Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll strengthens the impression from last month’s result that the series may be leaning to the Coalition relative to the other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax has the Coalition leading 51-49. I’m not clear if this is based on respondent-allocated or previous election preferences, but the respective results in last month’s poll were 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition primary vote is steady on 44%, Labor is up two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 45% and his disapproval is up two to 49%, while his lead as preferred prime minister is down from 49-39 to 48-43. More to follow …

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that the poll also shows 52% support a means test for Medicare bulk billing versus 46% opposed, and the following results on what the government should do about Qantas: 30% remove foreign ownership restrictions, 20% provide debt guarantee, 3% both, 41% neither.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): After a week at 50-50, Essential Research has the Coalition back at 51-49 in front, their primary vote up a point to 43%, Labor’s down two to 36%, the Greens up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party steady at 4%. Other questions find respondents tending to oppose relaxing restrictions on the media, with 31% favouring more regulation, 15% favouring less and 36% thinking the present situation about right, while 43% are opposed to relaxing cross-media ownership laws with 29% supportive. Twenty-six per cent say they would prefer having the same party in government at both federal and state tiers against 24% who would prefer different parties and 36% who say it makes no difference. Respondents were asked if they would prefer the federal or state government to be responsible for various areas of policy, with the federal government favoured for everything except roads, regional investment and public transport.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,109 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. deblonay, regardless of whether Hitler was a Nazi, there seems little doubt that the whole Crimea anschluse was a well planned and successful Putin military operation.

    After Bosnia, he knew the EU was more Chamberlain than Chamberlain and that the US will never fight in any war where the natives had a weapon more than spears.

    It was so easy and I am sure he will be embolden to take more.

  4. Geoffrey 2040\________
    ____________Your endless russophobia…from whatever source it comes from ..is not relevant to my comments on the ancient architecture of central Moscow..

    ———you are very funny. i will not be bullied by you or your mate putin. as i said your boys own nostaglia for all things russia is INAPPROPRIATE and yes, call me russophobic if only tonight, but after looking at that standing overation in the great hall you so admire I have decided to cancel my routine scholarly excursion into st petersburg and moscow when I normally seek to convert the medieval hordes in post modern enlightenment. no apology and no prisoners mr deblonay – you are on your own here, a real disgrace, its just that no one else bothers to give your oxygen. go on now, instead of taking offence, make some, any, criticism of putin and we might all et you back into the international PB fold

  5. swamprat
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 11:11 pm | PERMALINK
    deblonay, regardless of whether Hitler was a Nazi, there seems little doubt that the whole Crimea anschluse was a well planned and successful Putin military operation.

    After Bosnia, he knew the EU was more Chamberlain than Chamberlain and that the US will never fight in any war where the natives had a weapon more than spears.

    It was so easy and I am sure he will be embolden to take more.

    –no the operation was for all ukraine not little crimea.
    putin is basically furious. let him has his moment of glory in deblonay’s exonerated great hall of the bloody tsar of all people – we all know what he is and will not forget never forget him and those scarey russian supporters. let them all suffer slowly

  6. geoffrey@2054

    Geoffrey 2040\________
    ____________Your endless russophobia…from whatever source it comes from ..is not relevant to my comments on the ancient architecture of central Moscow..

    ———you are very funny. i will not be bullied by you or your mate putin. as i said your boys own nostaglia for all things russia is INAPPROPRIATE and yes, call me russophobic if only tonight, but after looking at that standing overation in the great hall you so admire I have decided to cancel my routine scholarly excursion into st petersburg and moscow when I normally seek to convert the medieval hordes in post modern enlightenment. no apology and no prisoners mr deblonay – you are on your own here, a real disgrace, its just that no one else bothers to give your oxygen. go on now, instead of taking offence, make some, any, criticism of putin and we might all et you back into the international PB fold

    Gee you rave on with rubbish geoffrey.

  8. Deblonay@2034

    It was grand uncle otto who was the Nazi COMPTROLER of occupied France (I.e NOT Vichy France) according to William Shirer, author of Rise and Fall the 3rd Reich, and other knowledgeable sources. So, if you look at Eric Abetz’ Wikipedia entry, it is surprising to see that Abetz describes Grand Uncle OTTO’S role as being “German Ambassador to Vichy France”. I suspect this was one of Grand Uncle Otto’S appointments. But why deny the real role played in occupied France by Otto Abetz? We are not all comfortable with what our forbears did, they were products of the times they lived in. But why does Erik Abetz try and hide behind a very much watered down account of the role of his grand uncle in occupied France?

  9. the Borsche page has been ripped out of the soup book
    now where is that robyn williams american talent show skit on the russian contestant?

    i love the russian underground the saints of freedom and pussy rioters

  10. F Zammit re Russian policy

    ________
    In my comments on Rusia and Putin I have always quoted from US sources like Counterpunc..and never fromRussian ones.
    Obviously you have not read widely on this topic…because if one disregards the Murdoch tabloids one would see that a large number of US writers ,like Escobar in Counterpunch are saying the same things,as in fact I have shown here by my postings

    No less a Putin-controlled journal; than the L.A Times has virtually the same views as I have on this topic….the US Neo-cons inviolvement in the coup/the pronounced neo-fascist elements in Kiev..which the LA Times examines at length….
    if many in that the new regime are being described as fascists… it may be that they are !
    Counterpunch(US !!) comments below

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/17/russia-1-regime-changers-0/

  11. bemused

    humourless git

    i thought my rhetoric rather magnificent there … i love the vitriole here (not) but at least I try to overdo with some Bob Ellis flourish nothing like the master of course (no i am not him although have often been mistaken)

  12. Douglas et al

    [It was grand uncle otto who was the Nazi COMPTROLER of occupied France (I.e NOT Vichy France) according to William Shirer, author of Rise and Fall the 3rd Reich, and other knowledgeable sources. So, if you look at Eric Abetz’ Wikipedia entry, it is surprising to see that Abetz describes Grand Uncle OTTO’S role as being “German Ambassador to Vichy France”. I suspect this was one of Grand Uncle Otto’S appointments. But why deny the real role played in occupied France by Otto Abetz? We are not all comfortable with what our forbears did, they were products of the times they lived in. But why does Erik Abetz try and hide behind a very much watered down account of the role of his grand uncle in occupied France?]

    Does that mean that poor little nephew Eric had no choice but to join the Liberal Party?

    I mean isn’t “blood” uber all?

  13. deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 11:24 pm | PERMALINK
    F Zammit re Russian policy

    ________
    In my comments on Rusia and Putin I have always quoted from US sources like Counterpunc..and never fromRussian ones.
    Obviously you have not read widely on this topic…because if one disregards the Murdoch tabloids one would see that a large number of US writers ,like Escobar in Counterpunch are saying the same things,as in fact I have shown here by my postings

    No less a Putin-controlled journal; than the L.A Times has virtually the same views as I have on this topic….the US Neo-cons inviolvement in the coup/the pronounced neo-fascist elements in Kiev..which the LA Times examines at length….
    if many in that the new regime are being described as fascists… it may be that they are !
    Counterpunch(US !!) comments below

    —- points of view welcome but they dont write your sepia nostalgia than disguises as pro putin rationalisation – i ask again, you have no problem with this world leader??

  14. The truly interesting question Douglas is why did Eric’s parents emigrate to Tasmania within weeks of uncle ottos tragic autobahn ” accident” ? Was it indeed an accident or a princess di style accident because uncle ottos past had caught up with him and the rest of the clan decided it was too hot to remain in Germany and decided to go to the end of the world where no one would be looking for them ?

  15. ‘Grand Uncle Otto’ died how many decades ago now? Way the hell more than matter to AUstralians in 2014 wondering exactly what his nephew is cooking up in terms of IR reform.

    I get that some people like to rehash the irrelevant past, but FFS there’s a bigger picture here.

  16. Edwina StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 11:21 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh dear has he been hitting the sherry again ? …..

    ——to declare my own interests at least I am a good teatotaler of late – now can i guess if that was a requirement here the place would be fairly quiet??? oui

    this place is a little far left on matters russian

    look, the best one could say is that putin is a national socialist. but he is worse than that.

  18. Geoffrey ..
    I agree with Bemused and suggest that your try to write coherent sentences..that have a beginning,a middle, and an end…and pehaps only before you hit the bottle(or take more water with it)

  19. No problem Geoffrey , deblonay is just an old comm, he still thinks Hungary 56 and Czech 68 was justified action by the soviets to stop counter revolutionaries.

  20. deblonay

    a few hundred right wingers does not make a revolution in kiev.

    anyway, off to something creative, too many rusted on memories (and ideology) here

  21. @swamprat @2062

    Yes it seems young Grand Nephew Eric took it all to heart so much that he needed to join the local conservatives, and defend Grand Uncle Otto’S legacy. Unlike Uncle Arfur (Sinodos) who completely repudiated his Greek parents somewhat liberal views.

  23. confessions

    [I get that some people like to rehash the irrelevant past, but FFS there’s a bigger picture here.]

    Of course, that is a truism.

    But Big Pictures have never prevented humans discussing millions of little pictures.

    Often little pictures are more relevant than Big Pictures over which none of us “little people” have any control.

    And some of us are still waiting for the ALP to present a convincing truthful Big Picture.

  24. deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 11:33 pm | PERMALINK
    Geoffrey ..
    I agree with Bemused and suggest that your try to write coherent sentences..that have a beginning,a middle, and an end…and pehaps only before you hit the bottle(or take more water with it)

    —————hah hah hah you old vodka drinking sod
    i imbide only the fresh air of inspiration
    i will not take lessons from you sir in politics, history, ideology, revolution, neither the right or left, the lonely heart traveller in RUSSia, god and above all else – style. ephemeral replies to you are not worthy of coherence care or even sincerity – give your english lessons to uncle putin that unholder of civilization and opera by the black sea (how’s that – you couldn’t outwrite me you old commo)

  26. Edwina StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 11:33 pm | PERMALINK
    No problem Geoffrey , deblonay is just an old comm, he still thinks Hungary 56 and Czech 68 was justified action by the soviets to stop counter revolutionaries.

    ——–o thanks. that’s a great relief. i will spare him then and go bad to some serious …. yes writing, never drink!! life is too short for latter … talk soon!!!

  28. Es/Edwine SJ…wrong again your usual slanders
    ________________
    I have never been a member of the Communist party…for many years I was in the ALP(which from your right wing viewpoint might be much the same)

    I find it wryly amusing that you from your zionist background you seemed unfazed by the rise anywhere of a Neo-Nazi party…as is happening not only in Kiev but in many parts of Europe…notably Greece buit also in Hungary
    and elsewhere too

  29. For all that it’s coming out as a result of a corruption investigation, the killer blow for Sinner Senatordinos is probably the perception of sheer industrial grade greed. Getting yourself $200,000 (equivalent to winning the Opera House lottery, a meaningful metric for the older amongst us) for doing SFA by way of real work isn’t a good look for a government which is trying to put the kibosh on weekend and public holiday penalty rates. He’s a gift that will keep on giving for a while yet.

  31. deblonay

    [he LA Times this week looked in detail at the rise of the far right/fascists in the Ukraine…
    no Putin influence in LA I am sure
    ________________
    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-english-ukraine-neofascists-20140313,3347970,5402504.story#axzz2wPZn4APg%5D

    I have not read that LA times article but I do not think the makeup the tempoarary ruling groups in Kiev is relevant to a nasty contrived takeover in Crimea.

    I am all for self determination. I support the Crimeans, Uigyuirs, Tibetans, Catalonians, Scots etc being independent.

    I just DO NOT believe the recent “vote”in Crimea was honest.

  32. [Often little pictures are more relevant than Big Pictures over which none of us “little people” have any control.]

    Then instead of buying into deblonnay’s delusional obsession with the past, explain how the current Sen. Abetz is in any way emulating the deeds committed by his uncle. That was the implication in deblonnay’s comment.

    I’ve seen MTBW (among others) hang, draw and quarter a woman without knowing anything about her simply because she is Warren Mundine’s wife. At some point this empty-headed bullshit has to end.

    Either Abetz has done something in public office which draws reasonable analogies with his Nazi uncle, or he hasn’t. Hint: even deblonnay has dropped this subject now.

  34. Deblonay @ 2063 “F Zammit re Russian Policy”.

    What? If it’s me you’re referring to, I haven’t posted for days, and never about Russian Policy”.

  35. [Either Abetz has done something in public office which draws reasonable analogies with his Nazi uncle, or he hasn’t.]

    I dont think he actually has. But, he is a shining example of how to be a nasty and ignorant piece of tory shite regardless.

  36. confessions

    [Either Abetz has done something in public office which draws reasonable analogies with his Nazi uncle, or he hasn’t. Hint: even deblonnay has dropped this subject now.]

    I do not condemn Abetz for being a Nazi nor resposible for the actions of his Natzi forebears.

    I condemn “him”/”it” for being an extreme Right-wing Robot by some nefarious Nr No.

  37. [ But, he is a shining example of how to be a nasty and ignorant piece of tory shite regardless.]

    Yeah, because he’s a nasty, ignorant piece of Tory shite, not because he is necessarily the nephew of a Nazi.

  38. EStJ@ 2064. From my point of view, why does Eric Abetz not either leave Otto Abetz off his Wikipedia page – It was 3 generations ago, time to let it go? But if he must include his relationship to Grand Uncle Otto, then do not pretend that Otto Abetz’s major role in France between 1940 and 1945 A((roughly) was as German Ambassador to Vichy France. Why would someone 3 generations removed want to obfuscate the historical record? After discovering this obfuscation recently on a routine Internet search, I now think that senator Abetz has little integrity. You DO NOT MISLEAD PEOPLE WHO ARE RESEARCHING THE HISTORICAL RECORD. Especially when it was three generations ago. Before I discovered the misleading historical record, I thought people were having a bit of a free shot at Abetz, because of
    unfortunate family ties. Now, after seeing the historically misleading stuff, I think he is trying to use the family tie to his advantage in sone way

  41. George Brandis is really getting his teeth into the attack on red tape. Apparently, there’s a lot of undesirable punctuation, collocation and even the occasional spelling error

    http://trib.al/7cciPir

    That’s why he gets the big bucks. 😉

  44. davidwh

    PB forums (or fora, as Fran prefers) are always wide ranging geographical and temporal.

    We were discussing the LIberal Party, so 1930’s seems relevant, does it not?

  45. swamprat
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 11:48 pm | PERMALINK
    deblonay

    [he LA Times this week looked in detail at the rise of the far right/fascists in the Ukraine…
    no Putin influence in LA I am sure
    ________________
    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-english-ukraine-neofascists-20140313,3347970,5402504.story#axzz2wPZn4APg

    I have not read that LA times article but I do not think the makeup the tempoarary ruling groups in Kiev is relevant to a nasty contrived takeover in Crimea.

    I am all for self determination. I support the Crimeans, Uigyuirs, Tibetans, Catalonians, Scots etc being independent.

    I just DO NOT believe the recent “vote”in Crimea was honest.
    ————— yes. getting serious, you are correct. i am not sure dismantling of national states what do you think? nor the inscribing of regions around old tribal or linguistic majorities, even if in the end such blocs do get better participation in any electoral system. but yes whatever the formula decentralisation of much decision making seems way to go. to be honest, from what one can tell what crimea was – an autonomous self governing region – seems to have been that in many ways.

  46. davidwh
    Posted Thursday, March 20, 2014 at 12:05 am | PERMALINK
    Is this PB or did I stumble into a 1939 forum?

    —–well said. on the other hand some moments here might just reflect parts of the international mindset esp those into the kremlin sanctum of romantic nationalism. those mad ruskites. i mean when america transgresses as it often does it can be hoisted on the petard of its own constitutional ideals but russia and its poor folk as a western country have never had an epoch or foundation of such aspiration rights or freedoms.

  47. geoffrey

    Scotland has always been a national state, older than most others in Europe. It’s (unelected) parliament joined itself with the Westminster one, in 1707. It was a combination of two nations, not the extinguishment of one.

    If Scotland votes for independence in September it will just be withdrawing from a Union that no longer serves it’s interests.

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