind-200000-donation-to-rudds-campaign/story-fn59niix-1226859632963#

    [“THE Labor Party is taking urgent action to unwind a secret $200,000 donation from a Taiwanese businessman it believes was arranged in breach of electoral laws for Kevin Rudd to conduct campaign polling on the eve of the election.

    The massive donation from developer and former banker Kung Chin Yuan was paid into the then prime minister’s Griffith electorate branch bank account on September 3, allegedly without the knowledge of state Labor officials legally responsible for campaign contributions.”]

  48. I don’t believe I was defending anyone just stating the obvious. Personally I think it is an ordinary thing to dump someone just because it’s politically convenient. Having said that I think the outcome was the correct one simply because there are too many questions that require answers and some of Sinodinos’s answers so far don’t quite match up.

    On the matter of Sinodinos’s apparent lack of proper corporate governance I agree with Dio that that alone probably means he cannot come back in his old portfolio assuming he ever comes back into the ministry. I tend to agree with Shellbell that anyome associated with the Obedid’s likely means an end to political ambitions.

  49. [Does anyone know who was responsible for the contract between Sydney Water & AWH, how could it have been so badly drafted that it was open ended with all liability falling on SW.
    This dodgy contract appears to be the reason AWH obtained renewed work from State Government & SW.
    Was the original contract deliberately stuffed up?]

    I saw a reference somewhere recently to a badly worded 1992 contract that gave AWH exclusive rights to water infrastructure development in NW Sydney. That would mean that it was let under Greiner of Fahey as the Fibs held NSW from March 1988 to April 1995.

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