BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

A slight lead in Nielsen, together with the fading effect of weak results a few weeks back, finds the Coalition squeaking ahead on two-party preferred for the first time this year.

This week’s lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, together with a particularly bad result for Labor from Essential, has given the Coalition a two-party lead in the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate for the first time this year, albeit by the barest of margins. This represents a considerable move on last week’s result, which equally reflects the fading effect of Labor’s 54-46 and 53-47 leads in Newspoll and ReachTEL three to four weeks ago. With the electoral terrain favouring the Coalition, a fairly comfortable majority is recorded on the seat projection, with four coming off the Labor gains from Queensland since last week, together with two each from New South Wales and Victoria and one each from Western Australia and Tasmania. A new set of leadership figures is provided by Nielsen, which maintains the slowly narrowing trajectory on preferred prime minister and slightly lifts both leaders on net satisfaction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,655 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

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  3. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 18h
    Shorten asks the most on-point question – why Abbott appointed Sinodinos if it was now right for him to stand aside. Bishop blocks it #qt

  4. It seems the Voters not listening when the liberal party in charge, despite hidden secrecy of this government.

    Including that of the upcoming Piracy attack, and TPP Agreement.

  5. Why don’t the Libs resign and hand over to the IPA. Cut out the middleman.

    [An Israeli war veteran who once fought Hezbollah and has also worked for Republican congressman Rick Lazio is now the key adviser overseeing Kevin Andrews’ controversial push to abolish the charities commission.

    Ted Lapkin, a former research fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs, was hired by the Abbott government in January as a policy adviser on the non-profit sector.
    Behind the scenes, Mr Lapkin is pushing the government’s case to close the national charities regulator, called the Australian Charities and Not-for-profit Commission.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-andrews-policy-adviser-ted-lapkin-behind-government-push-to-scrap-charities-commission-20140319-35272.html#ixzz2wRuibrQE

  6. Another tweet by Peter van Onselen

    [Liberal MPs predicted (to me) that Bronwyn Bishop taking up the Speakership would turn Parliament into a circus…and they were dead right.]

    Re firstdogonthemoon

    Crikey’s loss, Guardian’s gain

  8. [Doc ‏@Doclach 10m
    Newton’s law for Abbott RT @StanSteam2: She’ll be apples…
    Zanetti cartoon #auspol #Sinodinos #ICAC
    pic.twitter.com/RVRXOob2n1 ]

  16. Labor got good traction with questions yesterday. Those in HOR after AS stood aside.

    Even Chris Uhlmann used the standard set for Thomson and Slipper as standards to judge AS on, was put to Senator Corman on AM this morning.

  19. The Court of Criminal Appeal sets aside a sentence that was so lenient, the victim of her father’s rapes, tried to kill herself.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/rapist-fathers-good-behaviour-sentence-bungle-overturned/story-fni0cx12-1226859612625?sv=e9fb6c3fd0d834d48c65001bd8c65327

    What was worse is that the DPP endorsed the sentencing approach so much so the Attorney General used his powers of appeal for the first time in an eternity.

  20. 2010 election 50.12 Labor 49.88 Coalition. And this result produced a ‘hung’ Parliament.

    The 50.01 Coalition 49.9 Labor shows the Coalition with 13 more seats.

    Forgive my ignorance but how does that work? Electorate boundaries, different preference flow?

  22. This email sent to about 8 of the mouthpieces currently plaguing our media in support of Sinodinos:

    Since you seem to be in the dark about this matter, all of you blindly thrashing about to find superlatives to describe Mr Sinodinos, here are some of the facts, which reflect on his integrity and/or competence and/or honesty.

    These facts pose questions about his suitability for high office. He is obligated to answer them.

    1) A small company of which he was director (AWH) passed on to a public authority (Sydney Water) the cost of donations to the Liberals

    2) At the time he was a senior office bearer in the Liberals, the receivers of the “donations”

    3) As a director and chairman of a small company (AWH) he did not know of Obeid’s substantial holdings in the company

    4) AWH exploited Sydney Water for funds to pay excessive salaries for their “employees” (Sinodinos admits to $200K for about 100 hours work)

    5) Sinodinos was hired by AWH specifically to engage with the NSW Coalition government to secure contracts with Sydney Water. He was employed specifically as a lobbyist, but failed to register as a lobbyist

    6) Sinodinos told the Senate he played no role in arranging the contracts, yet he wrote letters and attended meetings specifically about the contracts.

    All of this info comes from Counsel Assisting ICAC.

    Sinodinos’s claims of innocence, and your blind support for him is reminiscent of Clinton’s claim “I did not have sex with that woman…..” The senior Coalitionists like you, currently extolling Sinodinos’s virtues, are also taking themselves down the path of manifest unsuitability for high office.

  23. Transcript of Mathias Corman’s AM interview up — interesting the way he keeps repeating that Sinodis just a witness and not accused of anything, which begs the question — why did they cut him loose?

    As for this bit —

    [And of course, I mean if you look at the way Arthur Sinodinos very honourably dealt with this situation over the last few days compared to the way people like Craig Thomson and others hang onto their positions, ]

    The Libs keep drawing paralells between Sinodis and Thomson. Fair enough, when Thomson was just the subject of rumours and innuendo. But by the time Thomson was seriously implicated in anything, he had been cut loose, not just from any positions he might have held (which he lost early in the piece) but from the party itself.

    Again, you’d expect the media to point this out and be asking at what point Sinodis would get expelled from the party.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s3967533.htm

  24. Arrived in Thailand last night. Now on line in our Bangkok hotel. No sign of any demonstrators so far.

    Will provide an overview as I travel around.

    Off to Khon Kaen on Saturday.

    A week later we will be attending a large Buddhist “village wedding” – 400 guests plus ‘lookers on”.

    Strangely this religious wedding has no recognition in Thai law. Only an “amphur wedding” (government office) is legally binding.

    Imagine the uproar in Australia if the Registry Office was the only legally binding wedding.

  26. Atkins. Not too many on Arthur’s side.

    [Sinodinos should have stood aside – which is quite different from resigning and allows him a smooth re-entry to the ministry if he’s as free of wrong-doing as he insists – on Monday.

    It would have cleared the way for yesterday’s big red tape cutting exercise – something lost in the “Sinodinos stands down” story – and would have saved the Minister and Prime Minister two days of bad headlines.

    The extraordinary thing is that if anyone in this Government should have known instinctively what should have been done, it’s Sinodinos.

    For a decade he was John Howard’s gatekeeper, making judgment calls on ministerial survival when scandals arose.

    That Sinodinos didn’t realise or couldn’t convince Abbott shows just how tribal our politics have become.

    As well as taking no prisoners and never giving an inch, it seems you only do the right thing when you are forced to and then you ask the public for a pat on the back.

    They don’t deserve it.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/party-games-senator-arthur-sinodinos-should-have-stood-aside-earlier/story-fnihsr9v-1226859599788

  29. Chris Bowen ‏@Bowenchris · Mar 17
    Was @JoeHockey being sloppy or tricky when he misled Parliament about his own budget forecasts today? #auspol pic.twitter.com/Icj7g4IRag

    Hockey showing that Liberals not reading documents is not confined to only Abbott

  32. From the opening of Psyclaw’s italics at #72 re Sinodinos:

    [Since you seem to be in the dark about this matter, all of you blindly thrashing about to find superlatives to describe Mr Sinodinos, here are some of the facts, which reflect on his integrity and/or competence and/or honesty.]

    This can be added:
    [Documents show Paul Nicolaou, then [mid 2007] chairman of the NSW Liberal Party’s main fund-raising arm, the Millennium Forum, sought the advice of Mr Sinodinos on the letter to Mr Howard…
    [Sinodinos:”However, it would be difficult for the government to offer the land preferentially to one developer,” he advised Mr Nicolaou. ”It would be better to couch the letter in terms of advocating sale of the land and how it would be quarantined for first home owners or those of modest means. Nick would then explain how RHIC would be good at at doing [sic] achieving that quarantining”.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/arthur-sinodinos-provided-advice-to-company-on-how-best-to-lobby-former-boss-pm-john-howard-20140319-352zj.html#ixzz2wS5PRPJz

    Just casually make something up to fool the public for the benefit of his, and Howard’s, mates.

    That’s “integrity and honesty”. Not.

  36. fredex

    I don’t know if anyone remembers the outrage in the media when a media adviser drafted advice to the Victorian Minister for Planning, Justin Madden (I’m not even sure if he ever received it) suggesting that a public meeting about a development be ‘staged’.

    It would seem that that’s different…

    I think it was during Sinodinos’ time that Howard was granted the ‘mean and tricky’ moniker.

  37. guytaur

    Fairfax have been doing a fair job of reporting the govt failings. If they go down the gurgler, we will be stuck with wall to wall Murdoch

  39. Zoomster @ 86

    Wasn’t that issue in relation to the Windsor Hotel redevelopment? I think it brought the Minister undone.

  42. victoria

    Amazing how well Abbott does. Now he has a mining magnate ready to block repeal of the mining tax. That really takes political skill

  45. victoria

    Yeah I know and its actually going to be interesting how Abbott goes without Sinodinos in a position to do negotiation

  46. What gets me is how many Libs think the AWH setup is the normal way to do business. Maybe they are right and I’m the naive one. Is this company just one of many?.

  47. “@latikambourke: Arthur Sinodinos ‘let’s leave it to the Comm’ when asked if he is confident of being returned to frontbench/exonerated. No frthr comment.”

    Hmmmm not even bluff in there. Interesting

  50. [ guytaur
    Posted Thursday, March 20, 2014 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    “@KnottMatthew: BREAKING: Fairfax’s chairman is actively considering the future of Fairfax.” ]

    And so he should – all the time.

    They have been doing OK recently with digital subscriptions apparently.

    Further cuts in staff numbers and further cost cutting though may well be on the cards ?

    They said they might cease print editions at some stage also, but too soon for that ?

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