Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll strengthens the impression from last month’s result that the series may be leaning to the Coalition relative to the other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax has the Coalition leading 51-49. I’m not clear if this is based on respondent-allocated or previous election preferences, but the respective results in last month’s poll were 51-49 and 52-48. The Coalition primary vote is steady on 44%, Labor is up two to 35%, and the Greens are steady on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 45% and his disapproval is up two to 49%, while his lead as preferred prime minister is down from 49-39 to 48-43. More to follow …

UPDATE: James J in comments relates that the poll also shows 52% support a means test for Medicare bulk billing versus 46% opposed, and the following results on what the government should do about Qantas: 30% remove foreign ownership restrictions, 20% provide debt guarantee, 3% both, 41% neither.

UPDATE 2: Full tables here.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): After a week at 50-50, Essential Research has the Coalition back at 51-49 in front, their primary vote up a point to 43%, Labor’s down two to 36%, the Greens up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party steady at 4%. Other questions find respondents tending to oppose relaxing restrictions on the media, with 31% favouring more regulation, 15% favouring less and 36% thinking the present situation about right, while 43% are opposed to relaxing cross-media ownership laws with 29% supportive. Twenty-six per cent say they would prefer having the same party in government at both federal and state tiers against 24% who would prefer different parties and 36% who say it makes no difference. Respondents were asked if they would prefer the federal or state government to be responsible for various areas of policy, with the federal government favoured for everything except roads, regional investment and public transport.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,109 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 41 of 43
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  4. Jeez, what is it with Liberals in govt? They barely see out the first 6 months of office before losing ministers and front benchers to scandals of one kind or another. It happened with Howard and now has happened with Abbott.

  5. And, for all those who query where Fran may have got her unique style of commentary and inimitable opinioning, she basically channels David Frost from 1972. But, remember, David frost was a satirist. The jury is out on Fran.

    Ladies and Gentlemen.

    I feel the time has come for me to speak out.

    For I believe, as many of us believe, that we will, all of us as we have before, and we can, nay must, once again if we are to be and — make no mistake about it — we cannot afford not to be.

    For, and let us be perfectly clear about this, in the past few months we have proved without and beyond any doubt, that we do.

    And we will continue to do strongly, firmly,and gently, as we have in the past, but, and this is a big but, now at the same time — and this is a question only you can answer — shall we be looking FORWARD, as we do as we all do, indeed as it is our duty to do, at this time of decision, or not?

    That is the question you must ask yourselves today.
    But I hear you saying, ah, if only it were that clear,
    And I know, and here I must disagree for a moment, where would the country be, without this great land of ours.

  7. GG

    [Corruption is already illegal and punishable.]

    It should be illegal for ex-Minister of the Crown getting lucrative jobs in private corruptions, sorry companies.

    All lobbyists, who lets face it, are trying to get a preferential economic advantage (i.e. money) against the public interest, should be controlled and all their activities fully public.

    It may be true that the silly Senator Nash honestly confused her role as Assistant Minister for Health with being the Minister for Big Sugar and Big Fat. Or it maybe because she saw herself as there to further the interests of Big Sugar and Fat and the fact that she employed Big Sugar and Big Fat’s leading lobbyist as her chief of staff was probably coincidental.

    The fact that such a person should be an MP much less a Minister horrifies me.

  8. confessions

    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Jeez, what is it with Liberals in govt?
    ==============================================

    It’s the fault of;

    Corrupt Unions

    The Carbon “tax” (sic)

    The MRRT

    ALP

    Indonesia

    Asylum seekers

    SPC Holden Ford Toyota

  9. Darren Laver…re Red Square
    ________________
    Though I don’t speak Russian ..it was explained to me some years ago on a visit to Moscow that”
    Red” in Russian is from the same root as Bolshoi which means “big” as in the famous ballet theatre(which lies just beyond the end of Red Square in another square.)..and as in “Bolshevik”… also meaning large or majority (in the early political sense)

    and the Square itself IS vast,with that uncredible skyline of the Kremlin an the domes of the great churches and many other major buiildings including St Basil’s Church making it perhaps the most astonishing city centre of any great cities I have ever visited

    …imho ..Patis is incomparable with it’s great structures in it’s centre and around the river …,and New York is great in a very different way..but .I can’t think of any place quite like the centre lof Moscow,which on first sight catches ones’s breath in amazement at it’s vastness.and of the lighting in the night sky

    ands nothing actually notorious about it…historic perhaps

    That great hall …St Georges Hall..seen on tonight’s news when Putin spoke..is open to the public …as part of a tour of the Kremlin and is quite remarkable…
    as lavish as anything in Versailles or Potsdam…the Czars set out to impress…and a vast renovation has restored it…and the Bolshoi Theatre I am told by a recent visitor there..which is every bit as magnificent

    Oddly the Russians have two imperial capitals…for in a different way St Petersburg is just as vast and grand and opulent…and both have very sobering and awful reminders of WW2…the vast cemetery in St Petsrburg with the mass graves of over 3/4 million who died…mostly of hunger during tthe 2 year Nazi seige 1941-43

  11. Greensborough Growler 2005

    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Did Abbott or Hockey write that drivel for you?

  12. swamprat,

    You seem to need someone to give you a hug ( or a donation)

    All that angst and anger.

    People can pursue their interests in any way as long as they do it legally.

    Bold “theyorta’ assertions really are the refuge of a feeble mind.

  13. In lay persons terms, on what basis did AWH charge Sydney Water for services (which they then funneled thru to the Lp). Exactly what services did AWH provide.Sydney Water presumably had checks and balances in their payments systems… Why didnt these pick up the payments to AWH?

    This is mind boggling. Admittedly, I am from Victoria, not NSW.

  14. AA,

    You like to embarrass yourself from time to time. This is one of those occaisions.

    Read the start of the post for the source.

  15. GG

    [swamprat,

    You seem to need someone to give you a hug ( or a donation)

    All that angst and anger.]

    That is possibly true: the hug not the donation. 🙂

  16. AA:

    It comes down to poor judgement at the end of the day, coupled with a massive sense of entitlement, and that these people are invariably in positions of authority or power at the time.

    I’ve lost count of the number of times a so-called small government conservative rails publicly against taxpayer-funded waste only to be found later to be massively rorting the taxpayer for his/her own personal benefit.

    A bit like fundies who soil their panties at the idea of same sex relationships only to be caught with their trousers round their ankles nailing the butler in the broom closet.

  17. Re Sinandinous
    _________
    I first read of him when he left Howard’s office in Howard’s last term as PM…and one of the commentators ..perhaps O”Brien …saying later that Howard’s office wasn’t functioning as smoothly or as cunningly as when Mt Sin. was there…a masterly operator I think and one that Howard must have regretted lossing…and thus destined for a top job when the Libs came back to power…now for him..alas ???

    funny to think that Obeid and Tripodi and that multi-cultura thugish band of right-wing NSW ALP bandits caught him in their net too

    I thinkj Sin must have gone off to make some BIG and EASY money

  18. GG

    I find the “structural” corruption and the obvious conflict between being a Minister for Health responsible for preventative health (is that true?) and actions against health outcomes mind boggling.

    But it has passed with little interest from the ALP/Greens/Media.

    That makes me angry, futile as it is.

  20. Rossmore. Exactly.

    What the hell and how and why is it that these ‘entities’ are able to position themselves and their self awarded amazing largesse.

    Scratched head on my part. WTF.

  21. Just curious as to why the Rightbots are not here tonight.

    Is there more to Artie’s behaviour than we hoi poloi are allowed to know?

  22. [A bit like fundies who soil their panties at the idea of same sex relationships only to be caught with their trousers round their ankles nailing the butler in the broom closet.]

    Graphic!

    But all too often apt.

  23. I saw Erica Betz, the Tas Senator on 7:30 tonight. ( I never watch 7:30, it was an accident. True)

    I thought whoever created such an Automaton showed awesome talent but the voice is a dead giveaway. It is not human at all.

  25. [Ladies and Gentlemen.
    I feel the time has come for me to speak out.
    For I believe, as many of us believe, that we will, all of us as we have before, and we can, nay must, once again if we are to be and — make no mistake about it — we cannot afford not to be.
    For, and let us be perfectly clear about this, in the past few months we have proved without and beyond any doubt, that we do.
    And we will continue to do strongly, firmly,and gently, as we have in the past, but, and this is a big but, now at the same time — and this is a question only you can answer — shall we be looking FORWARD, as we do as we all do, indeed as it is our duty to do, at this time of decision, or not?
    That is the question you must ask yourselves today.
    But I hear you saying, ah, if only it were that clear,
    And I know, and here I must disagree for a moment, where would the country be, without this great land of ours.]

    You are on fire tonight GG.

    But while Fran might be as verbose as the above, I am not sure her comments are that vacuous.

  26. Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 8:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Apparently Crimea has returned to the “motherland”… With Putin organising a photo op bash on the infamous Red Square.

    Where is Rudd when you need him? Wasn’t he going to solve this crisis?
    —————-everyone protested rudd again and he didn’t get to try otherwise this debacle would not have happened

  27. First time watching 730 since Sales went on mat leave. This new host is like a little terrier with the ghastly Abetz. Is she normally like this?

  30. OK sorry davidwh.

    I was not informed that Rupert called you to a Love-in.

    I assume it was to discuss the awesome views of Lord Rupert on the lost Malaysian Plane or was it about the utter nonsense of scientific truth (or any truth) that undermines corporate profits?

  31. it is clear why ukrainians just so worried esp about president staying on a yet – the plan as putin revealed half cocked was complete invasion with lay down president and run down troops – he only got to roll out plan in crimea – let him have his moment of pumped glory and the shit russians who follow him their day in the sun because all world including chinese knows what putin was on about – its downhill now.

  32. [Graphic!]

    But realistic. Think all those UK Tory MPs caught in sex scandals having publicly shaken their fists and their heads at any behaviour they deemed to be immoral.

    I keep waiting for Sen. Bernardi to be tripped up by his OTT statements about same sex relationships and so-called ‘traditional’ families.

  33. Another US foreign policy disaster
    __________________________”
    Mike Whitney a US academic and writer for Counterpunch” looks at the aftermath of the US inspired coup in Kiev and sees it as just another of the chain of disasters over which the US has presided ion recent times…Iraq/Libya and now Ukraine.

    ..with a neo-fascist regime ,and a ruined economy and it’s people soon to be lashed by the Banksters of the IMF..who will give them the Greek Treatment…while all the US efforts will be seen as ineffectual and counter=productive…and to add a touch of low comedy…he has the assistance of Julie Bishop !!!!

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/18/obama-backs-down-on-crimea/

  35. o no deblonay our in house apologist for the putin bleitzeig against the neo con neo nazi american led insurrection seeking to impose business interests on the deluded ukrainain people – he is online, i overlooked

    anything but russian nostalgia mr deblonay it is so … ah, inappropriate

    of course mr putin had no ambitions over annexation and control over ukraine … a rare us foreign policy success one might say

  36. 2034

    Probably because his great uncle died the year he was born and he is unlikely to be an adherent of “national socialism”.

  39. [why doesn’t someone ask Arbetz about his uncle Otto !! and Otto’s old friends]

    Probably because most Australian voters are more interested in what he’s doing as federal IR minister TODAY than what his long-dead relative did decades ago.

  40. deblonay — you forgot to mention the memorable day when stalin attended to end of ww2 celebration in red square and in the crush 500 died … or the towers in back street when people jumped or pushed during stalins earlier triumphant rule — ah the memories of downtown moscow

  41. Inside the Vic Libs
    ______________
    This AM on Faine’s program..ABC … Lord Mayor Doyle gave a real blast against the right to Life storm-troppers who harrass women patients attending an abortion clinic in East Melbourne
    He plans he said to see if he can to use the new legislation” to
    move” on the R to Lifers who make the life of woman patients there ,a misery
    Interesting in view of the bitter controversy inside the Libs over Abortion in Vic at present
    Doyle being one of the” small l” Liberals

  42. [ But realistic. Think all those UK Tory MPs caught in sex scandals having publicly shaken their fists and their heads at any behaviour they deemed to be immoral.]

    Oh yes, and I think it is quite common in the US too — a Republican Senator was caught trying to solicit some sort of sexual encounter in an airport restroom. He was previously a known “family values” politician and all round homophobe.

    Warren Entsch also noted that those who protest too much… But following that comment Bernadi was “consulting his lawyers”, not sure what came of that.

  43. Greg Hunt … What a weak disingenuous politician … Trotting out the usual vacuous speaking points on Lateline … His plan for endangered species….

    A three point plan … Wow
    A war on feral pigs … Double wow
    A 15000, emphasise 15,000, Green Army of young Australians

    You couldn’t make this up….

  46. AA,

    [Jeez, what is it with Liberals in govt?
    ==============================================

    It’s the fault of;

    Corrupt Unions

    The Carbon “tax” (sic)

    The MRRT

    ALP

    Indonesia

    Asylum seekers

    SPC Holden Ford Toyota]

    The tides and currents have got to be up there as well.

  48. Geoffrey 2040\________
    ____________Your endless russophobia…from whatever source it comes from ..is not relevant to my comments on the ancient architecture of central Moscow..

    All the great cities of Europe have terrible events in their past…..what about the grandeur of Vienna,or the great square of Munich,or the splendid vistas of Berlin and the Brandenburg Gate,and the Place de Concorde in Paris…all summon up a whole world of memories

  49. Acerbic Conehead
    Posted Wednesday, March 19, 2014 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
    AA,

    Jeez, what is it with Liberals in govt?
    ==============================================

    It’s the fault of;

    Corrupt Unions

    The Carbon “tax” (sic)

    The MRRT

    ALP

    Indonesia

    Asylum seekers

    SPC Holden Ford Toyota

    The tides and currents have got to be up there as well.

    —–+ schoolteacher and school administrators + state ed departments
    red tape
    regulations
    more red tape
    the greens
    demonstrators
    lefties
    baddies in syria
    dodgy greedy no genuine asylum seekers
    pre school teaching assistant activists

  50. Sinodinos gets $2,000 an hour working for AWH.

    Person working in hospitality gets around $15.50 an hour.

    And he, along with the rest of his Govt is after your working entitlements.

    Only a moron would not see the injustice in this

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